cj
07-10-2002, 04:55 PM
I start by looking at the number of contenders I have (we all have our own methods of this). I then figure out the raw percentage of contenders to field size, average with 100%, and come up with the expected percentage one of my contenders will win.
Example, I have 4 contenders in a 10 horse field. Natural % would be 40%, averaged with 100%, tells me I have a 70% chance one of my contenders will win.
Another, I have only one contender in a 6 horse field, so 16% averaged with 100% gives me a 58% chance of being right.
Works good for me, anyone do anything similiar, or totally different?
CJ
Example, I have 4 contenders in a 10 horse field. Natural % would be 40%, averaged with 100%, tells me I have a 70% chance one of my contenders will win.
Another, I have only one contender in a 6 horse field, so 16% averaged with 100% gives me a 58% chance of being right.
Works good for me, anyone do anything similiar, or totally different?
CJ