Dick Schmidt's Post-Re: Karl

[JustMissed]

Just some food for thought. If you hit half the races, you need only average a 2-1 mutuel to get a 50% return. Betcha the average payoff at CRC is over $6.00. The hard part is hitting half, which is why Karl is a pro. He can do the hard part.

Dick

I enjoyed reading the tread "DRF on Odds Plunging". I was intrigued with Dick's post above and since I play Caler every now and then so I came up with this little test as follows:

Bet $100 to win on each of 10 races with 50% win rate-Result is to cash tickets totaling $1,500 with ticket cost of $1,000 = net walk out money $500. I would take this any day of the week. I actually took the results of the first ten of Saturdays races and at random selected races as hits. Thes resulted in a little less than $300 walk out profit which is still pretty good.

The problem I have is that if a guy could hit 50% winners-there would have to be days where is only won 4 races so the next day he would have to win 6 races to even back up. Way too much pressure for most people. BUT- I got to thinking if a guy was pretty good but not quite as good as Karl-he would need to get better or figure out a way to cover his lost tickets. I have read about some methods where you increase your next bet amout to cover the loss on the previous race, i.e bet $125, at 3-1 on race 2 to cover $100 ticket loss from race 1. I have read where this is not good idea because excessive losses will cause you to tap out or cause the bet size to grow too large. This may be true but it ain't going to happen to good players like Karl or Dick. The only problem I see with this is that you still need to win 50% of all races to maintain a certain profit level, even if you are able to recover you lost bets.

Anyway-if you have any thoughts about this please post.

JustMissed
;)

[cj]

It does not work! No matter how you slice it, all good handicappers will have losing streaks, and this is not the time to be increasing bet size.

CJ

[GR1@HTR]

No way anyone could hit 50% playing every race. Even at Calder...It is just not possible....Now like I said, if you skip most races then ya gotta chance...

And you all realize that a 1-1 (even money horse) only wins like 44% of the time...No B.S.

[JimG]

Originally posted by JustMissed
.

Anyway-if you have any thoughts about this please post.


;)


My only thought is this subject has been beaten in the ground.


Jim

[JustMissed]

Sorry JimG-I thought this was an open forum but I guess you veteran players don't have time to read a post from a newbie. I'll just listen from now on and you want see another post from me.

JustMissed
:rolleyes:

[Dave Schwartz]

JM,

Which thread is Dick's response to be found in?

I cannot locate it.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[JustMissed]

The Dick Schmidt post I was referring to was at General Racing-DRF on Odds Plunging, page 7, posted at 4:20 AM. It was about 7 from the bottom of page 7. Hope this helps.

JustMissed
:)

[Dave Schwartz]

JM,

Thanks. I found it.


Dave

[Dick Schmidt]

Just Missed,

Don't let them push you around. On the other hand, the "I'll never darken your door again, poor me" response is almost as annoying. Just ignore those who are ill mannered and post what you will.

Some thoughts on this very well discussed subject.

Karl never said he plays every race. In fact, he says that when he does real well early in the day, he comes home. I'm sure that even when he stays to the last race, he occasionally passes a race.

He is under no pressure to maintain a 50% win percentage. If he only hits 4 one day, there is no mad scramble to hit 6 the next. He judges his success by how much he earns, not how many he hits. 50% would be a rough average over time.

The Due Column, which is the method of betting you describe, is generally thought to be a bad idea. If you drive a consistently high win %, the arguments about going broke aren't as relevant, but I still don't like it. I do know one person who uses a modified due column without handicapping and makes a comfortable living. I see a method that limits your winnings while allowing large losses. There are better ways to bet.

You will find the opinion expressed here over and over that to win you must be selective in the races you play. I am one of the few who disagree. No, I don't play every race I handicap, but I do bet about 90% of them. When I really get cranked up, there are times I don't notice what track I'm playing, to say nothing of the class, distance or surface of the race. Frequently I have to go back to my handicapping program from e-horse to check on the track and race to make my bets. I'm not saying that this is the best way to play, or that anyone should copy my style, I'm asserting that it works for me, and thus can be done.

I don't think I have ever met Karl, nor have I ever tracked his bets or met anyone who went racing with him. My point in all this has always been that to call someone a stone liar, even if you use statistics and polite language, is rude and uncalled for. Especially when those calling the names have no more information on the subject than I do. That I find Karl's reports creditable and others don't isn't the point. You can always disregard what you don't accept. Don't call a man a liar simply because he can do something that you can't.

Dick

[JimG]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
Just Missed,

Just ignore those who are ill mannered and post what you will.

My point in all this has always been that to call someone a stone liar, even if you use statistics and polite language, is rude and uncalled for. Especially when those calling the names have no more information on the subject than I do. That I find Karl's reports creditable and others don't isn't the point. You can always disregard what you don't accept. Don't call a man a liar simply because he can do something that you can't.

Dick

Dick,

Speaking of rude posts...I think bill is looking for you from the looks of his response to your assessment of his typing skills on another thread<g>.

With respect to your comments quoted above regarding Karl. I agree 100%. Calling him a liar was way out of line, no matter how it was couched in statistics.

Jim

[GR1@HTR]

Well, looks like another lock will be put on this thread, which might be best...But before that happens I gotta post...So here we go:

No one called him a liar. Dick was the first to mention the 4 letter word. Just some of us asked for proof behind what was stated. To state something strongly several times and then to ask for some foundation behind the verbage is reasonable, isn't it?



:confused::rolleyes: :confused: :rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

No lock required, since this thread is at least staying on-topic to the thread title....

You have to understand, I don't knee-jerk too often around here. If anything, people accuse me of reacting too slowly to situations and how they should be dealt with.....

==PA

[GR1@HTR]

That's cool. Lock is ok w/ me. We have only had a few threads locked up and I think I've only contributed to one of those...Was trying for the daily double but doesn't look like today is my day...

[Bob Harris]

JM,

As stated by others, a straight "due column" style of betting isn't a good idea but you might want to check with Dave Schwartz about his "Horse Market Investing" method.

I messed around with it a few years ago and thought it was pretty clever...the bad news for me was that it really doesn't perform all that well for conventional value players like myself...my win percentage is too low and the wins come in a "choppy" manner. For a selection oriented player with a win % in the high 20%+ range, I would highly suggest taking a look at it.

Bob

[JustMissed]

Thanks Bob,

That is very usefull information. I had suspected that there was some sort of "due method' that might work with certain betting styles. I am a relatively new player and usually play 1/3 WP bets. I usually go to Tampa Bay Downs four nights and on Saturday. I know that any night I come home even I consider a good night and am just looking for a cheap way to at least finish flat while I progress with my handicapping.

I have read a lot of Jerry Stokes' old lessons and he always plays a WP on his key horse in case his exacta or tri misses in order to cover the total bet cost. He pretty much plays long odds/value plays that have large payoffs. I have read quite a few old post on this site and have not seen too much said about cover bets which is the reason I posted.

Thanks again,


JustMissed

:)

[Rick]

http://people.deas.harvard.edu/users/students/Rebecca_Hwa/lyrics/berlin.html

[hdcper]

Rick,

Great post!!! Enjoyed every word. Now if you are ever in the carousel section of Turf Paradise and start singing that I will respond.

Hdcper

P.S. Also glad to see Tanya brought this topic up again too and I enjoyed your lengthy post(have read it 3 times). Nice work!

[Jeff P]

Before I started betting horses, I used to have a very different primary hobby- trout fishing. At one time in my life the quest for catching fish was my life. I literally spent almost every waking moment visualizing a better way of catching fish. I seldom fish anymore- mainly because it no longer really challenges me. I came really close, as much any human being can, to truly understanding what it takes to catch trout at will.

Can I use what I learned about fishing and apply it to handicapping? Just maybe.

For anyone interested, I have put my thoughts on the subject up on one of my own sites. Here's a link:

http://www.gifts-shopping-n-more.com/puzzle_truth.html

[Dick Schmidt]

Jeff,

Wonderful post. Used to try to catch a lot of trout before my son was born. Wish I had run into you on the stream. Of course back then I'd have probably asked you what program (I mean fly) you were using, just like all the others who couldn't see.

As for your quest after knowledge of body language, I know it can be done. I've met two such "Handicapping Gods". One was my grandfather, who was born in 1890 in the Colorado Territory, rode a horse to school and didn't see a car until he was 14. A real live honest-to-goodness cowboy. In those days, when you went to the races, you looked at the horses and bet the one you liked. Grandpa made a lot of money. He could even pick horses on TV. He picked 10 straight Kentucky Derbies without ever seeing a Form or knowing anything about the runners and never using more than 3 or 4 horses. He just knew what a fit horse looked like.

The other guy was an commercial airline pilot who always seemed to have a lot of days off. He was raised around horses, but taught himself most of what he knew. He'd play 5 or 6 races a day and hit about 80%. Said he just knew when a horse was happy. He tried to teach me, but I was hopeless. The only horses I could pick were all 6-5 on the Morning Line and bet down from there. Even I could see they gleamed!

He did tell me one thing that might be of some use to you, or anyone trying to learn body language. He said the Joe Tackish (spelling?) video on body language was very good, and would have saved him a lot of time. It is apparently very basic, but it is a way to hit the ground running.

Good luck on your quest.

Dick

[justin]

Dick,

I can't remember the name of the guy who did the video, but I agree it's definitely worth watching. Even if you don't have a very sharp eye, just looking for the basics will eliminate MANY horses from serious consideration. When you see a horse who doesn't look fit and ready, it's pretty rare to see them win in my experience. I find this is especially important in cheap claiming races. Too bad it requires me to be at the track :(

-Justin

[Triple Trio]

In Australia, a certain animal behaviourist Dr Geoff Hutson has done a scientific study to see if the body language of a horse can be used for handicapping races.

http://www.unimelb.edu.au/ExtRels/Media/UN/archive/1996/143/lookofaloserleadstothewinn.html

To the best of my knowledge, Dr Hutson hasn't found any sign that can used to pick winners. However, he has found signs that can be used to eliminate losers and that this has been useful enough for him to be a winning player.

[GameTheory]

Joe Takach

You can get the basics just reading his articles -- he seems to have them posted on at least a dozen handicapping sites. Just do a Google search.

For a short while I was in charge of posting Joe's So Cal Horses to Watch on the internet for his subscribers. At the time I was going to Santa Anita and playing the simulcast, but I decided to take Joe's notes down to Hollywood Park where the horses actually were at and try out the physical handicapping stuff.

First of all, I can tell you that anyone keeping track of how horses pull up after each race, and not betting those that didn't take a proper gallop around the track last out (a suprisingly large number -- at least several in every race) can improve their win% quite a bit just by knowing that.

Now I certainly wouldn't be able to pick winners just by physical methods alone, but taking my normal numbers and then watching the horses in the paddock & post parade using Joe's basic guidelines got me an extra 2 or 3 winners everyday I tried it. By that I mean I was able to eliminate my first choice, and move on to another horse. That is basically how I used it -- just to eliminate horses. If a horse looked great physically but had never shown on paper that he was competitive with the others in the race I wouldn't bet him.

I was never able to tell a prancing, happy horse from a prancing, angry horse, but just concentrating on the ears & tail I was able to tell a lot. And of course you can easily check for bar shoes, front wraps, etc.

Paddock handicapping is also a great way to get in shape. From paddock to the post parade, watching the warm-up, running to window at the last minute 9 times a day...


BTW, Jeff, your "trout" article was excellent, and is along the lines of what I've been thinking lately. I don't think anyone (publicly) was really gotten to the "heart" of this game. I think all the "conventional tackle" we are using is woefully incomplete. The answer is not just in physical stuff, though. Lately I've been tinkering with some very esoteric numerical methods that (so far) are doing better than anything I've ever seen. I think there are still watershed discoveries to be made in handicapping...

[Dave Schwartz]

Jeff,

I must concur with my collegues... Great article.

Thanks.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[cj]

Originally posted by GameTheory
Joe Takach

You can get the basics just reading his articles -- he seems to have them posted on at least a dozen handicapping sites. Just do a Google search.



The video is really pretty good, the basics are good in print, but actually seeing what he is talking about really helps. Not the most dynamic delivery of material, but it gets the job done.

CJ

[Rick]

I mentioned this elsewhere but it seems relevant so I'll repeat it here. The book "Trackfacts" by Dan DiPleco contains a chapter on body language and provides impact values for various factors according to his interpretation. Probably available at Gambler's Book Store if you're interested. I think this could be a major factor IF you're good at it. I'm not, but then I haven't tried very hard either and I may very well incorporate some of it in the future. I don't think you should expect to get 80% winners, but I'm sure it would be important for those seeking the highest possible percentage.

[Tom]

http://www.icapper.com/

This will get you to a whole slew o' articles by Joe T.

As far as body language goes, this in one area I just can't grasp.
I have studied the videos,read the books, watched the parades, and more of my "sharp horses run last than first.
A sure bet is to unload on a horse I thinks looks lame or so. Itis beyond me.

[cj]

Body language doesn't do me much good anymore since most of my betting is done from my bedroom in my pajamas!

Tom,

I feel your pain, I could never make much out of it, but I know some who can and I always value their opinion. Guess like most things, its more art than science.

CJ