Lawyer Ron

[Stevie Belmont]

This is a horse that I have ben impressed with. As a 3 year old he has developed very nicley. Huge win in the Risen Star, earning a big speed figure. Another strong performance and you will hear even more on this guy. I already think he is one of the top 3 year olds in the country. Will contest the Southwest Stakes tomorrow at Oaklawn Park. In what will be his first class test up till now. Has a a running style that will have him in the race from an early point. Look foward to him running.

[Figman]

LAWYER RON won The Southwest Stakes over STEPPENWOLFER by about 3/4 of a length in an unremarkable race. The time for the mile was 1:40 off a 1:13-4 three-quarter mile time.

[OTM Al]

I saw good things about him in the win and bad things. The good was the way he dug in in the stretch to hold the win. The bad was that he was almost uncontrolable into the backstretch. He doesn't learn some control, and one would worry about that as he has more racing experience than the other top runners, he'll be burnt by the 1/8th pole as other strong horse go running by.

[GMB@BP]

LAWYER RON won The Southwest Stakes over STEPPENWOLFER by about 3/4 of a length in an unremarkable race. The time for the mile was 1:40 off a 1:13-4 three-quarter mile time.

how was it unremarkable?

[Figman]

Slow pace, failed to run straight on the backstretch, pedestrian last quarter, did not gallop away like in his previous race.

[JustRalph]

That time seems slow as hell to me...........I watched the race and it looked like they were running better than that..........???

[GMB@BP]

i said unremarkable as it was not my opinion, and then to read time was slow as heck, with a slow pace, well I am wondering if I watched a different race.

first call of 23 is way above par for the meet, and a half of 48 is legit. this track has been playing slooooooow.

now the final time off 140 is a tenth slower then gouldings green ran the race before (in a 1/16 longer event) and he is a stake horse who is capable of big figures. the comparison to me tells me the race was quick early, middle and late. throw in the fact the track was playing to closers (though the last was a wire job as well), heck all meet it has, and if you ask me it was a great effort.

now the fact he was pulling is not the best but heck its early and the horse can flat out run

[Lasix1]

Oaklawn is still suffering from two weeks of dismal weather and the track today was very slow. It rained last night and part of this morning, but by post time it was officially listed as "good." That was generous. The times were slow all day and even though the track condition was up-graded to "fast" by the time the Southwest went off, if you had seen it from the rail you would realize that it still had a lot of moisture in it.

I'll be anxious to see Lawyer Ron's Beyer. The bettors had it figured out, sending LR off at 1/2, but there were some very good horses in that race including 2nd place finisher Steppenwolfer.

To be sure, this year's edition of the Southwest wasn't last year's spectacular performance by Afleet Alex, but GMB@BP's assessment that Lawyer Ron can flat out run is right on....

[Cesario!]

I've been skeptical of Lawyer Ron since the beginning, but today, I became a convert. I typically judge horses based on my visual impressions, and I was left feeling very impressed with him. I still don't feel the same way about him as I do about either Barbaro, Bob and John, or Brother Derek, but I think that, after today, he's in the same sentence. I thought it was a very good field with lots of underrated horses today.

This is going to be a great Derby.

[JustRalph]

I didn't think it looked as good as some of you do. But.........time will tell......

I still don't like the time. I am going to have to take a look at the chart for some other races on the card................

[Cesario!]

I didn't think it looked as good as some of you do. But.........time will tell......

I still don't like the time. I am going to have to take a look at the chart for some other races on the card................

I should also add that I was/am a huge Music School fan. I think points always go to the conqueror in ths instance.

[rastajenk]

I was hoping for more out of Music School. He had a nice run through the turn, though, so maybe it was a decent learning experience. I think Lawyer Ron will burn a lot of folks' money in the future as a horse that has peaked too soon. I could be way wrong, but that's my prognostication.

[Bruddah]

Lawyer Ron will have run too much by the time of the Ky Derby in May. (JMHO)

[depalma13]

To be sure, this year's edition of the Southwest wasn't last year's spectacular performance by Afleet Alex, but GMB@BP's assessment that Lawyer Ron can flat out run is right on....


Was that the spectacular performance where Afleet Alex hung out in his stall and ate some hay?

Sorry, I couldn't resist, just having a little fun. Afleet Alex wasn't in last year's Southwest Stakes.

[TravisVOX]

Lawyer Ron, in my opinion, has run his last good race. Yesterday was a sign he's on the down-swing I think.

[TravisVOX]

I think MUSIC SCHOOL was over-hyped too. He could still develop into a nice, serious horse but to hail him as top notch off the OCL win seemed a bit much to me.

[Lasix1]

Was that the spectacular performance where Afleet Alex hung out in his stall and ate some hay?

Sorry, I couldn't resist, just having a little fun. Afleet Alex wasn't in last year's Southwest Stakes.

How could I have forgotten! You're right of course. I was thinking of the Arkansas Derby. Must have been brain plaque brought on by that damned alumunum cookware we've been using all these years. That great pretender, Greater Good won last year's Southwest.

We'll see about Lawyer Ron, but setting aside the soft track and resultant slow times, it was still a visually spectacular performance. :)

I agree with the doubters about Music School though. Having seen him twice now, I just don't think he's a serious Derby contender.

[Sundown]

He has run a lot, the weather last week may have hurt, Rebel is March 18th; only 3 week layoff. I'd expect him there but maybe not a winning work, just a workout to keep in shape. Then the Arkansas Derby April 15th, bring him back for that effort.

So far, I like his chances. We'll see.

[classhandicapper]

I saw things to like and things to not like.

I think it's going to be tough to get an exact guage on the speed figure because the track was a little wet and probably changing speed all day. If I had to guess I'd say a Beyer figure in the low to middle 90s. We'll see what various figure makers give him.

On the flip side, I think the pace was on the quick side and I don't think the track was especially kind to speed that day. So the effort was probably better than the small winning margin against a moderate quality field indicates.

The thing I didn't like was that he got a little rank. I don't think he has much of a chance at 10F in a field that's likely to have at least a couple of other quality speeds if he can't relax. Since this is the first time he acted that way and the jock had sort of urged him hard to get the lead early before fighting him later, I think we can excuse it a little. But if he doesn't relax next time, I hope he wins because I'll be happy to bet against him in the Derby.

[Valuist]

On HRTV yesterday they said Lawyer Ron got a 93 Beyer for the Southwest. I came away more impressed with Steppenwolfer, who's been impressive in his last few races. The track was very deep at OP on Saturday but the opening half (48 and change) was still slow considering that in the other mile race, a 5000 claimer (the 4th) they went 48 1/5 to the half.

[Lasix1]

On HRTV yesterday they said Lawyer Ron got a 93 Beyer for the Southwest.
That's about right. The Little Rock newspaper is saying that Lawyer Ron earned a 95 Beyer for the Southwest. I agree Steppenwolfer was impressive in defeat.

[OTM Al]

Steppenwolfer looked decent, but he still didn't get by. Reminds me of Bandini last year as he couldn't get by either. Didn't jump on Bandini's wagon and not about to jump on Steppenwolfer's either off a race that to me raised more questions than it answered about the top 2. Only question that it did answer is that Music School ain't ready for the big time yet.

[Stevie Belmont]

I thought this Southwest Stakes was very similar to 2004's race. Smarty Jones had won the Count Fleet by many lengths, then had over month off and kind of looked like Lawyer Ron did Saturday, not overly impressive. Well i'm not comparing these two horses at all based on ability. One is was much better and faster at the time of the race. Bottom line, don't think Lawyer Ron was fully tight fot the race, nor would the connections want him to fully cranked for the win. There are bigger objectives down the road. I would not really make a fair assement of what we saw on Saturday. He did win and help of Steppenwolfer, so that is a postive in itself. We will see in future races, as competiton stiffens, how good he is. I also firmly believe there is room for improvement of his Southwest. Time will tell.

[DerbyTrail]

Up now on Derby Trail: http://www.groups.yahoo.com/group/derbytrail

SOUTHWEST RECAP: Lawyer Ron Works for One; Steppen Up...

They finally ran the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Saturday after a week’s delay, but all the extra seven days was able to do was postpone further speculation on Lawyer Ron’s prospects as a Kentucky Derby candidate.

Bob Holthus’ son of Langfuhr pushed his “authentic” dirt record to 5/5-0-0 and his bankroll to nearly $450,000 with yet another end-to-end victory on a 4th different surface. This win was far less authoritative than his previous four scores however, as Dan Pietz’ Steppenwolfer was within three-quarters of the chestnut speedball at the finish.

Indeed, the victory only raised more questions about how the admittedly-nice Lawyer Ron could sustain his current form, and keen style, through starts in the Rebel next month and AK Derby in April before the first Saturday in May. Among the issues raised:

1.) Was the 1:40.0 mile final running time strictly a function of OP’s torpid surface?

2.) Can Lawyer Ron emulate sire Langfuhr’s Canadian TC Champ Wando and get 10f.. or more?

3.) Can he be as rank as he was Saturday and be expected to go the 10 panels at Churchill in what would be his 7th start in 5 months?

The slow running time appears to be partly a function of a very tiring Hot Springs surface that has seen few mile performances below 1:40 recently. A day earlier, 4+ OC/Alw (OP11) runners got the 8f in 1:39.3, as did 3yo stakes fillies in the Martha Washington (OP10). 3-5yo MSW runners went in 1:40.2 and 1:40.4 a day before (OP6) and after (OP4) the Southwest.

The time may not mean a whole lot, but the fractions do. Lawyer Ron got the Southwest mile in these splits:

:23.1, :24.4 (:48), :25.3 (1:13.3), :26.2 (:52 half ), 1:40.0

In other words, Lawyer Ron simply does not appear to have an appropriate running gear to do well as the races lengthen. The Derby is won with measured, even distribution of speed: those five 24 second quarter miles we talk about every spring...

Steppenwolfer on the other hand, ran more evenly and a race virtually identical to his allowance victory three weeks earlier:

2/25: :25.1, :24.0 (:49.1), :25.1 (1:14.2), :25.3 (50.4 half), 1:40.1
2/03: :24.4, :25.1 (:49.0), :25.3 (1:14.3), :24.4 (;50.2 half), 1:40.2

(More on Pietz’ increasingly interesting Aptitude son in a minute...)

As a son of Langfuhr, there’s really no telling how far Lawyer Ron can go. While Langfuhr himself was best sprinting, as a son of sire of sires Danzig, he could pass on any kind of attribute. In progeny Mobil, Wando and Imperial Gesture, Langfuhr has gotten wins and black type performances at 10f on dirt and 12f on turf. Godolphin’s Imperial Gesture won the Beldame, Gazelle and UAE Oaks, all 9f, balancing her sire’s speed with just enough Tom Rolfe-Ribot line staying power from dam Honor an Offer.

The powerhouse Schickendanz operation north of the border produced back to back stars in Mobil and Wando, with the latter annexing the Canadian Triple Crown despite coming from a RAN line mare. Mobil too hailed from a sprint-inbred mare (Nasrullah) but was able to sustain his runs beyond 8f.

We simply won’t know how far Lawyer Ron can go until he tries. But as foreshadowed above, Bob Holthus is going to have to figure out how to have pint-sized John McKee give Lawyer Ron his “head”, allowing him to run free while at the same time saving something for the late challenges. Last year Holthus had a Derby candidate in Greater Good that was too slow at the start of his races... This year it looks like he has one that’s too fast.

Meanwhile, Robert and Lawana Low’s Steppenwolfer looks like he may be engaging in the start of a ‘magic carpet ride’ for the same connections that gave us the real nice Real Cozzy. Pro gambler Frank Mermenstein, close friend of the Lows and Pietz, told us before the race that the Arkansas native trainer had no expectation of winning the Southwest and was taking plenty of time with the son of Aptitude.

Although the grey has been taking a page from his dad’s book by coming from off the pace, he did break his maiden in his second start at Aqueduct going 7f and running :23.1, :45.3, 1:10.4 splits before stopping the clock in 1:24.2. He is not a one-run closer. His Thoro-Graph sheet figures show healthy development, and he is one of the few colts on the Derby Trail that can be projected to keep improving while knowing that he is likely to get 10 panels happily. More on Steppenwolfer after we talk to Pietz later this week.

Finally, though the Farish-Howard hype horse Music School ran a mediocre 4th in just his third career start, something Holthus said Saturday makes it wise to forgive the effort and write it off as a learning experience. Holthus told DRF that he wanted McKee to get away from the field early to “pick the part of the track we wanted to be on”.

As a longtime Oaklawn conditioner, that would indicate that Holthus recognized that certain paths on the strip were deadly, and the rail was likely one of those spots. It was there that Robby Albarado had Music School, and it could be that the A.P. Indy son was up against it in every way conceivable. He had not been pointed to the stake to begin with, and only entered upon the rescheduling of the event and after Howard could not get him into another allowance. He shouldn’t be dismissed off this performance.

Still to come this week, the revised Top 30, and advance news as we get to the huge Fountain of Youth-Santa Catalina weekend!

Steve

[JustRalph]

Torpid! Great word....Nice Piece..........

[GaryG]

Torpid! Great word....Nice Piece..........That sure as hell is a great word...I need to be able to work it into a converstion somehow. By my figures the race was slightly faster that par at the 6f call and average otherwise. LR sure won't come up the Derby short, that's for sure.

[Stevie Belmont]

Big win today in the Rebel. Showed a whole new dimension in his ability to rate. I love the fact he was able to sit back off the pace and make a solid move to win. This is the type of style you want to see in Kentucky. I don't see any reason why won't continue to improve. He is the most seasoned three year old in the country right now. Top 3 year old in the land right now in my opinion. Only thing I did not like was Mckee using his stick more then he had to. Horse is solid any way you look at it.

[Cesario!]

WHO IS THIS HORSE? WOW. Maybe just passed Brother Derek on my board.

It's looking like it's going to be a great derby, gentlemen (and ladies.)

[depalma13]

Had him third on my list going into yesterday. He moved up to #1. Point Determined made a big jump too. I give A.P. Warrior credit, he dug in when PD came charging, but PD made a great run after a very bad trip.

[GMB@BP]

that southwest stakes sure was a miserbale effort :D

[OTM Al]

Well, the Southwest was still an effort to be concerned about until he could prove that he wasn't going to be rank early. It looks as if they have corrected the problem, but the fact that this race was good doesn't magically make the last race better.

[Valuist]

Supposedly the Beyer for the Rebel was a 92. Not 100% on that but I saw that on another board. That doesn't bode well if that 92 is legit.

[OTM Al]

A 92 for Laywer Ron and a 101 for A.P. Warrior. It really doesn't sound right does it?

[Valuist]

No it doesn't. I just looked up the OP races. There were three 1 1/16 mile races at OP last Saturday. I gave Lawyer Ron a 103. I take back what I said earlier. While I think Sayhellotolarry can move forward, it will take a pretty big jump to get to a 103.

[Lasix1]

Valuist's assessment seems correct to me.

The track was weird on Saturday. The early races were run on a fast track and the weather gradually deteriorated as the day went on. It started raining harder about 25 minutes before the Rebel went off. I would think the variant for the last two races on the card (which included the Rebel) would be quite different than earlier in the day--a nightmare for variant makers.

[DerbyTrail]

Well, the Southwest was still an effort to be concerned about until he could prove that he wasn't going to be rank early. It looks as if they have corrected the problem, but the fact that this race was good doesn't magically make the last race better.

Oaklawn is a deep, unique surface. (Deep and unique as opposed to Tampa, a deep, BIZARRE surface..) A Hot Springs resident posted somewhere yesterday that over the years he's seen many a good horse come in and have to work really hard to get over it first time and then improve over it in subsequent starts. (i.e. Smarty?) That also explains how certain local horses have had success in this series historically versus "better" horses that ship in. (ala Cherokee King (?) a couple years back..)

I'm inclined to not care about the time/figure and rely on visual impression and splits. Saturday's run by Ron featured a "Derby winning" move, and he went the fractions in :24.3, :23.3, :24.4 and :24.3/:06.2 (:31.0). If he's as successful at 9 panels in the Arky next month and keeps running :24ish quarters, there's no reason to think he isn't among the top 2-3 choices May 6 if not the public choice.

As an aside, is Red Raymond an '06 version of Greater Good or an '06 version of Atswhatimtalknbout? Thoughts? I ask because the difference would be obvious come Derby Day... Either toss or use underneath in exotics?

[OTM Al]

Hard to say about Red. I used him in 2nd and 3rd on my tri ticket along with Film Film Fortune as both looked good for being underneath with a price. FF appears to have had a rotten trip and still managed 5th....of course my mistake was trying to beat Ron, so I left the money on the table....

For Red's future chances, that was his first race in the spotlight. My gut reaction would be that if he does make it to the Derby, he is probably still a throwout. He still has a lot to do to catch up with the big boys. Steppenwolfer is your Greater Good/Giacomo type for this year. As I said in another thread, he's looking like the posterboy for the "will get better stretching out" tag. Honestly I don't care if the race is 4f or 2 miles, he's still going to miss trying to run up late. I just can't see another big time pace meltdown this year like last and that is the only way he could win.

Thanks for posting those splits too. They do look nice. I had said elsewhere that his pace looked a little off, but maybe not. I'm absolutely not buying the BSF of that race relative to the other preps saturday, especially the California results. But then if that sucks some money in that direction maybe I shouldn't mind so much....

[Valuist]

Its hard NOT to root for a horse that's already started 13 times. What a contrast to the pampered horses of today; a couple starts at 2 and 2 preps and its Derby time.

[Cesario!]

WHO IS THIS HORSE? WOW. Maybe just passed Brother Derek on my board.

It's looking like it's going to be a great derby, gentlemen (and ladies.)

Solidified as my Derby horse.

[chrisg]

Its hard NOT to root for a horse that's already started 13 times. What a contrast to the pampered horses of today; a couple starts at 2 and 2 preps and its Derby time.

That's a pretty short list either way:

Pampered Criteria mentioned above:

High Limit > 20th in Derby
Bellamy Road > 7th in Derby
Tapit > 9th in Derby
Birdstone > 8th in Derby
Friends Lake > 15th in Derby
Lion Heart > 2nd in Derby
Indian Express > 14th in Derby

12 starts or more:

Wilko (14) > 6th in Derby
Sort It Out (12) > 17th in Derby
Imperialism (15) > 3rd in Derby
Supah Blitz (15) > 13th in Derby

I think horses should race, but I don't see a correlation here w/winning the Derby based on # of preps.

[Ponyplayr]

This is a horse that I have ben impressed with. As a 3 year old he has developed very nicley. Huge win in the Risen Star, earning a big speed figure. Another strong performance and you will hear even more on this guy. I already think he is one of the top 3 year olds in the country. Will contest the Southwest Stakes tomorrow at Oaklawn Park. In what will be his first class test up till now. Has a a running style that will have him in the race from an early point. Look foward to him running.

One word...WOW

[shammy]

One word...WOW

I agree- WOW