Are exactas the way and the light?

[PaceAdvantage]

There's a lot more automated betting going on out there then we care to admit, isn't there? Heck, ATR can place bets automatically through Pinnacle....I have a program I've written for myself that places bets through a popular online service, and I know of at least one other person on this board that has done the same.

Now if I can do it with my rudimentary tools and knowledge, imagine what the "big boys" have going for them....that's what you and I are up against at the windows every single day.....you have guys out there arbitraging the various pari-mutuel pools as accurately as some of the biggest hedge funds play the worldwide financial markets....it's that serious....

So what's an independent contractor such as you or I to do to get back our edge? I'm thinking of moving beyond the win pool seriously for the first time. I see exactas getting paid out every day that, based on my personal odds line, I could have easily taken down because they represent good value. I'm wondering though that like the win pool, are these exacta payoffs "after the fact" window dressing? Do they look that good at 0 MTP? Something tells me they don't....they just end up looking good on the charts, because they were arb'd in that direction from all the late "auto$$$."

Discuss amongst yourselves.....

[sjk]

I play almost exclusively exactas and generally find value there that is not often degraded after 3 MTP as I talked about in the other thread. No shortage of bettable races as I have played about 40k online over the years.
I don't think I could have found nearly so many plays in the win pools.

The only real edge is better handicapping or handicapping software. I play mainly for fun and have never seriously tried to maximize my financial return but I'm sure there are people out there who are serious about doing so. You have to wonder if there will come a time when a handful of serious players will take down most of the cash and things will be hopeless for the casual player. Maybe it is already happening and we don't know it.

[schweitz]

So what's an independent contractor such as you or I to do to get back our edge?

For the reasons you mentioned above I wager only at small tracks and restrict my play to Pick-3s---it's worked for me.

[the little guy]

Exactas are a very good way for a handicapper to take advantage of a good opinion. To describe it simplistically, suppose you like a horse and it's 3-1. If you feel you can narrow the rest of the field down to say three other contendors, it is likely you can dutch your exacta play, i.e. different amounts on each one, to greatly increase your win odds should your horse win. Obviously without a specific and real example I can't give an exact example, but turning a 3-1 shot into a 6-1 shot certainly seems conservative. If you do this, and are correct ( assuming your horse wins ) over 50% of the time, you will obviously increase your ROI.

It goes without saying that trifectas and multi-race wagers can do they same thing, but the value of using exactas is willpays, and while I realize late money can alter your returns, if you play late and into big pools, you will minimize this variable.

[RaceIsClosed]

There's a lot more automated betting going on out there then we care to admit, isn't there? Heck, ATR can place bets automatically through Pinnacle....I have a program I've written for myself that places bets through a popular online service, and I know of at least one other person on this board that has done the same.

Now if I can do it with my rudimentary tools and knowledge, imagine what the "big boys" have going for them....that's what you and I are up against at the windows every single day.....you have guys out there arbitraging the various pari-mutuel pools as accurately as some of the biggest hedge funds play the worldwide financial markets....it's that serious....

So what's an independent contractor such as you or I to do to get back our edge? I'm thinking of moving beyond the win pool seriously for the first time. I see exactas getting paid out every day that, based on my personal odds line, I could have easily taken down because they represent good value. I'm wondering though that like the win pool, are these exacta payoffs "after the fact" window dressing? Do they look that good at 0 MTP? Something tells me they don't....they just end up looking good on the charts, because they were arb'd in that direction from all the late "auto$$$."

Discuss amongst yourselves.....

It's simple math: in the exotics you have more combinations, more slots, and can overcome the takeout with more than one horse.

A horse who presents a $1.00 ROI in the win pool is worthless without rebates, while a pair of them will yield a profit in the exacta, even if both happen to be bad win bets.

Now how many people did you previously bash for favoring exotic play over straight play?

[toetoe]

Um, I'll guess none, for $200, please, Race. :)

[kenwoodallpromos]

I never lost my edge over as computer. My computer is capable of nothing without me; and if I do not stop them, my computer will obey anyone else who comes along.
Since I do not bet a great deal, do not use software, and invent my own handicapping methods, I can tell you what my edge is when I beat other betrtors or every simple computer game I play- I learn the rules, then learn paths to go around the rules (routine methods), then learn how the computer programmer thinks (out thinking the machine or using methods better than the next bettor's methods), then I know when to stop or my limits and do not exceed them.
Usually 1 method I use to beat computer games is not playing until the odds are in my favor- works for online or old time betting.
Both are risk/value judgments- with the computer games I am risking my time, racing my money.
I know of no machine or computer program that can make its own risk/value judgment- that is your advantage.
Choose the best deal for your bet types, and be sure you can beat enough others to secure a profit. Works online or at the track.
Start off slow if you wish- bet $50 show at some small track with a $1,000 pool on big favorites and help cause a negative pool- then get your rebate! Should boost your confidence.

[Niko]

I thought the batch bettors had access to the exotic pools also which gave them a big advantage? Talk of them having access to trifecta pools and being able to figure out the odds when the average person doesn't have access. I also thought they wrote programs for probable exacta and trifecta pay-outs the same as win pay-outs. I'm relying on articles I've read because I personally don't know. I'll have to re-read the chapter in Six Secrets of Successful Bettors and try to dig up articles but maybe someone else knows for sure.....

If it's true I've also questioned how to take advantage of it.....the only thing I've come up with is it's better to bet on big days when there's more money in a pool becuase they probably won't overexpose their bankroll above a certain risk on any given day. Thus the more casual money the greater chance of catching an overlay. Plus with the lows odds horses getting hammered late, particularily early speed I've tried to figure out races where these types are vulnerable leading to overlaid prices. Great question...don't have the answer.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Win to Exactas........What a bold step forward.

If you think you are smarter than your competition, would you rather play checkers or chess?

The more complicated the wager, the bigger the edge is for the smarter participant.

[Vegas711]

If I recall the person who in North Dakota who made up to 3 million betting Gulfstream used an Automated betting program that was directly wired into the system . His program bet into all the wagering pools including exactas and Tris.

He has since been banned from this practice.

[Hosshead]

.... Heck, ATR can place bets automatically through Pinnacle.....So what's an independent contractor such as you or I to do to get back our edge? .
The newest version of ATR has been equipped with a function that compares the Win vs. Exacta Pools to determine which bet offers the best value for each horse.

[Valuist]

Pylons-

I haven't always agreed w/you in the past but you are 100% correct here.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's simple math: in the exotics you have more combinations, more slots, and can overcome the takeout with more than one horse.

A horse who presents a $1.00 ROI in the win pool is worthless without rebates, while a pair of them will yield a profit in the exacta, even if both happen to be bad win bets.

Now how many people did you previously bash for favoring exotic play over straight play?

Thanks for your reply. Your last line puzzles me greatly. If you can find an example of me ever bashing someone for favoring exotic over straight play, I will personally PayPal you $100.

[michiken]

I personally have no success or patience to play win only. I can't get get excited by $5.00 mutuals. I imagine if I made LARGE bets, I would focus more on win or win/place only.

I have no problem keying my longshot over 4 or 5 horses for a couple of bucks because it fits my budget. For example, I had a nice race at Turfway hitting a $704 exacta (3) times. If the betbots were slamming this race, thanks for the extra profit!

PA, If your personal odds line is working in identifying the exactas, why not setup a separate bankroll and test it for a month or two? Perhaps this test will help you be more comfortable with 'moving to the dark side'? Sometimes a fresh outlook will give you your edge back.

[oddswizard]

Esactas are exactly the way to increase profits. I pick 3 horses (ABC) and these 3 are the only exacta horses I use. I demand a 50% ROI so a $1.00 exacta must pay $15.00+ or I pass the race. I also bet to win on odds of 7/2+. Lets say my play is $60.00 per race. I will have 2 $20.00 win wagers on the best odds horses. Then I will key the low odds horse one way on top of the other horses. So I have 3 chances to win. If either of my win bets hit I will net 50%. However, if either of my win horses comes in 2nd and my low odds horse wins I will make well over 50% because I will hit the exacta 10 times. Since one of my top 3 horses will win 70% of the races and the exactas hit just under 40% it is a profitable play. Now lets show a sample race with the odds:

Horse A= 2-1

Horse B= 4-1

Horse C= 8-1 The wager is $20.00 to win on B & C. The exactas = $10.00 one way A/B & A/C.

If the exactas pay under $15.00 then I play a $10.00 box BC plus my win bets.

[Grifter]

There's a lot more automated betting going on out there then we care to admit, isn't there? ....I have a program I've written for myself that places bets through a popular online service, and I know of at least one other person on this board that has done the same.

Now if I can do it with my rudimentary tools and knowledge, imagine what the "big boys" have going for them....that's what you and I are up against at the windows every single day.....you have guys out there arbitraging the various pari-mutuel pools as accurately as some of the biggest hedge funds play the worldwide financial markets....it's that serious....

So what's an independent contractor such as you or I to do to get back our edge? I'm thinking of moving beyond the win pool seriously for the first time. I see exactas getting paid out every day that, based on my personal odds line, I could have easily taken down because they represent good value. I'm wondering though that like the win pool, are these exacta payoffs "after the fact" window dressing? Do they look that good at 0 MTP? Something tells me they don't....they just end up looking good on the charts, because they were arb'd in that direction from all the late "auto$$$."

I'm missing something here. Arbitrage means profiting by a difference in price when the same commodity is traded on two or more markets. How does that happen in parimutuel betting? My understanding is that everyone (save for betting exchanges) pays track odds, even the offshore books. So where is the arbitraging?

-- Grifter

[cj]

I would think you could bet the same horse in different pools.

For example, you may get better odds betting Horse 1 in a 1 - all exacta as opposed to betting the 1 to win, if you bet in the proper proportions and are accurate at estimating actual will pays.

Say a 5 horse field, Horse 1 is 4-1. He pays $10 to win.

If you check the will pays, you see:
1-2 55.00
1-3 51.00
1-4 26.00
1-5 53.00

You could bet the horse in the exacta and get better than 4-1. Bet $20 in the race. If you bet to win, you would get back $100, for an $80 profit.

If you bet in the exactas, $4, $4, $8, $4 you would get back more than $100 if the 1 horse wins.

[Grifter]

Got it...

-- Grifter

[classhandicapper]

I printed out charts that helped me exploit inefficiencies in the exotic pools about 15-20 years ago and tried to implement that kind of startegy. I figured if I could bet my horse in the best possible pool I could add a few cents to my bottom line. In practice, it didn't work very well because the odds often changed significantly late and because there were rarely meaningful discrepancies between the pools. I think all the large discrepancies were noticed by bettors and soon corrected.

THese days it might be easier because you can automate the process a bit.

However, I think the best idea is to limit your exotic action to situations where you can actually add a lot of value because you are often bucking a larger take in the exotic pools.

IMO, it rarely makes sense to play exotics unless you are combining value to value for even greater value (two overlays in the double, two overlays in the exacta etc..). Most people play way too many combinations and tons of underlays attempting to make a bigger score.

[Dave Schwartz]

Vegas,

If I recall the person who in North Dakota who made up to 3 million betting Gulfstream used an Automated betting program that was directly wired into the system . His program bet into all the wagering pools including exactas and Tris.

He has since been banned from this practice.

It wasn't three million it was thirty and he is still doing it.

It is how the whales do it (still).


Dave

[RuffianSam]

How do you know this still happens? I'm curious to hear more about this person and how there are arb opportunities. Thanks!

[RXB]

To me, win betting is for situations where you like a specific horse at a bettable price.

Exotics, for me, are mainly for when you really dislike a low-priced horse-- when you think that the horse is not likely to perform well. Then it's spread-the-money time. However, I don't play a lot of exotics because I've charted my record against favourites, and found that my strength is in getting them out of first, not getting them out of the money entirely.

[classhandicapper]

To me, win betting is for situations where you like a specific horse at a bettable price.

Exotics, for me, are mainly for when you really dislike a low-priced horse-- when you think that the horse is not likely to perform well. Then it's spread-the-money time.

I agree. Though I only spread a lot when I don't have a strong opinion on the values of the other horses.

I have one other strategy.

Occasionally if I like a favorite and really dislike the 2nd/3rd choice I will do a partial wheel leaving off the overbet 2nd/3rd choice and any other non-contenders I think are unlikely to hit the board.