DerbyTrail
12-26-2005, 11:31 AM
WILD MALIBU KICKS OFF SANTA ANITA MEET
By Steve Byk
DerbyTrail.com
Santa Anita, nestled spectacularly at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains, kicks off four months of premium racing today with the 54th running of the Malibu. This 7 furlong event, the last opportunity of the year for three year olds to capture a Gr. I stake, has recently been won by the likes of Rock Hard Ten and Southern Image as initial Strub Series forays towards Santa Anita Handicap glory.
The late season standard has always drawn big names to Arcadia, with Round Table, Native Diver, Buckpasser, Damascus, J.O. Tobin, Spectacular Bid, Ferdinand and Pleasant Tap dotting its list of winners. But the seven-eights challenge has also seen its share of shockers, topped by Affirmed's third place effort in 1979 behind Little Reb and Radar Ahead when the race was still open to 4 year olds. Run Man Run surprised Artax and Event of the Year in 1998, and Lord Grillo bested Silver Charm and Swiss Yodeler the year before that.
Common traits of recent Malibu winners is a win at the tricky seven-eights distance; success at Santa Anita, (or both), and a late-running style initiated from an outside post. When Debonair Joe upset this event in 2002 under Julie Krone at 27-1, he left from the 10 hole and had earned stripes at Arcadia in October when winning an expensive Optional Claimer at 6.5f. Southern Image had an injury-plagued 2003 campaign, but his 14-1 Malibu win under Victor Espinoza from the #10 was foreshadowed slightly by his February showing to Kafwain in Santa Anita's 7f San Vincente. Last year, Rock Hard Ten broke his maiden in February over the course and at the distance before rallying in the Malibu at 5-2 under Gary Stevens from the 9 slot.
The Beyer par for Malibus is 104, and the running times have averaged :22.1, :44.2, 1:08.4, 1:22.1. Additionally, the prices in the superfecta of the last three opening day features have included horses between 1.10-5.00, 9.00-14.00, 16.00-24.00 and 27.00-34.00 each time. Finally, a generous sprinkling of horses with running styles from pacesetter to stone closer have been sprinkled in each of the top four finishers of those previous editions.
An added note of interest about this year's Santa Anita meet in general comes from TrackMaster handicapper Rick Needham. Needham reports that Magna officials brought in Eastern-based track superintendents to help the Santa Anita crew deepen the traditionally hard-packed SoCal surface. Apparently, the SA main has been heavily harrowed and deeply brushed since the Oak Tree meet in the fall, with a new "cushiony" top that has met with widespread trainer approval. (This doesn't mean that classic "cheap California speed" won't still dominate at Santa Anita, but it is information that hadn't otherwise come to light and could be important.)
All of this makes for an outstanding wagering race in which no entrant should be totally discounted for inclusion in exotic tickets.
SA 8th (6:52 EST): 54th MALIBU, Gr. I, $250,000, 7f, 3 year old colts
2. THOR'S ECHO (CA) 121 (Espinoza/O'Neill) 6-1: One of 3 here from O'Neill, son of '97 Malibu show pony Swiss Yodeler has wrung up half mill this annum from Sunland to Hoosier to Prarie Meadows. Won restricted Real Good Deal this trip at Del Mar, and broke maiden this oval versus Cali kin. Fits on figures, but provides little value with frontrunning style and burdensome rail start.
1. (POE) GREELEY'S GALAXY (KY) 121 (Kent D/W. Stute) 4-1: Common ownership (B. W. Hughes) entry with Mandella's Osidy, IL Derby hero returns to action after rush job failures in spring classics. Son of Mr. Greeley totes string of solid works for return, and elder Stute has been better lately with extended break runners. Fast enough if ready, but doubting this is the intended target for red that cleared conditions here last Feb/Mar.
3. YES HE'S A PISTOL (FL) 115 (Douglas/O'Neill) 20-1: Trainer has filled bottom of recent Malibu gimmicks with horses like this, but Yes It's True chestnut was empty when wide at Hastings (Gr. III BC Derby) at 5-2, and couldn't get by Chips Are Down in restricted Bien Bien when last seen. Needs career best for board visit.
4. ATTILA'S STORM (KY) 119 (PVal/Schosberg) 5-2: Became one of our favorites in training quickly this fall when he delivered as promised in BC Sprint when 4th by 3 at 45-1. Barry Schwartz private purchase in the hands of good guy Schosberg who says this Forest Wildcat bay is best he's had since Affirmed Success. Trip west, added panel and pace pressure from the bell all cause for concern at low price, but bay is likely the best horse here and demands respect.
5. SHAMOAN (IRE) 119 (Valdivia/Harty) 30-1: Grass-bred gelding proved out as better dirt runner with IA Derby win, LS and WVa Derby near misses while amassing $300k bankroll so far this year. Figs jumped on the main, and Harty clearly had this event in mind when he benched Monashee Mountain chestnut in September. Has drilled beautifully, (trainer 26% with 60-180 layoffs), and this guy paired up to strong Thoro-Graph top (2) last time he took this type of vacation. At 30-1 with stalking style that fits race flow, it would be crazy not to use him.
6. PROUD TOWER TOO (CA) 119 (Cohen/Gonzalez) 20-1: Nice looking bay Cal-bred has consistently been speed of the speed versus lesser, and wired restricted company thrice under hustlers PVal, TBaze and Cohen. Those efforts, including October ALW this trip and strip, are good enough for check today, but worried about bounce off pair-up to top in last.
7. UNBRIDLED ENERGY (KY) 117 (Gomez/R. Mandella) 8-1: Grey owns pattern of typically fast and unsound Unbridled's Song offspring, but has been with CA ace conditioner for a while and hasn't missed any morning work. Note that last three a.m. efforts were certainly in company with barnmate Osidy, who outworked this Woodbine Gr. III winner slightly last Tuesday. Hot riding Gomez had choice of several here, so fact that he takes reins makes him dangerous in our minds. Should sit good stalking trip drafting those lined up inside him.
8. JACK'S WILD (CA) 115 (John/Gutierrez) 15-1: Deep closing Cal-bred just missed to Proud Tower in the On Trust last when wide rally fell a neck short. Gelding has shown fine, steady development this year, lowering top figs without significant regression demonstrating good horsemanship from Gutierrez. Picks tough spot for graded stakes debut, but seems to usually run his race and can't see why he isn't worth using underneath.
9. ALEXANDERSRUN (FL) 115 (Pedroza/Stein) 30-1: Sweetsouthernsaint gelding now in hands of Stein after good early exploits for Kimmel and Emerald Downs heroics recently for McCanna. Chestnut has tactical foot, a plus here, and good sunrise semesters as well. Hasn't run fast enough to star in this cast, but appears an interesting, healthy horse that could blossom at 4.
10. DILIGENT PROSPECT (FL) 115 (Court/O'Neill) 10-1: '05 Derby buzz horse off juvy exploits has been limited to pair of soph starts so far giving him similar look as Southern Image. Owns muddy SA-7f win from a year ago, but appears up against it on several fronts today.
11. FUSAICHI ROCK STAR (FL) 117 (Fujita/Baffert) 20-1: Baffert-Sekiguchi grey opened year with San Vincente (Gr. II, SA-7f) win but has made only two starts since: a wide 6th in July ALW comebacker and King's Bishop fiasco in August when last stumbling out of the gate. Good news is that the ship seems to be righted with long skein of hot, evenly-spaced a.m. efforts, and have a feeling Baffert would LOVE to start SA meet with a bang. Has run new tops twice off similar breaks, and am inclined to think he runs a corker.
12. NINETY FINE (CA) 115 (Santiago/M. Stute) 20-1: Yet another "nice" Cal-bred that has fashioned a bankroll without winning much. Reformed claimer was wide throughout good Cal Cup Sprint try before settling for 4th less than two lengths back, and willing to bet Stute thought of this spot immediately. Has hovered around top three of last four tries, and extra furlong here might help provide breakthrough in graded stake debut. Not the nuttiest slice in this wacky fruitcake...
1a. (POE) OSIDY (KY) 117 (Solis/Mandella) 4-1: Mandella tries graded stakes-placed turfer on the main, and Storm Cat son has shown signs of liking the idea in his morning jaunts. Has had a tendency to dwell from the gate which has led to attempts to rally unsuccessfully at longer distances. Can't dawdle here though, so Solis has to have him ready. Prefer his chances for share to ownership entrymate.
14. WILKO (KY) 115 (Nakatani/C. Dollase) 6-1: '04 BC Juvenile hero still trying to duplicate that effort 14 months later after series of foot issues resulted in fits and starts kind of year. Came within 7 of Giacomo in the Derby when 6th before wheels came off in Baltimore two weeks later. Returned to fray just two weeks ago in Larkspur third, and has run well on short rest before. Wide post shouldn't matter to a deep closer, but Corey has little room for error with Awesome Again son in huge field and at short price.
SELECTIONS: (Swing for the fences... This event is a TOTAL crapshoot..)
1. NINETY FINE (20-1): Taking stab with swiftest late runner
2. SHAMOAN (30-1): Won't be 30-1; Harty has him cranked
3. UNBRIDLED ENERGY (8-1): Capable if ready, trip should suit
4. ATTILA'S STORM (5-2): Too much adversity to embrace at 5-2
5. JACK'S WILD (15-1): Even off bounce, could hit board
By Steve Byk
DerbyTrail.com
Santa Anita, nestled spectacularly at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains, kicks off four months of premium racing today with the 54th running of the Malibu. This 7 furlong event, the last opportunity of the year for three year olds to capture a Gr. I stake, has recently been won by the likes of Rock Hard Ten and Southern Image as initial Strub Series forays towards Santa Anita Handicap glory.
The late season standard has always drawn big names to Arcadia, with Round Table, Native Diver, Buckpasser, Damascus, J.O. Tobin, Spectacular Bid, Ferdinand and Pleasant Tap dotting its list of winners. But the seven-eights challenge has also seen its share of shockers, topped by Affirmed's third place effort in 1979 behind Little Reb and Radar Ahead when the race was still open to 4 year olds. Run Man Run surprised Artax and Event of the Year in 1998, and Lord Grillo bested Silver Charm and Swiss Yodeler the year before that.
Common traits of recent Malibu winners is a win at the tricky seven-eights distance; success at Santa Anita, (or both), and a late-running style initiated from an outside post. When Debonair Joe upset this event in 2002 under Julie Krone at 27-1, he left from the 10 hole and had earned stripes at Arcadia in October when winning an expensive Optional Claimer at 6.5f. Southern Image had an injury-plagued 2003 campaign, but his 14-1 Malibu win under Victor Espinoza from the #10 was foreshadowed slightly by his February showing to Kafwain in Santa Anita's 7f San Vincente. Last year, Rock Hard Ten broke his maiden in February over the course and at the distance before rallying in the Malibu at 5-2 under Gary Stevens from the 9 slot.
The Beyer par for Malibus is 104, and the running times have averaged :22.1, :44.2, 1:08.4, 1:22.1. Additionally, the prices in the superfecta of the last three opening day features have included horses between 1.10-5.00, 9.00-14.00, 16.00-24.00 and 27.00-34.00 each time. Finally, a generous sprinkling of horses with running styles from pacesetter to stone closer have been sprinkled in each of the top four finishers of those previous editions.
An added note of interest about this year's Santa Anita meet in general comes from TrackMaster handicapper Rick Needham. Needham reports that Magna officials brought in Eastern-based track superintendents to help the Santa Anita crew deepen the traditionally hard-packed SoCal surface. Apparently, the SA main has been heavily harrowed and deeply brushed since the Oak Tree meet in the fall, with a new "cushiony" top that has met with widespread trainer approval. (This doesn't mean that classic "cheap California speed" won't still dominate at Santa Anita, but it is information that hadn't otherwise come to light and could be important.)
All of this makes for an outstanding wagering race in which no entrant should be totally discounted for inclusion in exotic tickets.
SA 8th (6:52 EST): 54th MALIBU, Gr. I, $250,000, 7f, 3 year old colts
2. THOR'S ECHO (CA) 121 (Espinoza/O'Neill) 6-1: One of 3 here from O'Neill, son of '97 Malibu show pony Swiss Yodeler has wrung up half mill this annum from Sunland to Hoosier to Prarie Meadows. Won restricted Real Good Deal this trip at Del Mar, and broke maiden this oval versus Cali kin. Fits on figures, but provides little value with frontrunning style and burdensome rail start.
1. (POE) GREELEY'S GALAXY (KY) 121 (Kent D/W. Stute) 4-1: Common ownership (B. W. Hughes) entry with Mandella's Osidy, IL Derby hero returns to action after rush job failures in spring classics. Son of Mr. Greeley totes string of solid works for return, and elder Stute has been better lately with extended break runners. Fast enough if ready, but doubting this is the intended target for red that cleared conditions here last Feb/Mar.
3. YES HE'S A PISTOL (FL) 115 (Douglas/O'Neill) 20-1: Trainer has filled bottom of recent Malibu gimmicks with horses like this, but Yes It's True chestnut was empty when wide at Hastings (Gr. III BC Derby) at 5-2, and couldn't get by Chips Are Down in restricted Bien Bien when last seen. Needs career best for board visit.
4. ATTILA'S STORM (KY) 119 (PVal/Schosberg) 5-2: Became one of our favorites in training quickly this fall when he delivered as promised in BC Sprint when 4th by 3 at 45-1. Barry Schwartz private purchase in the hands of good guy Schosberg who says this Forest Wildcat bay is best he's had since Affirmed Success. Trip west, added panel and pace pressure from the bell all cause for concern at low price, but bay is likely the best horse here and demands respect.
5. SHAMOAN (IRE) 119 (Valdivia/Harty) 30-1: Grass-bred gelding proved out as better dirt runner with IA Derby win, LS and WVa Derby near misses while amassing $300k bankroll so far this year. Figs jumped on the main, and Harty clearly had this event in mind when he benched Monashee Mountain chestnut in September. Has drilled beautifully, (trainer 26% with 60-180 layoffs), and this guy paired up to strong Thoro-Graph top (2) last time he took this type of vacation. At 30-1 with stalking style that fits race flow, it would be crazy not to use him.
6. PROUD TOWER TOO (CA) 119 (Cohen/Gonzalez) 20-1: Nice looking bay Cal-bred has consistently been speed of the speed versus lesser, and wired restricted company thrice under hustlers PVal, TBaze and Cohen. Those efforts, including October ALW this trip and strip, are good enough for check today, but worried about bounce off pair-up to top in last.
7. UNBRIDLED ENERGY (KY) 117 (Gomez/R. Mandella) 8-1: Grey owns pattern of typically fast and unsound Unbridled's Song offspring, but has been with CA ace conditioner for a while and hasn't missed any morning work. Note that last three a.m. efforts were certainly in company with barnmate Osidy, who outworked this Woodbine Gr. III winner slightly last Tuesday. Hot riding Gomez had choice of several here, so fact that he takes reins makes him dangerous in our minds. Should sit good stalking trip drafting those lined up inside him.
8. JACK'S WILD (CA) 115 (John/Gutierrez) 15-1: Deep closing Cal-bred just missed to Proud Tower in the On Trust last when wide rally fell a neck short. Gelding has shown fine, steady development this year, lowering top figs without significant regression demonstrating good horsemanship from Gutierrez. Picks tough spot for graded stakes debut, but seems to usually run his race and can't see why he isn't worth using underneath.
9. ALEXANDERSRUN (FL) 115 (Pedroza/Stein) 30-1: Sweetsouthernsaint gelding now in hands of Stein after good early exploits for Kimmel and Emerald Downs heroics recently for McCanna. Chestnut has tactical foot, a plus here, and good sunrise semesters as well. Hasn't run fast enough to star in this cast, but appears an interesting, healthy horse that could blossom at 4.
10. DILIGENT PROSPECT (FL) 115 (Court/O'Neill) 10-1: '05 Derby buzz horse off juvy exploits has been limited to pair of soph starts so far giving him similar look as Southern Image. Owns muddy SA-7f win from a year ago, but appears up against it on several fronts today.
11. FUSAICHI ROCK STAR (FL) 117 (Fujita/Baffert) 20-1: Baffert-Sekiguchi grey opened year with San Vincente (Gr. II, SA-7f) win but has made only two starts since: a wide 6th in July ALW comebacker and King's Bishop fiasco in August when last stumbling out of the gate. Good news is that the ship seems to be righted with long skein of hot, evenly-spaced a.m. efforts, and have a feeling Baffert would LOVE to start SA meet with a bang. Has run new tops twice off similar breaks, and am inclined to think he runs a corker.
12. NINETY FINE (CA) 115 (Santiago/M. Stute) 20-1: Yet another "nice" Cal-bred that has fashioned a bankroll without winning much. Reformed claimer was wide throughout good Cal Cup Sprint try before settling for 4th less than two lengths back, and willing to bet Stute thought of this spot immediately. Has hovered around top three of last four tries, and extra furlong here might help provide breakthrough in graded stake debut. Not the nuttiest slice in this wacky fruitcake...
1a. (POE) OSIDY (KY) 117 (Solis/Mandella) 4-1: Mandella tries graded stakes-placed turfer on the main, and Storm Cat son has shown signs of liking the idea in his morning jaunts. Has had a tendency to dwell from the gate which has led to attempts to rally unsuccessfully at longer distances. Can't dawdle here though, so Solis has to have him ready. Prefer his chances for share to ownership entrymate.
14. WILKO (KY) 115 (Nakatani/C. Dollase) 6-1: '04 BC Juvenile hero still trying to duplicate that effort 14 months later after series of foot issues resulted in fits and starts kind of year. Came within 7 of Giacomo in the Derby when 6th before wheels came off in Baltimore two weeks later. Returned to fray just two weeks ago in Larkspur third, and has run well on short rest before. Wide post shouldn't matter to a deep closer, but Corey has little room for error with Awesome Again son in huge field and at short price.
SELECTIONS: (Swing for the fences... This event is a TOTAL crapshoot..)
1. NINETY FINE (20-1): Taking stab with swiftest late runner
2. SHAMOAN (30-1): Won't be 30-1; Harty has him cranked
3. UNBRIDLED ENERGY (8-1): Capable if ready, trip should suit
4. ATTILA'S STORM (5-2): Too much adversity to embrace at 5-2
5. JACK'S WILD (15-1): Even off bounce, could hit board