Speed point differential

[finfan]

Hi all,

I have been lurking here for quite a while and have learned much from the various discussions.

Do any pace handicappers here use a Quirin Speed Point differential whether it be + or - from the avg of the race as a starting point to determine possible plays? If so, what would be your minimum differential?

For instance, if a horse' QSP are +/- 3 or more from the avg. of the race, would you consider that a favorable scenario. Additionally do you think a horses current form is more a function of this than other factors?

Thanks for your responses

finfan

[stu]

Let's Expand This Question:

How about the differential with Klein Speed Points?

[Tom]

I like a horse with 6,7,8 QSP and a two point edge.

More imprtantly than speed point totals, I prefer to use speed point percentage.

A SP% of 30 really get my attention.

[GaryG]

When I started using speed points in combination with pace ratings I began to get a much clearer picture of how the race shapes up. You have to do the SPs yourself though.

[Secretariat]

Let's Expand This Question:

How about the differential with Klein Speed Points?

Klein Speed Points...I just ran them through DEL 2003 all races figuring they'd be an improvement on Quirin, especially since DEL tends to early speed.

They weren't an improvement.

1280 attempts
239 winners
18.67 win
0.85 ROI or a 15 cent loss on the dollar.

I think Klein's premise is a good one in how to improve the speed points, but his method hasn't shown it yet. I'll try a few more tracks, but don't bet the rent with them.

[fergie]

Tom, QSP% is a new term for me, would you mind explaining.I understand the points and how they are awarded--just don't remember anything about how a % applies to them.
Thanks
Fergie

[cj]

I'm guessing you total the QSPs all horses in a race, then determine the percentage an individual horse has:

1 3
2 2
3 2
4 2
5 0
6 5
7 6

So here, you have 20 total points, and the 7 has 30%.

[Tom]

Ta-da!

[Dave Schwartz]

My experience is that there is more power in the Q ES Pts if you group races by number of E's, EP's etc.

7-8=E
4-6=EP
1-3=P
0=SP

Now look for races "similar" to today in terms of E's and EP's.


Dave Schwartz

[Tom]

My experience is that there is more power in the Q ES Pts if you group races by number of E's, EP's etc.

7-8=E
4-6=EP
1-3=P
0=SP

Now look for races "similar" to today in terms of E's and EP's.

Dave Schwartz


Not sure what you are getting at here.....

[Dave Schwartz]

The IV for a 7-pt horse in a race with no other 7-pt horses is drastically different than the IV for a 7-pt horse when there are three other such horses.

[fergie]

CJ, Tom, and Dave,
Thanks for the explanations.:)
Fergie

[grahors]

What you are saying is that the race shape helped determine the IV's.
That is great...but..I am not aware of any software that gives the race shape in the PPs?? It would be quite helpful.

[Tom]

Dave - gottcha. a 7 going against a 4-3-3-4-1 is more likely to win than one going against a 8-8-8-7-6-7.

[GMB@BP]

My experience is that there is more power in the Q ES Pts if you group races by number of E's, EP's etc.

7-8=E
4-6=EP
1-3=P
0=SP

Now look for races "similar" to today in terms of E's and EP's.


Dave Schwartz

You got it. I dont think percentage, if that is what Klein suggest is usefull.

[lsbets]

Dave - gottcha. a 7 going against a 4-3-3-4-1 is more likely to win than one going against a 8-8-8-7-6-7.

Exactly Tom - if you have one 8 in a race, and a bunch of 5s, there is a much higher probability that the 8 gets an easy lead and won't tire as much in the stretch compared to a race where you have say, two 8s and two 7s. In the latter race, it is much more likely there will be a speed duel that will wear out the front runners.

[Dave Schwartz]

I am working on a new system of pace pressure. Pretty cool stuff, actually.

It is based (loosely) upon Jim Cramer's running-style definitions (which are excellent) and then takes a nice right-hand twist. I'll tell you more when we release it in book form later this year.

Dave

[finfan]

I have found some hefty longshots when the horse is +/-4 or more pts from the average of the race. It seems that this puts him on the opposite end of the pace pressure that Dave is talking about. Are these sudden form reversals simply a result of this scenario? I think I need to do more research incorporating Jim Cramer's RS Dave referred to.

[GMB@BP]

I have found some hefty longshots when the horse is +/-4 or more pts from the average of the race. It seems that this puts him on the opposite end of the pace pressure that Dave is talking about. Are these sudden form reversals simply a result of this scenario? I think I need to do more research incorporating Jim Cramer's RS Dave referred to.

I look at it this way and these points have serious merit but doesnt it take a bit more handicapping. say we have a EP4 (Mineshaft for example), then we have a E8 (Bellamy Road). Now not talking about who the better horse is, I think its highly unlikely BR gets an easy lead at the pace call, Mineshaft had dominant pace figures and would have been all over an easy lead.

Botton line, if a talented EP horse has superior pace figures then the point advantage is somewhat negated, but still dangerous.

Its when you have a point advantage + top pace figures in the field that you are on a serious potential play.

[xtb]

I think you have to weigh need-to-lead, ability-to-lead and pace-matchups to get a good picture. Unfortunately, just QSP point advantage + superior pace numbers = low odds.

[GMB@BP]

I think you have to weigh need-to-lead, ability-to-lead and pace-matchups to get a good picture. Unfortunately, just QSP point advantage + superior pace numbers = low odds.

I cant disagree more, the public is enamored with beyer speed figures, final figures, and specificaly last race final figures. For example, at Kee this fall meet I had a 6 horse field, in the most speed bias meet in history. It had the following profile

E8, P4, P4, PS1, S0, S0

The E8 horse was middle of the pack speed figures wise, but he was not able to get the lead in his last two races and ran like junk. Using his race three back when he got a clear lead, as the expected senario for today would be, he had the 2nd best beyer and top pace figure!!!

the odds, well the E8 horse was 17/1..........the public just cant get past a bad race, and frankly most dont look at pace pictures or matchups.

This is the extreme example, the type you might find once a week at a circuit, but they do happen. And they happen just the reverse as well.