sloppy tracks

[lamboruns]

As an inexpierenced handicapper i noticed this sunday at OP on a sloppy track.. The computer picks i use...it was the average speed closers that were winning...i picked up on this today reviewing the races. the horses in the middle of my list of picks....would come in at the top of the races...usually 1-2-3 or 2-1-3...i noticed the speed figures of these horses where average for the race. I thought usually on a sloppy track front runners won...but they were getting caught in the stretch every race save 1 by a closer.
any thoughts??

[46zilzal]

EVERY track has it's fingerprint AND at the beginning of a season, animals are bringing in those peculiarites from OTHER venues. One can only get the fingerprint when the majority of the field has contested races on the same surface.

[Bobby]

Throw out the whole weekend at OP and start over is what I'd do.

You'll probably never again see just 3 wire to wire winners during a weekend at Oaklawn again.

[xfile]

speed always rules at OP.....you'll see 30-1 shots go and never hit a wall.....and then gallop out past the wire...i love this track :cool:

[JackS]

Tracks can be slow to rate their surface from fast to wf to sloppy to muddy. An initial drizzle might improve early speed. A sudden downpour could have the same effect except that the track will go to sloppy and become muddy at some point.
You might be able to predict (sooner than the track) when a track has gone from sloppy and fast to muddy and slow. Speed bias can change on all three and I would suppose that some tracks maintain a speed bias even in the mud.
Always best to get a handle on the track your playing.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Races 1-7 rainy, sloppy(sealed), only 1 winner was more than 2 1/2 lengths back at the 1/2; no winner had a 6f time of less than 1:13.
Is that truly a "sloppy" track just because it was sealed Saturday nite? I doubt it.
Races 8+ clear, closers. Must have gotten plenty of rain on the track by then. You have to monitor off-tracks contantly yourself if possible. Just for kicks, if you go to a lot of live races, invest in a cheap stopwatch an see if you can monitor some fractions yourself. You may get a better idea of how the horses are Really handling various parts of the track!

[Lasix1]

Throw out the whole weekend at OP and start over is what I'd do.You'll probably never again see just 3 wire to wire winners during a weekend at Oaklawn again.

I live just a few furlongs from Oaklawn, and it was indeed a weird opening weekend. Actually, out of 28 races during the 3-day opening, there were only two wire-to-wire winners: More Moonlight in the 6f feature race, "The American Beauty" for fillies and mares on Saturday, and Biscuits and Buns in a 6f maiden event on Sunday during a deluge that the Arkansas drought desperately needed, but Oaklawn didn't.

Every other race during the three days was won by an off-the-pace type; in fact, only 6 winners during the entire 28 races lay better than 4th at the 2nd call and most were a lot further back than that.

Oaklawn is, as you say, usually an early speed track, and my guess is it will get back to normal, but it sure wasn't opening weekend and if you blindly bet early speed you got killed.

On the other hand, while there were a couple of long-shot surprises, the winners were mainly logical choices on class, speed and pace, and the early, collapsing speed was, for the most part, cheap.

[lamboruns]

i go to oaklawn a few times a year living here in arkansas...it was a very strange weekend...but an enjoyable one to follow...this weekend could be the same on saturday and sunday..they are expecting rain here...here is to longshots THAT WE BET coming thru...good luck everyone

[Bobby]

lambo: hope you hit 1 or 2 of those longshots today at OP! :D

The track is still quite unfriendly to early speed. Really surprsing. It must the sloppy track. Outside posts are having little trouble winning as well.

Im sure it'll all change though.