Bad sign for Private Vow?

[OTM Al]

This is from the NY Post, which still does a pretty decent racing coverage, if not much else.....

We downgraded the ranking of Belmont Futurity winner Private Vow on the Dozen list, from fourth to 10th, after a strange conversation yesterday with his trainer, Steve Asmussen, one of the three nominees for the Eclipse Award as top trainer for 2005 to be handed out tonight in Beverly Hills.

Nothing has been seen nor heard of Private Vow since he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 26, and over the phone yesterday Asmussen — normally a personable guy — was quite annoyed when we inquired about the colt, wondering what right we had to ask him.

Hmmm. Let's just say that's not the usual (or proper) response from a trainer when asked about his top Derby prospect. Asmussen said he'd made it clear Private Vow won't race until March, adding the son of Broken Vow hasn't done much over the winter and is currently "galloping" at the Palm Meadows training center in Florida.

Sounds like there's some issue and he may only have two preps at best. Makes me a whole lot less interested.

[TravisVOX]

I don't know what to make of it. I will say that I wouldn't necessarily put a ton of faith in a reporters ability to read people. Private Vow is a serious horse, I think I'll make my judgment on race day when he returns. If he does!

[Wiley]

I am with you OTM Al. Even if he comes back with only two preps to the Derby he needs to be truly sound and exceptional to win it. On the other hand as a play against, hope he wins his two preps big and the press jump on him as the hot horse, ala Bellamy Road, and he gets pounded at the windows and you are lucky enough to find another Giacomo as your play.

I liked him in the Juvenile and he looked solid until his left rein broke! Ugh! How often does that happen. That was a first for me on how to lose a race.

Found this link that says he is going through Arkansas with the Rebel Feb 20th, then the Southwest and Arkansas Derby. Maybe it's old news though.
http://www.privatevow.com/

[OTM Al]

Its the two preps thing that is most troubling. I know one of these days a horse will win the derby on only 2 preps (probably when they all have only run two....) But the Derby is a real test of fitness and I just don't think a very good horse will be fit enough with only 2 preps. It was one of the reasons I applauded Tim Ritchy for squeezing in that sprint race for Alex last year. I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but I won't be buying a futures bet on him this weekend now whereas before he was either 1 or 2 in my rankings (I am still likeing First Samurai as well)