Other than speed and pace

[kitts]

I am retired now and will be playing horses for profit maybe. This year my ROI on win bets (I pretty much am win bets only on older sprinters) was .94 meaning I lost 6% which is not humiliating but not what I want nor as good as I have done in many past years. I can get by on my Old Guys Stipend so I don't have to make a living off the horses.

Now, I think the "public" is very much "speed and pace" oriented and the software I use is also to a lesser extent. I am trying to find something the public is not as into and I am researching my options.

Trainer stats-I can subscribe to Ed Bain who does well with them or I can download the Formulator 4 version of the DRF and create my own highly detailed and specific stats. Or note them in DRF.

Workouts-I can subscribe to DeJulio or BRIS (formerly Selvin) for these. I did so for some time in California (they were from Bob Selvin then) and they pretty much paid for themselves back in the '80s.

Pedigree-Helpful but I doubt its profitability as a major factor. If a person (like me for instance) did not bet 2YO races and went on to avoid the 3YO only races as well would probably have little use for sire stats except, maybe,for grass.

"90 second handicapping"-Introduced to me at two seminars. The exercise was to scan the DRF and make a decision in 90 seconds. I was surpised at how well experienced handicappers did with this, including me.

Betting Analyst influenced-Profitable tracks this year were Hollywood Park, Bay Meadows, Golden Gate, Tampa Bay, Turf Paradise,and Aqueduct Inner Track. On turf races I only did well at HOL. The other tracks I did well in sprints (not in routes.) Does this mean I should not play unprofitable tracks? And not play routes? I continue to do well as I have for years with the cheaper claimers.

Basically, I would appreciate comments on alternatives to "speed and pace." Thanks.

[JustRalph]

Form ? or maybe more accurately...........returning to form?

[dav4463]

Declining form with a needed class drop. Improving horses with a class rise.

[toetoe]

I was about to say form, also. I take it the majority of your bets will be single-race, i. e., WPS, Ex., etc.?

[Light]

Many horses with the top speed and or pace figures pay double digits. Is your goal to use something obscure for the sake of being different or would profitably playing overlaid top speed and figure horses be too cliche?

[shanta]

Basically, I would appreciate comments on alternatives to "speed and pace." Thanks.

My advice would be to couple positive trainer moves into exactas using the early/late or "opposites attract" way of structuring tickets.

That would restrict plays to positive expectancy on the trainer end and at the same time put u in a favorable position to hit exactas in these races u look to go into.


Merry Christmas to you and yours

Richie :)

[Tom]

Quinn's Conditions approach to class. Still get many, many good prices on horses that fit established patterns.

Crammer's anti-hanciapping ideas - the guy uses things I never heard of. Definatley not what the crowd is looking at.

And .94 roi - you did better than Ford and GM! :D

[michiken]

One of the unexplored methods that I use is Counter Energy. Most programs can identify the early pace and highest speed figs. My program is flexible in that it allows me to see pace and identify this type of horse.

The attached image shows an abbreviated race from Turfway on 12/23 (PA needs to increase the posting limit file size so I can show the whole race). The 8 horse was ranked 4th in ability as denoted by the blue arrow. His counter energy rating was tops of the early contenders. He wins paying $40.00. The other counter energy horse was the 5 (not shown and was low ranked in ability). He ran second keying a $269.20 exacta with the 8.

Of course all races are not as easy as this but when these types present themselves, you can crush.

Note: The 10 was bet down to 2.5-1 and the 3 was bet down to 8.5-1. The key was to Identify the cheap speed using CE.

[Jeff P]

Body Language is one area where I've really been able to improve my game. I got interested in it about 5 years ago after reading a copy of "The Body Language of Horses" by Bonnie Ledbetter. Since then I've really made the effort to note both positives and negatives in the post parade and pre race warmups. I've even gone so far as to consistently bet one full card a week off of track video - no past performances or data of any kind until AFTER bets based on body language alone have been made. Like anything else it takes time to learn. But put in the time and you'll eventually become surprisingly accurate in your assessment of the meaning behind what a horse is saying with its body language. There is something to it.

Once you learn what to look for you can incorporate it back into your regular handicapping. I avoid a lot of losing tickets simply by passing on plays I otherwise would have made had I not noticed the way the horse was acting prior to the race. Every now and then a horse will prove me wrong. But more and more I'm finding that my body language assessment is right rather than wrong.

-jp

.

[Overlay]

How about some combined measure of class and consistency, such as through manipulation of starts/earnings data, as long as you can take into account the artificial inflation of race purses from "state-bred" programs and slots revenue?

[JustRalph]

One of the unexplored methods that I use is Counter Energy. Most programs can identify the early pace and highest speed figs. My program is flexible in that it allows me to see pace and identify this type of horse.


a definition of "counter energy" please?

[46zilzal]

can find that same race, different ways
Winning Time: 1:16.83
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Rick and Funny Rodney A. Prescott 40.00 15.80 6.80
5 Triflin Woman Perry Wayne Ouzts 4.00 3.00
10 Ghost Harbor Lori A. Wydick 3.20
Also ran: 7 - Rose Red , 4 - Marqita , 2 - Forever American , 3 - Miss Peggy , 1 - Wills Easy , 6 - Slew Squirt , 11 - Zibeline
Scratched horses: Dart Global

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$2 Exacta 8-5 269.20
$2 Superfecta 8-5-10-7 18,508.60
$2 Trifecta 8-5-10 1,642.60

[46zilzal]

a definition of "counter energy" please?

if the race usually goes to the front end (i.e. most sprints run early/presser) contra-energy would be a horse that distributes energy LATER , i.e. a sustained/presser.....CONTRA to the natural energy pattern for the distance/surface

[douglasw32]

This may be considered in the "pace" catagory, but not in the sense of a Pace Number....I find alot by looking at who needs to lead, only wire to wire wins and if there are more than one look to pressers or if there are a ton of those the closers.

I guess a Running Style match-up of sorts, it is highly subjective but "can" be seen by looking at the recent running lines.

[kitts]

Thanks for some interesting ideas. I left something out of my first post. I still like to eliminate non-contenders before doing any numbers. Here is where I evaluate class, form and condition. I still like to have a some idea of the speed and pace numbers since that helps anticipate the public's reaction. I do appreciate other thoughts. I've been at this long enough to maybe try to unlearn some things.

[Overlay]

Thanks for some interesting ideas. I left something out of my first post. I still like to eliminate non-contenders before doing any numbers. Here is where I evaluate class, form and condition. I still like to have a some idea of the speed and pace numbers since that helps anticipate the public's reaction. I do appreciate other thoughts. I've been at this long enough to maybe try to unlearn some things.

I'm sure the elimination step you employ saves time, especially if the procedure for assigning speed or pace numbers to your remaining contenders is fairly time- or labor-intensive. And perhaps your records indicate that whatever possible winners or prices you miss as a result of your eliminations would not justify the amount of time it would take to do a complete analysis of all the horses in a field. Do you ever employ any means of evaluating whether horses that you do not consider to be contenders might be worth a wager, even at long odds? Or do you just totally write off those horses and compensate by the prices or the win percentage on those horses among your contenders that the public overlooks or undervalues?

[JustRalph]

if the race usually goes to the front end (i.e. most sprints run early/presser) contra-energy would be a horse that distributes energy LATER , i.e. a sustained/presser.....CONTRA to the natural energy pattern for the distance/surface

Thank you.............

[kitts]

I am comfortable with my elimination process. Over the years. I find the winner in those top 5 horses over 80% of the time. My software calculates "numbers" on all horses, even the eliminated ones and this sometimes uncovers a "goodie." My 2005 ROI of .94 was based on about a 16% hit rate so I need horses at 5/1 or better. At least, that's the plan.

[Tom]

Ralph, the contra energy horse was a key palce horse for Sartin - he argued that the horse second most likely to win was not the horse most likely to place.

In trifecta races, this was the horse to use in first and third with contra energy in place.

In exactas, I still pay attention to this idea. The place horse is often a horse TI throw out as a win contender. Once I grasped idea, and stopped boxing my top two horses, I started hitting a lot more exactas.

At first, I thought the contra horses was a South American shipper!:rolleyes:

[JustRalph]

Ralph, the contra energy horse was a key palce horse for Sartin - he argued that the horse second most likely to win was not the horse most likely to place.

In trifecta races, this was the horse to use in first and third with contra energy in place.

In exactas, I still pay attention to this idea. The place horse is often a horse TI throw out as a win contender. Once I grasped idea, and stopped boxing my top two horses, I started hitting a lot more exactas.

At first, I thought the contra horses was a South American shipper!:rolleyes:

Thanks Tom. That was very enlightening. I see how the theory works now. Very interesting...........you got me thinking now..........about exacta's I have missed..........

[twindouble]

if the race usually goes to the front end (i.e. most sprints run early/presser) contra-energy would be a horse that distributes energy LATER , i.e. a sustained/presser.....CONTRA to the natural energy pattern for the distance/surface

That horse is a freaking Bull dog, a little to classy for the compitition. Why give it another name? Hot dogs come in diffent sizes, a different name is understandable. I'm going to dazzle everyone on at the track next time I go telling them I'm betting a "contra horse," they will think its breeding anyway. :lol:

[michiken]

Contra / Counter / Contour / Convex / Contraband or Convoluted... doesn't matter what it is called... It's how you use it!

It's nice to get a $40 winner! :cool:

[46zilzal]

Ralph, the contra energy horse was a key palce horse for Sartin - he argued that the horse second most likely to win was not the horse most likely to place.

In trifecta races, this was the horse to use in first and third with contra energy in place.

In exactas, I still pay attention to this idea. The place horse is often a horse TI throw out as a win contender. Once I grasped idea, and stopped boxing my top two horses, I started hitting a lot more exactas.

At first, I thought the contra horses was a South American shipers
I fashion most of my tri bets on the SPLITZACTA principle: the most obvious winners usualy run first and third with the contra in between. happens the other way too: if sustained is the standard for a route , early/pressers often run second as the contra horse.