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PaceAdvantage
02-05-2006, 12:48 AM
I've been tinkering with handicapping pro bball and hockey for a few weeks now. I am not a huge fan of either sport, by any stretch of the imagination, so I am not bringing any sort of personal expertise to the table when it comes to the handicapping process (which might be a good thing....no baggage....no false influences....)

What I have been doing is using a couple of computer programs (3rd party...I did not write them) and using the results to make simulated wagers based on lines I find online (because, as we all know, making actual bets would be illegal except for Las Vegas, and I ain't in Las Vegas....)

Anyhoo, after a few weeks of doing this, I have to ask.....is it this easy? I mean seriously, today I handicapped 11 bball games and concluded that 8 were bettable....I have won 6 with one still pending (I picked Golden State -150) and that one looks like it's in the bag as well (GS is up by 36 with 6 minutes to go...lol)

I also handicapped 5 hockey games today, concluded that 4 were bettable, won 2 (Montreal -120 plus the under, St. Louis +250 AND +1.5), lost one (darn Penguins lost in a shootout +135), and am currently winning the final one (Anaheim +1.5(-190) and the UNDER6(-105)) Anaheim is winning 1-0 midway through the final period....

I know, I'm redboarding like a bat out of hell here....I promise to post them beforehand in the future when I get the chance.....

But compared to horse racing, this so far has been a walk in the park. Is it beginners luck? On the surface, it would appear that sports betting SHOULD be a lot easier than betting on horses. You have two teams, and you pick one....simple, right? But if it were that easy, everyone would be doing it....

Anyway, I'll post all of my stuff tomorrow, since I will have the time. I fully expect to lose every game, since as we all know, when you post something publicly, you are jinxed to high heaven.....lol

kingfin66
02-05-2006, 03:18 AM
But easy is a relative term when it comes to gambling. There are only a few types of gambling where a player can actually win money long-term: Horse betting, poker, and sports betting. These all have the same thing going for them - you are not playing against the house. The house takes their cut for sure in the takeout, rake and vig respectively, but there is no built-in advantage to the games.

I would't say that betting and winning on sports is easy, but it can be less complicated than horse racing to be certain. Having insight is very important and there are some powerful angles. I believe that there is much more value in betting underdogs than favorites (most would concur I think).

It's great that you're getting all this practice in. This way, when you eventually venture to Lost Wages...er, I mean Las Vegas, you will know what you're doing.

BTW, what is the name of the software you're using?

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2006, 04:08 AM
Is that really true that you are not playing against the house in sports betting?

Are the stories I hear of books asking certain folks to take their action elsewhere all myths? If they aren't myths, then certain people must be hurting the house, and are therefore in competition with the house, right?

Of course, I suppose the house could dump your bets off on another book...as I said, I'm brand new at all this, and don't know my arse from my elbow. All I basically know is how to construct a bet, and look for value (at least as I perceive it).

The software I use isn't betting software, but sports simulation software. It's basically a game (no, it's none of the EA Sports titles....lol)

I had always felt that some of these programs are very accurate in producing statistics and results that match real life, so what better software to use to predict tonight's games? I'm sure lots of other folks have tried similar tactics to wager on sports, which led me to make this post in the first place. If I have thought of this, tons of other folks have also thought of this.

Like I said, probably beginners luck.....

If I reveal the actual name of the programs I am using, will I be hurting myself by giving away my edge? :lol: :lol:

BetHorses!
02-05-2006, 10:27 AM
PA


I would advise you to stay away from the NBA or just try to play what I call "calendar games" which means playing against a team with x amount of games in x amount of nights etc. I have never really had constant success with the NBA besides you can't watch it. The swings in those 48 minutes will drive you crazy...if you have to watch tune in with 2 minutes left in the game. College Hoop is a different story. Many edges there.


Hockey is another tough sport but you can beat them on the money line never on the puck line i.e. 1-1 1/2.

Now baseball is where you should focus on. ;)

rrbauer
02-05-2006, 11:11 AM
Is that really true that you are not playing against the house in sports betting?

Are the stories I hear of books asking certain folks to take their action elsewhere all myths? If they aren't myths, then certain people must be hurting the house, and are therefore in competition with the house, right?

Of course, I suppose the house could dump your bets off on another book...as I said, I'm brand new at all this, and don't know my arse from my elbow. All I basically know is how to construct a bet, and look for value (at least as I perceive it).



Lot's of houses these days in the sports betting world. If a house won't take your action that makes them suspect in my book (unless you're trying to get down a bunch of dimes two minutes before tipoff). These guys all have computers and access to what's happening vis-a-vis posted lines around the country as well as knowing what their exposure is on any game/spread situation that they're holding. Worst case for the player should be a "circled" game that limits your action but doesn't deny it completely.

freeneasy
02-05-2006, 03:49 PM
you mentioned that you were "redboarding like a bat out of hell" and in my opinion you can just leave that statement to rest.
guys like you and cj, suff, tom, rr, boxcar, mr. mania, kwood, lad, sal, hurricane, if they say they got a winner then i say they got a winner, if they say they had 20 winners then i say they had 20 winners, if they say they had back to back $80 winners then i say they had back to back $80 winners.
here lemme give you a classic example,
you've seen all the losing sports picks ive put up here on the board, all the wild parlays i put up n' stuff right? by this time you'd have to think i must be living on the streets. well to 'redboard like a bat out of hell" 2-2 1/2 months ago i hit 0 with my offshore account and re-up'd another $300. since then i havent had to go into my pocket once to replenish my account as i churned that $300 into $9331 sport betting. theres been those times when ive had some good days without putting those wins and winners up here on the board and thats the only way i know how to explain it.
we know you aiint redoarding no matter how many winners you put up. dont even get caught up in that. if someone says " wa, wa, well how do we know you aint redboarding? " then you just say 'cause i aint' all there is to it.
but not really caring all that much about or being that big of a fan about the sport your handicapping might have an advantage to it in that your not swayed or being swayed by any biasness on your part.
exm. living here in LA and being a usc fan i was swayed by my own bias toward sc playing texas in the rose bowl and bet $2500, minus the points, on the trojans when i knew and refused to openly accknowledge or admitting at least to myself, as much that the bet without really all that much of a doubt was and should have been texas.
now if i lived in outter mongolia all my life and was given all the stats on both teams and had no preferences as to who wins the rose bowl then unequivically iam positive i would have said someting like 'well texas looks to me like a possible outrite winner and getting those points sure makes em look like a bet' and bet a quart of fresh squeezed yaks milk on the outcome. of coarse iam talking numbers and stats only.
but you will find that there are other things outside the numbers and stats that mix into and work along with sport handicaping as well. so get out the yak milk and pour me a glass will ya :D

Valuist
02-05-2006, 10:35 PM
I think a lot of people fail at sports betting because of unrealistic expectations. They see these scam artist ads claiming 70% or 75% ATS and the bottom line is.....NOBODY approaches that over the long haul. I'm not talking about 20 games but over 500. Realistically, I don't know anyone who hits over 60% over the long, long haul. But w/the lower vig at shops like Pinnacle, you don't have to hit 60% to make money. Most pros shoot for 55% to 58/59%.

I also would recommend a couple radio shows broadcast over the Internet out of Las Vegas. The Stardust Line has a show every day but the Sunday night show w/Dave Cokin is the best. During the week, sportsmemo.com has a good show w/solid sports handicappers. There's some advertising but it isn't overbearing. The cappers on these shows have very good insights.

For me, most of my sports wagering is on the NFL. With the 7% rebates, I try to focus as much of my handicapping energy as possible on racing, so sports like basketball and baseball I usually pass, although I'm sure come tourney time I will have a few plays.