overlooked

[46zilzal]

One of the things a long history of wagering teaches you is when to stop. The variations in this game, being what they are, dictate that on some days, YOUR APPROACH is going to bomb...It is best to understand those days as teaching experiences and move on. One real good defintion of stupidlty is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result. SOME DAYS it just doesn't happen regardless of the input, insight and experience of the player.

One thing that really differentiates the amateur from the more experienced.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If you win on a 4/5 shot in the first race, STOP! I'll take $80.00 profit!
AA will tell you HOW to stop if need be!
If I were a gambler I would not be betting racing at all- I would be playing scratch offs or Veteran's hall bingo.

[Dick Schmidt]

A classic problem in racing. You can never "win." There is always another race, another bet. Though you can certainly loose (run completely out of money), but where can you call yourself a winner? Unlike most sports, there is no clearly defined end of the event. No ninth inning, no final gun as the clock runs out. Just another race, another day. It never ends and thus we can never declare ourselves to have "won." The only person I know of who has addressed this problem, and also suggested solutions, is Dave Schwartz in his money management workbooks. He says that it is important to declare a victory once in a while and start anew. Otherwise you will eventually get your fingers caught in the gears and be ground to hamburger. Interesting point. We all need to win, and in a never ending game, it is hard to decide when enough is enough.

Dick
Brought to you by Zencrafters: Total enlightenment...in about an hour.

[BIG49010]

I personally call it refocus, when your on a streak take some off the table.

On the other hand when your on a loosing streak, I will drop down to my major track and watch things very closely until I start to turn a profit again.
You somewhat minimize your loss, with fewer races.

When it starts to roll again look at a few more tracks, the clear winning head sees more then the looser or chaser. In the past I have chased other tracks, and this can be a serious killer to the bankroll.

[Conquer]

Big - Well put, this is my own betting strategy as well.

[Wiley]

In the old days before simulcast you did have an end at least for that day with 8 or 9 live races then you went home, I guess on the east coast you might be able to play a day and night track but not in New Orleans where I played. With computer betting it is a free for all and when I first started playing on-line about 7 years ago I was a kid in a candy store playing way too many races it took me awhile to set limits and boundaries on my wagering.

One thing I keep a relatively low amount in my wagering accounts so at least there is some mental recognition to loss if I need to deposit funds. So if I make a nice score I immediately pull out my profits down to my set baseline and start over. Another problem I find with on-line wagering is the money becomes just numbers unlike physically going to the window and pulling out a couple of $20 bills and seeing first hand where your money is going if you lose. On the other hand I guess this is a good thing in the vein of poker players looking at chips as chips and not thinking about it as real money or it might affect your play.

Also agree with 46 on knowing when to stop on a particular bad day, this as much from a mental standpoint as financial because tough days can become confidence killers that affect your handicapping for extended periods if not dealt with in a timely manner.

[oddswizard]

I believe it is important to set a daily profit goal. If it is $200.00 per day then you quit when you reach that goal. It may be in the 1st race or the last race. When you set a goal and achieve it-you have succeeded at the races! If you are decent handicapper and set realistic goals, and quit when you reach this daily goal-you are on your way to success. It is not easy as most handicappers love action. If you follow this advice you will become an investor and not a gambler. Take the money & run!

[traynor]

Wiley wrote: <Also agree with 46 on knowing when to stop on a particular bad day, this as much from a mental standpoint as financial because tough days can become confidence killers that affect your handicapping for extended periods if not dealt with in a timely manner.>

There is another side to this issue. When, and how, do you decide you are having a "bad day"? And, in how many cases, is that the complete opposite of what you "should" do?

If the decision to bet or not is based entirely on a subjective evaluation of whether you are "doing well" or "doing poorly," then subjective impressions (or "moods," defined by Gurney Halleck in Dune as only fit for cattle and lovemaking) determine whether or not you should wager. This seems a bit too much emphasis on the subjective.

If you have developed a level of skill (or if you have a computer app that is worth more than a left-over, half-eaten Dunkin doughnut) it should make no differenece whatsoever what your subjective impression is--the results should be the same whether you are "confident" or not. The belief that mental state affects external reality is quaintly defined in the DSM-IV as "magical thinking," a major symptom of schizophreniform personality disorder.

With all due respect to the salespeople of the world who believe that "positive thinking" and sticky notes that say "You are a Winner" on the bathroom mirror influence the outcome of random variable events, I totally disagree.

I would argue that the complete opposite is true. I bet professionally. I bet exactly the same horses, in the same races, whether I feel good, feel bad, lost a horrendous string of races, won every one of the last 6 or 7 at generous mutuels--it literally doesn't matter. The reason for that is simple.

I learned that my moods do not affect the outcome of the races. Horse A will not bonk in the stretch because I am depressed, nor will it go faster because I bet on it. That entire line of thinking is a prescription for disaster (as well as bankruptcy, if you bet on it). Underlying all the statements about subjective opinions and moods are spins on the concept of "I do better when I feel good."

While interesting, the logic is flawed. There are any number of psych studies that argue the opposite--you feel good because you are doing well, not the other way around. Try the James-Lange hypotheisis for starters. The bottom line is even simpler--if subjective opinions influence your results, you should focus primarily on controlling and training those subjective impressions, not following their dictates.

My views are based on pragmatic experience, not rah-rah, stem-winder self-help manuals from the drugstore. Some of the biggest wins of my life followed almost disastrous losing sessions. Some of the biggest losses of my life followed periods of high self-confidence (based exclusively on a cluster of random events tilting to the win side, rather than the loss side).

If I win the first race, make a score, should I then take the money and run? Not really. Because after 20 years of very hard work, I realized that the horses are completely unaffected by my moods, opinions, and (even more remarkably) the tote board. They do pretty much what they are going to do, whether I bet on them or not.

That realization is critical in the development of a professional handicapper. If you believe that the outcome of a subsequent race is dictated by your subjective opinion of the outcome of previous races, and that whether you win or lose is dictated by your subjective opinion or mood of the moment, I strongly advise you to take up another line of work. Either that, or admit that you enjoy handicapping, enjoy betting, and are doing it primarily for fun, rather than for money.

For me, it is all in the money. If betting were not profitable, I would ignore it as thoroughly as I ignore stamp collecting or punk music. And after many years of practice, I have reached a point where I realize I am going to be doing this for a long time (as long as it is profitable), and there are no "winning sessions" or "losing sessions." There are only results that go into an Excel spreadsheet to be tallied periodically for tax purposes, and studied to find areas of possible improvement.

This is not a popular view; I understand that. I understand even more that allowing the result of one or more previous races to affect your behavior in wagering on subsequent races is every bit as bad as allowing the result of one sales call to affect your performance on the next sales call. Every race is a new race, and the horses have no interest whatsoever in your mood. If you are sure of your handicapping, bet. If you are not, go home and work on making it better. Do NOT fall for the absurd notion that your subjective moods influence the outcome of random variable events.

Bottom line. Take responsibility for the results. If you lose, YOU lost, not because you were in a "losing mood" but because you bet on the wrong horse. If you win, YOU win. Once you realize that it is your own actions, your own handicapping, your own analysis, that is at cause you will wind up like sjk (and a number of other successful bettors on this forum)--betting 7000 races a year without even knowing (or caring about) the names of the horses you bet on. You may also wind up making some serious profit, occasionally on days that you feel like detritus with two left feet and no hope of ever being anything except a total failure. Horses don't care how you feel.
Good Luck

[twindouble]

Traynor;

Gee, don't you think there's other investments out there that you can just let it ride and do just as well if not better? What's the point in playing the horses if your not involved in the race? Hell, to me the best part about racing is making the race, in other words having it run as I figured it. Yes, I'll route that horse home that I figured that would gobble them up in the stretch, every stride is exciting when run true to form, can't beat that! Plus you can give the jock credit for a good ride and admire the horse that put his all in the race. Not withstanding the fact I made a huge score. :cool:


To each his own I guess.

Good luck,

T.D.

[Valuist]

I somewhat agree w/Traynor. Its true our moods will not affect horse's performances. It is also true that our moods could affect our betting.

If we are in a slump it could be the result of a) a random period of negative results, or b) WE weren't prepared as well as we should've been or made some wrong decisions. The majority of the time its probably a combination.

One area I never see addressed is "battling". To me this is when you start out the day poorly; your horses either run poorly or you run 1-3 in the exacta or lose photos. Its midway thru the card and you've made 10 plays and haven't cashed a ticket. But your strongest opinions are still to come. I say you can't let the previous results cloud your thinking. Don't try and get your losses back needlessly, and also don't back down from a play you like just because you feel snakebit that day.

I agree w/Traynor that we can't get too caught up in the short run. We have a tendency to put too much emphasis on recent results; thinking we're better than we are when things are going good, and worse than we are when things are going bad.

[twindouble]

I somewhat agree w/Traynor. Its true our moods will not affect horse's performances. It is also true that our moods could affect our betting.

If we are in a slump it could be the result of a) a random period of negative results, or b) WE weren't prepared as well as we should've been or made some wrong decisions. The majority of the time its probably a combination.

One area I never see addressed is "battling". To me this is when you start out the day poorly; your horses either run poorly or you run 1-3 in the exacta or lose photos. Its midway thru the card and you've made 10 plays and haven't cashed a ticket. But your strongest opinions are still to come. I say you can't let the previous results cloud your thinking. Don't try and get your losses back needlessly, and also don't back down from a play you like just because you feel snakebit that day.

I agree w/Traynor that we can't get too caught up in the short run. We have a tendency to put too much emphasis on recent results; thinking we're better than we are when things are going good, and worse than we are when things are going bad.

:lol: anyone who thinks yelling at a TV, computer or at the track effects the out come of a race is a lunatic to begin with but being involved in the race is where the fun is. To say being involved makes you a loser some how, I don't agree with. There is do's and dont's when it comes to gambling and how you handle yourself is important, ESP having the right frame of mind and that's don't include not enjoying the game.

[betchatoo]

I agree with Traynor we need to take responsibility for our actions. I also know, that unless you are making strictly mechanical plays, that your mood can have an effect on your handicapping. It's a natural thing. Mood can effect anything we do from playing sports to dealing with other people.

[Valuist]

TD-

The only people who are "involved in the race" truly are the owners, jockeys and trainers. Maybe the grooms also.

[twindouble]

I agree with Traynor we need to take responsibility for our actions. I also know, that unless you are making strictly mechanical plays, that your mood can have an effect on your handicapping. It's a natural thing. Mood can effect anything we do from playing sports to dealing with other people.

Yes, we have to chew our food before we swallow, unless your still on pablum. I don't by the idea if someone is having fun some how he or she lost in and not in control. I worry more about the ones that shows no emotion and doesn't get involved.


T.D.

[traynor]

twindouble wrote: <Yes, we have to chew our food before we swallow, unless your still on pablum. I don't by the idea if someone is having fun some how he or she lost in and not in control. I worry more about the ones that shows no emotion and doesn't get involved.>

I agree wholeheartedly. Betting is fun. The only thing I disagree with is the idea that fun can take the place of winning. I would rather have fun winning than have fun and ignore the fact that I am losing because I am having fun. There is nothing whatsoever wrong with having fun, unless it serves as a rationalization for losing. Conversely, to alter wagers based on mood, or to start or stop wagering based on mood, seems a poor way to approach betting.
Good Luck

[toetoe]

Traynor,

As a stemwinder from way back ( :liar: ), I agree wholeheartedly. How much real money has gone up in smoke because somebody hit a signup, determined he was on fire, and proceeded to quadruple his bet size? How much has been left on the table by people so steamed they couldn't stick around for their best bets?

[twindouble]

twindouble wrote: <Yes, we have to chew our food before we swallow, unless your still on pablum. I don't by the idea if someone is having fun some how he or she lost in and not in control. I worry more about the ones that shows no emotion and doesn't get involved.>

I agree wholeheartedly. Betting is fun. The only thing I disagree with is the idea that fun can take the place of winning. I would rather have fun winning than have fun and ignore the fact that I am losing because I am having fun. There is nothing whatsoever wrong with having fun, unless it serves as a rationalization for losing. Conversely, to alter wagers based on mood, or to start or stop wagering based on mood, seems a poor way to approach betting.
Good Luck

traynor; Let me be clear if it's possable. :D I agree one shouldn't just plunge if he's in a bad mood, that's down right dumb or go home and take it out on the wife on a losing day. You can't be out of control betting the horses or anything else. I said you have to be in the right frame of mind, also said in other posts winning and losing is part of the game, everyone knows that. But to say there's no place for emotion win or lose is ignoring the humanity in all of us. This is a sport to enjoy and yes make a good buck at it to boot if your good at it. Being good at it is knowing how to gamble as well as handicap in my opinion.

One of my most exciting days at the track was just getting nipped at the wire for huge pick 6 and I was happy with the consolation payoff and felt good about my handicapping. As matter of fact, I settled down and hit the last race as well, not huge but another good job of handicaping. That's the right frame of mind, plus I can go on about losing and how I never lose confidence in what do or how I go about it and still enjoy racing not go off the deep end. To plug in a bunch numbers and not be involed in calling the races prior or watching them isn't in my opinion the essence of the game.


T.D.

[BMeadow]

Traynor's comments above should be required reading for anyone who expects (or hopes) to play this game seriously.

Whether you're in a good mood, just lost a photo for $12,000, are in the midst of a bad run, just hit the first two races, or had a fight with your wife, should have no bearing on your approach. The horses don't care.

If you have a method which earns you money, as shown by your long-term written records, there is no reason to stop playing.

Conversely, if you have not achieved long-term success, there is no reason to start playing (except as a hobby).

If you have an edge, play. If you don't have an edge, don't play. Simple as that.

[Wiley]

Traynor,
I think you missed my point or jumped to a conclusion in including my quote as the lead to your mood manifest performance post. Obviously nothing we as bettors do has any effect on the physical performance of the horses unless you're the wacko years ago who jumped the fence Preakness day and tried to smack Artax.

I meant for someone like me, and I should have prefaced I am not a professional, I look at handicapping as a game similar to bridge or chess and try to use as many tools available to me to provide insight into the outcome of a particular race. I do not bet thousands of races so each race I bet for the most part I am involved in from the paddock to cool down, there is much subjectivity in what I do and maybe I could improve my betting performance with a cookbook/modeling methodology which it sounds like you have mastered but I just have always been resistant to go that route thinking the game would lose it's luster to me.

My point to one's state of mind goes to clarity in analysis, just like a college board exam result can be threatened by having a 'bad' day. My hat's off to you if you don't ever worry about tapping out, paying the mortgage etc. and your confidence in your model never wavers, I guess as long as you are showing a healthy profit why should it and I guess in the same vein I have been showing a healthy profit with my approach so why should I change.

[twindouble]

[QUOTE=Wiley maybe I could improve my betting performance with a cookbook/modeling methodology which it sounds like you have mastered but I just have always been resistant to go that route thinking the game would lose it's luster to me.

QUOTE] The cookbook modeling methodology. :lol: I'd rather go to the track with you. Sorry traynor but you sound boring to me.


T.D.

[boxcar]

There is another side to this issue. When, and how, do you decide you are having a "bad day"? And, in how many cases, is that the complete opposite of what you "should" do?

Excellent post and sound advice, Traynor! As an ex-f/t player, I considered myself to be a very mentally-tough, cold-hearted player who would not allow my emotions or moods to sway me or influence my play one way or the other.

But also, I would take little sabatticals routinely from the game to once again find my humanity. :)

Boxcar

[twindouble]

Excellent post and sound advice, Traynor! As an ex-f/t player, I considered myself to be a very mentally-tough, cold-hearted player who would not allow my emotions or moods to sway me or influence my play one way or the other.

But also, I would take little sabatticals routinely from the game to once again find my humanity. :)

Boxcar

Boxcar you don't have to cold hearted to make smart wagers, now do you? Don't tell me when you picked an $80 horses it didn't give you a lift and you had to reset for the next one. That's all I'm talking about, it's a good feeling when you can handle the ups and downs and come out on top.

I can remember looking at a race, come up with a horse I thought would be 2-1, looked up at the tote and low and behold he was 19-1,:eek: that moved me to a different betting strategy. :jump:

T.D.