Need to leads

[46zilzal]

I think there is a big misconception abut these types. There are VERY FEW need to lead routers and we most always remember the ones who were as they tend to stand out: Spend A Buck, Precisionist, Balto Star to name a few. The vast majority of this DYED in the WOOL, I MUST HAVE THE LEAD type are sprinters.

These guys usually CANNOT win unless they are un-molested (unchallenged in the earliest part of the race). Energy distribution wise, they stand out like the proverbial sore thumb. I followed one a few yers ago in Florida name Demoncrat. This one had ultra-quick moves but if anyone went with him, he would try to go beyond his capabilities and have NOTHING left in the tank. One day he was sprinting against a field without another E or E/P in the race and won at 22/1. The next time he ran, I discovered that that last race was his ONLY E/P in the last ten starts. When they get a lead without pressure, they relax and change the energy distribution, so always remember NEVER use a line like that. They have their COMPETITIVE lines and their WINNING lines and the two are exclusive to one another.

[twindouble]

I think there is a big misconception abut these types. There are VERY FEW need to lead routers and we most always remember the ones who were as they tend to stand out: Spend A Buck, Precisionist, Balto Star to name a few. The vast majority of this DYED in the WOOL, I MUST HAVE THE LEAD type are sprinters.

These guys usually CANNOT win unless they are un-molested (unchallenged in the earliest part of the race). Energy distribution wise, they stand out like the proverbial sore thumb. I followed one a few yers ago in Florida name Demoncrat. This one had ultra-quick moves but if anyone went with him, he would try to go beyond his capabilities and have NOTHING left in the tank. One day he was sprinting against a field without another E or E/P in the race and won at 22/1. The next time he ran, I discovered that that last race was his ONLY E/P in the last ten starts. When they get a lead without pressure, they relax and change the energy distribution, so always remember NEVER use a line like that. They have their COMPETITIVE lines and their WINNING lines and the two are exclusive to one another.

Every race shapes up different, as you know horses that can go to the lead can control the pace, sprint or route, the key is pace. When speed is pressed, sprint or route then what you said will hold up or the rabbit will create the same result.


T.D.

[46zilzal]

Every race shapes up different, as you know horses that can go to the lead can control the pace, sprint or route, the key is pace. When speed is pressed, sprint or route then what you said will hold up or the rabbit will create the same result.

T.D.
True

[Tom]

Identifying the E vs the EP is crucial for this reason. (In HTR, we call them F or E). I do ot trust any prgram's call on running styles - I always look and make my own call. 90% of the time, I agree with HTR, 50% with BRIS. Never had an issue with DRF (:rolleyes: ).

46, I believe you use the energy distribution method for assigning running styles? Do you still use a version of an energy generator for track profiles?

[46zilzal]

46, I believe you use the energy distribution method for assigning running styles? Do you still use a version of an energy generator for track profiles?
The program Speculator PA (written by the late Guy Wadsworth) calculates the energy distribution of EACH line in the past ten to give you an idea of both NORMALCY of running line and what the direction the FORM cycle is going.

I then go back each card, each distance and each track to follow the style and EXTENT (how early) of that style is the current profile for that course. Having that alone put you MILES ahead of the crowd

[keilan]

The program Speculator PA (written by the late Guy Wadsworth) calculates the energy distribution of EACH line in the past ten to give you an idea of both NORMALCY of running line and what the direction the FORM cycle is going.

I then go back each card, each distance and each track to follow the style and EXTENT (how early) of that style is the current profile for that course. Having that alone put you MILES ahead of the crowd


46 -- do me a favour and post some winners before they run, I'd be interested how many miles you are ahead of the crowd :jump:

[46zilzal]

46 -- do me a favour and post some winners before they run, I'd be interested how many miles you are ahead of the crowd

HISTORY is where one learns about racing. I am NOT a tout service. I lose often but I see trends that repeat. It would not be productive to put all of them up so I put up the INSTRUCTIVE Ones just as I do at SartinAlums

another example TODAY
finale at the Big A SEVEN BELLSFORBARBARA going off 3/1 with Eibar Coa

last three lines
total median %
162.02 69.9
164.60 69.6
166.27 68.6

energy distribtuion suggested this one would NOT do well and it did not.

[keilan]

HISTORY is where one learns about racing. I am NOT a tout service. I lose often but I see trends that repeat. It would not be productive to put all of them up so I put up the INSTRUCTIVE Ones just as I do at SartinAlums

another example TODAY
finale at the Big A SEVEN BELLSFORBARBARA going off 3/1 with Eibar Coa

last three lines
total median %
162.02 69.9
164.60 69.6
166.27 68.6

energy distribtuion suggested this one would NOT do well and it did not.



You're a teacher --gotcha :lol: :lol:

[46zilzal]

You're a teacher --gotcha :lol: :lol:
Quite simply YES I hold seminars and have many writing credits to my name..

[cj]

Wouldn't the last race being in the mud be a reason to perhaps excuse the slightly higher %M? I know mud races definitely run higher.

[keilan]

Quite simply YES I hold seminars and have many writing credits to my name..


Does Berrythegold's name ever come up? :lol:

And where would one find these "writing credits"?

[46zilzal]

Does Berrythegold's name ever come up? :lol:

And where would one find these "writing credits"?

I wasn't going to mention it, but on 9/04 as the 2/1 morning line choice (right before he DISAPPEARED again), this horse's last three were classic and the gelding finished NO WHERE, just as the energy distribution suggested.

total energy median%

166.99 69.3
165.80 68.5
166.21 67.5

[46zilzal]

Does Berrythegold's name ever come up? :lol:

And where would one find these "writing credits"?
One appeared in The Backstrech about European race courses entitled "Courses for Horses" about 1990

[keilan]

I wasn't going to mention it, but on 9/04 as the 2/1 morning line choice (right before he DISAPPEARED again), this horse's last three were classic and the gelding finished NO WHERE, just as the energy distribution suggested.

total energy median%

166.99 69.3
165.80 68.5
166.21 67.5

You’re great at diversions, I just hope he doesn't come back and win another 4 in a row. :)

Do people pay you money at these seminars? 46 you are aware that if you have something to sell on PA 's site I get a cut.

[46zilzal]

IT would be ONE Thing to make it up, but all I do is read the data

[keilan]

IT would be ONE Thing to make it up, but all I do is read the data


Data – it’s all in the interpretation.

Enjoy the remainder of your day 46 :)

[46zilzal]

Data – it’s all in the interpretation.

Enjoy the remainder of your day 46 :)
same to you

[46zilzal]

Wouldn't the last race being in the mud be a reason to perhaps excuse the slightly higher %M? I know mud races definitely run higher.
probably but I usually don't put too much credit in that PARTICULARLY at Aqueduct

[jk3521]

it would be interesting if a software program or past performances could show the makeup of the field as far as early speed . Now there is something to work on all you programmers!

[46zilzal]

Found a copy of the lead in on said article

[46zilzal]

it would be interesting if a software program or past performances could show the makeup of the field as far as early speed . Now there is something to work on all you programmers!
already available as the early/late balance in Speculator and Validator as well

[twindouble]

it would be interesting if a software program or past performances could show the makeup of the field as far as early speed . Now there is something to work on all you programmers!


Jk, there's all kinds of speed and pace figures out there now, plus there's guys here that create their own. I don't use them so I'll let other bring them to your attention.

Good Luck and keep posting, many good handicappers here, computer and old diehards like me that just uses the DRF. :cool:


T.D.

[46zilzal]

found another about collecting racing memorabillia