Weight

[cj]

I rarely even consider weight in my handicapping, but it had to be a factor in Xtra Heat getting beat today. How is it that Gold Mover, who ran her to within a neck last time, picked up exactly 0 pounds? Have to give Heat credit, as most trainers wouldn't even run there older males carrying a 127 lb package.

CJ

[Observer]

Technically, in assigning weights, the Racing Secretary is supposed to be trying to get the horses to the wire at the same time.

So, in this round, Gold Mover got the best of Xtra Heat. I wouldn't blame the weight. She's carried that kind of weight plenty of times before without problems. Typically in the past, she simply outsprinted her rivals right from the break. Today that didn't happen, as she was challenged from the inside by the horse that ended up finishing last (what a surprise!). Bailey had Gold Mover in perfect position, and when Xtra Heat got leg weary in the final sixteenth, they were able to take advantage .. like Gold Mover almost did when they last met, where she didn't get a whole lot of respect going in.

I have a ton of respect for Xtra Heat .. I love watching her run, but she can't win them all, and today, even in defeat, was certainly no disgrace. Would an extra pound or two really have stopped Gold Mover from wearing down Xtra Heat? I don't think so.

Xtra Heat has accomplished so much over the past few seasons. Her connections should be applauded for their management of her career, the wonderful things she's done, and for not crying about weights like so many other trainers do in this game.

[BIG_PHIL]

Very good post observer....Xtra Heat is quite a horse, with the heart of a lion...

[Observer]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
How is it that Gold Mover, who ran her to within a neck last time, picked up exactly 0 pounds?

Went back and looked at the weights for the Vagrancy, which is where Xtra Heat and Gold Mover last met .. and those weights were identical to the weights they carried in Saturday's Princess Rooney. Then I got to thinking ... you ask how it is that Gold Mover picked up 0 weight from the Vagrancy .. but how would you justify adding weight to the loser, Gold Mover, while adding 0 weight to the winner, Xtra Heat?

[rrbauer]

Observer wrote:
I have a ton of respect for Xtra Heat .. I love watching her run, but she can't win them all, and today, even in defeat, was certainly no disgrace. Would an extra pound or two really have stopped Gold Mover from wearing down Xtra Heat? I don't think so.

Comment:
Now that we have Mover losing by a neck and winning by a neck, while getting a 12 lb spot both times, she gets 127 next time. [p] Right?[p]
Of course not! It's easy for a racing secretary to give a horse like Xtra Heat 127, because that's what she's been carrying (when she's not carrying 128). But where the whole weight/handicap thing falls apart is when they should be making upward adjustments in the weights to reflect current condition and ability and they only add a couple pounds because they know if they add more the connections will be screaming and threatening to go elsewhere. With the handicap division in poor shape as it is, the racing secretaries take the safe route.

They ran 6f in like 1:10.1 at Calder and that's a stakes record! If the connections of Xtra Heat are smart they will stick to tracks where her speed is a definite asset and that's not in the Florida sand box.

[BillW]

I agree with Observer ... if the purpose of the handicap system is to equalize the horses abilities, then mission accomplished, the weights are accurately assigned. They look pretty equal to me. I don't think the handicap system was meant to punish success.

Bill

[Observer]

Originally posted by rrbauer
Now that we have Mover losing by a neck and winning by a neck, while getting a 12 lb spot both times, she gets 127 next time. [p] Right?[p] Of course not!

You're right. If the next time Xtra Heat and Gold Mover race and happen to meet once again, Gold Mover would not be bumped up to 127. As already pointed out, the key is to try to level the abilities by the use of the weights. With that in mind, logically, now that Gold Mover has defeated Xtra Heat, a Racing Secretary could fairly assign more weight to Gold Mover, and/or take away some weight from Xtra Heat. You have to remember, it took another 12 pound spread to work for Gold Mover, and it barely did.

Raising Gold Mover to 127 in a race with Xtra Heat would not happen simply because it would not be fair.

[cj]

Races for $500k should be at equal weights...JMHO.

CJ

[rrbauer]

It looked to me like Bailey had Heat measured at the 1/8 pole. From there to the wire Heat was catching all the licks and Mover was only getting some neck scrubs, save for one left-hander from JB.

Bottom line is that Mover could have won by a bigger margin; but any racing secretary looking at the PP's thinks the 12lb spread brings them together. Any racing secretary who saw the actual run to the wire knows better. And, as Observer pointed out, a pound, or two, more on Mover wasn't going to make any difference....not at 6 furlongs.

[cato]

I agree with CJ. The handicapping system of weights is silly for the bigger races. Lets give them equal weights and find out who is the best horse. Its like letting the Yankees play with only 8 players or having Tiger give the field a few strokes each 9 (He would still win)....

Cato