Contender selection

[dav4463]

If you confine plays to those horses that go off at 4-1 or higher this method has some merit. It might seem too simple, but give it a try.....

Class: Circle the top three horses in the race who have faced the toughest competition. Use the track and purse level to determine which three have faced the toughest competition.

Pace: Except for turf routes, circle the three horses who have the best early speed. Use the position, most 1's and 2's, maybe 3's at first and second call get the circles. For turf routes, circle the three horses with the best late kick.

Connections: Circle the top three trainer/jockey combinations

Speed: Use the Beyers or other speed figures, circle the top three best overall speed horses. Two of them should be based on recent speed, save a spot for a "back speed" horse if his old races are better than the top recent speed figures.

Any horse that fits in the top three of two categories or more is a contender, provided that the odds are 4-1 or higher.

give it a shot, let me know what you think.......

[Overlay]

I used to experiment with something very similar, where I would have a number of handicapping categories like the ones you suggested, and develop an overall consensus based on the top three horses in each category, like the Form does with its multiple handicappers at each track. I very seldom got the odds you mentioned that way, though, and I also had trouble with weighting the categories properly. I did better when I started ranking every horse in a field, and using hard, demonstrated probabilities associated with the various categories and ranks, rather than treating each category equally, or trying to weight the categories based just on estimation or experience.

[twindouble]

If you confine plays to those horses that go off at 4-1 or higher this method has some merit. It might seem too simple, but give it a try.....

Class: Circle the top three horses in the race who have faced the toughest competition. Use the track and purse level to determine which three have faced the toughest competition.

Pace: Except for turf routes, circle the three horses who have the best early speed. Use the position, most 1's and 2's, maybe 3's at first and second call get the circles. For turf routes, circle the three horses with the best late kick.

Connections: Circle the top three trainer/jockey combinations

Speed: Use the Beyers or other speed figures, circle the top three best overall speed horses. Two of them should be based on recent speed, save a spot for a "back speed" horse if his old races are better than the top recent speed figures.

Any horse that fits in the top three of two categories or more is a contender, provided that the odds are 4-1 or higher.

give it a shot, let me know what you think.......


I'm looking at a lot circles here because I added a few more factors, now I have to go back and remember why I circled them.:confused: , so I underlined and made a note on the side, then I put stars on the horse to denote the number of factors qualified, then I took a red pen circle and X in the middle on the ones that fit the top three of two or more categories. Checked the early scratches, two got scratched, two jock changes, b off one, b on two of them. With the speed and pace horses scratched, I started all over again, with different color markers, now I had to remember what the colors meant so I made note. :confused: Anyway, When I was done it looked so nice, I decided to frame it. :) :cool:

T.D.

[rmania]

Cool little method....

Now, if you’ve ever ventured over to the “dark side” (Selections Forum) you would have noticed that I post contender after contender after contender and almost all with a morning line of 10-1 or higher.
And, in the amount of time it would take to draw circles for one horse I’ve completed handicapping the entire race.

Now that’s a cool method. :cool:

[dav4463]

I actually developed this little method to help a friend out who is really just learning handicapping. Something not too in-depth, but certainly better than following a selectors picks or throwing darts. Day before yesterday he caught a 22-1 shot at Turf Paradise and a 13-1 at Portland ! I told him it was beginner's luck, but he really did pick the horses based on each having two circles.