Kentucky Derby Top 12

[Stevie Belmont]

This is a list I put together. As of now, these are some ot the top rated ones.
Ignore the link if you want. I was testing.

1 First Samurai
First start of the year was a solid 2nd in the Hutcheson Stakes. Has done little wrong. Has to prove he is a 2 turn horse. Has done enough to earn the #1 spot.

2 Barbaro
Undefeated in 4 starts. Holy Bull win showed he is game. Matz will either point to the Fountain of Youth or the Florida Derby. Big potential. Has yet to run on a fast dirt track.

3 Achilles of Troy
Wins in Count Fleet and Whirlaway earned big speed numbers. Nice stride. That puts him high on the list. Plans have been reworked. Will take the Gotham/Wood route. Makes more sense the ship down to Florida.

4 Brother Derek
Horse is flying under the radar. Has been winning. Will contest the big California preps

5 Lawyer Ron
Powerful victory in the Risen Star. Horse has really blossomed as a 3 year old. If horse continues to improve, will be a force down the road.

6 Keyed Entry
One of 38 Pletcher horses on the derby trail. Broke track record, when beating First Samurai over a sloppy track in the Hutcheson Stakes. Will see if he can back that effort up.

7 Bob and John
Baffert colt continues to get better. Ran as fast as High Limit did in the Sham. Will take on the other top Cali horse in the future. Baffert has a way of getting the most out of his 3 year olds.

8 Private Vow
Had his problems in the Breeder's Sup Juvenile. Has worked well. Solid horse that could make a very big impact in May.

9 Your Tent or Mine
Another California speed ball. Will take on the other top Cali 3 year olds eventually. Could prove to be the best one of the group.

10 Henny Hughes
Poor work made him miss his start in Dubai. Can't ignore the speed of this horse. Could very well be the fastest 3 year old around. Needs to prove he can go 2 turns. The Arabs have had poor success on the derby trail. This horse still has plenty of potential.

11 Barbaric
Impressive winner at a mile last time. Won easily. Looks like a horse that will relish the extra distance. Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn is next. Should face Lawyer Ron.

12 Songster
Another impressive maiden winner at Gulfstream. Turned back challengers in the lane and stayed straight as an arrow. Almost nailed the track record. Darley Stable has a nice one here.


(http://www.monmouthpark.com/news.asp?id=4858)

[Stevie Belmont]

Updated as of 2/19/06 Southwest Stakes canceled until next Saturday

1 First Samurai
First start of the year was a solid 2nd in the Hutcheson Stakes. Has done little wrong. Has to prove he is a 2 turn horse. Has done enough to earn the #1 spot.

2 Barbaro
Undefeated in 4 starts. Holy Bull win showed he is game. Matz will either point to the Fountain of Youth or the Florida Derby. Big potential. Has yet to run on a fast dirt track.

3 Achilles of Troy
Wins in Count Fleet and Whirlaway earned big speed numbers. Nice stride. That puts him high on the list. Plans have been reworked. Will take the Gotham/Wood route. Makes more sense the ship down to Florida.

4 Brother Derek
Horse is flying under the radar. Has been winning. Will contest the big California preps

5 Lawyer Ron
Powerful victory in the Risen Star. Horse has really blossomed as a 3 year old. If horse continues to improve, will be a force down the road.

6 Keyed Entry
One of 38 Pletcher horses on the derby trail. Broke track record, when beating First Samurai over a sloppy track in the Hutcheson Stakes. Will see if he can back that effort up.

7 Bob and John
Baffert colt continues to get better. Ran as fast as High Limit did in the Sham. Will take on the other top Cali horse in the future. Baffert has a way of getting the most out of his 3 year olds.

8 Private Vow
Had his problems in the Breeder's Sup Juvenile. Has worked well. Solid horse that could make a very big impact in May.

9 Your Tent or Mine
Another California speed ball. Will take on the other top Cali 3 year olds eventually. Could prove to be the best one of the group.

10 (new) Bluegrass Cat jumps into the top 12 after his win in the Sam Davis yesterday. One of a bunch of Pletcher nominees. He was able to fight off the 63-1 shot Deputy Glitters. This was a good win. Came with in a second of the track Record at Tampa Bay Downs. Resume is starting to look pretty good. Bred for a mile and a quarter.

11 (10) Henny Hughes
Poor work made him miss his start in Dubai. Can't ignore the speed of this horse. Could very well be the fastest 3 year old around. Needs to prove he can go 2 turns. The Arabs have had poor success on the derby trail. This horse still has plenty of potential.

12 (11) Barbaric
Impressive winner at a mile last time. Won easily. Looks like a horse that will relish the extra distance. Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn is next. Should face Lawyer Ron.

[rastajenk]

Why do you say Brother Derek has been "under the radar?" He is the de facto leader of the Cali contigent, if that doesn't put him under the gun I don't know what does. Ten-to-one ML in the Future Pool, drifted up to 16-1, but still, he's right there in the mix.

And Songster, well, impressive Gulfstream maiden winners are a dime a dozen. If he turns into something, I can say I heard it here first.

Otherwise, a pretty good snapshot of late February Derby Doings.

[Stevie Belmont]

I just think that at this particular point and time, he has not gotten as much attention as some of the other 3 year olds out there. On the east coast, you do here his name, but not nearly as much as some of the big east and south horses. After he beat Stevie Wonderboy, the race was still pretty much all about how Wonderboy did, not nearly as much on Derek. At any rate, he is more on the radar now then before. Certainly not obscure by any stretch.

As for Songster, I was impressed by his win for a few reasons. The way he was able to stay striaght in the stretch, and turn back challengers was very impressive by a first time starter. He showed a lot of promise first time out. Visually, it was a very good. Put him on the list, but in reality has not accomplished what others on that list have. I have seen many maiden breakers this year, his was very impressive. Lets see what happens.

[Stevie Belmont]

Minor update to list. Race of special not this weekend is the Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park.

(1) First Samurai First Start of the year was a solid 2nd in the Hutcheson Stakes. Has doen little wrong. Has tp prove he is a 2 turn horse. Has done enough to earn the # 1 spot. Fountain of Youth is up next.

(2) Barbaro- Undefeated in 4 starts. Holy Bull win showed he is game. Matz is pointing towards the Florida Derby. Big potential. Has yet to run on a fast dirt track.

(3) Achilles of Troy- Wins in the Count Fleet and Whirlawy earnes big speed figures. Nice stride. Thats puts him high on the list. Plans have been reworked. Will that the Gotham/Wood route to Kentucky if all goes well. Makes more sense then shipping to Florida at this late stage.

(4) Brother Derek- Horse was flying under the radar a bit. Has been getting more attetion of late. Will contest the big California preps.

(5) Lawyer Ron- Won the Southwest stakes in less then impressive fashion, however was game enough to hold off Steppenwolfer. Horse has a window in which he still can improve. Class tests down the road.

(6) Keyed Entry- One of 38 Todd Plechter horses on the derby trail. Broke a track record, wwhen beating First Samurai over a sloppy track in the Hutcheson Stakes. Will see if he can back that effort up. The Rebel Stakes is a possibility.

(7) Bob and John- Baffert colt continues to get better. Ran as fast as High Limit did in the Sham on the same day. Will take on other top Cali horses in the future, Baffert has a way of getting the most out of his 3 year olds.

(8) Private Vow- Had his problems in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Has worked well. Still not sure on when he will run. Questions are starting to loom. Still has big potential on the Derby trail.

(9) Your tent ot Mine- Another California speed ball. Will take on the other top Cali 3 year olds doen the road. Could prove to be the best one of the group.

(10) (new) New Bluegrass Cat- Jumps into the top 12 after his win in the Sam Davis yesterday. One of a large group of Plecther nominees. He was able to fight off 63-1 shot Deputy Glitters. This was a good win. Came with in a second of a track record at Tampa bay Downs.For what ever thats worth. Building on resume that continues to improve. Bred for a mile and a quarter.

(11) Henny Hughes- Poor work made him his last start in Dubai. Can't ignore the speed of this horse. Could very well be the fastest 3 year old around. Needs to prove he can handle 2 turns and stretch out that speed. The Arabs have had poor success on the derby trail. This horses still has plenty of potential.

(12) Barbaric- Impressive winner at a mile last out. Won easily. Looks like another horse horse that should relish the extra distance. Was to compete in the Southwest Stakes, but it was canceled due to poor track conditions. Will go in the Fountain Of Youth which is sahping up to be one of the best early 3 year old races.

[Stevie Belmont]

1) (4) Brother Derek-
The new top dog. Rated and drew off in the Santa Catalina in visually impressive fashion. Was never asked for his all out best, and still did it rather easily. At this point he has established himself as the top California horse, and the top 3 year old in the country. 3 f0r 3 in stakes this year. Everything is looking on schedule now. Santa Anita Derby next.

2) (1) First Samurai-
Well it looks like his first try around two turns was a pretty decent effort. Like the fact after being interfered with, he was able to comeback on again. Still will have to prove he will be able to handle longer distances. Did not disgrace himself. Only time will tell if we be able to go long. Blue Grass or Florida Derby next.

3) (2) Barbaro-
Undefeated in 4 starts. Holy Bull win showed he is game. Matz is pointing towards the Florida Derby. Has big potential. Horse has been senational on grass. Has yet to run on a fst dirt track. Matz still has not comitted to the derby. Will see how he handles his next start in the Florida Derby.

4) (3) Achilles of Troy-
Wins in the Count Fleet and Whirlaway earned big speed figures. Will stay in New York and take the Gotham/Wood route. Plans were to ship to Florida, but those ideas were put to rest. Gotham could shape to be his first class test.

5) (5) Lawyer Ron-
Winner of the Southwest Stakes. Set modest fractions and held off Steppenwolfer. Horse still has a window in which he can move foward. There will be bigger class tests down the road. Will see how good he really is soon. Rebel is next.

6) (6) Keyed Entry-
One of 38 Todd Pletcher horses on the derby trail. Broke a track record when beating First Samurai over a sloppy track in the Hutcheson Stakes. Will see if he can back that effort up. Rebel Stakes or Gotham next.

7) (7) Bob and John-
Baffert colt continues to get better. Ran as fast as High Limit did in the Sham on the same day. A showdown with Brother Derek is possible down the road. Baffert might not be as eager. San Felipe is next.

8) (9) Bluegrass Cat-
Moves up a notch on the list. Winner of the Sam Davis. Horse has a solid resume and solid breeding for longer races. Tampa Bay Derby next.

9) (new) Corinthian-
DQ'd from the top spot after hitting the wire first in the Fountain of Youth. Big sweeping move around the far turn was a nice thing to see. Erratic in the lane. Horse might need a little time. With the time, he should move foward. Wood Memorial next.

10) (new) My Golden Song-
Was moving well late in the Fountain of Youth. Another Pletcher 3 year old that will have a chance to get to Kentucky. Bit of a grinder type. Think he could handle extra distance with no problem.

11) (8) Private Vow-
Had his problems in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Still no garuntee of when he will run. Has a solid 2 year old foundation, buts needs to get going soon. Still has big potential.

12 (new) Exclusive Quality-
Son of world record holder on turf at a mile Elusive Quality, who is Smarty Jones dad. Broke a track record himself this Saturday in an allowance race, with a gutsty win of flashy Songter. Was able to get up in final strides to get the job done. Not sure what the plans are yet. No gauruntee he is even pointed for the spring classics, but the effort was solid. Pletcher is loaded.


Bubble horses-
Songster-Another strong effort in defeat, Strong Contender, Expect him to make some noise, Sharp Humor- Swale winner


Off the Top 12-
Barbican-fracture, Henny Hughes-Horse might not be right, Your Tent Or Mine- nothing happening with him.

[PaceAdvantage]

Are you writing these yourself Stevie?

[Stevie Belmont]

Yes all my material. Is that good or bad? lol. I pasted it from my page, instead of rewriting it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just curious....no biggie....

[cj]

Beyers from this weekend:

Laity 80
Brother Derek 102
Sharp Humor 97
First Samurai 94

[Que]

Stevie,

I pretty much agree with your rankings. Although I might have made a few position changes, its still a crap shoot at this point--and any of those horses could go all the way. The only horse I'm not sure about is PRIVATE VOW who hasn't ran race since last November. That's a long "vacation" for a Derby contender, who's last comment line started with a "bit rank early." Although PRIVATE VOW has been working out once a week since the end of January, but as you mentioned in your post, he needs to "get going soon" and turn in some big efforts to be a serious Derby threat.

Que.

[Stevie Belmont]

The Rebel has been mentioned. Has a solid 2 year old foundation, but I agree, needs to show soemthing, somewhere. Works have been sketchy. He dropped on the list. If nothing happens soon, he will be gone altogether.

Have gotten slack over First Samurai. Horse was not overly impressive in the Fountain of Youth. I do think thier could be some distance limitations. Could not see dropping further then 2. It was his 2nd start of the year. I think he will need to show much more in his next start to be a real derby threat.

[bpiets]

:cool: Like the way First Samurai is training ....He'll be just coming into top form for the Kentuck Derby......Songster ...isn't that a European Import...??....just had the thought because 'i' was looking at same about 2 weeks ago....and 'i' have 3 possibilites listed on a scrap of paper....must go find...

[Stevie Belmont]

Songter is a Florida bred out of Songandaprayer. Dam is Peppy Lapeu. Darley owns him and he is trained by Thomas Albertrani. Darley Stable is an arab operation. Dont think he was overseas at any point though.

[surfdog89]

How about Sacred Light who was closing fast on Brother D..........

[Stevie Belmont]

I really don't think Sacred Light was closing on Brother Derek all that much late. He made a pretty big move at the top of the stretch under stong urging, and was being asked for everything. At the wire he was about a length away, but would not have caught Derek. Derek was not all out, but did work for the win. Sacred Light flattened a bit in the end. Still, not a bad effort. It was taxing though. This is a horse that might appreciate a different track, never easy closing on that hard Santa Anita surface.

[bpiets]

Songter is a Florida bred out of Songandaprayer. Dam is Peppy Lapeu. Darley owns him and he is trained by Thomas Albertrani. Darley Stable is an arab operation. Dont think he was overseas at any point though.
:cool: Thanks.....

[RuffianSam]

I almost bought a West Point Thoroughbred and we all know Flashy Bull is one of them. I was encouraged by his run in the FOY after drawing the 10 spot. What are your thoughts of him? His only win was his MSW but he was 2nd to Bluegrass Cat in the Remsen and has run competitively for his other races. Next stop is likely Florida Derby then the KY Derby. What are everyones thoughts on him?

[Stevie Belmont]

The run in the Fountain of Youth was a good try. Should have some room for improvement. Not the strongest race we have seen. Needs to show a bit more, but this one holds some promise, as so many 3 year olds do right now. Not in the top tier of derby horses yet. If anything, moving in the right direction. Should be ready to run a good one next out. West Point Stables would love to at least get him to Kentucky.

[surfdog89]

I want to see Sweet Northern Light run..... next start likely will be the Gotham... 3-18......:cool: Have him in my stable

[surfdog89]

Isn't Your tent or mine out with a foot problem...

[Sundown]

Yes, he's off the trail.

http://thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=62586&subsec=2

[bpiets]

Why do you say Brother Derek has been "under the radar?" He is the de facto leader of the Cali contigent, if that doesn't put him under the gun I don't know what does. Ten-to-one ML in the Future Pool, drifted up to 16-1, but still, he's right there in the mix.

And Songster, well, impressive Gulfstream maiden winners are a dime a dozen. If he turns into something, I can say I heard it here first.

Otherwise, a pretty good snapshot of late February Derby Doings.
He's just working toward a PEAKING condition to at least 'win' or end up in the top three in the tri. races....conditioning is everything and such get Beat' by lessor 'nags' who have no chance of entering the tri. via the entry credentials....and like Brother Derek the Odss go up and there is more ncertainty of what 'such' will do in the races leading up to the tri. in the mind of the bettors.....( is one way to evaluate the threads question..)....

[bpiets]

I want to see Sweet Northern Light run..... next start likely will be the Gotham... 3-18......:cool: Have him in my stable
So do I ....Well Behind ALL of 'my' Contest selections..... :cool:

[bpiets]

Why do you say Brother Derek has been "under the radar?" He is the de facto leader of the Cali contigent, if that doesn't put him under the gun I don't know what does. Ten-to-one ML in the Future Pool, drifted up to 16-1, but still, he's right there in the mix.

And Songster, well, impressive Gulfstream maiden winners are a dime a dozen. If he turns into something, I can say I heard it here first.

Otherwise, a pretty good snapshot of late February Derby Doings.
What will the odds be when SONGSTER wins...????.....

[bpiets]

Yes all my material. Is that good or bad? lol. I pasted it from my page, instead of rewriting it.
'He' wants to have time to read all the huge responses from PaceAdvantage..... :D

[Stevie Belmont]

sBig weekend, Gotham, Rebel,Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe all on tap this busy prep weekend.



1) (4) Brother Derek-
The new top dog. Rated and drew off in the Santa Catalina in visually impressive fashion. Was never asked for his all out best, and still did it rather easily. At this point he has established himself as the top California horse, and the top 3 year old in the country. 3 for 3 in stakes this year. Everything is looking on schedule now. Santa Anita Derby next.
2) (3) Barbaro-
Undefeated in 4 starts. Holy Bull win showed he is game. Matz is pointing towards the Florida Derby. Has big potential. Horse has been senational on grass. Has yet to run on a fast dirt track. Matz still has not comitted to the derby. Will see how he handles his next start in the Florida Derby.

3) (4) Achilles of Troy-
Wins in the Count Fleet and Whirlaway earned big speed figures. Will stay in New York and take the Gotham/Wood route. A solid performance this weekend will prove this horse is for real. Gotham will be his first class test.

4) (5) Lawyer Ron-
Winner of the Southwest Stakes. Set modest fractions and held off Steppenwolfer. Horse still has a window in which he can move foward. There will be bigger class tests down the road. Will see how good he really is soon. Worked a strong 59 the other day. Indicating he is ready to go. Rebel is next.

5) (6) Keyed Entry-
One of 38 Todd Pletcher horses on the derby trail. Broke a track record when beating First Samurai over a sloppy track in the Hutcheson Stakes. Will see if he can back that effort up. Gotham next.
6) (2) First Samurai-
Well it looks like his first try around two turns was a pretty decent effort. Like the fact after being interfered with, he was able to comeback on again. Still will have to prove he will be able to handle longer distances. Did not disgrace himself. Only time will tell if we be able to go long. Blue Grass or Florida Derby next

7) (7) Bob and John-
Baffert colt continues to get better. Ran as fast as High Limit did in the Sham on the same day. A showdown with Brother Derek is possible down the road. Baffert might not be as eager. San Felipe is next.


8) (9) Bluegrass Cat-
Moves up a notch on the list. Winner of the Sam Davis. Horse has a solid resume and solid breeding for longer races. Tampa Bay Derby next.

9) (new) Corinthian-
DQ'd from the top spot after hitting the wire first in the Fountain of Youth. Big sweeping move around the far turn was a nice thing to see. Erratic in the lane. Horse might need a little time. With the time, he should move foward. Wood Memorial next.

10) (new) My Golden Song-
Was moving well late in the Fountain of Youth. Another Pletcher 3 year old that will have a chance to get to Kentucky. Bit of a grinder type. Think he could handle extra distance with no problem. Florida Derby possible.

11) (8) Private Vow-
Had his problems in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Still no garuntee of when he will run. Has a solid 2 year old foundation, buts needs to get going soon. Still has big potential. Rebel next.


12) (new) Cause to Believe-
Winner of the California Derby over the weekend at Golden Gate in a snappy 1:41. Was last early, raced into contention and blew by the rest, winning by 4 lengths. Grey son of Maria's Mon, who was Monarcho's dad. Stamina on both sides. Impressive stretch move is a promising sign. Illinois Derby next.



Bubble horses-Strong Contender, Expect him to make some noise, Sharp Humor- Swale winner, Flashy Bull-2nd place finish in Fountain of Youth






Off the Top 12


Barbican-fracture, Henny Hughes-Horse might not be right, Exclusive Quality- Pointing towards Bay Shore and rematch with the speedy Songster

[Stevie Belmont]

This weeks main prep will be the Lanes End at Rubberway Park in Kentucky.

1) (4) Lawyer Ron-
Earned the new top spot this week. Big Rebel win was impressive. Was able to win in a new way ,by rating nicely behind the early pace setters. Powered through the lane for the victory. Something you really want to see in a horse that intends to run in the Kentucky Derby. Beating a decent field. Well seasoned colt has the most experience so far of any 3 year old. Lots to like.


2) (1) Brother Derek-
Spent a week in the top spot, before getting bumped by the Lawyer. Rated and drew off in the Santa Catalina in visually impressive fashion. Was never asked for his all out best, and still did it rather easily. At this point he has established himself as the top California horse, and the top 3 year old in the country. 3 for 3 in stakes this year. Everything is looking on schedule now. Santa Anita Derby next.

3) (5)Keyed Entry-
Ran a strong second in the Gotham Stakes. Chased a relatively slow pace by winner Like Now. Was a game, closing second. His first try around two turns was a success, and showed no ill effects after his huge performance in the Hutcheson. Developing nicely. This looks to be Pletchers best hope as of now. Wood Memorial is the probable next start.

4) (2) Barbaro-
Undefeated in 4 starts. Holy Bull win showed he is game. Matz is pointing towards the Florida Derby. Has big potential. Horse has been senational on grass. Has yet to run on a fast dirt track. Matz still has not comitted to the derby. Will see how he handles his next start in the Florida Derby.

5) (6) First Samurai-
Well it looks like his first try around two turns was a pretty decent effort. Like the fact after being interfered with, he was able to comeback on again. Still will have to prove he will be able to handle longer distances. Did not disgrace himself. Only time will tell if we be able to go long. Blue Grass or Florida Derby next
6)(new) A.P Warrior-

New to the derby 12. Expensive 2 year old out of A.P Indy looked like a dud in his last two. Finally showed signs of life in winning the San Felipe, holding off a game Point Determined. First start since January 17th. Shirrefs has another Kentucky Derby hopeful.

7)(new) Point Determined-
Ran second to A.P. Warrior. Game effort in which had a bit of a problem on the rail. Has been running some nice races in California. Ran great in his first attempt in Graded Stakes company. Son of Point Given could very well turn out to be the best of Bob Bafferts hopefuls. Should be pointed towards the Santa Anita Derby. Shaping up to be a very nice race.

8) (9) Corinthian-
DQ'd from the top spot after hitting the wire first in the Fountain of Youth. Big sweeping move around the far turn was a nice thing to see. Erratic in the lane. Horse might need a little time. With the time, he should move foward. Wood Memorial next.

9) (10) My Golden Song-
Was moving well late in the Fountain of Youth. Another Pletcher 3 year old that will have a chance to get to Kentucky. Bit of a grinder type. Think he could handle extra distance with no problem. Florida Derby possible.
10) (12) Cause to Believe-

Winner of the California Derby over the weekend at Golden Gate in a snappy 1:41. Was last early, raced into contention and blew by the rest, winning by 4 lengths. Grey son of Maria's Mon, who was Monarcho's dad. Stamina on both sides. Impressive stretch move is a promising sign. Illinois Derby next.

11)(7)Bob and John-

Horse did not disgrace himself in the San Felipe. Ran a respectable 3rd to the 2 horses that made the list. He has a nice resume. Another candidate for the Santa Anita Derby.

12 (new)Deputy Glitters-

Almost upset Bluegrass Cat at 60-1 in the Sam Davis. Yesterday in the Tampa Bay derby, got the job done. Proving he might be better then we originally thought. Beat Bluegrass Cat by a solid length. Horse is starting to get better at the right time. Might have been the weakest prep of the weekend however. Gets the benefit of the doubt.




Bubble horses-
Strong Contender, Look foward to seeing him in the Lanes End this Saturday, Sharp Humor- Swale winner, Flashy Bull-2nd place finish in Fountain of Youth,Like Now-Gotham winner got, need to see more from him,Sweetnorthernsaint-Nice try in his stretch out in Gotham


Off the Top 12
Barbican-fracture, Henny Hughes-Horse might not be right, Exclusive Quality- Pointing towards Bay Shore and rematch with the speedy Songster, Achilles of Troy-Possibility horse ran sore, had a lot of potential. Looks like he could be eliminated from the trail however, Private Vow- Looked nothing more then average in his return, did not expect the best of efforts, does not look like he will be at his best for the derby. Bluegrass Cat- Expected by many to romp in the Tampa Bay Derby, was all out in the lane to finish second. Will have to do better.

[Stevie Belmont]

A couple of minor changes. Florida Derby this weekend. No TV. Usually this one was always televised.



1) (1) Lawyer Ron-Stays on top. Big Rebel win was impressive. Was able to win in a new way ,by rating nicely behind the early pace setters. Powered through the lane for the victory. Something you really want to see in a horse that intends to run in the Kentucky Derby. Beating a decent field. Well seasoned colt has the most experience so far of any 3 year old. Lots to like.


2)(2) Brother Derek-Spent a week in the top spot, before getting bumped by the Lawyer. Rated and drew off in the Santa Catalina in visually impressive fashion. Was never asked for his all out best, and still did it rather easily. At this point he has established himself as the top California horse, and the top 3 year old in the country. 3 for 3 in stakes this year. Everything is looking on schedule now. Continues to work well. Has not been challenged yet. Santa Anita Derby next.

3) (3)Keyed Entry- Ran a strong second in the Gotham Stakes. Chased a relatively slow pace by winner Like Now. Was a game, closing second. His first try around two turns was a success, and showed no ill effects after his huge performance in the Hutcheson. Developing nicely. This looks to be Pletchers best hope as of now. Wood Memorial is the probable next start.


4) (4) Barbaro-Undefeated in 4 starts. Holy Bull win showed he is game. Matz is pointing towards the Florida Derby. Has big potential. Horse has been senational on grass. Has yet to run on a fast dirt track. Matz still has not comitted to the derby. Will see how he handles his next start in the Florida Derby.

5) (5) First Samurai-Well it looks like his first try around two turns was a pretty decent effort. Like the fact after being interfered with, he was able to comeback on again. Still will have to prove he will be able to handle longer distances. Did not disgrace himself. Only time will tell if we be able to go long. Florida Derby next

6)(6) A.P WarriorNew to the derby 12. Expensive 2 year old out of A.P Indy looked like a dud in his last two. Finally showed signs of life in winning the San Felipe, holding off a game Point Determined. First start since January 17th. Shirrefs has another Kentucky Derby hopeful.

7)(7) Point Determined-Ran second to A.P. Warrior. Game effort in which had a bit of a problem on the rail. Has been running some nice races in California. Ran great in his first attempt in Graded Stakes company. Son of Point Given could very well turn out to be the best of Bob Bafferts hopefuls.

8) (9) My Golden Song- Was moving well late in the Fountain of Youth. Another Pletcher 3 year old that will have a chance to get to Kentucky. Bit of a grinder type. Think he could handle extra distance with no problem. Florida Derby possible.

9) (10) Cause to Believe- Winner of the California Derby over the weekend at Golden Gate in a snappy 1:41. Was last early, raced into contention and blew by the rest, winning by 4 lengths. Grey son of Maria's Mon, who was Monarcho's dad. Stamina on both sides. Impressive stretch move is a promising sign. Illinois Derby next.

10)(11)Bob and John- Horse did not disgrace himself in the San Felipe. Ran a respectable 3rd to the 2 horses that made the list. He has a nice resume. Another candidate for the Santa Anita Derby.

11)(12)Deputy Glitters-Almost upset Bluegrass Cat at 60-1 in the Sam Davis. Yesterday in the Tampa Bay derby, got the job done. Proving he might be better then we originally thought. Beat Bluegrass Cat by a solid length. Horse is starting to get better at the right time. Might have been the weakest prep of the weekend however. Gets the benefit of the doubt.

12(Back on) Achilles of Troy- Had his issues in the Gotham. Speculation that the horse was sore. We will give this colt the benefit of the doubt. Stumbled out of the gate and was wide through out. Still ran two very fast races early on in the year. Can redeem himself in the Arkansas Derby. Needs a big effort. Lacks earnings, and Lawyer Ron is rolling.

Bubble Horses



Strong Contender- Did not draw into the Lanes End, will try the Wood Memorial, Sharp Humor- Swale winner, Flashy Bull-2nd place finish in Fountain of Youth,Like Now-Gotham winner got, need to see more from him,had it easy on the lead,Sweetnorthernsaint-Nice try in his stretch out in Gotham,Discreet Cat-Winner of the UAE Derby.



Off the Top 12


Barbican-fracture, Henny Hughes-Horse might not be right, Exclusive Quality- Pointing towards Bay Shore and rematch with the speedy Songster, Private Vow- Looked nothing more then average in his return, did not expect the best of efforts, does not look like he will be at his best for the derby. Bluegrass Cat- Expected by many to romp in the Tampa Bay Derby, was all out in the lane to finish second. Will have to do better, although might have struggled with surface, Corinthian-Off the trail with a fracture.

[Red Knave]

Bluegrass Cat- Expected by many to romp in the Tampa Bay Derby, was all out in the lane to finish second. Will have to do better, although might have struggled with surface I don't thing the surface was the problem since he won the prep for the TBD, I read that he tossed a front shoe in the race.

[samyn on the green]

Frankie came through the FL Derby will be shown live on USA network.


A couple of minor changes. Florida Derby this weekend. No TV. Usually this one was always televised.

[Stevie Belmont]

I don't thing the surface was the problem since he won the prep for the TBD, I read that he tossed a front shoe in the race.

We can give this one a pass. I would really like to see a strong Bluegrass. So we will see. Ill be honest, his races prior have not been overwhelming.

[Stevie Belmont]

Frankie came through the FL Derby will be shown live on USA network.

Uncle Frank saves the day. This day anyway.

[JPinMaryland]

does someone have a more complete tv schedule than the on on about.com? For instance, is WIre to Wire now on at 5 pm? someone said it was. Just the cable schedule I dont have THR or whatever...

[Stevie Belmont]

I've seen it scheduled on ESPN for this time, for some time.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tvlistings/scheduleWeek?sport=EQ

[JPinMaryland]

what about Wire to Wire? Is that now on at 5 pm? I saw someone post it on a message board now I cant find it. Can you confirm?

[Stevie Belmont]

Huge prep weekend. The Wood Memorial, Bluergrass and Santa Anita Derby highlight this weekends action.




1) (1) Lawyer Ron-Stays on top. Big Rebel win was impressive. Was able to win in a new way ,by rating nicely behind the early pace setters. Powered through the lane for the victory. Something you really want to see in a horse that intends to run in the Kentucky Derby. Beating a decent field. Well seasoned colt has the most experience so far of any 3 year old. Lots to like.
2) (4) Barbaro- Wins the Florida Derby off an 8 week break, and worked hard in the stretch to do it. Finally raced over a fast dirt track, and he got the job done in smashing style. Not only did he win from the far outside, he chased moderate fractions at best. You can certainly say he was tested. No cake walk in wearing down a game Sharp Humor. He came home fast enough to warrant serious concern on Derby Day. Now the questions. Will he be sharp on derby day? Huge effort off a layoff. And another long break going in. He handled the 8 week break with no problem. The real question is, can he improve? Will be very interested to see how Matz works him. History is against him.
3)(2) Brother Derek-Spent a week in the top spot, before getting bumped by the Lawyer. Rated and drew off in the Santa Catalina in visually impressive fashion. Was never asked for his all out best, and still did it rather easily. At this point he has established himself as the top California horse, and the top 3 year old in the country. 3 for 3 in stakes this year. Everything is looking on schedule now. Continues to work well. Has not been challenged yet. Santa Anita Derby next.
4) (3)Keyed Entry- Ran a strong second in the Gotham Stakes. Chased a relatively slow pace by winner Like Now. Was a game, closing second. His first try around two turns was a success, and showed no ill effects after his huge performance in the Hutcheson. Developing nicely. This looks to be Pletchers best hope as of now. Wood Memorial is the probable next start.
5) (5) First Samurai-Well it looks like his first try around two turns was a pretty decent effort. Like the fact after being interfered with, he was able to comeback on again. Still will have to prove he will be able to handle longer distances. Did not disgrace himself. Only time will tell if we be able to go long. Blue Grass next
6)(6) A.P WarriorNew to the derby 12. Expensive 2 year old out of A.P Indy looked like a dud in his last two. Finally showed signs of life in winning the San Felipe, holding off a game Point Determined. First start since January 17th. Shirrefs has another Kentucky Derby hopeful.
7)(7) Point Determined-Ran second to A.P. Warrior. Game effort in which had a bit of a problem on the rail. Has been running some nice races in California. Ran great in his first attempt in Graded Stakes company. Son of Point Given could very well turn out to be the best of Bob Bafferts hopefuls.
8) (9) My Golden Song- Was moving well late in the Fountain of Youth. Another Pletcher 3 year old that will have a chance to get to Kentucky. Bit of a grinder type. Think he could handle extra distance with no problem.
9) (10) Cause to Believe- Winner of the California Derby over the weekend at Golden Gate in a snappy 1:41. Was last early, raced into contention and blew by the rest, winning by 4 lengths. Grey son of Maria's Mon, who was Monarcho's dad. Stamina on both sides. Impressive stretch move is a promising sign. Illinois Derby next.
10)(11)Bob and John- Horse did not disgrace himself in the San Felipe. Ran a respectable 3rd to the 2 horses that made the list. He has a nice resume. Wood Memorial instead of Santa Anita.
11)(12)Deputy Glitters-Almost upset Bluegrass Cat at 60-1 in the Sam Davis. Yesterday in the Tampa Bay derby, got the job done. Proving he might be better then we originally thought. Beat Bluegrass Cat by a solid length. Horse is starting to get better at the right time. Might have been the weakest prep of the weekend however. Gets the benefit of the doubt. Wood Memorial is next up
12(new) Sharp Humor- Dog fight in the lane with Barbaro. Horse ran a very game second in the Florida Derby. Will get a 5 week break until derby day. The effort should have seasoned him nicely. Two big races in arow. The Swale and now the Florida Derby. Got easier fractions in this race. Don't think they got to the bottom of him in the Florida Derby. Could it be another Funny Cide? The odds will be right for sure. Horse has a some upside.


Bubble Horses

Strong Contender- Did not draw into the Lanes End,Blue Grass next, Flashy Bull- Unimpressive in Florida Derby, Like Now-Gotham winner, need to see more from him,had it easy on the lead, Sweetnorthernsaint-Nice try in his stretch out in Gotham,Illionois Derby next, Discreet Cat-Impressive winner of the UAE Derby.



Off the Top 12


Barbican-fracture, Henny Hughes- Finished till summer, Exclusive Quality- Pointing towards Bay Shore and rematch with the speedy Songster, Private Vow- Looked nothing more then average in his return, did not expect the best of efforts, does not look like he will be at his best for the derby. Bluegrass Cat- Expected by many to romp in the Tampa Bay Derby, was all out in the lane to finish second. Problems with a shoe in the race, will run in the Bluegrass. Big effort would move him up. Corinthian-Off the trail with a fracture. Achilles of Troy- Will have to show something in the Arkansas Derby.

[Ron]

Isn't the Blue Grass next week?

[Joe L.]

Yep,

Wood, Illinois and Santa Anita Derby's this Sat 4/8

BlueGrass and Arkansas Derby next Sat 4/15

[Stevie Belmont]

Screwed uP. Bluegrass is next week. Still thinking when the Wood,Bluegrass and Ark derby were all on the sameday. Illinois Derby is this Saturday as well.

[Stevie Belmont]

1) (1) Lawyer Ron-Worked a fast 59 the other day, idicating his sharpeness. Really like to see those fast works this time of the year. Well seasoned colt. Will garner heavey attention in the Arkansas Derby. Another strong effort, and there is little reason not to believe he won't run big again, he will be the co favorite with Brother Derek, in what is shaping up the a classic showdown.
2)(3) Brother Derek- Moves back up to number 2. Made a statement in the Santa Anita Derby. Naysayers will say he only beat four horses, but do you think the connections of the others were really looking foward to going against this guy? He was able to go easy early, and then turn it on and come home like a frieght train in 36 and change, without ever being asked for his all out best. Love the fact he reserved energy early and came home very fast. Something he might need to do in the Derby. Should be in the mix late for sure. Also shows he might not have to be in the lead early. Bred to run all day as he is a dual qaulifier. The test in the Derby will be much tougher, but there is little doubt that this guy can get it done.
2) (4) Barbaro- Wins the Florida Derby off an 8 week break, and worked hard in the stretch to do it. Finally raced over a fast dirt track, and he got the job done in smashing style. Not only did he win from the far outside, he chased moderate fractions at best. You can certainly say he was tested. No cake walk in wearing down a game Sharp Humor. He came home fast enough to warrant serious concern on Derby Day. Now the questions. Will he be sharp on derby day? Huge effort off a layoff. And another long break going in. He handled the 8 week break with no problem. The real question is, can he improve? Will be very interested to see how Matz works him. History is against him.
4) (5) First Samurai-The Bluegrass Stakes this week will be the biggest test yet for this horse, if he intends to be a factor in the Kentucky Derby. Still needs to prove he can handle two turns. The questions still loos after the FOY. Horse has worked well, but it's time for him to do something big. And it won't be easy. The Bluegrass will have Strong Contender and Bluegrass Cat. HAs worked well.
5)(7) Point Determined-Looked like he was making up some ground on Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby. He was all out in the lane. He did pass Brother Derek in the gallop out, problem is Brother Derek was never asked for his best and was being pulled up even before the finish line was approached. Looks can be decieving, it was still a good effort. A new surface will help him.
6(12) Sharp Humor- Jumps up to number 6. Horse looked pretty good in his battle with Barbaro. Will go into the Derby off a 5 week layoff. History indicates he has little chance. He is moving in the right direction, and the break could very well help him after two big efforts in a row. Another Funny Cide. You never know. The odds will certianly be right.
7)(new) Discreet Cat- Should have made the list last week. Very talented colt. Shined at Saratoga in the summer. Sheiks took noticed and snagged him for big bucks. Impressive winner of the UAE Derby. The Desert/Kentucky route has not been a successful one in the past. If they opt to run him, and I think they very well might, this could be there best hope in years.
8)(9)Bob and John-The Wood Memorial winner got the job done in the slop. Was not overwhelming in winning, but got the job done. Horse has been beat by Brother Derek. Baffert escaped east for his talented colt, and came away with the win. Headed to Kentucky.
9(new) Jazil- Seemed to be the only horse doing any running late in the Wood. There is little doubt he would have gotten to the winner with any extra distance. Track played to speed for most of the day, so it might be worth taking note of closing late kick. The big question will be the graded earnings. If he has enough, he will run. A longshot chance for sure. Kiaran almost got the job done last year at 73-1.
10)(6) A.P Warrior- Ran a reasonable third to Brother Derek. Will need to improve off that effort. Has class. Another who should enjoy a new track surface. Sheriffs gave us Giacomo last year. Well bred colt, and a good trainer is a good combination.
11(new) Sweetnorthernsaint- Runaway winner of the Illinois Derby. Proved the Gotham was no fluke. Was able to set moderate fractions and draw off. Time was the greatest, but did not have to too much in the win. Horse has ran well through his three year old campaign. Could be a pace factor in the Kentucky Derby. And it could be a hot pace.
12(3)Keyed Entry- Fell the most of any horse. Had the lead in the Wood before giving it up rather badly in the stretch. Distance was a concern before the races, even more so now. Doubt he would want anything to do with a mile in a quarter, much less a mile and an eighth. Connections will decide to go foward to Kentucky. Little doubt he is very good sprinter. Still could prove is wrong.


Bubble Horses


Strong Contender- Did not draw into the Lanes End,Blue Grass next, Big potentialFlashy Bull- Unimpressive in Florida Derby, Like Now-Has to prove the Gotham was no fluke, High Cotton-Talented colt.


Off the Top 12


Barbican-fracture, Henny Hughes-Finished till summer, Exclusive Quality- No derby trail, Private Vow- Looked nothing more then average in his return, did not expect the best of efforts, does not look like he will be at his best for the derby. Bluegrass Cat- Expected by many to romp in the Tampa Bay Derby, was all out in the lane to finish second. Problems with a shoe in the race, will run in the Bluegrass. Big race and hes back on. Capable Corinthian-Off the trail with a fracture. Achilles of Troy- He was busted up after all. Cause to Believe-No big kick this time, My Golden Song-Showed little in Illinois Derby, Deputy Glitters-Failed to duplicate his Tampa Bay derby win

[the_fat_man]

12 (new)Deputy Glitters-

Almost upset Bluegrass Cat at 60-1 in the Sam Davis. Yesterday in the Tampa Bay derby, got the job done. Proving he might be better then we originally thought. Beat Bluegrass Cat by a solid length. Horse is starting to get better at the right time. Might have been the weakest prep of the weekend however. Gets the benefit of the doubt.


Bluegrass Cat- Expected by many to romp in the Tampa Bay Derby, was all out in the lane to finish second. Will have to do better.



When I watched the replay of the Tampa Bay Derby in preparation for the Wood, I came away thinking Deputy Glitters had no shot (in the Wood --didn't think he could go the distance), and that Bluegrass Cat wins the race if it's an extra 1/16th.

It appeared, IMO, that Bluegrass Cat was in best stride of the 2 late and was gaining on DG, even though he couldn't run with DG entering the stretch.

Interested in seeing what he does in the Bluegrass.

[Stevie Belmont]

I agree with Bluegrass Cat. Not sold on him. Needs to run a big race in the Bluegrass for any serious thought. Had shoe problems in the Tampa Derby.

[rrbauer]

Here's the closing odds from the final Futures Pool. While I don't know much about some of these, the potential favs ended up with reasonable prices IMHO.

Horse.........Final Odds
Brother Derek 5-1
Lawyer Ron 8-1
Discreet Cat 9-1
Barbaro 9-1
Sweetnorthernsaint 10-1
Point Determined 13-1
First Samurai 13-1
Bob and John 13-1
Bluegrass Cat 15-1
All Other 3YO's 15-1
A.P. Warrior 24-1
Cause to Believe 24-1
Private Vow 25-1
Strong Contender 25-1
Keyed Entry 32-1
Sharp Humor 35-1
Sunriver 38-1
Steppenwolfer 47-1
Sacred Light 55-1
Like Now 70-1
Deputy Glitters 72-1
With a City 89-1
My Golden Song 99-1

[Stevie Belmont]

1) (1) Lawyer Ron-Co leader of the list this week. Winner of the Arkansas Derby. Will keep him in the number 1 spot, despite the Beyer boys thoughts. Lawyer Ron is now undefeated on a fast dirt surface. Showed good speed early, but came home a little slower then some might have hoped for. Mckee worked the horse a little harder then he had to in the stretch. Final time of 1:51 will have many running away. Surface is not the fastest. Set early fast fractions, and no one was able to come get him. Still feel horse is peak form, and still room for improvement. Mckee might not want to get caught up in the early pace of the derby, could prove fatal. Horse will need to reserve energy somehow, did in in th Rebel. Horse will be 2nd choice on derby day.
1)(2) Brother Derek- Thats right, we have two number 1's this week. What a novel idea, why not? Made a statement in the Santa Anita Derby. Naysayers will say he only beat four horses, but do think the connections of the others were really looking foward to going against this guy? He was able to go easy early, and then turn it on and come home like a frieght train in 36 and change, without ever being asked for his all out best. Love the fact he reserved energy early and came home very fast. Something he might need to do in the Derby. Should be in the mix late for sure. Also shows he might not have to be in the lead early. Bred to run all day as he is a dual qaulifier. The test in the Derby will be much tougher, but there is little doubt that this guy can get it done.
2) (3) Barbaro- Nothing new with him.Wins the Florida Derby off an 8 week break, and worked hard in the stretch to do it. Finally raced over a fast dirt track, and he got the job done in smashing style. Not only did he win from the far outside, he chased moderate fractions at best. You can certainly say he was tested. No cake walk in wearing down a game Sharp Humor. He came home fast enough to warrant serious concern on Derby Day. Now the questions. Will he be sharp on derby day? Huge effort off a layoff. And another long break going in. He handled the 8 week break with no problem. The real question is, can he improve? Will be very interested to see how Matz works him. History is against him.
3(6) Sharp Humor- Moves up another slot. Continues to work very fast in the morning. Horse looked pretty good in his battle with Barbaro. Will go into the Derby off a 5 week layoff. History indicates he has little chance. He is moving in the right direction, and the break could very well help him after two big efforts in a row. Another Funny Cide. You never know. The odds will certianly be right.
4)(5) Point Determined-Looked like he was making up some ground on Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby. He was all out in the lane. He did pass Brother Derek in the gallop out, problem is Brother Derek was never asked for his best and was being pulled up even before the finish line was approached. Looks can be decieving, it was still a good effort. A new surface will help him.
5(new)Sinsister Minister- Took the express lane of the freeway called Keeneland all away around to score a 9 length win in the Bluegrass. Earned a huge speed fig in the process. The highest of any three year old up to this point. Putting another feather in the cap of the Californian contingent this year. We have seen many top figs, only to go down the tubes on different surfaces. He could very well be better then we think. He will be part of what looks to be a very lively early pace in the Kentucky Derby. He will be sent right out of the gate, and thats a scary thought if gets a way with it.
6)(7) Discreet Cat- Ships to Kentucky on April 23. They say he's a question for the race, don't believe it. He will run. Very talented colt. Shined at Saratoga in the summer. Sheiks took noticed and snagged him for big bucks. Impressive winner of the UAE Derby. The Desert/Kentucky route has not been a successful one in the past. If they opt to run him, and I think they very well might, this could be there best hope in years.
7(11) Sweetnorthernsaint- Runaway winner of the Illinois Derby. Proved the Gotham was no fluke. Was able to set moderate fractions and draw off. Earned a big speed figure. Horse has ran well through his three year old campaign. Could be a pace factor in the Kentucky Derby. And it could be a hot pace.
8)(10) A.P Warrior- Ran a reasonable third to Brother Derek. Will need to improve off that effort. Has class. Another who should enjoy a new track surface. Sheriffs gave us Giacomo last year. Well bred colt, and a good trainer is a good combination.
9)(8)Bob and John-The Wood Memorial winner got the job done in the slop. Was not overwhelming in winning, but got the job done. Horse has been beat by Brother Derek. Baffert escaped east for his talented colt, and came away with the win. Headed to Kentucky.
10(9) Jazil- Seemed to be the only horse doing any running late in the Wood. There is little doubt he would have gotten to the winner with any extra distance. Track played to speed for most of the day, so it might be worth taking note of closing late kick. The big question will be the graded earnings. If he has enough, he will run. A longshot chance for sure. Kiaran almost got the job done last year at 73-1.
11(new)Steppenwolfer- Late running son gets on to the list after his second palce finish in the Arkansas Derby. Has been chasing Lawyer Ron all winter and spring. Made up some ground late in the Arkansas Derby. Has a running style thata should benefit him in the Kentucky Derby. His late running style could very well have him in the mix late under the ideal set up.
12(new)Private Vow-Showed signs of life in the Arkansas Derby. Was able to get into good position and make a bid in the stretch. At one point looked as if he might actually come at Lawyer Ron. Horse with out a doubt needed the race. Still trying to make up for lost time. Will work up to the Kentucky Derby. Horse should move foward, the question is how much can he move foward. Expect Assmussen to continue to work him and attempt to have him as close to his best as possible on Derby day. Still a tall order, but this colt has a solid foundation.





Bubble Horses


Flashy Bull- Unimpressive in Florida Derby, Like Now-Has to prove the Gotham was no fluke, Showing Up- Will need to show up in the Lexington





Off the Trail

Barbican-fracture, Henny Hughes-Finished till summer, Exclusive Quality- No derby trail, Bluegrass Cat- Another less then desireable race in the Bluegrass ,First Samurai-Needed a big Bluegrass, did not happen, off the trail, Keyed Entry- Still being pointed to Kentucky, still big concerns over distance limitations, Corinthian-Off the trail with a fracture. Achilles of Troy- He was busted up after all., My Golden Song-Showed little in Illinois Derby, Deputy Glitters-Failed to duplicate his Tampa Bay derby win,Strong Contender-Could not get the earnings up in the Bluegrass.