beyer speed figures and beyer speed par

[jagerfury]

as i continue my advanced studies into the sport of kings, i still don't have a firm understanding of how to look at a given horse's past performance and figure whether the horse will be suited to the typical speed demands of the day's race. i believe i have two pieces of information available from the DRF; the horse's various beyer speed figures and the following and speed rating/track varient. i'm also assuming i'm only looking at the pp which are for the same distance as the days race.

how do i tell whether the horse has been running close to or on par for today's distance?

thanks in advance for any and all help.

[cj]

Simulcast Weekly lists pars for many tracks by class.

[jagerfury]

thanks for the tip cj. i do have some reference material on track pars according to class/conditions. i'm just not solid on the speed/track varient on the drf pp's and how that adjusts the corresponding bolded beyer speed figure.

[xfile]

as i continue my advanced studies into the sport of kings, i still don't have a firm understanding of how to look at a given horse's past performance and figure whether the horse will be suited to the typical speed demands of the day's race. i believe i have two pieces of information available from the DRF; the horse's various beyer speed figures and the following and speed rating/track varient. i'm also assuming i'm only looking at the pp which are for the same distance as the days race.

how do i tell whether the horse has been running close to or on par for today's distance?

thanks in advance for any and all help.

You need to read "Speed to Spare"
http://store.drf.com/acb/showdetl.cfm?&DID=7&Product_ID=1660&CATID=18&objectgroup_ID=460

[cj]

thanks for the tip cj. i do have some reference material on track pars according to class/conditions. i'm just not solid on the speed/track varient on the drf pp's and how that adjusts the corresponding bolded beyer speed figure.

The Beyer and the DRF SF/TV are not related at all. To get the variant for the Beyer, you have to dig it out yourself.

[rastajenk]

i'm also assuming i'm only looking at the pp which are for the same distance as the days race.


I wouldn't make this assumption.

[Tom]

One would think that after all these years of publishing Beyers, DRF would break down and put the pars for the various races in the form itself. With their huge DB, it would be such a simple thing to do. they could even list them in the entries. They are hit and miss putting them in SW, and never put in FM pars, 3yo pars, etc.

It's like renting a semi to bring your groceries home from the store.

Actually, DRF doens't do much at all with that huge DB - maybe they should hire someone who understands computers who could do a little research for them. They could offer so much right now, where they offer so little. One good researched stat would be much more valuable to handicappers than 100 of those little puff pieces they pawn off as handicapping articles. Or replace the worthless opinion pieces by Crist with some actual information every Sunday.

*sigh* DRF, ya coulda been a conteda! :(

[cj]

Tom, ssshhhh, lets keep things as is! Definitely not in the DRF.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I would give every horse an extra BSF point for every 2 DRF variant points over 10; and I would give every loser 1/2 point for every finish 2 lengths behind.
PM me if you want to know why.

[classhandicapper]

I think they don't like to publish 2YO/3YO and some other pars because they fluctuate as the horses develop. Some of the samples tend to be on the small side.

I've actually been inquiring about purchasing some national BEYER PAR information and it was apparent from the conversation that they didn't have the information handy. They would have to write a program to calculate it and that made it a bit too expensive for a single purchaser.

I know for certain they have a database of information with some of the PARs and software that checks horses figures as they move from circuit to circuit to make sure the circuits remain in sync, but it seems as though they aren't using it to its full ability despite having some pretty sharp horseplayers there.

[headhawg]

Tom, ssshhhh, lets keep things as is! Definitely not in the DRF.
I coudn't have said it better. I used to make a killing on turf races and a milder profit on off-tracks using Dan Serra's numbers before Cramer wrote about the Tomlinson's. Then DRF started publishing them and the prices just aren't there anymore.

It used to be a like stealing to see a field full of Mdn first turfers with good dirt form and bad turf breeding.

[rastajenk]

I think they don't like to publish 2YO/3YO and some other pars because they fluctuate as the horses develop. Some of the samples tend to be on the small side.


I don't know about that. Maybe for some of the year-round tracks that could be true, but for most tracks that have a 6-week, or three- or four-month meet on the same place on the calendar year after year, I don't think you see much change from the start of the meet to the end, or from year to year. In fact, those categories might be among the most consistent from meet to meet.

[mcikey01]

as i continue my advanced studies into the sport of kings, i still don't have a firm understanding of how to look at a given horse's past performance and figure whether the horse will be suited to the typical speed demands of the day's race. i believe i have two pieces of information available from the DRF; the horse's various beyer speed figures and the following and speed rating/track varient. i'm also assuming i'm only looking at the pp which are for the same distance as the days race.

how do i tell whether the horse has been running close to or on par for today's distance?



jagerfury,





In a recent post, on another thread, I mentioned the following link which details Marc Cramer's take on Beyer Speed Figs and possible use as an elimination factor... http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...7810#post207810 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=207810#post207810)


( PA: The following was the correct link to Cramer's article but it is no longer operational: http://www.gambleinparadise.com/articlex14.html (http://www.gambleinparadise.com/articlex14.html) )

[jagerfury]

thanks for the influx of information guys. i got to hand it to this site, you put out a question you get enough information and leads to solid sources that the research time alone will keep me off the tracks for another couple of weeks. hmm... probably what all you seasoned rail birds want actually. no, in all seriousness one of the members told me to spend some time here and i'd get some pretty solid stuff. he was right!

[classhandicapper]

I don't know about that. Maybe for some of the year-round tracks that could be true, but for most tracks that have a 6-week, or three- or four-month meet on the same place on the calendar year after year, I don't think you see much change from the start of the meet to the end, or from year to year. In fact, those categories might be among the most consistent from meet to meet.

My own researach suggests that the younger horses develop somewhere between 1 and 1.5 Beyer points per month, but the movement in the Class PAR can be much lower or equal to that depending on the actual class.

[michiken]

In my humble opinion, Beyers or other speed figures are just the tip of the iceberg. I suggest that you learn more about pace handicapping.

A 'Speed' figure is just a snapshot in time of a dynamically moving object. This figure does not tell you whether the horse was running evenly, gaining ground (No Bataglia jokes please) or gasping for air just to finish................ Speed figures can be affected by many variables such as horses running style, the preponderance of many early runners or the lack of finish ability.

In general, I like to see a horse exhibit the following:

For races 5 furlongs and shorter:

I like a good 2f pace figure with a high energy distribution. It helps if a horse can go balls out because the race is short.

For most sprints between 5 1/2 to 6 furlongs:

I do not like horses stretching out from those 4 1/2 and 5 furlong races. The energy distribution always leads to an over-rated speed figure which never seems to extrapolate to longer distances.

I like to estimate the early pace scenario to try and predict the quitters. For early speed types, once they get passed, they seem to pack it in for the day. This is why I think E types have volatile speed ratings.

For most sprints from 6 1/2 to 7 furlongs:

I always like to see acceleration whether it be on the turn or in the stretch. This indicates gas in the tank and a good jock will know when to pull the trigger.

I like to include late runners with good final fractions underneath in the exotics. These are the ones that run past the fading early speed.

I LOVE horses cutting back from routes (see my other posts on this forum)!

For Route Races:

I like to see horses that have proven themselves as routers because of their stamina. Beware that sprinter who had the high Beyer if he is stretching out from a short distance especially at cheap tracks like Mountaineer and Hoosier.

Again, I like to see acceleration combined with a little tactical speed.

To learn more about pace, CJ's free perfomance figures can help clue you in. He has an excellent explaination on his site with examples.

I also have ideas for using acceleration and deceleration in your pace analysis. If you PM me, I can give you a link to my beta site which has some examples and food for thought in my forum.

You might also enjoy reading some of the articles on the Allways Site (http://www.frandsen.com/news.htm)

[toetoe]

No, jager. We want your money. :D
Once, my friend bet early, came back to his seat and lamented the early action his horse was getting. I tried to console him, saying, "Don't worry, that's stupid money. He'll come way up." :D