AQUEDUCT 9th - Today

[LaughAndBeMerry]

Any comments on Kaenel's ride on the 2nd fave, the #1 in AQU 9th's today? That was either the best or worst stiff job (depending upon how you look at it). Strangles his horse the entire way to let a 30-1 shot go wire to wire. And oh, the jock happened to "fall off" the fave at the gate in the same race.

No, it's not sour grapes. I don't play the AQU Inn track, I just happened to be flipping past TVG and saw the race. It was so bad, I had to watch the replay on Youbet.

LBM

[46zilzal]

Strangled him? Don't think so...that animal projected, pace-wise, to be 4th or 5th early.....Riders cannot change the way a horse runs that much.also a loose horse effected the run

[PaceAdvantage]

It always amazes me how willing some are to believe races are being fixed on a semi-regular basis, and with choreographed accuracy to boot!

But, then you read about the various movies that were made with horse racing scenes, where certain horses had to finish in certain positions (Seabiscuit, A Bronx Tale, etc.), and you find out how very difficult it is to get a race to finish the way you want without MULTIPLE takes to get it right.....

[46zilzal]

was 5 lengths off an almost 47 half...no where near to being close early. Also last run, a sprint, was run as a sustained/presser: they are NEVER near the front of any sprint let alone a 5.5 furlong one.

[Tom]

"fall off"...you think a rider is going to fall off intentionally??????

[46zilzal]

From the chart:"OUR FRIEND TIMMY chased the pace along the inside, was STEADIED behind a loose horse in the stretch and tired."

[kenwoodallpromos]

http://www.nyra.com/chart/fullchart.asp?chartdate=1/2/2006&track=A
THAT 30-1, whilstone, was leading most of the way in its last race, this race Equibase says the fave stumbled, 2nd fave lost rider, and the "stiff job" was the 3rd fave. Other than those 3 low odds horses, there were 7 others in the race, 6 at 13-1 or higher odds. Of the 4 lowest odds horses, only the riderless horse finished worst than 4th.
So the top tier horses underperformed and Whilstone ran like crazy in 59 and change. Was this also a NW2L?
IMHO I doubt all 4 lowest odds horses screwed up that bad just to allow another to win a cheap race. Racing luck!

[the little guy]

Wait...I thought all the races were fixed.

[PaceAdvantage]

OK, I watched the race again.....I can see where one might get the idea that Kaenel wasn't "giving his all"

But, there were extenuating circumstances, such as a loose horse in front of him, and what looked to be HIS horse getting real close to that inner rail....so who knows....unless you ask him, I guess you can speculate all you want....

[TRM]

I thought this was solid horse at a price. According to my figs he rated a 2/2 early pace and was also 2/2 average early pace. It's true he probably received some help from the headless horseman coming up the rail, but......that's the breaks. I've been on that side of the coin too....Speaking of coin.....and not to redboard, but if you see my picks in the pik4 contest, I did play a win bet and an exacta combo on the 1,3,7,9. But was kicking myself as that was also the tri and the super...... :mad: and I didn't play the pik4 as I normally don't play those only win and exactas.

[cmoore]

That nine at 30-1 was my pick to win. Let me tell you why. According to the Brisnet ultimate pp's. Whilestone ran a 101..105 1st and 2nd quarter last race. He tired late at 6f. Much the best in early speed. Shortening up a half furlong says to me that they are going to run the same fast fractions and hope to hold on. At 30-1..what a gift. I used the one in my exacta. I didn't hit that but hey I'll take the $62.00 payout everday of the week.

The Longshot Specialist:cool:

[LaughAndBeMerry]

Enough with the flames. For those of you that haven't watched the race, watch it. I wasn't sure either until I saw it on replay. HE NEVER rode that horse, and the loose horse wasn't an issue until the final 50 yds.

I'm not saying every race is fixed, but horses get stiffed every day. Watch a replay from MNR, LaD, GG etc and you tell me how a jockey takes a horse 5W into the first turn from the 6 hole. It's amazing how many of them come back to win next time out. I've got a buddy that makes a living betting back what he calls the needlessly wide (with no one inside you) trips.

I remember a tale related to me by a friend a few years back who happened to be a perennial leading trainer at a midwest track. Seemed he had a dispute with a jockey agent over a mount, the agent thinks his jock got screwed and all of a sudden the trainer goes like 0 for his next 20 (he was about 15% overall) with horses he said he knew should have been right there. It seems like everyone of them went 7 wide or lost an iron, or got stuck behind a wall of horses. One day after this 0 for 20 streak, the agent in question comes by his barn and says "OK, so we going to play ball now or what?" The trainer gave in, and lo and behold he went right back to his normal 15% win rate overnight.

[saratoga guy]

The loose horse became a factor well before "the final 50 yards".

It looked to me like Kaenel thought he had plenty of horse and could overtake the 30-1 leader when he wanted to -- unfortunately, the loose horse pulled up outside of him at the top of the lane and then drifted in close to Kaenel's horse before they hit the 1/8th pole.

The loose horse threw too much of a wildcard into that stretch run to blame the jock on the third-place finisher.

[boxcar]

I thought this was solid horse at a price. According to my figs he rated a 2/2 early pace and was also 2/2 average early pace. It's true he probably received some help from the headless horseman coming up the rail, but......that's the breaks. I've been on that side of the coin too....Speaking of coin.....and not to redboard, but if you see my picks in the pik4 contest, I did play a win bet and an exacta combo on the 1,3,7,9. But was kicking myself as that was also the tri and the super...... :mad: and I didn't play the pik4 as I normally don't play those only win and exactas.

He was indeed a "solid" play. Razor sharp and had some great angles in his chart. I posted a little on him over on the Long Shot thread.

Boxcar

[PaceAdvantage]

Enough with the flames.

What flames? Believe me, I know flames, and there were no flames here....

[Doc]

This just sounds to me like sour grapes on the part of Laugh and Be Merry because he didn't cash a ticket in the race...if he's that certain that Kaenel performed a "stiff" job, why doesn't he give the stewards a call and voice his complaint?


Doc

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree. It's not hard to get a steward on the phone....

[Ron]

I wish that they would call these races no contests.

[LaughAndBeMerry]

As I said at the outset, I DIDN"T BET THE RACE. I typically don't play the AQU INN. I was casually watching TVG and saw it, and later on got a call from a friend who is a professional player (who didn't bet it either) telling me to watch the replay.

Since I had no plans to bet the race I didn't handicap it, and can't tell you whether the winner was logical or not. Sitting at home, it sure didn't look to me like Kaenel put forth his best effort. Believe me, as a guy that has seen every race run in N. California this year I've seen my share of feet in the dashboard rides.

[exiles]

You could see Kaanel was stiffing the horse from the 1st quarter on.


WATCH THE REPLAY!!!

[46zilzal]

BASIC TENNANT OF PACE HANDICAPPING: whenever a horse is forced into a pace scenario out of it's ability to adapt, it does not do as well. applied here to the hilt

[boxcar]

BASIC TENNANT OF PACE HANDICAPPING: whenever a horse is forced into a pace scenario out of it's ability to adapt, it does not do as well. applied here to the hilt

Another "basic tennant of pace handicapping": Beware of horses will burn out due to a fast early pace with which they won't be able to cope.

Boxcar

[46zilzal]

that is what I said, phrased slightly differently

[toetoe]

Kaenal stiffing mounts? Santos riding like Kelly Reno on the Black Stallion? What do I do? Sh#t, f@rt, or wind my watch? :confused:

[boxcar]

that is what I said, phrased slightly differently

Oh, okay. I just stated it better. :D

Boxcar

[jotb]

[QUOTE I remember a tale related to me by a friend a few years back who happened to be a perennial leading trainer at a midwest track. Seemed he had a dispute with a jockey agent over a mount, the agent thinks his jock got screwed and all of a sudden the trainer goes like 0 for his next 20 (he was about 15% overall) with horses he said he knew should have been right there. It seems like everyone of them went 7 wide or lost an iron, or got stuck behind a wall of horses. One day after this 0 for 20 streak, the agent in question comes by his barn and says "OK, so we going to play ball now or what?" The trainer gave in, and lo and behold he went right back to his normal 15% win rate overnight.[/QUOTE]

Hello:

I have a hard time with that tale. This had to be a leading jock for sure for me to believe this tale. If a trainer feels in any kind of way that he is not getting 100% from the rider, I can assure you that rider is replaced quickly. Like I said, maybe a leading rider can away with plenty but I've seen them get fired from time to time. Most agents in the industry (90%) put their heads between their legs when it comes to trainers especially when the trainer feels he should have won the race. I highly doubt that agent had the chops to tell the trainer "are you ready to play ball now or what?".

Joe

[NY BRED]

funny, none of the posts note the tremendous positionof the
#8 sevenbellsfor baba, who i needed for the pick4(7 times thank you)
who probably was shut off 3-4 times by the winner due to his
refusal to move to the 2 path..

so, if i had pedro on the horse would i have won?probably not,
and almost certainly been off the board.

regardless of this diversion, remember that while trainers will always take
the win, at many points at least haalf the field in claimers/md sp wts
are in for conditioning and may not be a ready horse for today's race.

purposely placing a horse in the wrong position or running contrary to
the horse's usual position may be a function of unuusally fast or
slow pace,or a "figure"horse not running correctly due to physical
or mental issues with respect to the horse,jockey,trainer
or any possible combination of these parties.

[toetoe]

NY,

Betraying my own bias here, as I hate 7Bells, but I think he appeared in the "Longshot/Form" thread just recently as a bet-against. Now, that does not necessarily apply to yesterday's race, as it's already a new race, and every form-set bears a fresh look. Actually, my hatred for a horse is all too often the kiss of life. :kiss: :D

[GaryG]

What do I do? Sh#t, f@rt, or wind my watch? :confused:Rx: Try playing the races at Randall Park in Cleveland....Then try some medication.

[LaughAndBeMerry]

I've known the trainer (now an ex-trainer he since has left the business) for a long time and I've never known him to be untruthful. Besides, what would be his interest in lying? Anyone who has played the midwest circuit would know who he was as soon as I mentioned his name. I've heard similar stories from an older friend of his who had horses in training in Chicago and Florida with George Getz during the 60's and 70's.

The point I was making is, particularly at the smaller tracks the jocks tend to look out for one another and they can screw you if they feel you've screwed one of their own.