DT.com: Bull/Hutch Donn Day Features..

[DerbyTrail]

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WEATHER COULD SPOIL GREAT DAY OF RACING IN FL, MD, KY

Bad racing luck... The incredible afternoon of coast-to-coast action, with important races scheduled at Gulfstream, Laurel, Turfway and Santa Anita, looks likely to be marred by winter weather in all but one of the four venues hosting Saturday stakes. Heavy rains in Florida and Maryland and snow in Northern Kentucky put a damper on what otherwise looks like the best Saturday of equine competition since the Breeders' Cup last October.

The Old Hat (Gr. III), Davona Dale (Gr. II), Suwannee River (Gr. III), Hutcheson (Gr. II), Holy Bull (Gr. III) and Donn Handicap (Gr. I) are featured on the best card Gulfstream has written in years, while Magna counterpart facility Laurel is highlighted by the listed Miracle Wood and Santa Anita the Sham (Gr. III) and Strub (Gr. I). South of Cincinnati, Turfway runs the first three year old stake in the Lane's End Series, the listed and ever-popular WEBN Frog.

Let's get to the action...

GP-4, Old Hat Stakes (Gr. III, $100,000) 2:16 p.m., 3-year-old fillies, 6 1/2 furlongs

1. Swap Fliparoo (FL), 119, (Castellano/A. Jerkens) 10-1: Oft-seen grey goes 2nd off break, drilled big, adds Lasix and moves to Castellano. Likes it wet and looks overlaid. Using.
2. Somethinaboutbetty (MD), 119, (DeCarlo/Pletcher) 6-1: $300K Forestry bay first of 107 today from Pletcher... Jumped up off Mdn win to grab MD Juvy Championship and would need to avoid regression today to impact. Slop a plus...
3. Smart N Pretty (KY), 115, (Guidry/Romans) 4-1: Nice SAR yearling buy ($250K) by Elusive Quality reacted last time to big try versus good Joint Effort in CD alw. Bay skipped softer spot yesterday in favor of this. Factor.
4. Misty Rosette (KY), 115, (Madrid/Chapman) 4-1: Speedy local, untested in pair of wire jobs in CRC MSW and TAM stake, looks like main rival for lead with Pletcher-Velasquez fave outside. Could take some beating...
5. Miraculous Miss (KY), 119, (Dominguez/Klesaris) 5-2: $350K Puglisi purchase perfect in 3 tries at DEL/AQU and posted fitting fig as lone graded winner in group when last seen 11/20. Stalker-closer yet another player in small but well-matched field.
6. Yachats (KY), 115, (Velazquez/Pletcher) 2-1: Buzz Chace tabbed this Forest Camp bay for M/M Jones, and 2/2 Pletcher trainee looms large as choice. Not significantly faster than several here; fine in mud; should get front end company; while serious, will have to prove out as best.

SELECTIONS: 5-6-1-3


GP-5, $33K ALW/N1x, 7f: Important allowance featuring several Derby Trail hopefuls...

1. Superfly (Prado/Zito) 3-1: LaPenta FuPeg colt returns from 90+ day break..
5. Go Bucky Go (Bejarano/Foley) 6-1: Interesting TP export from the Foleys may be emerging..
6. Noonmark (Bridgmohan/Asmussen) 5-2: Beaten by High Cotton and Ramsgate in debut, demolished OK field second try. Saw it wet both times..
10. Mantoloking (Velasquez/Pletcher) 5-1: Won at first asking, drilled at this oval from impossible post in soph return. Got no favors from pill box again today..
11. Tactoro (Guidry/Passley) 10-1: Calder type a cut beneath on 'class', but fits on figs..



GP-6, Davona Dale Stakes (Gr. II, $150,000) 3:17 p.m., 3-year-old fillies, 1 1/8 miles

1. Mia's Reflection (FL), 119, (Cruz/Rose) 12-1: Rose family CRC stakes winner takes blinks off, returns to Manny. Overmatched.
2. Teammate (KY), 115, (C. Velasquez/A. Jerkens) 4-1: Grey A.P. Indy predictably took awhile to get going, but experience, added distance, slop all help her cause.
3. Meadow Skippin (FL), 115, (Guidry/Rivelli) 20-1: Ocala Skip Away grey in over her head, but mudlarked in N2L two back.
4. Stolen Prayer (FL), 119, (Castro/Plesa) 5-1: Three Ring winner should get to corner first off break with two to right following. Ability to stay on the question.
5. Wait a While (KY), 119, (Velazquez/Pletcher) 3-1: $260K Maria's Mon won Miss Grillo, then no match for Demoiselle winner when last seen; Has turf drilled and competed; mixed signals.
6. Bushfire (FL), 117, (Prado/Kenneally) 4-1: Clever trainer showing up more and more often in elite company, and this Louis Quatorze bay has run nice set of figs in 3/2-0-1 career with plenty of upside yet. Has post challenge clearing immediately for pacesetting duties. Tough call.
7. Wonder Lady Anne L (KY), 119, (Bejarano/Dutrow) 2-1: Fave, tabbed for purchase by Derby Trailer Mike ("The Kid") Pawluck last May, will need to adjust to mud and wide start. Is not faster than Teammate and Bushfire, so Raphy must use smarts first time in irons. Logical, but no lock for top.

SELECTIONS: 2-7-6-5


GP-7, Suwannee River Handicap (Gr. III-T, $100,000) 3:48 p.m., Fillies & Mares 3 & up, 9f

SELECTIONS: (No need to take short prices in this affair... Tight group.)

4. Noble Stella (GER), 114, (Castro/Attfield) 3-1
1. Marchonin (KY), 114, (Velazquez/Matz) 12-1
8. Moon Dazzle (KY), 112, (Blanc/Clement) 12-1
12. On the Bus (NY), 114, (Guidry/Romans) 6-1
9. Laurafina (KY), 114, (Bejarano/Barbar) 5-1

Eyes on Eddy and Taittinger Rose entered for main track only. (If race comes off, both go to top of selections...)
5. Eyes On Eddy (KY), 114, (Bejarano/McGee) 5-2
6. Taittinger Rose (KY), 115, (C. Velasquez/Mott) 8-1


GP-8, Hutcheson Stakes (Gr. II, $150,000) 4:20 p.m., 3-year-olds, 7.5f

1. City Attraction (KY), 118, (C. Velasquez/Ziadie) 12-1: Square price on Buckram KEE buy that has moved a lot in three starts. Inclined to watch and track..
2. Keyed Entry (KY), 116, (J. Velazquez/Pletcher) 5-2: Honour and Glory colt from familiar connections looks like lone speed. The one to catch and literally "key"..
3. Catcominatcha (KY), 120, (Castellano/Kenneally) 12-1: Gr. III Iroquois winner regressed a bit in KY JC, bit more in Aventura. Could top andstill not place..
4. Express News (KY), 118, (Dominguez/Motion) 12-1: Derby Trail policy is to always play Motion when a 'price'. Storm Cat/Forty Niner dam product circling back to big DEL maiden-breaker. Exotics contributor..
5. Almost Certain (KY), 120, (Sutherland/Evans) 30-1: Gelding from owner-trainer-breeder looks like nice allowance colt..
6. Blazing Rate (FL), 122, (Penalba/Root) 6-1: Exchange Rate red 4/3-0-1 in Dade County and regular rider, winless on meet, sticks. Off since Oct and hard to envision him ready for top choices here..
7. First Samurai (KY), 122, (Prado/Brothers) 6-5: Derby Trailer Lansdon Robbins' Giant's Causeway juvy star takes initial step towards Louisville today and doesn't get best scenario. Is looking to rate, and will likely have to make up lots of ground on 'Keyed' late. Probably not his day..
8. Fabled (KY), 118, (Bejarano/Zito) 6-1: Tracy Farmer looking for '06 Derby player with $325K Tale of the Cat through another Forty Niner dam. Couldn't get to Rehobeth (entered Holy Bull) in ALW comebacker, but looks tighter now for late run under Raphy..

SELECTIONS: 2-7-8-4


GP-9, Holy Bull Stakes (Gr. III, $150,000) 4:50 p.m., 3-year-olds, 9f

Most intriguing race of the day with a group so evenly matched there is little handicapping to do.. Take best group of prices and box for exotics..

1. Big Lover (FL), 116, (Alvarado, Jr./Salinas) 20-1: MD-bred has kept good company and is always competitive. Overlay and worth using..
2. Doctor Decherd (KY), 120, (Bridgmohan/Asmussen) 6-1: Aventura surprise looks nearly certain to regress..
3. Sunriver (KY), 118, (Bejarano/Pletcher) 8-1: One of 3 Pletcher's here, Jones' home-bred figures a must-use at every angle..
4. Hemingway's Key (FL), 116, (Castellano/Zito) 10-1: Steinbrenner family Ocala buy 2/2, improving with distance. Can't ignore..
5. Barbaro (KY), 122, (Prado/Matz) 7-2: Turf tiger tries main as a "look and see", but reminds us of Kitten's Joy so far. Tough if dirt-friendly..
6. Fagan's Legacy (KY), 120, (Castro/Breen) 20-1: Bargain buy at KEE won OTT Pilgrim, but has been blasted in good company since..
7. Saint Augustus (KY), 120, (DeCarlo/Pletcher) 12-1: What a Pleasure hero likely didn't care for Bozier bullring. Forgive that and grab overlay..
8. Flashy Bull (KY), 118, (C. Velasquez/McLaughlin) 6-1: West Point Derby hopeful off since Remsen second to fine Bluegrass Cat. Expect big try.
9. My Golden Song (KY), 116, (J. Velazquez/Pletcher) 10-1: "Now" horse has tight figs, jump potential; but with poor post, prefer others more..
10. Itsallboutthechase (KY), 118, (Guidry/Simms) 4-1: Has rallied wide in last pair, just missing v. Deckerd in Aventura. No value, but a player..
11. Rehoboth (FL), 116, (Blanc/Gomez) 15-1: Ran huge at 12-1 besting Fabled, Express News last time. Expect bounce..
12. Park Avenue Prince (VA), 118, (Dominguez/Klesaris) 12-1: DEL back-to-back MSW/ALW winner regressed last. Needs trip, but will be forgotten on board and could juive bottom of exotics
13. (AE) Great Point (KY), 116, (Rose/Zito) 8-1: $450K LaPenta Point Given wasn't ready for graded company at 2, but looks on the move..
14. (AE) Barcola (KY), 116, (Landry/Harty) 15-1: Darley Old Trieste chestnut would have front end work cut out if drawn in..

SELECTIONS: 7-1-3-12-8


GP-10, Donn Handicap (Gr. I, $500,000) 5:20 p.m., 3 & up, 9f

2. On Thin Ice (KY), 116, (Bridgmohan/Orseno) 4-1: Always root for Nice Guy Joe, but career top in last precludes bounce today. Too short a number in good group..
3. Suave (KY), 117, (Prado/McGee) 3-1: Logical contender 2nd choice on ML and most eligible to sit perfect trip. Bejarano opts for Hero, but that's a Zito thing..
4. West Virginia (NY), 114, (DeCarlo/Pletcher) 12-1: Reliable NY-bred stakes player removes blinks but has never b een fast enough to beat best here..
5. Magna Graduate (KY), 119, (J. Velazquez/Pletcher) 5-2: $1MM '05 winner suddenly on stales win skein, but must run "negative" number to beat 3 others here..
6. Super Frolic (KY), 118, (C. Velasquez/Cerin) 4-1: Interesting move by Vlad to ship here with big events back home, so BC Classic superfecta hoss a 'go' to us..
1. Seek Gold (KY), 113, (Castellano/Zito) 6-1: First of three horse entry from Nick always solid..
1a. Andromeda's Hero (KY), 115, (Bejarano/Zito) 6-1: Took longer to get good than expected, but FuPeg son got graded win last in Hooper..
1x. Pies Prospect (KY), 114, (Rose/Zito) 6-1: Most likely of the three Zitos to run big..
7. Brass Hat (KY), 118, (Martinez/Bradley) 8-1: Bradley family meal ticket clearly back 100% and another that needs career best to win, typical effort for check..

SELECTIONS: 6-3-1e-7

Santa Anita, Laurel, Turfway to follow....

[OTM Al]

Saw these live through the raindrops yesterday. Still not sure what I'm supposed to think about Brass Hat. There was no great standout in that field, yet this guy is putting a nice win streak together. Still amazed by the run First Samauri and Keyed Entry ran. 1:07.3 to 6f, which would have anhilated the track record (though only a season and a half on this track config...) by almost a second.FS gets no black mark for being edged out on a furious pace like that. Barbaro looked good too, but I find his competition questionable. I was kinda hoping he stuck to turf as connections were actually considering trying the Epsom Derby. Also the big summer turf series is out there for him too but now he may well continue on the dirt...always time to switch back later though I guess.

[DerbyTrail]

The weekend sophomore stakes, allowance and maiden action helped define early position on the Derby Trail pecking order. The return of First Samurai and emergence of Keyed Entry in the Hutcheson, a mud romp by Barbaro in the Holy Bull, and dominant performances by Bob and John (Sham), Sweetnorthernsaint (Miracle Wood) and Warrior Within (WEBN) all went a long way towards establishing the "next level" as January gave way to February on the most arduous campaign in sports.

In the meantime, the attrition portion of the "Louisville Death March" reared its' head Monday, as Eclipse-winning Juvenile Stevie Wonderboy suffered a condylar fracture that will sideline him for at least three months, and puts the Merv Griffin-owned-Doug O'Neill-trained colt's future in serious doubt. Griffin called the first high profile injury of the Class of '06 the saddest thing to ever happen in his life, and O'Neill, though stoic, appeared particularly disappointed with the setback.

But for every call to AAA on the long road to Louisville, there is always 2-3 shiny new models that whiz by the stranded equine motorist, and the past 96 hours was no different...

SAMURAI RETURNS IN SPEEDY HUTCH

In the Hutcheson, Todd Pletcher's KEYED ENTRY figured tough in a race that was devoid of any other early speed to go with the Honour and Glory colt that had won his his July debut at Monmouth and a Gulfstream N1X four weeks earlier in a zippy 1:09.2. FIRST SAMURAI was making his return to the races here after a brilliant juvenile campaign that culminated in a BC third at Belmont in October. It is a good thing that trainer Frank Brothers had Derby Trailer Lansdon Robbins' Giant's Causeway's chestnut fit, as the confrontation with Keyed Entry turned into a scintillating match race between the two.

On a loose, rain-soaked surface featuring a quagmire along the inside, Keyed Entry gunned from the 2 hole and was angled right by jockey John Velasquez to meet First Samurai and Edgar Prado 40 yards from the gate in the middle of the racetrack. The gambit was a brilliant manuever by the increasingly-adroit Velasquez as it ensured that the highweighted Champagne winner, giving 6 pounds to Keyed Entry, would be kept at least a path wider in the 7.5f voyage.

The pair raced around the one turn course in :22.0, :44.0 and an outrageous 1:07.3 for 6f with First Samurai always flanking Keyed Entry by a half-length or so. Down the Gulfstream straight, Keyed Entry maintained and increased his lead to over a length, as First Samurai failed to change leads and could not gain equal footing. The pair stopped the teletimer in 1:27.0, both smashing the track record with Keyed Entry earning a 110 Beyer and First Samurai a 107, both career bests.

The win confirmed the confidence Pletcher had voiced in his trainee's ability, and he will next be tested for his endurance attributes, possibly in the 9f Fountain of Youth. Sire Honour and Glory did get last year's tragic UAE Derby winner Blues and Royals and Juvenile filly Champion Caressing, but Keyed Entry suffers from the "RAN curse" with Fappiano as his damsire. Some stamina influence could be contributed to Keyed Entry through Belmont winner Avatar who sired his second dam Ava Romance, but overall his pedigree says 9f will be his limit, with a mile being his ideal trip.

For First Samurai, the comeback was as successful as a frustrating placement in record time can be according to Robbins and co-owner Bruce Lunsford. We watched the race with the large Robbins-Lunsford party, and no one was too distraught by the effort, and rightly so. Besides being off 98 days, giving half dozen pounds to the winner, going in a one-turn race, running wide and failing to change leads, First Samurai is a bulky colt that was at a great disadvantage on the Hallandale strip given his heft. With his hoofs driving to the absolute and hard base of the race track, it was a courageous effort. The best news for the "1st Sam" camp is that the big fella "ate up" Saturday night and Sunday morning, was not exhausted from the travail, and according to Brothers' son Bob, "looks like he hadn't even run a race".

Behind the top pair, Nick Zito's FABLED was an even trip 5th, and Derby Trail outsider BLAZING RATE despised the going and was last of the 7.

HOLY BULL A SPLASHY COMING OUT FOR BARBARO

Mike Matz' BARBARO was made the 8-5 favorite for his "dirt" debut in the 9f Holy Bull, and while the well-regarded Dynaformer son held on to top hard-charging GREAT POINT after chasing Doctor Decherd for three-quarters, it is impossible to draw conclusions about his Derby prospects from the victory. While pundits and fans have gleefully anointed the undefeated Lael Stables dark bay "the next big thing", all we still know is that Dynaformer's remain terrific on the grass and in the mud.

While the connections should be pleased with the exploits of their dual Gr. III winner, they will have to wait and see how Barbaro performs on a fast dirt track before making reservations at the Galt House for the first weekend in May. He has the classic "high action" of a grass runner, and as we opined Saturday, looks more like a Kitten's Joy than a Peace Rules. In the meantime, jockey Edgar Prado may have to make a decision in early March should Barbaro and First Samurai both decide to contest the Fountain of Youth.

Another aspect of the Holy Bull that leaves us scratching our heads about those involved was the obvious success of the horses that were fortunate to be drawn outside in the field of 12. Great Point (2nd from the #12), My Golden Song (3rd from the #9), Flashy Bull (4th from the #8) and Itsallaboutthechase (5th from the #10), all may have taken advantage of the firmer footing on the crown of the oval as opposed to those that were anywhere on the "sodden side of the street".

Great Point, the LaPenta-Zito Point Given colt, looked best of the bunch late, commencing an attack after 6f which went in a solid 1:10.1. It was his first black type performance after awkward tries in the Gr. III Remsen and Gr. II KY JC last year, and he looks to be another one of the later-developing sons that his father appears to fostering. My Golden Song may have turned in a better-than-it-looked performance, with the Pletcher player staying in touch with the pace-setters while four wide all the way around the loop. With thirds in this and the Aventura, the Unbridled's Song grey remains a square "must watch" for Centaur Farms. West Point Stables gaggle of owners seemed very pleased with their charge's return to at three as Flashy Bull continued to display talent and heart chasing hte pace close up before tiring a bit late in his first run in 70 days since a second to Bluegrass Cat in the Remsen.

Behind the top finishers, it's hard to get down on the also rans who were getting mud in their eyes for the first time or setting foot on unfamiliar terra-not-so-firma. Though Jones-Pletcher plebe Sunriver is bred for the mud, the Saint Ballado product clearly was uncomfortable with the footing as he ran for about a half mile before gearing it down and jogging the rest of the way to his first off the board finish. We'll toss the race when looking at his next start... We were expecting a big effort from Pletcher's Saint Augustus in the Holy Bull after the unpleasantries in the Bayou last time, so his 9th place try is another effort that can only be called inconclusive in his first tour of a wet racetrack... Zito's Steinbrenner chestnut Hemingway's Key may be another who simply hated the off-going, as he tried for about 4f before mailing it in the rest of the way...

BOB AND JOHN GIVES BAFFERT BIG SHOT

Stung by disappointments Friday with Royal Legacy and Point Determined, Bob Baffert saw the Derby hopeful performance he was looking for Saturday in the Sham when BOB AND JOHN was the easiest of winners in the Gr. III Sham. Sent off at 2-5, the Seeking the Gold colt via Deputy Minister mare Minister's Melody comfortably stalked Wes Ward's Hawkinsville through 6f in 1:12 before responding to Victor Espinoza's stick at the quarter pole. Bob and John burst by the erstwhile pacesetter and drove home in a nice :37 to win by nearly five lengths.

Although the field was abbreviated to four competitors, the effort should provide excellent intermediate foundation for the Stonerside homebred going forward. Bob and John owns a steadily improving Beyer and Thoro-Graph Speed Figures, as well as the perfert running style for Derby success. He immediately replaces Stevie Wonderboy at the top of the list of West Coast Rose Run candidaqtes, and is only going to get better. Simply put, the mundanely monikered Bob and John should share top honors overall on anyone's Derby Watch List with First Samurai.

PROSPECT ROUND-UP

Since you never know where a Derby hopeful will come from, races like the WEBN Frog and Miracle Wood can be intriguing. SWEETNORTHERNSAINT had no competition Saturday at Laurel in his 10+ length romp, but the Miracle Wood winner had already Beyered 102 and run low single digit Thoro-Graph numbers in his prior spint victories. Described by trainer Mike Trometta as the best horse he's ever been around, Sweetnorthernsaint stretched comfortably to a one turn mile in the Maryland countryside and now must try two turns and find some graded stakes earnings if Louisville is his intended destination.

The Florida-bred gelding should not be casually dismissed as he is bred with a very nice balance of speed and stamina including a 4x5 in-breed to enduring endurance influence Herbager. His young sire has been an unqualified success at stud getting stakes winners at a variety of distances like General John B, Better Than Bonds and Sir Jackie.

The weekend's other stakes winner was WARRIOR WITHIN in the WEBN Frog, a first level listed event in the Battaglia-Rushaway-Lanes' End Series. Daniel Smithwick's by colt is a son of another good young sire in the Ramsey's Catienus, and he ran away from a solid group to win by 5 in snowy Northern Kentucky.

More on him and the ALW/MDN winners as well as further reviews of Gulfstream and our attendance of the Bobby Umphrey rememberence upon our return to Saratoga...

Steve