banacek
12-30-2005, 06:57 PM
This year I entered information on my odds line (computer generated from my home-grown program) at my local track (Hastings) as I went - to avoid cheating (subconscious or otherwise) When I could not estimate a horse's odds, I used their morning line (e.g. First Time Starters) as a rough estimate. I recorded my odds line, the morning line (adjusted for scratches) and the final odds as well as class, sex, etc. for the lowest three on the odds line.
Here are some of my results so far for races of 6.0 and 6.5 furlongs:
I seem to have the best prospects on fasts tracks (a small profit just betting lowest on my odds line) so I have some info on prospective overlays for that case (I'm working on the rest). I know the sample isn't that big, but it is a whole year at Hastings!
The sloppy tracks gave lousy results - especially when it was sealed - my odds line is set up to give an edge to front runners and the sealing of the track when it was sloppy seems (by my observation anyways) be bad for front runners at Hastings - must do some more work on that though. What exactly happens when they seal a track?
Any comments are appreciated.
HAST 2005
FIRST CHOICE
ALL RACES (6.0 OR 6.5 FURLONGS)
AT LEAST 3 RATEABLE HORSES
526 RACES
169 WINS 32.1% ROI –1.9%
271 PLACES 51.5%
352 SHOWS 66.9%
JUST SLOPPY TRACKS
146 RACES
43 WINS 29.5% ROI -11.3%
79 PLACES 54.1%
102 SHOWS 69.9%
JUST FAST TRACKS
304 RACES
103 WINS 33.9% ROI +6.2%
156 PLACES 51.3%
197 SHOWS 64.8%
ML OVERLAYS (my odds line was lower then the morning line)
151 RACES
47 WINS 31.1% ROI +13.7%
ODDS OVERLAYS(my odds line was lower then the actual odds)
125 RACES
27 WINS 21.6% ROI +18.6%
JUST GOOD TRACKS
76 RACES
23 WINS 30.3% ROI -2.4%
36 PLACES 47.4%
53 SHOWS 69.7%
Here are some of my results so far for races of 6.0 and 6.5 furlongs:
I seem to have the best prospects on fasts tracks (a small profit just betting lowest on my odds line) so I have some info on prospective overlays for that case (I'm working on the rest). I know the sample isn't that big, but it is a whole year at Hastings!
The sloppy tracks gave lousy results - especially when it was sealed - my odds line is set up to give an edge to front runners and the sealing of the track when it was sloppy seems (by my observation anyways) be bad for front runners at Hastings - must do some more work on that though. What exactly happens when they seal a track?
Any comments are appreciated.
HAST 2005
FIRST CHOICE
ALL RACES (6.0 OR 6.5 FURLONGS)
AT LEAST 3 RATEABLE HORSES
526 RACES
169 WINS 32.1% ROI –1.9%
271 PLACES 51.5%
352 SHOWS 66.9%
JUST SLOPPY TRACKS
146 RACES
43 WINS 29.5% ROI -11.3%
79 PLACES 54.1%
102 SHOWS 69.9%
JUST FAST TRACKS
304 RACES
103 WINS 33.9% ROI +6.2%
156 PLACES 51.3%
197 SHOWS 64.8%
ML OVERLAYS (my odds line was lower then the morning line)
151 RACES
47 WINS 31.1% ROI +13.7%
ODDS OVERLAYS(my odds line was lower then the actual odds)
125 RACES
27 WINS 21.6% ROI +18.6%
JUST GOOD TRACKS
76 RACES
23 WINS 30.3% ROI -2.4%
36 PLACES 47.4%
53 SHOWS 69.7%