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Cesario!
01-15-2006, 01:12 PM
Does anyone have any novel approaches to measuring a horse's current form?

I'm interested in concepts determining when a horse may go "off" form (has won several races in a row and is about to plunge) or when a horse may make a sudden form reversal. Most casual bettors seem to be able to see improving form, but profits can be made from the overlays created by the horse which has peaked and will (most likely) not run to that level today.

Thanks!

Seth

boxcar
01-15-2006, 01:33 PM
Does anyone have any novel approaches to measuring a horse's current form?

I'm interested in concepts determining when a horse may go "off" form (has won several races in a row and is about to plunge) or when a horse may make a sudden form reversal. Most casual bettors seem to be able to see improving form, but profits can be made from the overlays created by the horse which has peaked and will (most likely) not run to that level today.

Thanks!

Seth

You've asked a mouthful! I could write a book on this subject.

Boxcar

twindouble
01-15-2006, 01:38 PM
You've asked a mouthful! I could write a book on this subject.

Boxcar

Well?? I would expect no less of you, get on it!:cool:

46zilzal
01-15-2006, 01:42 PM
I have found that when horse's show a progressive inability to apportion their run throughout the race, (they are getting earlier by % early or % median provided NO SIGNIFICANT TROUBLE was encountered) over a three race period, they are ready for a significant decline in form. The crowd OFTEN makes this type FAVORITES much to their chagrin.

You see this pattern over and over and is shown for the big favorite SLIDER in the 2nd race at Tampa on Jan 10th....

Cesario!
01-15-2006, 02:00 PM
You've asked a mouthful! I could write a book on this subject.

Boxcar

I've come across your postings on previous threads, and I tend to agree with many of your conclusoins. I'd love any insights you'd like to share!

Cesario!
01-15-2006, 02:01 PM
I have found that when horse's show a progressive inability to apportion their run throughout the race, (they are getting earlier by % early or % median provided NO SIGNIFICANT TROUBLE was encountered) over a three race period, they are ready for a significant decline in form. The crowd OFTEN makes this type FAVORITES much to their chagrin.

You see this pattern over and over and is shown for the big favorite SLIDER in the 2nd race at Tampa on Jan 10th....


Fascinating. Is that simply a "percent energy distribution" calculation? Do you use a particular software package?

46zilzal
01-15-2006, 02:12 PM
Sartin programs that base racing "energy" (sum of the velocities of three fractional periods) and then noting what energy distribution (% early is a relationship between 2nd call and final fraction) that horse ran the race.

USUALLY horse's jump all over the place within a range typical for them (% median wise) based upon their reaction to that race's pace, but when there is a steady increase in % median (and it is a SURE THING when accompanied by three lines of total energy going down) one really has to question what they will do today.

Two Sartin support groups can be found at www.yahoogroups.com under Sartin Alums or V/DC Messenger

Cesario!
01-15-2006, 02:24 PM
I'm familiar with some Sartin concepts from Brohamer's Book. Thanks for the links.

It's interesting -- I've never put much stock in simply converting numbers (e.g. fps). But, I do find the energy distribution numbers slightly more hopeful than the others. My best monthly totals came during a month when I was really seeing horses as "tanks of energy" and subtracting items that could deplete this energy. For some reason, I left that concept and flirted with class for a while, but I think it's time to retun.

Another note: When I take the time to do the calculations by hand, my handicapping is more precise -- more so than using a program. It's kind of like, back in middle school, when you use to copy notes from an overhead. The process causes you to focus more on the data than simply looking it over.

cato
01-15-2006, 02:24 PM
46--

I was wondering how many tracks you look at a day when using the Val (or other Sartin related program)?

It seems to me that the number woudl be limited (which is not a bad thing!) to allow one to pick up on all of the nuances you see.

Just curious, Cato

46zilzal
01-15-2006, 02:29 PM
TWO per day but there is a pre-analysis screen that allows me to pick this up almost automatically.

Here is another from Aqueduct on Jan 2nd I believe in the nightcap

finale at the Big A SEVEN BELLSFORBARBARA going off 3/1 with Eibar Coa

last three lines
total median %
162.02 69.9
164.60 69.6
166.27 68.6

This one finished OUT

46zilzal
01-15-2006, 02:42 PM
The most encouraging thing about using energy distribution is finding TRUE, repeating BIAS. After TESTING these programs at 30 or more tracks I have found FOUR that have such strong biases for weeks on end, that looking at one or two factors is all one has to do to be at the cashiers window.

It is astounding.

xfile
01-15-2006, 02:57 PM
A thread on FORM i had a while ago.....might help:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=21891

toetoe
01-15-2006, 05:11 PM
46,

7Bells' form should be read from bottom up, correct? Decreasing totals, increasing earlies, or what ever those %'s represent? :ThmbUp:

Tom
01-15-2006, 06:30 PM
Our good friend Dave Schwartz offered up a very in depth look at pace a yar or so ago - do a search on form in posts by him and you will have some good reading.

46zilzal
01-15-2006, 08:10 PM
MOST recent on top then they go back in history...The % median is much akin to % early

toetoe
01-15-2006, 09:40 PM
That's what I meant. :ThmbUp:

boxcar
01-15-2006, 11:17 PM
What follows is a brief explanation of why the 3 horse in the 10th at TAM on 1/10 was such a threat on the basis of her current form. Formally Jay had a principle I called the “ultimate form indicator” (UFI) in her chart. To qualify on this principle, a horse had to have a Form angle coupled with a LR.SR that was equal to or better than his previous race’s SR.

In FJ’s case, she had what I called the Form-Consistency (or F angle for short) in her chart. In order to qualify on his angle, a horse had to have finished in the money in at least three out of its last four races – with the race that forms the basis to the angle being of relatively recent date. FJ had an IMF in her last thee races, thereby qualifying perfectly. (The race that formed the basis to her F angle was the 3RB which she ran back on 21Sep05.)

The second part of the angle is a little trickier to evaluate because we must be sure that the horse’s LR was not an overtaxing effort. In cases when the LR was an OMF, we can be reasonably certain that such a race would not be detrimental to his performance today. But whenever a horse had a LR.IMF, then we must closely examine the manner in which the race was run to determine the “duration of pressure” the horse was under during that race. In FJ’s case, it appears that she could have been given a stiff workout for a ½ mi., then allowed to lose ground from the ½ mi. marker to the finish line (FL). As you can see, she was heads apart for a half, then lost ground steadily to finish 6 lengths behind the winner – all the while the jock managed to “save” her to garner place money, which is still important money to a stable.

Therefore, since that LR probably helped her condition from which we can reasonably expect further improvement out of her today, and her LR.SR was 4 points higher than her 2RB.SR (at least according to TSN’s speed figs), she represented a real threat today on the basis of her good current form. There was absolutely nothing in her current chart to suggest that she didn’t deserve favored status. Her only “vulnerability” came from outside her chart vis-à-vis the maiden method play of Cohiba’s Wildchild.

It’s very important to understand how a favorite can be vulnerable or even false on the basis of its own chart content, and how a favorite can be vulnerable on the basis of another horse’s chart contents. For the most part, in the first scenario, the favorite becomes much safer to bet against. While in the latter, it would be prudent to somehow include the fav in your exotic wagering. This is precisely what I would have done in this scenario because implicit in all this was that CW was really a vulnerable long shot – not a false one.

This race, therefore, offered up a vulnerable favorite and an equally vulnerable long shot. Such is the beauty of good racing angles; for the angles allow an experienced player to see these kinds of things.

Now, I pointed out this kind of form horse because often they’re quite dangerous. And I was partial to betting these types. But these UFI types didn’t always make good for one reason or another. They didn’t always live up to expectations. And as any serious and experienced student of Form will tell you, all form players suffer from the “jumping the gun” syndrome, i.e. getting on a horse one race too soon – which is precisely the opposite of mediocre players who usually get on their form horses one race too late.

In my long shot thread, I will show you when to bet a beaten UFI horse from another recent race, which is why I wanted to explain what a UFI horse is all about in this thread.

Boxcar

toetoe
01-16-2006, 01:18 AM
Thanks for trying to articulate this stuff, BC. Not easy to do. I'm flattered, because I'm notorious for getting aboard a race too soon. You say that's the mark of a good form boy, if an impatient one.

boxcar
01-16-2006, 02:23 AM
Thanks for trying to articulate this stuff, BC. Not easy to do. I'm flattered, because I'm notorious for getting aboard a race too soon. You say that's the mark of a good form boy, if an impatient one.

I don't think "impatience", to any great degree, enters into this phenomenon. With some form cycles, it's just as reasonable to go with them on either end. I've made good innumerable times on UFI horses, and have failed on about as many! Over the years, though, I came to favor the beaten UFIs -- simply because the winners tend to pay more. The better prices probably can be attributed to the lower SR in the LR. The public probably thinks such horses are tailing off, when in fact, they're ready to run big today.

One little experience I'll never forget happened many years ago when Hialeah was still running. At the time, I knew some "degenerate gambler" types, and sometimes they would hound me for selections. One day, this one character asked me if anything good was going that day, and I really liked this particular horse in some cheapie claiming race. The horse's ML was 20--1. He was sent off that day around that -- maybe a little longer. But I warned my friend beforehand that if the horse didn't score that day to keep an eye out for his next start. In essence, I told him that I could be on him one race too soon.

Well, sure enough, as it turned out, the pony lost. Ran well up the track. A few weeks later, though, he was once again entered into another race. I actually went out of my way to call my "friend" up to give him a heads up on the horse because I always felt badly if one of my selections I gave out didn't make good. What did I get for my effort? Nothing but insults and sarcasm from the guy. He said he wouldn't bet the nag with Chinese money...yada, yada, yada. Results: I went out of my way to get to the track to bet him. He won and paid over $85.00.

Needless to say, my "buddy" was quite sheepish afterwards when he saw the results in the paper. But I never gave him another horse after that.

Boxcar

twindouble
01-16-2006, 08:03 AM
Needless to say, my "buddy" was quite sheepish afterwards when he saw the results in the paper. But I never gave him another horse after that. Quote;

Boxcar

liked what you said, " A race to soon." Form cycles are tough to nail down to begin with but I agree there has to be more than one factor involved, on the other hand your buddy was basically right not to chase horses even though his comment was uncalled for. I made it a point not to hang with gamblers that felt the need to compete with me, sure we ribbed one another in fun but just tell me why you like the horse, give me something to chew on now or when the horse runs again, as a result you don't let many get by you. What a lot players don't understand or want to as a result of their big egos is, get two or three good handicappers collaborating it's unbeatable.

Good luck, good reading Boxcar. Your retired, I've got some handicapping to do.

T.D.

boxcar
01-16-2006, 11:06 AM
Actually, TD, none of my gambling friends were horse players! They were all young guys who loved to gamble on other sports, such as basketball, football, baseball. A couple, however, were bow-wow players, and another virtually lived at jai alai frontons. All of them, save for one, were wannabe "wiseguys" who dreamed the pipe dream of living on easy street through their gambling activitites. None of them competed with me at the track. I think that boorish guy's problem, though, was that he was jealous of my success, as he knew quite a bit about me because we had a good mutual friend. He just took the opportunity to rub my nose in it, but in the end I had the last laugh -- all the way to the bank. :)

Regarding form cycles, you're quite right: There's a lot more to them than just speed ratings. Generally speaking, the big key to my using them was coupling them with performance angles. I'm going to demonstrate this soon with two horses in one race over on the long shot thread.


Boxcar

classhandicapper
01-17-2006, 12:38 PM
Do the Sartin users adjust their ratings for the track speed, runnup, wind etc...

46zilzal
01-17-2006, 12:53 PM
Do the Sartin users adjust their ratings for the track speed, runnup, wind etc...
No

toetoe
01-17-2006, 03:13 PM
boxcar,

Can *I* be your mutuel friend? :kiss:

classhandicapper
01-17-2006, 04:19 PM
No

I would have a tough time trusting pace comparisons without the benefit of a track variant and run up information.

I've always considered the Sartin methdology to be very promising in terms of measuring performance (even though I don't know all that much). I never went in that direction because my initial thoughts and methods were more closely in sync with CJ's excellent work.

I can't help but think that using a track variant in combination with the Sartin figures would be a huge move forward. I'm shocked large numbers of people haven't moved in that direction on their own.

46zilzal
01-17-2006, 04:26 PM
I would have a tough time trusting pace comparisons without the benefit of a track variant and run up information.

I've always considered the Sartin methdology to be very promising in terms of measuring performance (even though I don't know all that much).
you asked about OTHER things: run up. wind. The track variants are there with each line equalized. By charting the early/late balance (a calculation in the software) one has a good handle on track speed.

classhandicapper
01-18-2006, 06:00 PM
you asked about OTHER things: run up. wind. The track variants are there with each line equalized. By charting the early/late balance (a calculation in the software) one has a good handle on track speed.

I'm not sure I understand where the track variant is coming from.

delayjf
01-19-2006, 10:36 PM
I know some here don't cotton to Joe Takash because he is very opinionated, but I did subscribe to his newletter a while back and in one way that he was deadly accurate was predicting when a winning horse was about to go off form. By observing their behavior after a race and noting if the horse was blowing hard and leaving the winners circle looking tired ie walking flat footed with his head down, Joe's was able to accurately predict that this horse was going to need a rest. If that horse was entered in the near future, it almost always ran badly.

If you can take the time to learn to recogize a tired spent horse from one that may have benefitted from the race, you will be able to predict when these winners are about to hit the wall.

toetoe
01-19-2006, 10:51 PM
Good point about Joe. I wonder whether others were turned off, as I was, by his feeling of infallibility. He would say a horse was hitting himself, the trainer's killing him, blah blah blah ... then when the horse won a stakes, no humility. Everything was etched in stone, Joe's Ten Commandments. I gave up on him too soon, but it's human nature to dismiss that kind of hubris.

delayjf
01-20-2006, 07:23 PM
Critiqing other peoples animals in print can piss a lot of guys off. I don't think it was Joe, but I seem to recall on guy who said some bad things about a horse trained by Laura Pinnelli down at DeL Mar one year, she actually attacked him. The whole thing went in front of the stewards. I know Joe had words with Cory Black after Joe critized him for not properly warming up horses before the race. From what I can tell, he's not well liked on the backstretch.

BUT!!! That does not diminish the value of his post race observations. They were spot on.

toetoe
01-20-2006, 07:49 PM
Delay,

That just lit a bulb over my head. Takach should be used for post-race analysis, and maybe not to "beat the beam," as in warmups and such.

delayjf
01-24-2006, 08:56 PM
The thing that I learned most from Joes Newsletters and personal observation is to note the change in a horses disposition. Some horses will produce a good effort even when demostrating negitive signs, the trick is to know when what your seeing is normal for the horse in question. I've seen horses who were favored show up dripping wet and run up the track and then return two weeks later dry as a bone and win at a good price.

You have to also weigh what you see with common sense. IE if a horse comes back from a race blowing hard and looking spent, you have to consider where the animal is in his form cycle. If he's coming off a layoff, there's a chance that he will benefit from the work. If he's been in good form perhaps winning some recent races and exiting the winner circle on his toes looking like he wants more and now leaves the track with his head down walking flat, that would be a very negitive sign in my opinion.

JackS
01-24-2006, 11:12 PM
Never 100% sure but if you notice anything unusual about the last race or the last race and the 2nd race back, this might lead a person in the right direction concerning fitness and current form.
An example I've noticed more than once is the horse that was eased in its last race an is returning to the races within a couple of weeks or less.
Trying to be reasonable and judge this horse as "OK" on fitness leaves only form in question.
If this horse appeared as a good bet in the race he was eased, he may be even a better bet today since the public is probably going to be a little gun shy backing this horse and also for those who did play this horse last time, backing him again.
For me "form" is often associated with strangeness-i.e, a router who had a quick pop from the gate in a sprint then faded and is returning to route today. A speedball sprinter who can never seem to last to the wire all of a sudden becomes a closer regardless of his finish.
I'm sure everyone here can think of or remember a very strange line on a horse but failed to capitalize. We often become aware only after the race has run and since it usually doesn't make much sence, we pass it off as just another unfigureable race.
Awareness of these odd lines before the race could be profitable so stay aware..

mainardi
01-25-2006, 12:10 AM
The subject of "form" so often focuses on recent form, that lost in the numbers is "old time handicapping". I think that boxcar might agree that longshots are "hidden" from handicappers that zoom in on recent form, while totally ingnoring recurring form. No matter whether you "crunch the numbers" using software (as I do) or by hand, you still have to look at the horse's entire body of work.

I can't even count the number of times where two horses have been pointed out to be top contenders, and the horse with recent form gets beaten (at lower odds) by a nice-price horse that rounded back into form. That's just fine by me!!! ;)

Easy game... right? :cool:

highnote
01-25-2006, 02:44 AM
Does anyone have any novel approaches to measuring a horse's current form?

I'm interested in concepts determining when a horse may go "off" form (has won several races in a row and is about to plunge) or when a horse may make a sudden form reversal. Most casual bettors seem to be able to see improving form, but profits can be made from the overlays created by the horse which has peaked and will (most likely) not run to that level today.

Thanks!

Seth

Seth,
You might want to read Cary Fotias' book "Blinkers Off -- New Frontiers in Form Cycle Analysis". Fotias makes pace and speed figures that are velocity based.

46zilzal has pointed out an interesting way to use velocity based Median Energy as a sign of pending declining form. I'm not sure if this would apply to both dirt and turf racing. Although, on dirt, I'm sure it works well.

Fotias has a method for dirt racing called "Double Top". A Double Top is when a horse earns a NEW PACE TOP(TM) and "New Final Time Top" where the Final Time Top is two points or more higher than it's previous Final Time Figure. (*Note the exception below.)

What happens when a horse runs a lifetime best both fast early and fast late? This lifetime best effort can knock it off form. The horse needs time to recover.

On the other hand, a NEW PACE TOP alone is a signal of improving form when the final time figure remains the same or decreases. This means the horse is getting fitter by running faster earlier in the race.

Pace in turf racing is different than in dirt racing. A declining pace figure with a final time figure that remains the same or decreases slightly is actually a good sign of improving form, too, in turf races. Fotias calls this a TURF DECLINE LINE (TM).

Horses generally run slow in the early part of the race and then sprint to the wire in turf races -- as opposed to dirt races where the horses run early and then decelerate to the wire. The TURF DECLINE LINE is a sign of a horse rounding into form on turf because it is able to finish faster.

* When young developing horses earn a NEW PACE TOP and New Final Top, but earn a final figure that is relatively low, this can actually be a good sign.

"Blinkers Off" has a lot more advice for evaluating form cycles using velocity based speed and pace figures.

Hope this helps.

John