Toetoe's Bet-Againsts

[toetoe]

Aqeduct, Jan. 16:

Race 6: Tommasi, @5/2, is way underlaid, but still possible to win.

Race 7: Comacina is in DEEP, @ 3/1 in a tough, tough field. She'll get a perfect inside trip and STILL lose.

[rokitman]

2 for 2! Nice work.

A "Loser Avoidance" strategy is a key to winning, for me. And it is woefully neglected in most circles, as I'm sure you know.

I think of it in terms of "The Bad 50." If a catergory of plays has a 15% win rate, if I can segment "The Bad 50," that is, the 50 races out of a 100 that will win 5 out of 50, instead of the 7.5 that it "should," that leaves me with 10 winners in the remaining 50 races. A 20% win rate, and most importantly, a 33% increase in ROI! A huge difference for just reducing 7.5 winners to 5 in "The Bad 50." And very realistic to do. I helluva lot more realistic than consistently and continously outplaying the public to a degree that boosts your results enough to matter. Addition by subtraction, if you will.