Andicap? todays 1st Belmont

[Derek2U]

Yes, kinda tough race, 1-turn mile.
TOSS: #1,4,6,8

Now, the fun begins: I think #2 (Brass Tango) is a total sucker
bet; So, I intend to toss that bum out. hehe

The most likely FAV should-will be #10, Whiskey Chaser.
This horse is highly cranked up and appears ready to stalk
some easy targets. #7 (Compatriot) is distance ready for sure.
Ditto for #5 (Sea Squirrel).

The most likely pace scenario will be this: #1,3,9 will set the
early fractions with #10, outside, waiting to pounce. At the
top of the stretch, #10 will take over, but will he succumb to
closers #5 and #7? Or will #3, seemingly part of the early
pace, stay in there?

In short, its a great race but maybe not bettable for me.

Has anyone here got pace #s on this race? I'm curious.

[Tom]

I'll go with a 5-6-7 box.

[Tom]

Got a "hat-zacta" 1-3. Nice price on my top horse-too bad I didn't have him! Had the LS win/place...D'OH!!!! Some one email me a bullet.

In the 4th - like the 6 -lots of trainer angles going for him and bred for the lawn. At 9-1, looks like a play.
Box 4-6-7 too. Fav with two longshots with something going for them.

[Derek2U]

hehe ... i had #9 little me too in the 4th ... it paid $9.90/place,
but i bet $10 win hehe ... the FAV was a questionable FAV ...
a 5yr old with 3 races only ... was he sowing his wild oats all
them years ... i sometimes wonder if i should bet some to place
on my key horse, but i'm not sure how to figure that ...

[Tom]

Belmont 5th.....#4 Nowrass.
Good thing they are on the inner this time - my horse in the last, on the main, is still out there somewhere<G>.
Derek....I looked a long time at the 9 last race....too long! D'OH!

[Tom]

Nowrass - 6-1 flies downthe stretch.Yes!
How about this - looking at last turf race of each horse, top was 94 then two tied at 90. These two run 1-2 and the exacta comes back $247!!!!

[Derek2U]

secondistis ... i bet #10 Berchdagen ... hehe ... 1-1/4 race w/ a pace like a sprint 23 4/5 ... $14.80 to place ... i dint consider
Nowrass ...

[Tom]

Derek - we should have gotten together on that one <G>
6th race, I like #6 Sugar Dipped.

[Derek2U]

just boxed the 1-2-5-7 ... and made another sea breeze ...
hehe ....

[Derek2U]

hehe ... good pick #6, $9.70 .... my mother came over to
the tv and said i like lentil ...hehe

[Derek2U]

just when u think of tomorrow, a race shows up with 1 front
runner in it, on the rail, and it pays $18 .... its amazing ...
thats why i love racing so much, opportunity at so many
places .. and i played 1 exacta ..2/1 not even reversed.

Now for the 8th ... the Fav #4 looks formidable at 7fs... i recall
how he strained totally to try to be in front last race ... he fought
JR from start 2 finish; but at 8:5 ...

is the #2 appealing danger that much a changed horse?

[Tom]

Originally posted by Derek2U

Now for the 8th ... the Fav #4 looks formidable at 7fs... i recall
how he strained totally to try to be in front last race ... he fought
JR from start 2 finish; but at 8:5 ...



He sets a new track record! I think formidable was an understatement! He looked mah-vel-ous!
Ya know, I am using Formulator and the incremental-this horse view, so I can look at each horse's individual fracctions along with the Beyer. This is a great view because you could see that Left Bank had better turn times than Affirmed Success, and that was his only contender, I thought. AS is getting old and when he goes faster than 22-4, he is in trouble. That 22 flat last race probably cooked him after a 21-4 two back. Too fast for the old guy. LB can do 22-change easy and still win and come back the next time.
I love this Formulator view.

[Derek2U]

i was thinkin of trying that Form#3 ... in this 9th race at belmont
i really dont know (never knew) how to figure these euro girls
out. But I think the Fav #2 (Volga) is sorta weak. Maybe i'll
just fun play the #6 (Mot Juste) and #1 (Owsley) with a the 2
heavily bet ones. hehe ... i think ur remarks about AS are
bullseye.

[Tom]

#10 - Robyn's Gold Charm
Exacta box 5-9-10

[Rpd]

Tom & Derek2U

Sounds like the both of you were really on today. Congrats!!

You both had some very interesting observations.

[Tom]

Ain't this game great?
Comfy chair, AC on high, lemonade in a frosted glass, and the horseys running your way on your computer screen.
Somebody pinch me.

[andicap]

Derek,
Didn't play today, but should be back tomorrow as I have to go to work and if I get my act together in the morning and finish my story, I'll have nothing left to do.

[Derek2U]

Yesterday had great racing, and i did okay, and since i hardly
ever moan-groan except when i get an awful ride, but looking
back only one race annoys me because i did NOT make a solid
bet on the winner & in fact underestimated how obvious that
winner was: 6th race, 1-1/16 Turf, and the winner, paid
$9.70. Sugar Dipped. (Tom picked her cold). Like i said, sometimes its good if I review just how could I overlook that
filly's peaking when her 3 races all shouted "TODAY." hehe ,,
now back to going forward.