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12-27-2005, 05:50 AM
Has anyone ventured over to Ed Bain's web site and noticed that he has been posting both his and wife Susan's selections for the better part of December?

These selections are posted after the races and are for sale prior to the races.

I consider myself a relatively knowledgeable exotics player but have been somewhat "intrigued" with Susan's structuring of wagers.

Any opinions?


http://www.edbain.com/results.htm

JustMissed
12-27-2005, 09:50 AM
Why would anyone buy those picks?

How about those trifectas? I never heard of anyone playing ALL in the first slot and playing a single in the Show slot. Weird. :rolleyes:

JM

Turntime
12-27-2005, 12:17 PM
This is a common model if you play the dogs. Verbally you would say that you're playing one dog ahead of the other, for example playing the #1 ahead of the #2 you would call out 1-2-all, 1-all-2 and all-1-2 for a total of 18 combo's. The dynamics of dog racing often make this a good play.

Keying a horse in third is not such a strange idea. Sometimes a horse that is too slow to win is a perfect candidate to hit the back hole because of the race dynamics. A perfect example of this is this year's Belmont Stakes (CJ will back me on this).

I'm not a big fan of the liberal use of the 'All' button as Susan seems to be, although if it makes her long term profits I have no objection to it.

BIG49010
12-28-2005, 12:24 AM
Kind of a turn off for purchasing his other stuff?

keilan
12-28-2005, 12:32 AM
How about those trifectas? I never heard of anyone playing ALL in the first slot and playing a single in the Show slot. Weird. :rolleyes:

JM


Really :rolleyes:

RonTiller
12-28-2005, 07:37 AM
How about those trifectas? I never heard of anyone playing ALL in the first slot and playing a single in the Show slot. Weird.
Wow! I've never been a trifecta player but I've been around trifecta players for a long time and singletons in the place or show slot sandwiched between ALL in the other slots (one or both) is not at all "exotic". Its commonplace among trifecta players I know. Maybe I know a weird lot of players.

My favorite example was always the Russell Baze Sandwich - in a race where Russell Baze was on the favorite AND vulnerable to not winning (though still looking good to finish 2nd), and the race handicapped to being wide open, bet ALL - Baze - ALL, a Russell Baze Sandwich. This type of betting is not automatic, requires some handicapping skills and requires some skills in selecting the place horse, a skill that I'm sure some would say does not exist.

Ron Tiller
HDW

andicap
12-28-2005, 11:09 AM
I don't press the ALL button as a matter of course, but if I like a good longshot and key him 3rd (plus win and 2nd in exactas), I'll hit the ALL button for 2nd if I think one or two horses have the race wrapped up. I hate to miss a nice Tri when an obvious horse wins the race and my bomb is 3rd and some weird non-contender slips in 2nd by some chance.

HAW last Wed, 7 race field, 3-2 wins 5--1 is 2nd, 15-1 is 3rd and it pays $187. Make it an 8 horse field, turn the 5-1 to 10-1 and that Tri can pay upwards of $300 or even over $400. Much more if you key 2 horses on top and the favorite is out. In an 8-horse field, $12 isn't a lot for a
1,2/ALL/longshot
In a 12-horse field I would try and get a couple real pigs out of there tho I know I'll rue the day I do that eventually.

JustMissed
12-28-2005, 06:17 PM
Really :rolleyes:

Not sure if you took the time to look at her picks and trifecta structure, but if you think this is a wise bet I would sure like for you to explain it too me:

"$1 Trifecta PW 3,4,5,12/All/6"

Bear in mind that this not "one" ticket of a multiply trifecta play but her "only" ticket.

JM :rolleyes:

keilan
12-28-2005, 07:02 PM
Not sure if you took the time to look at her picks and trifecta structure, but if you think this is a wise bet I would sure like for you to explain it too me:

"$1 Trifecta PW 3,4,5,12/All/6"

Bear in mind that this not "one" ticket of a multiply trifecta play but her "only" ticket.

JM :rolleyes:


Let me ask you a question, have you ever felt very confident that a horse will light the board but has a very low percentage of winning?

How let’s say that horse/opinion is 20-1 or certainly an overlay. These combinations guarantee a payday? If the race is very contentious and your opinion happens to be right you then stand a very good chance of catching a nice ticket.

All / overlay / all
All / all / overlay


If you’re trying to save some money then you play the horses you feel have the best chance at winning and structure the ticket as follows.


1-2-3-4-5 / overlay / all
1-2-3-4-5 / all / overlay

I didn’t handicap the race nor do I frequent their site so I haven’t an opinion on what she did. I have played tickets structured like that but I must admit, not often.
The thinking behind it is:
1) I’m only going to get beat once
2) It’s a small investment for potential a large return, and that’s your everyday value wager


Hope that helps

xfile
12-29-2005, 09:32 AM
Let me ask you a question, have you ever felt very confident that a horse will light the board but has a very low percentage of winning?

How let’s say that horse/opinion is 20-1 or certainly an overlay. These combinations guarantee a payday? If the race is very contentious and your opinion happens to be right you then stand a very good chance of catching a nice ticket.

All / overlay / all
All / all / overlay


If you’re trying to save some money then you play the horses you feel have the best chance at winning and structure the ticket as follows.


1-2-3-4-5 / overlay / all
1-2-3-4-5 / all / overlay

I didn’t handicap the race nor do I frequent their site so I haven’t an opinion on what she did. I have played tickets structured like that but I must admit, not often.
The thinking behind it is:
1) I’m only going to get beat once
2) It’s a small investment for potential a large return, and that’s your everyday value wager


Hope that helps

And not play the overlay on top?????????? I mean I key the overlay on top and seldom put him anywhere else. Works for me. :cool:

keilan
12-29-2005, 11:25 AM
Xfile


Of course you’d play an overlay on top if he was a candidate for the win spot but I wouldn’t be keying him in all three spots either. That would be akin to boxing 3 horses in an exactor instead of wheeling. This thread up to now is about structuring tri tickets when the “overlay in question” is Not a candidate for the win spot.

aaron
12-29-2005, 11:47 AM
Being familar with Ed Bain's site and knowing how Susan plays,I'd guess that if you look at the record of the horse keyed for 2nd you'll see that this horse has finished 2nd a great percentage of the time.I don't know what horse or track she is playing,but thats my guess.

delayjf
12-29-2005, 01:02 PM
These types of wagers fall into the catagory of Mark Cramer's "exacta as a place bet" or the "trifecta as a show bet". I have wagered this way at times, but with the idea of cashing a saver bet (with the possiblity of a big score if something strange happens) if my longshot runs well but doesnt win, which is always where the major emphasis of my betting is.