Polytrack and the breed

[GlenninOhio]

I think it's fair to say that:

1. The poly at Turfway has been much kinder to erstwhile turf horses than traditional dirt surfaces.

2. There are some "dirt horses" who don't like racing on poly, even if they train well on it.

Fast forward now to 2007 at the major California tracks (or perhaps to fall 2006 at Keeneland). These tracks will have replaced their dirt surfaces with poly and will (presumably) also offer turf racing.

This is all fine (actually great) for horses who would normally favor turf. And it's also fine for horses who favor dirt but who are ok with poly (probably a solid majority).

But what about those horses who don't like turf and don't like poly (perhaps call them "pure dirt horses")?

I certainly have a bias here because I believe I own such a horse, but you could be talking about 10-20% of the current horse population.

One could argue that many horses don't like the current Keeneland dirt surface, so what's the difference? I think the difference is we'd be moving away from the anecdotal "horses for courses" situation that we've lived with forever to one that could shut the door at many major tracks for a significant sub-population of thoroughbreds.

I'm not suggesting this would be a catstrophe, but I do believe it would change the face of the industry and the breed in no small way. If we lived in a polytrack world 50 years ago, might Northern Dancer have disliked the surface? I'd put the chances at 1 in 10; perhaps even 1 in 5.

Maybe I'm making much ado about nothing and I'm sure I'd benefit from the collective wisdom of the board on this issue.

[GaryG]

I play Turfway daily (or nightly) and I think you are right on the money. That mare that Grant Hofmans got from Sahadi, K'ehleyr, is a good example of a turf specialist that loves the Polytrack. I think she will win convincingly tonight. If all of this comes to pass it will change a lot of things, hopefully some for the better. Good luck.

[Valuist]

I'm personally glad to see it to be implemented elsewhere but it does seem extreme to make ALL the major Cali tracks implement it. I think as bettors it gives those quick to adapt a major advantage.

[twindouble]

I'm personally glad to see it to be implemented elsewhere but it does seem extreme to make ALL the major Cali tracks implement it. I think as bettors it gives those quick to adapt a major advantage.

I watched a couple races Turfway, couldn't get over the amount of partials kicked up as mentioned before. I would think the pure volume of air a horse takes in would some day have an effect. I think it would be wise for other tracks to wait it out just in case, unless they can find someway of keeping the dust down.

On another note, there's no question radical changes like this will open up opportunity for the savvy players.


T.D.

[Valuist]

Ironically, the company that makes the Polytrack particles claims one of its advantages is "less kickback". Yeah, less kickback than a sandstorm in the middle of the Sahara.

[twindouble]

Ironically, the company that makes the Polytrack particles claims one of its advantages is "less kickback". Yeah, less kickback than a sandstorm in the middle of the Sahara.

I would think horses can handle dirt and sand a lot better than a foreign material, just common sense to me. As a matter of fact the lattest study on health say let you kids out in inviroment to take in some real dirt to build up their emmune system. I've been saying that for years but I didn't get a few millions to do the study. :bang:


T.D.

[kenwoodallpromos]

But what about those horses who don't like turf and don't like poly (perhaps call them "pure dirt horses")?
I am not privy to your horse's record or pedigree, but as to a horse running on dirt or nothing, there wil be plenty of dirt tracks left during your horse's career. I'm glad you plan to have your horse around to 2007! Try ths Ca fairs, TC tracks, "inner" tracks, quarterhorse tracks. Midwest or Northwest tracks, El Commantante, Canadian tracks.

[GlenninOhio]

But what about those horses who don't like turf and don't like poly (perhaps call them "pure dirt horses")?
I am not privy to your horse's record or pedigree, but as to a horse running on dirt or nothing, there wil be plenty of dirt tracks left during your horse's career. I'm glad you plan to have your horse around to 2007! Try ths Ca fairs, TC tracks, "inner" tracks, quarterhorse tracks. Midwest or Northwest tracks, El Commantante, Canadian tracks.

Your thoughts are much appreciated.

My guess is there will be a quick accounting of those horses who are "pure dirt", with you folks on this board in the forefront of it for obvious reasons.

I'm a total novice on California racing, but it strikes me that the contrast between the type of horse that likes lightning quick dirt and one that likes poly would likely be huge.

[andicap]

What about the third type of horse, the ones that dont like turf or the dirt courses of today? Maybe 10%-20% of the horses would race much better over polytrack?
That would make up for the dirt horses who don't like poly, wouldn't it?

And no one has mentioned the safety angle, that far fewer horses have been put down on polyturf.

[TravisVOX]

I think the question to consider: Do we want the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup run over a polytrack?

See what I'm saying? It's tough to swallow. It's great having a few tracks with it (like Turfway who struggles w/weather), but other than that...

I dunno, maybe I'm too much of a purist.

[GlenninOhio]

What about the third type of horse, the ones that dont like turf or the dirt courses of today? Maybe 10%-20% of the horses would race much better over polytrack?
That would make up for the dirt horses who don't like poly, wouldn't it?

And no one has mentioned the safety angle, that far fewer horses have been put down on polyturf.

Excellent point - yes, there is likely to be a "love poly, don't like anything else" horse constituency - a constituency that is now better known as "losers". And it would behoove handicappers and those in the bloodstock market to try to figure out the likeliest suspects sooner rather than later. Just another illustration of how widespread poly adoption could turn the game on its head.

Safety is certainly a major consideration. One related question I'd have is whether turf racing is safer than dirt racing, by whatever standard one measures safety. Because it's the dirt courses, not the turf courses, that are being replaced with poly (Turfway, of course, only had a dirt course to replace).

[Valuist]

I don't think there's any question turf racing is safer than dirt. More give to the footing. It seems like grass specialists can keep improving into their 5 and 6 year old years but most dirt specialists have reached their peak by the end of their 4 YO year.

[GlenninOhio]

Just want to amend the piece of my last post where I referred to those horses who would prefer poly to dirt or turf as "losers".

That was unfair, as we could simply be talking about horses that move up on poly relative to how they perform on other surfaces but who may still perform creditably on these other surfaces.

[rastajenk]

Or those that move up on poly but are still talent-challenged enough to keep not winning. :)

[GlenninOhio]

Beyer on poly at California tracks:

http://drf.com/news/article/72374.html

[Skanoochies]

Are there any legal stands on this issue? If someone spends millions investing in a racetrack, do they have no say in this matter? Usually when there are precedents that have been in effect for years ie: union and company contracts, state and federal agreements, etc. they are generally changed thru negotiations. Do State Racing Boards have the right to arbitrarily issue an edict, without the tracks having any recourse? Seems heavy handed IMO. :eek:

[kenwoodallpromos]

Of coure it is heavy handed! The recourse as far as I know is to prove their tracks are getting safer or go to court to get an injunction.
If you have any suggestions how GGF can avoid 5 "vanned off"s in 3 days let them know- I have.
So now Turfway and the Keeneland track are going Poly- and Ca KYDerby winners in the past 10 years has been a few. Why should Ca not keep up the KY?

[Dr. Carter]

I suppose that the tracks could ignore the boards demand and still not lose their dates. I mean what are they going to do, tell Stronach that Santa Anita is going to sit idle all winter ? Then what would the horsemen do? Legally who knows being California (socialist state)? What if Stronach said we'll put down our own version, like using that awful bedding he makes the trainers at Gulfstream and Palm Meadows? It certainly is synthetic.

But as the horse population dwindles and alternate revenue seems far away, the tracks need to do something to get trainers to stay and recruit new blood.

[Tom]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11523354/from/RS.3/

[Indulto]

GIO and Tom,,

Thanks for posting Beyer’s Washington Post column which appeared in both the DRF and MSNBC:

“But if the Polytrack advocates prevail, and all racetracks are basically the same, the game will lose many of its subtleties. It might suffer the same fate as harness racing -- becoming too understandable and predictable, producing too many small payoffs, driving gamblers to other activities that offer more challenge and better opportunities for profit. Though the practicality and safety of synthetic surfaces may make them irresistible, a sport filled with Polytrack sounds boringly homogenized.”



I hope this column of Beyer’s triggers some debate at DRF. If Stan Bergstein takes that remark about harness racing sitting down, he’s not the firebrand he used to be.

I don’t think Beyer’s analogy is a good one. If anything about dirt races in CA resembles the rail advantage for sulky-pullers resulting in excessive favorites, it’s the existing early speed bias and sprint rail curse on thoroughbreds. Giving closers a shot as well as reducing post position bias sounds like a more interesting and competitive scenario to me.

Is it a coincidence that Santa Anita’s improved field size and handle follow the decision to slow down the track? Anybody got a feeling for breakdown volume out there this season?

Del Mar doesn’t have Hollywood’s problems with short fields, but is going ahead with Polytrack on its own.

Hollywood is plagued by short fields and excessive favorites and will be gone in two years if business doesn’t improve.

I say leave SA alone and mandate construction at HOL. If developers take over in Inglewood two years from now, ship all synthetic material to Arcadia.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"But if the speed-favoring advocates prevail, and all (Magna) racetracks are basically the same, the game will lose many of its subtleties. It might suffer the same fate as harness racing -- becoming too understandable and predictable, producing too many small payoffs, driving gamblers to other activities that offer more challenge and better opportunities for profit."
________
I just couldn't resist! How is the live attendance at the fastest (Magna) tracks, SA, GGF, LS, GP, Pimlico? Maybe Beyer was not aware of when the Turfway Park froze and many horses wired? I'd like to see his Beyer daily variants for Turfway.
Too many small payoffs? Take a look at GGF's payoffs today, finish times, and the field size. About 5 races paid $5 or less.
Oh yes- I did not hear why, but a horse lost a jockey today at GGF.

[GlenninOhio]

Had a conversation with my trainer at Turfway yesterday on the following points:

1. A sizeable number of horses coughed after running in September and this is no longer much of an issue. He guesses the problem in September may have been with particles associated with the original coating of the poly when the surface was brand new.

2. I asked him about an issue raised a couple of weeks ago on this board - riders wearing masks even when the weather did not appear to be all that cold. He said when this happens it's more out of habit as opposed to them needing the masks as kickback protection.

3. The winter has been unusually dry, and some moisture on the surface would reduce the kickback. Watering the track could be helpful but there are issues with that at this time of year.

[Valuist]

Glenn-

Thanks for answering my earlier questions.

[so.cal.fan]

Glen:
"If we lived in a polytrack world 50 years ago, might Northern Dancer have disliked the surface? I'd put the chances at 1 in 10; perhaps even 1 in 5".


A good horse or good athlete will beat an inferior one 9 out of 10 times, maybe even more, regardless of the surface. I brought up this point to CJ on another thread, using human athletes as an example.
However, you bring up a valid question. I'm very interested in WHY your horse may not like this surface.
Since I wager on So. Cal. races....of course, I am most interested in this subject.
I do think that the tracks will eventually improve and perfect this polytrack as needed, but it may take a while (doesn't it always?)
I hope everyone will keep posting about this subject. We need to jump out ahead of the crowd......this group, I'm sure will do so.

[Lefty]

Gordon Jones has reported that The CA racing board is going to make it mandatory that all CA trks install Polytrack with the exception of the fairs. This seems rash, without enough study, especially when one member of the board wanted a clarification of a term he kept hearing. He asked, "what's a furlong?"

[Valuist]

A good athlete may beat an inferior one 9 times out of 10 regardless of surface but lets not compare humans to horses. Completely different ballgame......remember Cigar on the grass? Couldn't get out of conditioned allowances. And God knows there's plenty of dirt stars who've struggled when moved to the sod.

[kenwoodallpromos]

One issue with watering at 32 degrees or below is freezing causing front speed to carry better.
Lefty- Webster's dictionary says 1 furlong is "The distance a thorughbred in training at auction has to run fast to be worth millions". LOL!! :liar:
A furlong is 40 rods.http://www.unc.edu/~rowlett/units/custom.html

[GlenninOhio]

Glen:
"If we lived in a polytrack world 50 years ago, might Northern Dancer have disliked the surface? I'd put the chances at 1 in 10; perhaps even 1 in 5".


A good horse or good athlete will beat an inferior one 9 out of 10 times, maybe even more, regardless of the surface. I brought up this point to CJ on another thread, using human athletes as an example.
However, you bring up a valid question. I'm very interested in WHY your horse may not like this surface.
Since I wager on So. Cal. races....of course, I am most interested in this subject.
I do think that the tracks will eventually improve and perfect this polytrack as needed, but it may take a while (doesn't it always?)
I hope everyone will keep posting about this subject. We need to jump out ahead of the crowd......this group, I'm sure will do so.

Regarding why my mare may not like poly, I have to add that my trainer is not yet at the point of accepting this as fact.

She's had some physical issues over the past six months that happen to coincide with the poly installation, and 5 of her past 7 starts have been on poly over this period and these 5 starts have resulted in her weakest speed figures since before she broke her maiden in early-2004. But it's always tough to reach conclusions when you've got two variables operating at the same time.

That said, it now looks like her physical issues may be behind her and she's in on Saturday in the 10th at Turfway (Fly Away Angel). We'll see.

If she does run poorly, I think he and I will agree it's time for a change in venue and I'll pursue the question of "why" as a separate issue.

One more point - before I bought her she ran once on turf in a Msw at Gulfstream and did noticeably worse than in her dirt efforts before and after. Don't like turf, don't like poly?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Did polyturf cause or bring out her physical issues?
If she races 5 times on Polyturf and those issues may be behind her, would you have races her 5 (+2) on dirt? Can you PM or email me her past performance chart? As a student of the game I am interested in studying a horse that I already know has problems.

[GlenninOhio]

Did polyturf cause or bring out her physical issues?
If she races 5 times on Polyturf and those issues may be behind her, would you have races her 5 (+2) on dirt? Can you PM or email me her past performance chart? As a student of the game I am interested in studying a horse that I already know has problems.


If I didn't screw up the attachment process, there should be a file attached that shows her lifetime results, condensed to display finish position/lengths behind plus her Beyer figs.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Well, my guess is a flexing problem, either ankle. muscle or even minor foot ailment.

[Tom]

Here is an opinion that differs from Beyer's....

http://sport.guardian.co.uk/horseracing/story/0,,1714151,00.html

[weegee]

No one knows what happens to Polytrack after years of use with repeated cycles of freezing and thawing, and exposure to heat and rain. Suppose, after ten years, the coating on the particles begins to break down? It would cost $10-15 million to replace it (that is, if the company that makes it is still in business). That's a lot of money for a track to put out on a regular basis. I think it makes more sense to see how the surface performs at a few tracks over time before rushing to install it at every track in the country.

[kenwoodallpromos]

The author is no math guy! 18% leass than 100=82%; 36% - 6% = 30%. The % favorites to field size is almost exactly the same!
??? for Tom and all- These Brits who cannot do math- how much PP info do they have compared to we in the colonies?

[GlenninOhio]

Regarding why my mare may not like poly, I have to add that my trainer is not yet at the point of accepting this as fact.

She's had some physical issues over the past six months that happen to coincide with the poly installation, and 5 of her past 7 starts have been on poly over this period and these 5 starts have resulted in her weakest speed figures since before she broke her maiden in early-2004. But it's always tough to reach conclusions when you've got two variables operating at the same time.

That said, it now looks like her physical issues may be behind her and she's in on Saturday in the 10th at Turfway (Fly Away Angel). We'll see.

If she does run poorly, I think he and I will agree it's time for a change in venue and I'll pursue the question of "why" as a separate issue.

One more point - before I bought her she ran once on turf in a Msw at Gulfstream and did noticeably worse than in her dirt efforts before and after. Don't like turf, don't like poly?

Well, Fly Away Angel ran 3rd beaten 3-1/2 yesterday - it was only a 5-horse field but Plumlake Lady is a killer at Turfway and the winner, Gallant Secret, was multiple stakes-placed including 3rd in last year's Kentucky Oaks. Those Turfway open allowances are extremely tough - check out their Bris race ratings and they compare well to OP and even GP.

All her speed figs improved, and her Bris pace figs improved significantly - the best since her big win at CD last May.

Right now I'm feeling better about the issue of how she takes to poly.

FYI, there were some issues about kickback at Turfway yesterday. As I understand it, the riders were complaining about carpet fiber particles kicking back after the 8th race, perhaps as a result of the track being harrowed the day before. Post time for the 9th race was actually delayed by about 10 minutes for the tractors to go around the track twice.

[GlenninOhio]

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=62405&subsec=2

[Sean Rua]

Just to say that I'm Irish, but betting in Britain on polytrack, and I can't do the math either!

However, I've watched the advent of Polytrack right from the start. Imo, it's a good, fair surface. The only thing that ever beat it here was blinding snow.

The jockeys complained that the hooves were throwing up chunks of ice like snowballs, so they called the meeting off in the interests of safety. In fairness, the snow was bad; you couldn't even see the horses in the stretch!

Generally, the kickback is no problem. It's a great improvement on the sand surfaces we had before. Actually, the stuff is less dusty than most hay or straw. It just sticks on the front of the horses like bits of cobweb.

Here they harrow and roll the surface between races. There has been a lot of talk about them creating bias ( inner/outer), but I'm convinced that poly is one of the fairest surfaces there is.

It is moreorless equivalent to turf, imo, and it is very tiring. Almost all horses here are accustomed to it nowadays, as most trainers have installed polytrack training gallops which can be used all year round.
Generally, wet is faster - unlike turf, in this respect.

I'm a fan and see no big problem. The most important thing is to get the underlying sub-base and drainage right. As has been said, nobody knows how well the thing will last in future. Blocked drains could be its downfall longterm, imv.

Hope this post has helped.


Sean Rua.

[GlenninOhio]

Just to say that I'm Irish, but betting in Britain on polytrack, and I can't do the math either!

However, I've watched the advent of Polytrack right from the start. Imo, it's a good, fair surface. The only thing that ever beat it here was blinding snow.

The jockeys complained that the hooves were throwing up chunks of ice like snowballs, so they called the meeting off in the interests of safety. In fairness, the snow was bad; you couldn't even see the horses in the stretch!

Generally, the kickback is no problem. It's a great improvement on the sand surfaces we had before. Actually, the stuff is less dusty than most hay or straw. It just sticks on the front of the horses like bits of cobweb.

Here they harrow and roll the surface between races. There has been a lot of talk about them creating bias ( inner/outer), but I'm convinced that poly is one of the fairest surfaces there is.

It is moreorless equivalent to turf, imo, and it is very tiring. Almost all horses here are accustomed to it nowadays, as most trainers have installed polytrack training gallops which can be used all year round.
Generally, wet is faster - unlike turf, in this respect.

I'm a fan and see no big problem. The most important thing is to get the underlying sub-base and drainage right. As has been said, nobody knows how well the thing will last in future. Blocked drains could be its downfall longterm, imv.

Hope this post has helped.


Sean Rua.

Thanks very much for this, SR.

Given the poly is "very tiring", one could envision a nice "poly to dirt" betting angle akin to "turf to dirt".

Two anecdotal examples would be Hot Storm - who won several races at Turfway on poly before going on to win the Sunshine Millions F&M; and Lawyer Ron, who was mediocre at Turfway in September, then won easily at Keeneland with a big Beyer and the rest is history.

[Tom]

Interesting idea. It would be worth the work to check a db for all horses whose last race was over poly and today's race is over dirt ( or turf) and see what effects there is on pace and speed ratings. I will try to take on that task this week.

[Tom]

Poly track started in Sept this year?

[Tom]

First pass:

All races since 9-1-05
Last race TP, today's race not TP
Raced within 60 dys
Won today

NH 1,408 NW 172 w% 12.2% roi .843

All races since 9-1-05
Last race any track
raced within 60 days
Today's track different from last
Won today

NH 42,531 NW 5,439 W% 12.8% roi .756

[mainardi]

He starts out his DRF article sounding like he's going to take some HARD shots at Polytrack... but then he's goes into some softball article about quotes and stats... blah, blah, blah. And then I noticed that the article was actually written for the Washington Post -- and, AHA -- that solves the mystery. I bet that if he was blogging or freelancing the article would have had more Beyer-like ranting.... at least a pitch on how his figures will be taking it into account.

Come on Andy, give us something to work with here! :(

[kenwoodallpromos]

You are the first to mention the math! No one corrected me that % is % no matter the field size!LOL!! But my point was, there could be many reasons why favs are down 6%.
With the force exerted by horses' hooves I think this Poly is the best there is at the moment. Sean I think you made a big statement there about training on the same surface as racing- Here in the states McPeek (He has a website) is planning on being the first with a private Polystrip.
Did those big bookie arrests in England affect the bets on favorites?
Do you think laying bets for USA races will work for races with short fields of 5-7 horses? How does that work with extreme favorites? Would it increase interest in races for old, slow horses?

[classhandicapper]

Andy Beyer had an article about Polytrack in the DRF. He brings up an interesting point. It's one that I've been worrying about too. My guess is that there will fewer track biases on polytrack. That TAKES AWAY a potential edge in the betting among more sophisticated handicappers that know that certain performances are better or worse than they look on paper.

[classhandicapper]

Here is an opinion that differs from Beyer's....

http://sport.guardian.co.uk/horseracing/story/0,,1714151,00.html

I think it will be hard to tell if Polytrack is more or less formful until all the horses have established form on it. In the early stages of a meet, more horses than usual are probably moving up or down on the surface switch and handicappers don't have much of clue as to which ones it will be. Once form is established for all the horses at the track, the stats should level out a bit.

I'm more concerned about the bias issue. If there are fewer speed/closer and good rail/bad rail biases on Polytrack I see that as a huge disadvantage for serious handicappers. IMO, there are fewer more profitable situations than intermittent strong biases that cloud form and allow you to throw out favorites one day and play them back next out on a neutral track etc... The whole game is identifying horses that are either better or worse than they look on paper. What could be more valuable from a gambling perspective than occaisional biases that the crowd is generally unaware of.

[GMB@BP]

Andy Beyer had an article about Polytrack in the DRF. He brings up an interesting point. It's one that I've been worrying about too. My guess is that there will fewer track biases on polytrack. That TAKES AWAY a potential edge in the betting among more sophisticated handicappers that know that certain performances are better or worse than they look on paper.

Wont larger field sizes, healthier horses with a larger population, and a fair race course even that out? How many times have you handicapped a race, say the 6th at aqu, you like the race to fall apart and you had a nice presser on the drop, but after 5 races its obvious no one is coming off the pace so you more or less cant play your off the pace horse?

I just did a quick look at the charts, favorites have won just about the statistical average this meet at turfway. care to guess how they are doing at aqueduct?

[Valuist]

CH-

There still are some biases w/Polytrack, but they aren't the really the old "good rail/dead rail or speed/closer type conventional biases". Tholl had a great post about it in another thread and he talked about dead spots on the track, especially the 2-3 path in the stretch and on the rail on the turn. If you watch Leparoux, he seems to like to either ride the rail or be widest of all in the stretch. Its never really easy to win from between horses in the stretch but it seems unusually bad at TP to be between horses in the stretch.

[classhandicapper]

Small fields are a huge problem also. No doubt about that.

It just seems to me that when I disagree with the odds board in a meaningful way it's often because I am downgrading a horse that won with the bias (or vice versa) or because I suspected a bias early in the card and made some adjustments to my betting before the public caught on.

I was also planning to start using biases to multi-track without spending too much time.

For example, last year there was a period at Keenland when speed was iron on the dirt and the inside was dead on the turf. Even though I didn't handicap all the races due to time constraints, it wasn't that difficult to build a "horses to watch/bet against list" from the charts and replays and have the DRF e-mail me whenever one was running. I was thinking of implmenting that kind of thing on a larger scale.

[classhandicapper]

valuist,

I haven't played at Turfway at all. So I'm mostly talking out of my ??? on this issue. The bias issue was just something that I was thinking about on my own when I read the Beyer article. So it reinforced my concerns.

Maybe I should start watching the races and reviewing the charts. I am way behind the learning curve.

IMO, it's extremely difficult to find an edge these days. I mostly handicap NY, so perhaps I don't have a wide enough view, but these days I agree with the odds board race after race after race. It's tough for me to get enough money through the windows.

I always liked biases as a source of plays because many sharp people don't believe in them. Even when they do, there's a subjective element to determining when there is/was one and what kind of impact it had (might have). I think I have a conservative way of dealing with these things that works well.

[Valuist]

That Kee turf last fall was crazy. The inside did seem to be bad; I can't think of too many times where you want to lose ground on the grass but that was the case then. Must've made the Sheets and T-Graph numbers totally useless. Hopefully they'll have the turf repaired before April.

[classhandicapper]

That Kee turf last fall was crazy. The inside did seem to be bad; I can't think of too many times where you want to lose ground on the grass but that was the case then. Must've made the Sheets and T-Graph numbers totally useless. Hopefully they'll have the turf repaired before April.

Despite being barred from the T-Graph board and not particularly welcomed on the Sheets board either, I have a lot of respect for both their speed figures. However, I think a lot of money is bet based on their figures. So I do try to search for and exploit weaknesses in their methodologies. I guess that's why I'm not so welcomed. :rolleyes:

[Valuist]

I respect their grass figs normally. But anything earned at the fall 2005 Kee meet would have to be viewed skeptically.

[GlenninOhio]

CH-
Its never really easy to win from between horses in the stretch but it seems unusually bad at TP to be between horses in the stretch.

As a very interested Turfway observer, I agree 100% with this.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Beyer writes and think what Beyer wants; If he wants to love Ca racing now that's up to him!
GMB- The average horse will usually win the average race at the average track and the bettors will lose their average 15-20%! It will all even out in the end if you are looking for average!
The closing or off the pace winners will average out the wire-to-wire days at TP.Do not worry about it!

[Indulto]

Originally posted by Valuist:
If you watch Leparoux, he seems to like to either ride the rail or be widest of all in the stretch. Its never really easy to win from between horses in the stretch but it seems unusually bad at TP to be between horses in the stretch.
Valuist,
Maybe that has something more to do with the jockeys than the surface. Does your observation hold for higher purse races and visiting dignitaries?

[Sean Rua]

Hi KenWoodall and All,

Even here in UK it's still too early to draw firm conclusions about Polytrack, so there's no way I can predict the future.

At present there are only two polytracks actually running in England, but more are being developed.

When looking at any figures for England, we must remember that All Weather racing ( AW) was introduced mainly as fodder for punters in betting shops. Before this, bookmakers' trade was down in the winter due to bad weather causing cancellations.

From the start, AW attracted the worst of runners, and, imo, there was plenty of corruption. Traditionalists avoided it like the plague. They said it was unfathomable, and, indeed, results could be very strange to say the least.

Now that polytrack has come on the scene, things can only get better, imv.
There is no real excuse for bad performances. Of course, jockeyship is crucial, and this, rather than the surface or even, the track configuration, is what gives rise to some questionable results.

My own opinion is that if an animal cannot run on this stuff , it shouldn't be racing at all.

Don't forget that we have no sectional times and a deal of "tactical racing" here. Well, it all serves to confuse the issue - something the trainers and jockeys like!

In ten years time we may all be wiser - or bust, or dead!

Sean Rua.

[highnote]

Kempton about to get a sand course...

http://sport.independent.co.uk/general/article348199.ece

[Indulto]

SJ,
Good article in that it appears the case is being made for polytrak in place of wet turf courses:

http://sport.independent.co.uk/gene...ticle348199.ece (http://sport.independent.co.uk/general/article348199.ece)

". . . On turf, those races might be staged on anything from heavy to good ground," Julian Thick, managing director of Kempton, said yesterday. "Whereas now trainers know weeks in advance that they can expect a good, fast surface. . . . For us, it's not a case of turf versus all-weather. It's how turf and all-weather work together in the best interests of British racing plc."

It also appears the Brits are less willing to give up a racetrack than we are. The thought that Hollywood Park could be replaced by housing tracts and Wal-Marts seems like such a tragedy. If polytrak/all-weather is the solution to small field sizes and an eight-race card limit, the CHRB’s priority should be to get the artificial surface in there ASAP. CHRB Chairman Shapiro’s threat to not license them without it makes no sense to me. Isn’t that just what the pro-real estate developers want?