Wanted:SA $2M Pk6 cyber ticket input for 2/8

[Light]

Recently been playing the SA Pk6 during a large carryover. There is one for this Wed.Will be at least $2M. I usually go in with a friend on a $32 or $48 ticket. We allways debate as to who to include and where to single. We're allways close but no cigar. I thought I would open up the debate as to who to include(or not to include) to this forum. Any feedback would be appreciated and of course you can construct your own ticket from this info.

What I'm looking for is the reason you like a horse,not just number posting.Dont worry if your right or wrong.We're just talking here. Don't take the whole card. Only the ones you feel strongly about. Hopefully everyone will pick different races and we'll cover the card.Starting it this Monday morning gives us a good head start in handicapping. I find it too short for the handicapping process to do it the day before.

[PaceAdvantage]

Good idea...I'm game for a race or two.....

[bettheoverlay]

The 7th, a 75k non-graded stakes, came up really tough with most having been competetive in graded races, some having won. The likely favorite, Toasted, finished 3rd in a G2 last out, but has only 2 races since Sept 04, and is a closer cutting back in distance from 1 1/8 to a mile.

Jungle Prince interests me the most, with huge pace figures from the 5 1/2 furlong graded stakes, and has a real nice G3 6 1/2 furlong grass race 3 back with Martinez aboard, one of my favorite price jockeys.

Uncle Denny also shows front running speed, and if he softens up Jungle Prince, I'll opt for Tedo as the closer. A 4yo with some upside, he closed gamely to win a similiar race at the distance in Dec, though I suspect the competition may have been easier. He does have a 2nd in a G2, and may get the jump on the deep closers.

[bettheoverlay]

In the 8th, I like two of the MSWs to Claimers, Surefire Success and Brainstorm. I prefer Brainstorm with a recent race and the 3rd off a layoff angle. Surefire Success gets some weight off with the move to the bug boy, and should gun for wire to wire.

The rest of the races look like puzzlers to me at first glance. Wouldn't be surprised to see another carryover.

[toetoe]

Toasted is a must-use for me. Laura just keeps sending him over, and he keeps running big races. I don't think he'll be the favorite, will he? Uncle Denny, Terroplane and Senor Swinger are hard to toss, whereas Tedo looked logical last time versus 3-y-o's, but he's a stretch here. In any case, don't chase it with faves and/or 2nd-faves in six legs. I wouldn't consider a ticket under $80, and that's with two or three non-favored locks! Look at it this way: take the $200 we "spend" on the RUMAITC pick-four, which is hard to hit, agreed? Now double it for the $2 bet, find two LOCKS, and we're there. How many of us can commit to $400 (or more), and also refrain from playing when it doesn't come together? The last two look like they could easily require going 4x4, and if you go 2x2x2x2 in the other four, you're looking at $512. That's okay, but are you confident you can at least console yourself with 2 fives, or 4 fives? And if you single one race, are you prepared to see your single win at a nice price without the $256 you might otherwise have on him, while you get fewer than five, in other words, a pocketful of lint?
Well, Bucky, if the answer is YES, then let's DO this! :jump:

[Light]

Toe.

I don't think I want to do a fiasco type ticket like those "experts" did with the breeders cup Pk6. Ninety grand in tickets and out first leg.If you are hot you may hit it on an $8 ticket like the guy who won the BC pk6 2 years ago.The "KISS" strategy can beat the "Whale" strategy if you're sharp that day. If you're not, even the Whales wont sing.

[toetoe]

Hey, Light, what happened to your light in the "Closer Look" column? Did somebody spike your coffee? :D

As to tickets, ALL my pick-six tickets are fiasco tickets. Your point is good, and $8 may indeed be the amount to risk. The problem is that $48 or $96 seem like nothing to some of us players, but those amounts don't always buy enough bang.

[toetoe]

Bet,

Surefire Success looks so good, it's slightly terrifying. It seems Sahadi has given up on him after three months off. Brainstorm and Mike's Straightman may be the ones, IF no first-timer fires. So just the last two look like 4x3, at least. :confused:

[toetoe]

Wow, it gets worse for Surefire Success. Vet scratch January 25, from a MSW race. Neither a single nor a throwout. Well, MAYBE a throwout. :eek:

[bettheoverlay]

Toasted came up 6/1 in the M/L and Terroplane 5/2. Speed figs from last 2 races (Bris) have Toasted 102/98 (graded races), and Terroplane 94/94 (allowances). Toasted's Late Pace of 112 is huge relative to the field, and the #1 Prime Power advantage of 9.7. Such a confluence of figures usually project to 8/5. I still have questions of distance, the year off, and why run him for 75k when he finishes in the money in G2s. I'm putting him on my ticket though and would definitely bet him to win at 6/1.

With Uncle Denny out, I like Jungle Prince even more, I love great form sprinters stretching out to a mile. Martinez just missed with him at 17/1 the only time he has ridden him,in a G3. I'm sticking with Temo as well.

I'm going to single Brainstorm in the finale, and West's first time claimer, Tiz Only Money in the sixth. I'm still clueless on the others. P6 looks tough but the P4 is looking like a prime oppurtunity.

[Light]

8th race:

Surefire Success needs a lone lead.Two firsters look live in here with some fast works.#2 and #5. They could offer a challenge as well as the Cantebury Shipper on the outside.Wouldn't be surprised if one of the debutants scores an upset.

Hopefully dirt speed bias is not so prevalent which has led to this carryover.Kinda leaning to the best closer is the race(ML fav.)Gomez/Mullins horse.Those guys are winning at an insane 41% in last 17 tries. 2 back was for 6-1/2 when steadied at the start to finish second. 13 lengths in front of the 3rd place horse.

[toetoe]

Bet,

Be advised the West horse was a vet's scratch last month. Two works since, and decent m.l. odds, but I want to fully disclose. Surefire Success is also a recent vet's scratch.

Light,

Wouldn't it be better to have a speed bias, and capitalize on it? :confused:

[ceejay]

I don't think that the 4/5 ml #6 in the 4th is a single. In fact I may try to beat him. The 1 and 2 might be live:
1 has a pattern that the trainer does well at long odds with 2/10 with 3 and out from 5-1 to 20-1 for a horrible barn.
2 took a big step foward last out-- first turf. Barn is 4/14 with Cohen off an ITM finish on the turf today, but amout half those starts and 3 wins were with one horse.

The 4 had some back turf form good enuf to win this too but the new barn and class jump will likely keep me away.

[shanta]

Light,

the big fav # 6 Sigfreto ( 4/5 ml) is gonna be extremely tough as those last 2 races of his both at today's distance are probably too tough for this bunch.

He is 8 years old however and this will be third race in 32 days so maybe a little bit is taken outa him. There is a horse in here who to me makes the race interesting.

That is the lightly raced # 2 Missed Summer ( 12/1 ml) 5 yr old with only 6 lifetime starts obviously has had some issues. His last race 27 days ago was his first try on turf and for me was VERY impressive for a couple of reasons. First being in a 10 horse field this guy took REAL money going postward at 9/2.

Second reason is I happened to watch the race and while I am NO expert race watcher I remember seeing him surge with tremendous power the last few yards almost like he realized the race was ending and he had to win.

I know "jack" about breeding and the like but this guy to me is a player here. Properly rested coming back in 27 days.

race 4 -- # 6 and # 2

good luck Light!
Richie :)

[ceejay]

The third looks quite difficult. By my count 6 E horses, 2 EP and a P. Early pace may be the 2, 8 or 9. Leaning to the 8, who also has best last out BSF.

[ceejay]

Race 7
8 is my single. I like the last out, that Hess is 5/14 off a win when jumping in tag. Might play the 10 as a backup. Throw out the last start and change jocks to Garcia and he may outrun his odds.

[toetoe]

Race 6, I agree with Shanta about win machine Sigfreto, and about Missed Summer. However, the Laura De Seroux horse, Casual Thunder, makes it a 3-horse race at most. Laura may win both turf heats, and you could do worse than singling both of hers.

[Light]

3rd

Leaning to the 8, who also has best last out BSF.

I really like #7: Strip in Wager.Stretches out 1st time but this horse has alot going for her. Easily beat a 13 horse Mdn40k field. Comes back with good works.Trainer is 15% with first time routes. Is the best closer in the race with a fair amount of speed.

2nd pick is the #9.Gets her winning jock back.Got bumped at the start in last. Beaten favorite in last. And this is her 2nd route race so I excuse her last and think she will be sitting in a great stalking position right behind the speed.TJ combo is 2 wins from 3 starts.

[Light]

Race 6, I agree with Shanta about win machine Sigfreto, and about Missed Summer. However, the Laura De Seroux horse, Casual Thunder, makes it a 3-horse race at most. Laura may win both turf heats, and you could do worse than singling both of hers.

This is actually race #4 on Turf. I like those 3 horses and agree with Ceejay that the 4/5 Gomez horse looks vulnerable. The ony other horse that concerns me is the #8 @7/2. Last race could have been a setup for this. Court rode him last time for the first time on dirt and this TJ combo is 4/9 on Turf. Has the fastest works in the field since raced.

[Light]

Race 7
8 is my single.


That is actually race #6. The funny thing about the 8 is that Desormeaux is this horse's regular rider and is Hess's #1 jock. Desormeaux goes to the #11 who looks live. But Pval and the horse are no slouches. This is a very hard race.Alot of hard knockers. Best closers are the #5 and #1.

[Light]

The 7th, a 75k non-graded stakes, came up really tough...

It's impossible

[PaceAdvantage]

Race 3: Strip In Wager, the only one with any sort of decent stamina...however, will Santa Anita be kind enough to her? Doubtful, especially going only 8 furlongs. However, you have to use her just because of her late dominance. I would also use Dancing Baci here off the layoff. Workouts are progressively better, and against these, she should be dangerous on the stretch out. Definitely look for a price in this race.

Race 6: Send Me A Copy is dangerous at a price, in another race that might produce a double digit winner. Fits track profile well, and trainer/jockey combo clicks often...

[Light]

I talked with my pk6 partner last night and he had some good observations about some of my picks I've posted. We also got a 3rd (silent partner) to invest in our ticket.My friends points were:

3rd: He agrees that #7 is a must use but that his style is wrong for sprinters stretching.

he did not pay much attention to the #9 but now likes her noting that she is the only 2 time winner in the field.

4th: Pointed out that #8(7/2 ML) is 0-7 on Turf

6th: Notes that the #11 was well beaten by the #4

7th: We agree Toasted is another of those horses we must include. He also likes Senor Swinger and Terroplane.

8th:Notes the #2 FTS was purchased for 90k and is in for 50k

That the #4 was beaten by a couple in here previously

[toetoe]

ceejay and I know which races are which. We were testing you. :D

[toetoe]

Light,

Didja single Ask Kathy, huh didja? The single I gave you, at no charge? :D

[Ron]

Race 4: Oh, man.

[cj]

How many P6 players want to see Garrett Gomez strung up after the 4th?

[Tee]

I missed the bleepin race - what happened?

[JustRalph]

I couldn't believe he laid on the rail all the way down the stretch........he could have pulled out on those fractions..........had he committed earlier..........what a mess

[toetoe]

ceejay,

Right about #4 having some talent. As Tony Calo would say, " Hope ya HAD 'im."

[cj]

I missed the bleepin race - what happened?

It looked like a half mile harness race the way Gomez was blocked in. Horrible ride. When you are 3-5, I think you are supposed to ride like you don't have to save every inch of ground and time your move perfectly. But hey, I'm no jock, and I don't play 3-5s or Pick 6s, so not a biggie to me. I can imagine the cursing going on though.

In reality, if this was your single, you might need to rethink how you play the Pick 6. I don't play them yet, so maybe I'm wrong, just trying to learn.

[Ron]

I hope that we can do this again tomorrow. :D

[Ron]

Race 5: Nice super! :)

[toetoe]

Felipe wins his share of MCL's, doesn't he? Hey, a tiny swerve in the stretch. What if he came down and the bomber that nosed into second went up? This is the stuff of pick-six lore, even though it didn't happen. :confused:

[toetoe]

Okay, after running 2nd and 3rd in the 6th, I'm 1-for-4. :blush: :D Anybody alive?

[Ron]

Wow, this will be a huge payout...or hopefully, carryover.

[toetoe]

Geez, 4 and 8 would be my least preferred of contenders, maybe 4th and 5th. Surprised nobody jumped up woth a lifetime best to upset. :( :confused:

[ceejay]

4 of 6 for me.

[Light]

Light,

Didja single Ask Kathy, huh didja? The single I gave you, at no charge? :D

Sorry to dissapoint you Toeman but we did. Had her on 2 of the 3 tickets. If we combined all tickets we would have had 5 of 6.

The biggest dissapointment was that I had a speed play ticket in case the track was playing to speed. It consisted of the top 2 pace horses in each race. That ticket had 5 of 6 on its own,including the 4th race bomb and some hefty pk3's. It didn't have Senor Swinger who we singled on another ticket. Of course we didn't want one of our tickets to cost $128,so we culled a couple of winners from that ticket. I also culled the turf bomb from a pk3 that paid 3k :bang: in favor of 3/5 Gomez nightmare.

Two weeks ago,we played SA's carryover and it seemed to be playing to closers. So I had a closers play ticket. That ticket also consisted of the top 2 closers in each race. That ticket hit for about 80k but of course we didn't want to put $128 into it,so we culled and ended up with 4 of 6.

Lessons learned in both pk6's.Pace play kicks ass. I just haven't learned to take advantage of it...yet.

[toetoe]

Split tickets? Yeah, baby. :ThmbUp: :)

[Buddha]

I ended up with 5/6 but not on the same tickets. Only race I didnt have was the bomber in the 4th. Was hoping for another carryover, but couldnt get it done. Did have Senor Swinger for a nice little win ticket at 7/1 to make for an ok day