x13 model 01/06

[formula_2002]

must be favorite in a min field size of 9
500 out of sample results:
3% win pool loss
2% show pool profit
even in the show pool.



date post TRACK race pgno H
106 1:31) LRL 3 8 NIGHT
106 3:48) AQU 8 9 SPENNY
106 4:26) LRL 9 5 DEVIL
106 5:56) TPX 2 1 MINNES
106 6:22) TPX 3 9 NATONE
106 6:48) TPX 4 8 MY KIN
106 9:18) CTX 8 6 FULLAN
106 9:42) CTX 9 2 MATUKO

[formula_2002]

4 PLAYS
2 WINS , FOR A NET -$1.00 (-44 CENTS, REBATE ADJUSTED)
3 PLACES , BREAK EVEN (+44 CENTS, REBATE ADJUSTED)
3 SHOWS, -$1.40

5.8% DOLLAR LOSS.

CTX 9TH RACE SCRATCH BROUGHT IN A WINNER

ALL SHOW MUTUALS WERE @ 2.20.. NO REBATES

[formula_2002]

4 PLAYS
2 WINS , FOR A NET -$1.00 (-44 CENTS, REBATE ADJUSTED)
3 PLACES , BREAK EVEN (+44 CENTS, REBATE ADJUSTED)
3 SHOWS, -$1.40

5.8% DOLLAR LOSS.

CTX 9TH RACE SCRATCH BROUGHT IN A WINNER

ALL SHOW MUTUALS WERE @ 2.20.. NO REBATES



Just updated my data base and found another scratch horse that then brought a winner.
the 5th at AUQ, # 2 wins ;
thus:
5 plays
3 WINS , FOR A NET +.45 +.35 rebate= .85.
4 PLACES , +.50+.35 rebate= .85
4 SHOWS, -.55 +.07 rebate= -.48

8% DOLLAR profit

all calculations are based on a $1 pws bet