SA Longshot (Thur 1/19)

[rmania]

Race 1
#4 Girly Girl (8-1 M/L)

[falconridge]

Race 1
#4 Girly Girl (8-1 M/L)I'm inclined toward this one myself, rman. Any thoughts on why the 6 (Blue Orchid) is getting such heavy early action (was favored until the last couple clicks; showed up at 8-5 when I tuned in 30 minutes before post time)?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Where did it finish?

[falconridge]

Any thoughts on why the 6 (Blue Orchid) is getting such heavy early action?Abundantly clear--now! Many lengths the best, despite tons of trouble. I might have pulled the trigger on this one, but 2-1 on a filly that debuted at 52-1--and finished up the track--made me keep my gun holstered.

[rmania]

.... I might have pulled the trigger on this one, but 2-1 on a filly that debuted at 52-1--and finished up the track--made me keep my gun holstered.
According to the racing form, Blue Orchid had a horrendous start in her debut. Her head was turned and she dwelt.

By the time she reached the half-mile pole the leaders were already in the turn.

She managed to make up nine lengths over the next half-mile but still finished “up the track”.

Now, have you ever watched video replays of a race? I’m sure you have.

Have you ever wondered what it would be like if you could isolate horses in video replays, cut the video, and paste it in a new video thus creating something that would look like “today’s” race.

Well, that’s basically what I do except it’s done with life-like animation.

With that said, Blue Orchid (even with the bad start last time out) finished 3rd – 3 ½ lengths back when matched against today’s field.

So, a better start and a little more experience under her belt and she is qualified contender.

[falconridge]

Clearly, there's no substitute for seeing the race and, whenever possible, reviewing said race to isolate trips that might have compromised a horse's chances of winning. That said--even without benefit of seeing Blue Orchid's debut or checking the replay--I thought Darrell Vienna's charge had every right to win yesterday's S.A. opener. My problem was, I wasn't getting anywhere near the price I thought I deserved. That I noticed she was getting pounded in the mutuels testifies to the connections' (and any number of other sharp-eyed horseplayers') conviction that B.O.'s debut was, as I had strongly suspected, a much-better-than-looked effort--and that I was just a bit too persnickety about demanding more munificent odds.

Keep up the great work, rman, and thanks for the thoughtful and thorough response.

Best,

falconridge

[kenwoodallpromos]

Did the starter goof with the heavily bet down horses not ready?