PLAYING OFF TRACKS

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

In keeping with the theme that we can all learn from a number of opinions.my question to all of you horseplayers on this site...

what is the best handicapping advice you can put forward for playing wet racetracks? I'll sit back and listen to all the tips that come forward from this thread.Wet track play is a glaring weakness in my play and i am attempting to show vast improvement for the upcoming year.:ThmbUp:

thank you for any responses and happy and prosperous 2006 for all.
sincerely Zappi

[Capper Al]

Some say look for early speed, others say look for mudders, with simulcast I say look for another track that's fast. Don't worry, be happy!

[FUGITIVE77]

I look up a horse's figures used under simliar track conditions. For a sloppy track I will use only speed figures earned on a sloppy track. Many times you will have to go back more than the 10 races in the PPs. There's a lot more but that's the basics.

[twindouble]

In keeping with the theme that we can all learn from a number of opinions.my question to all of you horseplayers on this site...

what is the best handicapping advice you can put forward for playing wet racetracks? I'll sit back and listen to all the tips that come forward from this thread.Wet track play is a glaring weakness in my play and i am attempting to show vast improvement for the upcoming year.:ThmbUp:

thank you for any responses and happy and prosperous 2006 for all.
sincerely Zappi

Speed carries further on todays wet tracks, mud and sly or wet fast sealed, I look for horse that can get clear and not have the slop hit them in the face. Front runners don't always win, stalkers and outside horses that stay clear and close to the pace are playable as well.

[GaryG]

Often a horse's performance on off tracks is a function of his current form rather than whether he likes the mud. There are exceptions to be sure, but I usually stick with my figures. The days of the old time mudlarks hve long passed.

[JackS]

Speed probably always unless you know better. Also less attention to the stat box. Horses who have favorable stats in the off track will usually have unfavorable odds to go with it. Assume all speed horses will run in the slop and in a sense, they usually do. It could be an old wifes tale that horses have to like or love a surface to win on it. Many horses might hate the off going but will win anyway. Use the stat box to disqualify horses rather than to qualify if you must. I usually don't.

[JulieKrone]

For the most part I agree with Gary. Track maintenance today, esp. at the larger tracks, has evolved into sealing a track at the slightest hint of rain, turning it into concrete(actually much harder than when normally dry), which at a couple of tracks may even get slippery at times, but which usually affords all body types a chance. Pretty much the only times when this differs, which used to be the case in the old days, is when unexpected precipitation catches an un-sealed track by mistake, and after a prolonged spell of rain where they dredge up the track to allow it to dry out faster. The proverbial horse for such a course is light, athletic, smaller hoof(think router).... a heavy, muscled sprinter type is going to sink in deeper with each step & have worse traction on slippery going.
As an aside-- today's predilection for sealing has killed one historical golden goose. It used to be that running on wet, giving course would likely cause a bounce in the next race: it uses up muscles but in different ways / different muscles; causing the kind of soreness those of you athletes coming back from a layoff and/or starting a new training regimen can understand. The race after the bounce would afford a good price.

Depending on your track's gradient & other configuration, as well in which part of the raining or drying out cycle, the rail may be death valley or the only path to victory-- ditto for the crown(the highest part around the middle usually).

At CDSN.net in particular, each track superintendent writes up a daily report which is extremely helpful for both dirt & turf.

If you have a database, I would run a couple of mutuel $ queries by individual track: one divided into WF & all other wets lumped together, another divided into Muddy & all others lumped together. At the track & condition where you find high mutuels you know you can take stabs & flyers.

Again, your answer is predicated on the particular track. At some tracks wet is just another day at the office: no exaggerated mutuels, any horse can win; but say, at Saratoga, historically it's been horses for courses(on dry going too)-- mud larks may not do well on Saratoga off-going; conversely you see other where their only wet win(s) occur there. Even Dave Liftin at DRF knows this-- compiling every year his whorses for courses list. At the few tracks where this occurs, a slight variation of Takach's sire & broodmare sire stats divided by individual turf course may help-- in this case sorted by say, Saratoga wet.

Mud caulks is another category that varies by track. At the downstate NYRA tracks(particularly Aqueduct) you will earn a pretty penny by blindly betting all that are wearing them on non-rainy days: meaning that there are some days when there is a small chance of rain, though not a likely one.; so you may see one horse per race- maybe two, maybe none- sporting them. They come in and at a price usually(when there's two don't go boxing an exacta, a win dutch will do). The info is not posted beforehand though, you have to be at the paddock or watch the monitors for the scrolling info like a hawk. Conversely, i have not noticed that this works on either California circuit.

As much as possible I discount wet figs whether good or bad, when dry-handicapping. This is particularly helpful when the public goes gaga over a young horse that just posted an atmospheric wet fig.

May the whorse be with you.

[JackS]

Hi Julie. No comment on your post but just want to brag tomorrow that I passed a comment on the internet with the great Julie Krone.

[JulieKrone]

Oh, gosh no. Sorry to get everyone into such a lather-- she is just my favorite jockey of all time.
But I do have a very nice horse whip for all those that are into that.
Bbbbrrrr, bbbbrrrr.

[FORGO]

Julie thankyou for all the great rides and fond memories. Most guys were not afraid to bet your mounts because they knew you had something special or you would'nt be in the big leagues. I had a pet name for you I called you my favorite munchkin. Love you and miss you dear.
In the old days at some of the tracks they used to have a shoe board posted. If a trainer changed shoes to mud calks he generally had intentions of cashing some tickets. The surfaces have changed but some of the old tactics still apply become a student of Pedigre as it applies to off track racing. You cannot play Turf races with out it. Front runners who like slop with jokeys who like slop with trainers who like slop. MUD CALKS MUD CALKS MUD CALKS Check the SHOE BOARD or Shoe Information from services. Do your home work and you will love rainy days. Master one or two tracks keep records what happens when it rains you will love the prices and the odds. Dutching will help because there are atleast two or three mud calk contenders. Julie don't be a stranger to the board we like to read your input good stuff. Julie Krone fan FORGO :)

[PaceAdvantage]

JulieKrone ain't the real Julie Krone. The real Julie Krone has a space between her first and last name....:lol:

[NoDayJob]

:D When playing "off tracks" make sure to bring your umbrella, rain slicker and mud boots. Then it's a cinch! :D

[46zilzal]

Julie and the WORST ride I can recall: 49er in the Breeders' Cup Classic 1988. Took a dedicated SPEED horse back and tired to make a late move.Take a horse OUT of it's game and that is the result. Animal 49er beat twice (Seeking the Gold, another speedball) ran second since Day did not try to muscle him.

AND IT WAS AN OFF TRACK TO BOOT which would have favored that style.

[rrbauer]

I used to love to play "off" tracks.....that was in the days when we had "off" tracks that were muddy and heavy and slow and that produced some real track bias plays that had nothing to do with how the track maintenance crew prepared the track for the days races. One of my best friends went by the moniker, "Mud Mark", and in the SoCal winters he would do rain dances in his back yard. One winter Santa Anita had about half of its racing days on off tracks and we got into a groove in sprint races of building exactas around speeders and sweepers. Race after race, a speed horse (speeder) would shake loose early, and then in the stretch here would come a closer (sweeper) and those two would battle to the wire; although, in many cases the speeder was long gone and it was up to the sweeper to come along and finish the exacta.

Today, as has been pointed out in this thread, the off track game is in the hands of the track superintendent and the maintenance crew. Add to this the incessant scratching of horses when the track comes up off and you are left with a lot of overbet chalk. Also, a lot of trainers do not train their horses on "off" tracks so you don't have much to go on when they do run.

Because of this I take the day off when the track comes up other than fast on the dirt side and other than firm/good on the turf side. There are enough days with good-weather racing that I don't need to deal with the variables and unknowns that bad-weather racing brings to the table.

[Tom]

I do the same - when it's wet, I look elsewhere.

Tom Ainsle gave that sage advice years ago. Back then, you had no options - go home. Today, there is always another track running.

[JulieKrone]

46, you're cruisin' to become 86.

[46zilzal]

46, you're cruisin' to become 86.
86??????

[JulieKrone]

86??????
Ask any acquaintace in the Security or Hospitality fields to explain to you.

[Tom]

86:

http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a1_291b.html

[banacek]

For some of the same reasons it was also Maxwell Smart's agent number, I believe.

[46zilzal]

I thought it was some sort of heiroglyphyics