Ohio Derby Picks...

[Bubbles]

Hey...

After hitting the exacta (not the trifecta, as I previously thought) in the Virginia Derby, I'm back to try and erase any memories of my handicapping woes in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Here goes...

The Ohio Derby is usually a race for underrated three year olds, and this year's renewal is no different. MAGIC WEISNER has a lethal closing kick, which he showed in the Preakness. He's capable of much better than what he showed at Belmont in his last start. WISEMAN'S FERRY is the only real challenge to Weisner. He stole the Lone Star Derby on the lead, but breaks from the outside post here, which might cost him. PEEKSKILL hasn't run in a while, but did run well during the winter and spring down in Florida. He should be rested for this, and will probably grab a minor piece of the purse.

Any questions?

[tigers1901]

Have attended many Ohio Derbies where the controlling speed has dictated more than closers have at the 1 1/8.

Why would the outside post in a 5 horse field hurt Wiseman's Ferry?Should be right where he wants to be going into the 1st turn.2W or 3W at the worst.He may even be gone by then.

[Bubbles]

Hey...

Both The Judge Sez Who and Peekskill have shown early speed and break on the inside of Wiseman's Ferry. I always thought that the speed horses who broke on the inside were a bit more likely to go to the lead, but that's just my opinion.

[tigers1901]

Neither of the horses you mention show the ability or desire to press the lead in the early part of the race.PEEKSKILL in the Lone Star Derby started from the same 3 position as he will on Saturday and watched as WISEMAN'S FERRY went on the "Bill Daley" from the 14 post and led all the way around at 1 1/8.

This isn't Harness Racing---no parking to the quarter or half from the inside posts.

[Bubbles]

Hey...

Also forgot one more minor detail.Wiseman's Ferry is giving four or six pounds to his rivals. While he HAS carried more to victory, he's never beaten a horse like Magic Weisner while giving him four pounds, at least not to my knowledge. If I'm wrong, please tell me. Thanks!

[tigers1901]

If WISEMAN'S FERRY gets run down in the lane the 6# may help to do him in, granted.But,he will not be done in by an outside post in a 5 horse field.

Here how I line this one:

MAGIC WEISNER 6/5 45%
WISEMAN'S FERRY 3/2 40%
PEEKSKILL 6 14%
OTHER 2 1%

Basically this is a pass/legitimate favorite type race.

[justin]

Can't see anyone beating Wiseman's Ferry if he's on his game today...if he goes off at his ML odds, I think he's a steal. Throw out the Preakness where Weisner had a monster pace to run at, and you have a horse who doesn't look much better than the rest of the entrants in the race. Even money money is a joke for his odds!