Test Your Trainer IQ

[Que]

Here's an interesting test to determine your trainer/handicapping IQ. (Note. The trainer stats/answers are from my records over the last three years.)

1. Bob Baffert has shown a flat profit to win (+1%) in which of the following categories of races?

A. Maiden races
B. Maiden Claiming races
C. Allowance races
D. Graded Stakes races

2. D. Wayne Lukas has the highest ROI to win (0%) with horses possessing which of the following running styles?

A. Early (E)
B. Early Presser (EP)
C. Presser (P)
D. Presser Sustained (PS)
E. Sustained (S)
F. Slow Sustained (SS)

3. D. Wayne Lukas has the highest win percentage (23.4%) with horses possessing which of the following running styles?

A. Early (E)
B. Early Presser (EP)
C. Presser (P)
D. Presser Sustained (PS)
E. Sustained (S)
F. Slow Sustained (SS)

4. Nicholas Zito has shown a flat bet profit to win with all of the following jockeys except:

A. Javier Castellanos
B. Aaron Gryder
C. Corey Nakatani
D. Shane Shellers

5. Steven Asmussen has the highest ROI to win (+13.8%) under which of the following circumstances:

A. First-time blinkers
B. Second-time blinkers
C. Blinkers on (not first or second-time)
D. Removing blinkers
E. No blinkers

6. Steven Asmussen has the highest win percentage (21.73%) under which of the following circumstances:

A. First-time blinkers
B. Second-time blinkers
C. Blinkers on (not first or second-time)
D. Removing blinkers
E. No blinkers

7. Todd Meachum has shown a flat bet profit to win (+18.5%) with horses that finished 1st or 2nd in the previous race and are returning within:

A. 1-7 days
B. 8-14 days
C. 15-21 days
D. 22-28 days

Two part question. Bernard Flint has shown a flat bet profit with horses showing their last workout 6-7 days ago. From these horses,

8. ... horses returning within ______ days have shown the highest ROI (+68%).

A. 15-21 days
B. 22-28 days
C. 29-42 days
D. 43-60 days

9. ... horses returning within ______ days have shown the lowest ROI (-40%).

A. 15-21 days
B. 22-28 days
C. 29-42 days
D. 43-60 days

10. Dale Capuano has the following ROIs to win (+43%, +10%, and -41%) when returning horses at the same class as their last race. Match the finish position in their last race, with their ROI.

A. 1st-3rd
B. 4th-5th
C. 6th+

I'll post the answers later this week, good luck...

[Whitehos]

Que,
You left Scott Lake out.
Whitehos

[Que]

Bonus question for Whitehos.

Scott Lake has a higher win percentage (36.0% vs 27.8%) with horses...

A. First-time off claim
B. Second-time off claim

[Tom]

Que,
Interesting post. Here is a guy sitting down with a PC at home colleccting and using trainer data this specific.
Why is it the DRF with its access to its master database can't come with something of substance like this? The pathetic little tid bits they thorw out in the PP's have been hailed as a great accomplishment...I think they Suck! The DRF is an embaressment to itsef.
My hat's off to you for this type of dediction.I think you would be a better person to run DRF than Steve Christ
who seems quite content to sit on his laurels from the Racing Times days.
I will be interested in the answers.
Tom

[smf]

Que,

I'll fail this as bad as I did Chemistry, but here goes...

Asmussen-TURF--- Don't know (don't care) how his KY and AP runners do so my #'s may be a little different than yours. Plus, I only have his young turfers (3-4 yo's msw, n1x, n2l, 3yo claimers) not the older ones, and no winners in my index of Asmussen's had the hood 'on' or 'off'. Only one had blink's to begin with.

Claims...None of his (2 deep claimed) winners had the b's 'on' or 'off'. He tried putting the hood on a claim only once (broadway show), and finished 7th as the odds on favorite. It was the 2nd try off the claim for broadway show. He only made changes on 2 of his 12 claimed winners here, nothing to do w/ blinks.

Since I'm outta lifelines Regis, I'll guess "no blinkers". That's my final answer.

[smf]

As for Meachum, I don't know. Excellent questions, Que!

Todd doesn't get many 3-4 yo's on grass at LS, LAD, FG(i don't track turf at HOU, and he does ok there) and he's not exactly a claiming ace. His wins off the claim are usually in the 30-40 day range but that's no guaranteed indicator of the rest of his runners.

As for Mr Lake, I don't track NYRA but I'd guess that his 2nd off the claim is better at NYRA than his first off claim, and possibly better on first off claim at PHA, PIM, etc.. The NYRA jail time restrictions would lead me to that guess.

[GR1@HTR]

Sounds like fun Que, Don't know any of the answers here so I'm guessing on "all" of them. Whats that old test saying...Guess B or D before A, C, or E...???!



1. Bob Baffert has shown a flat profit to win (+1%) in which
of the following categories of races?


B. Maiden Claiming races


2. D. Wayne Lukas has the highest ROI to win (0%) with
horses possessing which of the following running styles?

A. Early (E)


3. D. Wayne Lukas has the highest win percentage
(23.4%) with horses possessing which of the following
running styles?

A. Early (E)


4. Nicholas Zito has shown a flat bet profit to win with all
of the following jockeys except:

A. Javier Castellanos


5. Steven Asmussen has the highest ROI to win (+13.8%)
under which of the following circumstances:


D. Removing blinkers


6. Steven Asmussen has the highest win percentage
(21.73%) under which of the following circumstances:


D. Removing blinkers


7. Todd Meachum has shown a flat bet profit to win
(+18.5%) with horses that finished 1st or 2nd in the
previous race and are returning within:

A. 1-7 days


Two part question. Bernard Flint has shown a flat bet profit
with horses showing their last workout 6-7 days ago. From
these horses,

8. ... horses returning within ______ days have shown the
highest ROI (+68%).

A. 15-21 days


9. ... horses returning within ______ days have shown the
lowest ROI (-40%).


D. 43-60 days

10. Dale Capuano has the following ROIs to win (+43%,
+10%, and -41%) when returning horses at the same
class as their last race. Match the finish position in their
last race, with their ROI.


C. 6th+

[hurrikane]

Que..good quiz...my data isn't 3yo though. I run it by the year and sometimes by the quarter to look for short term swings...what I have is

1.Baffert....I have him at GR STK....29-8...+28.67. Since 1-1-01

2. Lukas..his highest roi since Jan is on E style horses. 0.79 I run horses by f,e,p,s,r.

3. Lukas win%. again I have e horses at 16% since Jan..closely followed by S horses at 15%

4. I track jky by rs not trainer. That data is usually pretty availible race day so it's too much work for me to track. So I'm guessing Castellanos

5. going with no blinks..it's a guess. I think that is what the trainer is doing when he puts them on or takes them off too.
6. again a guess...no blinks

7. Meachum...since the first of the year you would be sitting pretty if you had bet all of his horses between 8-14 days off. He did have 2 fts that both won and paid 5.60 and 12.00. But I won't count those.

8 & 9. I don't have info on works but would love to incorporate them. Where are you getting the data?

10. my data on Dale is from the first of the year.
bl1-3 63-15 -20% roi
bl4-5 6-1 -25% roi
bl>5 37-10 +69.46% roi. (you gotta love this one, 25% win rate at a price. don't go beating him
down now)

I believe the lake question is 2nd off claim. someone here bought up the jail situation and would have to join some tables to get that one. Maybe later today

[Larry Hamilton]

Like Que, I have a db and can answer all those questions, didnt want to chance getting a different answer than he did, so I decided to watch hehehehe.

[Rick Ransom]

Awesome, you guys. I didn't realize there were that many of you looking at trainer stats. My IQ is about zero in this area, so I won't even try. I've looked at BRIS stats before, but they didn't seem to be much more useful than DRF in my testing.

Some questions:

What period of time and what number of samples do you consider significant?

Where do you draw the line on win % and ROI?

Which categories are not worth tracking?

[Rick Ransom]

Tom,

Crist moved the DRF corporate headquarters last year from Phoenix to New York City. The cost of doing business there has to be about 3 times what it was here. I guess the sky's the limit on what people will pay for a copy, though. I used to get mine free. Now that's the right price! I haven't seen one for a long time now since I'd have to pay.

Seriously though, you probably should be glad that DRF doesn't provide much useful information because it would only ruin the prices on that style of play. Think of what would happen to pace handicapping if DRF provided accurate pace figures. It's already hurt just to have them available in other sources.

[melman]

Hey Mr Whitey, my favorite S Lake play is 1st after a claim in New York with the horse's next start in a SPRINT RACE. A big number just keep in quiet. LOL By the way Whitey www.simuhelp.com has been smoking at the big harness tracks. Meadowlands Balmoral and Mohawk/Woodbine. Two Sundays ago at the BigM 2nd pick winner followed by another 2nd pick winner followed by a on top winner returned $10,020.00 in the Pic3. Keep that quite also Big Fella. hehehehehehehe

[Whitehos]

Melman I miss you on Friday night. You too Que
I think of you every day Melman.....Do you remember why?
Whitehos

[PaceAdvantage]

I believe old DRF corporate HQs used to be in New Jersey....the Phoenix office was always just a satellite office, wasn't it??

[Rick Ransom]

I think it went from Hightstown, NJ to Los Angeles in the 80's. Then, they decided to move to Phoenix to "break" the print unions. I don't know what year that was, but I can tell you that in 1997 the Corporate headquarters were in Phoenix because my wife worked there. Crist and friends bought the company in 1999 and moved it to NYC in March, 2000.

[Que]

I'll tally up the scores and post the answers tomorrow night after work. However, the standings thus far are:

hurricane... with 4 correct answers
smf... with 2 correct answers
GR1... with 2 correct answers

Still time to use a few lifelines before making your "final" answer(s). Good luck...

Que.

[melman]

Believe it would have something to do with racingchannel.com would it not? Hope to see you and Que in the War Room again on a Friday. Been very busy with my new betting "toy" from Philly Phone.

[Que]

Below are the answers to the quiz.

1. Bob Baffert has shown a flat profit to win (+1%) in which of the following categories of races?

A. Maiden races
B. Maiden Claiming races
C. Allowance races
D. Graded Stakes races

Answer is B. Bob Baffert has an ROI of +1.3% (47/164 28.7%) in Maiden Claiming races.

2. D. Wayne Lukas has the highest ROI to win (0%) with horses possessing which of the following running styles?

A. Early (E)
B. Early Presser (EP)
C. Presser (P)
D. Presser Sustained (PS)
E. Sustained (S)
F. Slow Sustained (SS)

Answer is C. Despite D. Wayne Lukas's poor overall ROI to win (-32.5%), his ROI with Pressers (P) is only -0.4% (30/107 16.0%).

3. D. Wayne Lukas has the highest win percentage (23.4%) with horses possessing which of the following running styles?

A. Early (E)
B. Early Presser (EP)
C. Presser (P)
D. Presser Sustained (PS)
E. Sustained (S)
F. Slow Sustained (SS)

Answer is B. Although D. Wayne Lukas's horses with the Pressing running style have his highest ROI, his highest win percentage is with Early Pressers (47/201 23.4%); however, the ROI on these horses is -23.4%.

4. Nicholas Zito has shown a flat bet profit to win with all of the following jockeys except:

A. Javier Castellanos
B. Aaron Gryder
C. Corey Nakatani
D. Shane Shellers

Answer is B. Nicholas Zito has an ROI to win of 30% or greater with all of the jockeys listed except Aaron Gryder. His ROI to win with Aaron Gryder is -44% (12/107 11.2%).

5. Steven Asmussen has the highest ROI to win (+13.8%) under which of the following circumstances:

A. First-time blinkers
B. Second-time blinkers
C. Blinkers on (not first or second-time)
D. Removing blinkers
E. No blinkers

Answer is B. Steven Asmussen has an ROI to win of +13.8% (10/56 17.9%) when using blinkers for the first-time.

6. Steven Asmussen has the highest win percentage (21.73%) under which of the following circumstances:

A. First-time blinkers
B. Second-time blinkers
C. Blinkers on (not first or second-time)
D. Removing blinkers
E. No blinkers

Answer is E. Although Steven Asmussen has a positive ROI with horses using blinkers for the first or second-time, his highest win percentage (424/1951 21.7%) is with horses not using blinkers; however, the ROI to win on these horses is -7.0%.

7. Todd Meachum has shown a flat bet profit to win (+18.5%) with horses that finished 1st or 2nd in the previous race and are returning within:

A. 1-7 days
B. 8-14 days
C. 15-21 days
D. 22-28 days

Answer is B. Todd Meachum has a +18.5% ROI to win (15/52 28.9%) with horses that finished 1st or 2nd in their previous race and are returning within 8-14 days.

Two part question. Bernard Flint has shown a flat bet profit with horses showing their last workout 6-7 days ago. From these horses,

8. ... horses returning within ______ days have shown the highest ROI (+68%).

A. 15-21 days
B. 22-28 days
C. 29-42 days
D. 43-60 days

Answer is C. Bernard Flint has a +68% ROI to win (12/49 26.7%) with horses showing their last workout 6-7 days ago and having last raced 29-42 days ago.

9. ... horses returning within ______ days have shown the lowest ROI (-40%).

A. 15-21 days
B. 22-28 days
C. 29-42 days
D. 43-60 days

Answer is A. Bernard Flint has a -40% ROI to win (10/47 21.3%) with horses showing their last workout 6-7 days ago and having last raced 15-21 days ago.

10. Dale Capuano has the following ROIs to win (+43%, +10%, and -41%) when returning horses at the same class as their last race. Match the finish position in their last race, with their ROI.

A. 1st-3rd
B. 4th-5th
C. 6th+

The correct order is C-B-A. Dale Capuano horse's returning at the same class level have an ROI of +43% (16/97 16.5%) if they finished greater than or equal to 6th in their last race, +10% (26/127 20.4%) if they finished 4th-5th in their last race, and -10% (72/339 21.2%) if they finished 1st-3rd in their last race.

Bonus question. Scott Lake has a higher win percentage (36.0% vs 27.8%) with horses...

A. First-time off claim
B. Second-time off claim

Answer is B. Scott Lake has a +16.5% ROI to win (75/208 36.0%) second-time off a claim.

Que.

[Tom]

Nice work, Que-you are really on top of this stuff.
I think I will stay out the pools you are betting into.
By the way, what color are my socks?
Tom