Morning line oddsmakers

[shanta]

Any tracks that members here feel the morning line oddsmaker is very sharp at?

2nd question is more technical:
can any of the database guys here break down % of wins at a track ( non maidens) of horses LESS than 10/1 ML? Is this doable and is it something u would be willing to share?

Thanx
Richie

[Tom]

What track(s) you interested in?

[shanta]

What track(s) you interested in?

Hi Tom,

1- Aqueduct
2- Santa Anita
3- Tampa Bay

Richie

[Tom]

I'll do that tonight.


Just heading out to grab me some Tony Roma's "Flintstone" ribs for dinner!:eek:
And a dozen Krispy Kremes to go with my champagne tonight.
Ringing in the new year with a sugar coma!

[46zilzal]

IF the crowd makes the odds what does it matter where they START??

[shanta]

I'll do that tonight.


Just heading out to grab me some Tony Roma's "Flintstone" ribs for dinner!:eek:
And a dozen Krispy Kremes to go with my champagne tonight.
Ringing in the new year with a sugar coma!

LMAO! Thanx Tom. I really appreciate it.

" Tu Salute"

Richie

[Overlay]

IF the crowd makes the odds what does it matter where they START??

A fair question. Would the morning line be a holdover from the days when bookmakers would set their lines before the race, and it was their odds you were actually betting against? Even though the public now sets the odds with their wagers, and the morning line is not the final determinant of post-time odds, the public may have expected a starting set of odds under the pari-mutuel system similar to the bookmaker's line. The morning line would also be useful to folks who couldn't tell one end of a horse from the other, so they would have some basis for making a wager other than the colors of the jockey's silks.

[toetoe]

Ya gotta know what the majority of $2 bettors will be backing in the serial bets. As we know they'll be betting chalk/2nd chalk in about every leg. If those coincide with my picks too often, I can avoid chasing peanuts. Serial bets and early-bird bets are the only use I see for the m. l. these days.

[BetHorses!]

Any tracks that members here feel the morning line oddsmaker is very sharp at?

Richie

I always thought the guy at Gulfstream was the sharpest.

The guy at Philly Park is no good

[rokitman]

The Woodbine line is a joke.

I wished it did matter but it doesn't. Horse players aren't that dumb. Anybody following that morons line to make any decisions won't be putting money into the pools for long.

[Tom]

Richie,

Sorry to be late - the paramedics were busy last night and couldn't get to me unitl late! :D

Tampa Bay - since 2001

Number races (non-maded) - 2716
Number winners less than ml 10-1 - 2298 (84%)

Is this what you are looking for?
I could break it down by surface, sex, age, etc if you need that?

[Tom]

Richie,


Aqueduct Oct 03 - May 05

Number non maiden races - 1421
Number winners <10-1 - 1231 (87%)


SAX Sept 03 - Oct 05

Number races - 1366
Number won <10 - 1226 (90%)

[shanta]

Richie,

Sorry to be late - the paramedics were busy last night and couldn't get to me unitl late! :D

Tampa Bay - since 2001

Number races (non-maded) - 2716
Number winners less than ml 10-1 - 2298 (84%)

Is this what you are looking for?
I could break it down by surface, sex, age, etc if you need that?

Tom
This is exactly what I was looking for! I will definitely take u up on your offer of a "breakdown"

Age:
2 yr olds
all others

Surface:
d
t

Sex:
as often as possible :D

THANK YOU!!

Richie

[Murph]

I've always considered Mike Batagllia to be the best ML oddsmaker. His work for Churchill Downs is an extremely accurate ML. He seems to have a knack for predicting how the public will bet based on published info. He will sometimes mention when he likes a runner more than the ML indicates. A bit of evidence to show that he tries to leave his personal opinion out of it.


Murph

[nomadpat]

What I'm wondering is does the ML influence people's perceptions? For the sharp/experienced handicapper, it is irrelevant since they look at their idea of fair value and compare it to what is being offered on the tote. But what about the others?
An example to debate is the Preakness. If the ML on Giacomo and Afleet Alex would have been reversed would that have made a differece on the final odds?

[GlenninOhio]

I've always considered Mike Batagllia to be the best ML oddsmaker. His work for Churchill Downs is an extremely accurate ML. He seems to have a knack for predicting how the public will bet based on published info. He will sometimes mention when he likes a runner more than the ML indicates. A bit of evidence to show that he tries to leave his personal opinion out of it.


Murph

I had an interesting conversation with Mike Battaglia at a party at Turfway in mid-December and I was impressed.

He offered up a well thought out critique of the statistical approach underlying a DRF article that debunked the idea that turf horses do well on the poly surface. I'm forgetting the details (I could try to jar my memory if anyone is interested) but Mike is convinced that poly is kind to turf horses and he made some persuasive points. It was also apparent that in setting his Turfway morning line he gives a lot of credibility to horses that have run at least once on the poly and have performed reasonably well.

As an aside, he took me and my daughter up to his "crows nest" about 12 minutes before post time and proceeded to call a race without a hitch despite spending much of his prep time chatting with us. Nice guy to boot.

[the little guy]

I always thought the guy at Gulfstream was the sharpest.

The guy at Philly Park is no good

Chuck Streva does the ML at Gulfstream. He's extremely sharp and knowledgable as well as one of the nicest guys at any racetrack.

[Tom]

For a while, Finger Lakes used a group of people to make the ML - it was like that part in the movie Spartacus.... where all the slaves claimed to be Sparty to protect him:


"I'm Trackman"
"I'm Trackman"
"I'm TrackMan"
"I'm Trackman"

[Tom]

Richie,


Tampa Bay (Non-maiden)

Dirt races 2001-2004

#R = 2158
#H<10-1 = 11,899
#W<10-1 = 1827 (85%)

Turf Races 2001 - 2004

#R = 558
#H<10-1 = 3,221
#W<10-1 = 471 (84%)

[shanta]

Richie,


Tampa Bay (Non-maiden)

Dirt races 2001-2004

#R = 2158
#H<10-1 = 11,899
#W<10-1 = 1827 (85%)

Turf Races 2001 - 2004

#R = 558
#H<10-1 = 3,221
#W<10-1 = 471 (84%)


Got it Tom!
Thank you
Richie :)