Would You Claim This Horse?

[speedking]

Draw Play is running in the 3rd race at Aqu Sunday. He ran big numbers for Dutrow at $35,000 level, had some time off and was ultimately dropped to the 16K level where he still could not win. Was claimed for $16,000 by Lake, who could not get this gelding to the winners circle either and ended up dropping him to $7500 where he was claimed by Michael Brice while running another poor number. Why would anybody jump in and claim these type horses?

speedking

[toetoe]

No.

[facorsig]

Not only did Draw Play fool Brice, but Draw Play has been fooling the public, too. In his last ten starts, he has been a favorite eight times, losing six while cascading down the claiming ladder. He was 2:1 in both efforts where he was claimed at higher levels and 5:1 in the most recent effort where he was claimed. I am surprised how often I see horses at odds higher than 5:1 claimed, so I am not sure this claim is particularly bad. It's not like someone is claiming a 20:1 shot! Sunday's entry is in the ubiqituous starter handicap level. One thing that Draw Play would have going for him is eligibility in Starter Allowance or Handicap races.

[GlenninOhio]

Not only did Draw Play fool Brice, but Draw Play has been fooling the public, too. In his last ten starts, he has been a favorite eight times, losing six while cascading down the claiming ladder. He was 2:1 in both efforts where he was claimed at higher levels and 5:1 in the most recent effort where he was claimed. I am surprised how often I see horses at odds higher than 5:1 claimed, so I am not sure this claim is particularly bad. It's not like someone is claiming a 20:1 shot! Sunday's entry is in the ubiqituous starter handicap level. One thing that Draw Play would have going for him is eligibility in Starter Allowance or Handicap races.

Yes, you do look "bad" when you claim a long shot that performs consistent with their odds, but one thing I've noticed on occasion is the horse who wins at 10-1 or more and is claimed. Perhaps lucky, perhaps inside information, perhaps extremely sharp claiming trainer.

In my opinion, the most foolish claim is the "obvious" low odds horse who runs poorly, as the trainer is showing no more savvy than the betting public. It's actually worse, because the bettors don't end up with a horse on their hands. Of course, it is often the new owner who had pushed the trainer to buy that horse.

[Ron]

Scratch...

[Valuist]

I don't have Aqu pps for today but isn't this a real old horse? I'd never claim a horse older than 4, and with its allowance conditions used up. Toss in the fact its Dutrow, there's no way in hell you can move him up and he likely will regress sharply. But I don't have Gill or Calabrese's money. Those are the kinds of owners who claim horses like Draw Play.

[speedking]

Draw Play is a 7yo gelding with only 30 starts. Was stakes placed in 2001-02, second in the Tremont and Riva Ridge. My point was that Drugtrow could no longer win with him and dumped him for 16 grand to Lake, who quickly gave up and looked to give him away for $7500. If the medicine men could not do anything with him, why would someone take a chance on damaged goods and hope to improve him. Maybe just to fill an empty stall and collect the day rate? No surprize he was scratched.

Speedking