Newbie at the game

[penguinfan]

Thanks to all who read and reply. I am relatively new at the ponies and the biggest thing that has me scratching my head is just how to make money at this game, before you laugh and dismiss me as some lunatic, here me out. I know a guy on the internet that routinly picks about 4 winners as his top choice per day at the track he handicaps, sometimes as many as 7-8 out of ten in his top 2, but just how do you go about wagering them? On days he hits say 4 top choices (which from my humble understanding is not bad out of ten races) a $100.00 flat bet on top would still lose money alot of days, yea he catches some short prices, but thats the horse that won. Is that winning percentage too low, or is flat betting a top choice the wrong thing to due? I have figured out the ROI on dutching the top 2 plays as well and again you come out behind most days. There has got to be a way to wager at 40% winners that would show a profit, right? Again, I am new at this and have been following the horses closely for about 6 weeks now, so be kind ;)

penguinfan
:confused: :confused: :confused:

[cj]

Seems to me your friend is probably selecting nearly all favorites. There are many ways to beat the game, but selecting low priced horses in every race is not one of them. If he is really good at selecting legitimate favorites, he should avoid races where he isn't so sure. Think of it like this-if I select one horse at 10-1 who wins, I am ahead of someone who selects 4 winners paying $3, $4, $5, and $6. Hope that gives you some food for thought.

CJ

[ranchwest]

Let's start with a simple example.

If the average payoff on your winners is $4.00, then that is double your money on an individual race. That means that to make a profit you must hit over 50% winners.

If we double the take to $8, then we need over 25% winners.

Obviously, to make a significant profit you need to be well above these numbers, not an easy task, but that will give you an idea of what it takes to make a profit on win wagers.

While $5 horses can provide modest earnings that keep one in the game, obviously the big scores need to come at some point to make a significant profit. This could be through a longshot in the win pool or through exotic wagers.

[superfecta]

How many horses does this guy pick per race?3or 4?when one of his picks win,does he count it even if it was the last horse he listed?
I hate that about most tip sheets,they list 4 choices and if one wins they brag on hitting it.In many races 4 choices is half the field!Or bragging on short priced favorites.Just as bad,IMO.
The only benefit I can see is to use these picks as key horses for exotics,try to hit a super or tri ,cause if they are low odds horses,the exacta won't pay enough.

[penguinfan]

This guy just uses his top choice whrn counting winners, but I really didn't mean to focus on him, I really wanted to know if you can get ahead by playing just win tickets or if you gotta hit the gimmicks to make any money at this. It just seems that you either have to handicap SEVERAL tracks and find some longshots or you have to hit like 60%+ at any given track, I guess this is where software comes into play as I have some free time to do the handicapping (still learning), but I don't have time to handicap 100+ races each day to find 3 or 4 longshots. Do most of you guys use software or not? I was just reading through the users guide for Equisim ROI, but I have mis-placed my graduate degree from Harvard so I can't really figure it out just yet. Damn program is tougher to use than just handicapping the races.
Thanks again
Penguinfan

[JustRalph]

You have to know when to pass a race. Most of the good handicappers on this site can pick the top 2 horses in a race. When the public picks the top two or three and leaves a good horse out, you make money. Remember, you are playing against the public. Knowing when to pass is as important as knowing when to play. Now if your friend only plays on the races where he wins....? or lets say he only plays 6 races and passes the other four of a ten race card. He wins his same four, and only loses two.....he makes money, if he picks the right races.

Your friend might end up playing more than one card a day, if he plays less but wins more. But he can afford it if he plays the right ones. Playing online makes this really easy. Some days I might look at 30 races or 3 different tracks and find 10 playable races. Other days I might play twenty-twenty five. Pick and choose correctly. On the days where I am just having fun and I am using a bunch of their money, I might play more. I have played as many 40 races in one day before. We have guys in here that play more than that. Choosing when to play is the hard part if you ask me. Playing the right bets is the next challenge. Live and learn.

[sq764]

Being a longshot player, I have become that way out of necessity.. Not because you can't win playing lower priced horses, but rather that is what I need to do to win. I may only hit 15-20% of my win selections, but I take nothing below 7/1.. There will be streaks where I will miss 10, 11, 12 in a row, but I know that if I keep hitting 1 out of every 6 7/1 or better shot, I will profit..

Just my theory..