Dick Schmidt-Question about TPR

[shoelessjoe]

Dick,I think I heard that one point of the TPR numbers equals one length is this correct?Also do you think these ratings still hold up with today's racing and is there anything you would do different now then when they first came out.Im now using Synergism 3 and the TPR ratings are in there that's why Im asking this.Thanks,Shoeless

[Dick Schmidt]

Joe,


One point of TPR ratings equals one point. Since horses are constantly decelerating from a spot about an eighth of a mile into a race to the finish, it is just about impossible to create any number that accurately reflects a length. Just call them points and use them.

Yes, they are as accurate and effective as ever. Since almost no one is willing to do the work required to use TPR or any other speed/pace method, they continue to tick along. I just got a Christmas card from an old user who is $60,000 up for the year on bets of $20 a race. They work, but know that he earned this money, he didn't find it laying there waiting for him.

As for Synergism 3, dump it and upgrade to Syn 6. Much more accurate and you can download the races. I really like the adjustments that Syn 6 uses, based on Jim Cramer's excellent speed ratings and track to track adjustments. A true professional level tool.

Dick

In Theory there is no difference between practice and theory.
In Practice, there is.

[traynor]

Dick Schmidt wrote: <As for Synergism 3, dump it and upgrade to Syn 6. Much more accurate and you can download the races. I really like the adjustments that Syn 6 uses, based on Jim Cramer's excellent speed ratings and track to track adjustments. A true professional level tool.>

Question, please. How are pace lines selected in syn 6? Some kind of decision matrix, or selected as appropriate, or some combination?
Good Luck

[shoelessjoe]

Dick,Thanks for taking the time to answer that for me.Joe

[JohnGalt1]

I also am having success using the method of making pace ratings from "Pace Makes the Race"

One change I made in the method which works for me is to downgrade the Final Fraction rating for closers. I got this from William L. Scott's "Total Victory at the Track."

Example--10 horse field--Horse A (Lengths back) 2 1
.45 1.10
Horse B 12 1
.45 1.10

They ran the same fast race, but B had to pass many horses, so the question was are the gained lengths from acceleration or because the horses in front are tiring?

My ratings for these horses are A--- 93 86 for a TPR of 179
B--- 83 93 for a TPR of 176

The most likely chance B will beat A today are if B has more back class, the track is favoring closers, or there is horse C and D that look like this--
C--- 95 79 174
D--- 97 70 167
where A needs the lead. (although this A did gain some ground so it may not pertain to this race.)

The chart, modified from the Scott book I use to punish closers:

Gain in Lengths
1-4 3/4 full credit
5-6 3/4 5
7-8 3/4 6
9-10 3/4 7
11-12 3/4 8
13- 14/34 9
15 and up 10


Another reason I want to punish closers is they tend to have traffic trouble and tend for finish in the bottom of the trifectas rather than win.

Dick Schmitt, thanks for being part of the Sartin book. I still perform the pace ratings with pen and paper and have the laminated charts I ordered propped up on my desk along with my charts from Cynthia's par ratings, which I find much more accurate than the 3 year track records you used in the book.

I also use Scott's Performance Class Ratings so my handicapping is made up of 3 main criteria. PCR TPR, and Form.

Thanks again Dick and for all the advice and tidbits of knowledge shared here.

I don't post often, but read this board at least twice a week.

[garyoz]

Question, please. How are pace lines selected in syn 6? Some kind of decision matrix, or selected as appropriate, or some combination?
Good Luck


It is a great program, but in my experience (used it profitably for 3 years) it is best when using manual selection. You really need to get your head into the race. You can also use an automatic choice selector which consists of a user defined Choice Selection Mode or an Advanced Choice Selection mode. With the first, you can either use a default model that comes with the program or select the values/variable yourself. The Advanced Choice Selection mode is tied to the decision models built from results at the track you are playing (as I recall). Still no subsitute for rolling up your sleeves and picking the pacelines yourself (IMHO).

I'm just playing recreationally now as a weekend warrior because of work commitments, so I'm messing around with other (cheaper) software that doesn't have the monthly download requirement.

[boxcar]

So, here we are in the 21st Century -- In the Information Age -- The Age of Fast PCs -- and the "black box" program that would make mincemeat out of every kind number imaginable hasn't been invented, yet? (Have I got this right?) To get the best results from any high-powered, hoidy toidy program (read: sophisticated and, therefore, no offense intended), one must exercise a certain degree of personal judgment -- judgment that is generated from his own onboard "computer".

I've long been curious about something, and so I direct this question to all the more accomplished users of these programs, whether it be All Ways, HTR, Synergism, etc.: What is your average win mutuel, using the program of your choice?

Boxcar
P.S. Merry Christmas, Everyone!

[shanta]

[QUOTE=boxcar] What is your average win mutuel, using the program of your choice?

My last 40 twenty race cycles ( 800 races)

$ 14.70

Merry Christmas
Richie

[garyoz]

So, here we are in the 21st Century -- In the Information Age -- The Age of Fast PCs -- and the "black box" program that would make mincemeat out of every kind number imaginable hasn't been invented, yet? (Have I got this right?) To get the best results from any high-powered, hoidy toidy program (read: sophisticated and, therefore, no offense intended), one must exercise a certain degree of personal judgment -- judgment that is generated from his own onboard "computer".

Paceline selection is an art not a science. This is particularly true if you want to find angles that lead to overlays. Synergism has a really nice interface for looking at pacelines and potentially coming up with unique ways of looking at a horse and race. It isn't the standard best of last 3, best 2 of last 3, or last race approach. Besides, this is merely my experience--maybe others found the automated approach better.

In terms of average "win" mutual you should include an average Pick-4 (or other gimmick) payouts. That is what makes or breaks my year. Winning percentage usually isn't as important as how you leverage the winning overlays that you pick.

[boxcar]

My last 40 twenty race cycles ( 800 races)

$ 14.70

Merry Christmas
Richie

Nice average! What program are you using?

Boxcar

[shanta]

Nice average! What program are you using?

Boxcar

Hi Boxcar,
It is a program that is NOT available comercially. It is Sartin based as far as most readouts but has been brought up to the 21st Century meaning models, wager tracking, isolating profitable classes and distances etc are ALL done in program.

It is NOT a black box at all. I have to choose pacelines to enter and on a 9 race card it will take me an hour at least. I have some aids within the program to help with this BUT it still requires a lot of work and using the old "human computer" or our brain.

I really have no clue what a "black box" is although one might exist. I work one sometimes 2 tracks a day and that's it for me.

I gotta work my ass off to even have a chance in this game. lol

Stay cool
Richie

[traynor]

garyoz wrote: <It is a great program, but in my experience (used it profitably for 3 years) it is best when using manual selection. You really need to get your head into the race. You can also use an automatic choice selector which consists of a user defined Choice Selection Mode or an Advanced Choice Selection mode. With the first, you can either use a default model that comes with the program or select the values/variable yourself. The Advanced Choice Selection mode is tied to the decision models built from results at the track you are playing (as I recall). Still no subsitute for rolling up your sleeves and picking the pacelines yourself (IMHO).>

Thanks for the information. If I select pace lines, is there a relatively simple provision to allow this? Something on the order of a screen display of last (however many) races of the particular entry from a database, then highlight or check or whatever to select pace lines?

It sounds like a great program, but I am skeptical of automated pace line selection.
Good Luck

[Lefty]

Traynor, there's a trial. You have to use past races but you can see how to pick pl's and how all the ratings work.
http://synergism-sdp.com/

[garyoz]

garyoz wrote: < If I select pace lines, is there a relatively simple rovision to allow this? Something on the order of a screen display of last (however many) races of the particular entry from a database, then highlight or check or whatever to select pace lines?

It sounds like a great program, but I am skeptical of automated pace line selection.
Good Luck

It is easy to use and very intuitive. I agree with you on the skepticism of automated paceline selection. Although, I remember, a few years back that Ken Massa at HTR had a contest between his automatic paceline method and individuals selecting pacelines, and he did very well. Maybe the HTR regulars remember know more about that. Jeez...this thread probably belongs in the Handicapping Software forum.

[Tom]

The automatic paceline selector outperformed all of us. We used one factor - the velocity rating - and nobody could beat the program. Many of the competitors are proven contest winners/placers/pros.

[shoelessjoe]

How would you apply these TPR to this 7 fur race at Charles Town?Will the race setup early or late?Who would you bet to win?Who would you play in exacta's?Sorry it came out crooked my computer skills suck.Shoeless

HORSE EPR FFR TPR DIFF

FLY 76 81 157 5

INTUIT 76 80 156 4

MAN 81 72 153 -9

CITY 80 73 153 -7

MAG 74 79 153 5

UNISON 78 75 153 -3

[Speed Figure]

How would you apply these TPR to this 7 fur race at Charles Town?Will the race setup early or late?Who would you bet to win?Who would you play in exacta's?Sorry it came out crooked my computer skills suck.Shoeless
HORSE EPR FFR TPR DIFF

FLY 76 81 157 5

INTUIT 76 80 156 4

MAN 81 72 153 -9

CITY 80 73 153 -7

MAG 74 79 153 5

UNISON 78 75 153 -3

Just had to line this up.

[JulieKrone]

You need to supply the running styles, or are those minus numbers supposed to signify that? As well first fraction and turn time are needed, both to split differences & to gauge whether a closer is within striking range, or if a front runner will just draw away early.

[Dick Schmidt]

About how Synergism chooses pace lines:


First off, Synergism downloads 10 back lines for each horse from HDW. You can view a vast array of data from each paceline, including much that is not available in the Racing Form or from any other source. The program has a basic automatic paceline picker that gives you just a few choices. Stuff like last line, last line at distance structure, last line on same surface etc.

I have the program set to last line at distance and surface, but make many changes manually. The entire PP is displayed, showing the numbers you want to use and changing pacelines takes just the click of a mouse. I find that having all 10 TPR numbers displayed in a column makes form cycles easy and leads me to the "right" paceline most of the time.

Guys, this program is FREE and comes with a very complete manual. Download it and do a LITTLE work yourself. Bob provides enough data to get a real good feel for the program. I love the way the program makes adjustments; it is based on very accurate variants and track-to-track adjustments that HDW provides. Other than using better data than the Racing Form, it follows the exact procedure described in the book. Deviate from that if you must (some people just have to tinker) but don't blame us if the numbers don't work as well.

Dick

Life is simpler when you plow around the stump.

[DJofSD]

Shoeless - why is Easy Cruiser not in your mix? Is he scratched? Or are Woodbine shippers poor performers at CTX?

[Lefty]

shoeless, JK is right. You need to assess running styles to fig out e-l. If you're gonna use TPR you need to read either ver of Pace Makes The Race.

JK, TPR does not use either TT or 1st fr.

[JulieKrone]

I just personally need to see the first two individual fractions also. Especially when the ratings are bunched up.

[shoelessjoe]

Thanks for your replies I will read the book .As far as Easy Cruiser goes he couldnt win a 8000 claimer at Woodbine so I dont think he can win a 25,000 claimer at CT.We were having this discussion somewhere else about putting in horses that you dont believe can win the race.My feeling is it just screws up the readouts putting them in.What do you others think?SpeedFigure thanks for lining up that for me.Shoeless

[Lefty]

shoeless, Doc Sartin often advocated only putting in the contenders in a race. He said putting in non-contenders only added "noise" to the readouts. You did the right thing.

[Vegas711]

About how Synergism chooses pace lines:


Guys, this program is FREE and comes with a very complete manual. Download it and do a LITTLE work yourself. Dick

Life is simpler when you plow around the stump.

I checked the download price it is 139.00 per month. WoW, thats a lot of money for a months worth of data. Even if its a good service before you place your first wager every month you are $ 139.00 in the hole. If you are going to use this service you better play almost every day.For weekend only players this is way too much too spend.
Why don't they offer something like a $ 1.50 per track download like Postime or a $ 1.00 per track download fee like bris. Most players I would think are like me, play only weekends 2 tracks each day.Until they do I will Pass.

[Vegas711]

Ok, I took the bait and checked out their web site, they do have a lot more info than I thought they did and the program does look like it is a very professionally done product. It looks like it has more bells and whistles than a locomotive.If you go this route then it only makes sence that you download every file they offer so that you get your moneys worth.


My Question concerns the result charts, currently I pay $75 per month for unlimited charts from postime. They are comma delimited so they can be downloaded into a customized program. What are the charts like? Are they sented in a comma delimited format so that the user can put them in their own program as well as use them with Snyergy? What info is in their charts?

[highnote]

So, here we are in the 21st Century -- In the Information Age -- The Age of Fast PCs -- and the "black box" program that would make mincemeat out of every kind number imaginable hasn't been invented, yet? (Have I got this right?) To get the best results from any high-powered, hoidy toidy program (read: sophisticated and, therefore, no offense intended), one must exercise a certain degree of personal judgment -- judgment that is generated from his own onboard "computer".

I've long been curious about something, and so I direct this question to all the more accomplished users of these programs, whether it be All Ways, HTR, Synergism, etc.: What is your average win mutuel, using the program of your choice?

Boxcar
P.S. Merry Christmas, Everyone!

An employee from BRIS once told me, the only difference between their computerized handicapping programs is that, "The better ones take longer to figure out that they don't work."

I hope he was joking.

[bobsbet]

JGLT1

Would like to know where to find Scotts Performance Class Ratings.

Thanks

[46zilzal]

shoeless, Doc Sartin often advocated only putting in the contenders in a race. He said putting in non-contenders only added "noise" to the readouts. You did the right thing.
Doesn't make any difference to later programs...

[DJofSD]

Seemed like a contender to me. Become the place horse.

[First_Place]

46zilzal said:

"Doesn't make any difference to later programs..."

I disagree. It has been my experience that it still does.

FP

[Achilles]

Bobs,

Google on "Fast Fred Professional" and do a search on this board. There was a recent thread here where some others mentioned other programs which produce the ratings.

[Tom]

http://www.posttimedaily.com/software/ffpro/ffpro.php


http://www.posttimedaily.com/software/trs/trs.php

http://horseracingusa.com/WATT.html <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

[highnote]

Interesting. Never seen that one. Good idea. Might save a lot of work.

[garyoz]

I've tried Fast Fred. IMHO the program leaves alot to be desired both in terms of reliability of the output (e.g., consistency of measurements), having alot of uncomputed figures in the pacelines, and general usability. It is a lower cost alternative. But, if that is the objective, could Multicaps ( I shudder to recommend Bris Software) be of any use? I think they sum a TPR out of the Bris data.

[JohnGalt1]

Bobsbet,

Performance Class Ratings were developed by William L. Scott and found in his book "Total Victory at the Track."

I have modified his method by not including the second call in my PCR figure because I first list horses by their running styles--E, EP, P, S.

I also created a class comparison chart which is needed to adjust the figure. I realize every track is different classwise, but the way the PCR is used, a small discrepancy isn't that important, since you are usually only interested in the top three horses, and can include the forth highest number if within about 10%. That's the way I do it.

I made the chart to speed up the process and eliminate guesswork. My chart rates a $10 K open claimer as equal to a $5 Alw, $16 K MSW, 50K Mcl, etc. I adjust for statebred and NW2L. My adjustment for a 10K NW2L makes that race equivelant to a $4 open claimer.

PCR is less useful in maiden races because they either haven't raced enough or haven't developed their class, and they are more valuable in routes and turf races.

I mentioned I make the pace figures from "Pace makes the Race" because Scott's speed ratings are screwy, more difficult to produce, and his ratings of sprint races when horses are now routing usually makes them faster than they are, so comparing them is unreliable.

My selection(s) are horses that are in the top three of PCR, TPR with no form defects. Pluses if late work out, high trainer pct. for race type, and horse's running style fits race.

I have win 6 pick sixes using these combined methods. I also skip many races. When I don't I lose. An example--A recent race had a horse very high in PCR and another horse was 5 lengths faster than all other horses. They were an entry. So that's who I bet and neither won. A race where no horse is in the top 3 of both columns is a race I either pass or hit the all button.

One day at Hoosier, of 12 races only 6 were playable, and all six horses won. In the Breeder's Cup this year only Saint Liam and Intercontinental were in the top three of both columns. And another day at Turf Paradise all six qualifiers lost and I lost $500 at that track.

I've had good and bad periods, but I look at the long term. And some of my losses are when I don't stick with what works.

I hope this answers your question.

[Longshot]

For those of you that have EquiSim 5.0 with FV it's a simple process to write a formula that will give you Hambleton's and Schmidt's EPR, FFR and TPR numbers.
If anyone with EquiSim would like I will send you the formulas or an FV already containing the numbers. Just send me a private message or post an email address .

[46zilzal]

46zilzal said:

"Doesn't make any difference to later programs..."

I disagree. It has been my experience that it still does.

FP
those are so out of balance that they remain non-entities even when they are there.

[Tom]

For those of you that have EquiSim 5.0 with FV it's a simple process to write a formula that will give you Hambleton's and Schmidt's EPR, FFR and TPR numbers.
If anyone with EquiSim would like I will send you the formulas or an FV already containing the numbers. Just send me a private message or post an email address .

You can write formulas using the BRIS/TSN pace and speed ratings?

[Longshot]

No Bris pace or speed figs needed for the formula just race fractions time.It will work just fine with DRF in a spreadsheet. Gets you a raw number no variant or track to track adjustment.

Sprint EPR

320-($ppHFract4/5)

Route EPR

445-($ppHFract6/5)

[Longshot]

Correction of formulas above. To late to edit.


Sprint EPR

320-(($ppHFract4/2)*10)

Route EPR

445-(($ppHFract6/2)*10)

Two days in the bed with the flu and my mind is working sideways

[Tom]

$pph = ??

[Holding Pattern]

Tom,

$ppHFract6 is the variable name used in ESROI 5 (Equisim) for the Horses (not the leaders) fractional time at the 6F point and thus $ppHFract4 is the horses 4 Furlong Fraction time

HP

[headhawg]

You can write formulas using the BRIS/TSN pace and speed ratings?
TekCapper and I have both written a PCR formula for Equisim v5. This link to the downloads is

http://thorotech.com/groupee/forums/a/tpc/f/532608406/m/2741070271

While there are certain limitations, Formula View is a great addition to a fine program. For instance, I don't think that TPR numbers could be created as there isn't a way that I know of to reference a chart of numbers from within ES unless it's already in a Bris/TSN data file. Someone creative might be able to come up with something close though.

[bobsbet]

Dick:

As a TPR user, your recent thread about a friend of yours who is ahead $60,000 for the year with $20.00 bets peaked my curiosity!! I am sure you will agree that is an outstanding accomplishment.

I wonder if your friend might be willing to share some of his incites regarding how he utilizes TPR. Techniques, guidelines etc. or perhaps analysis of a race(s).

Thanks

[Dick Schmidt]

Bob,

No, he won't. He thinks I'm an idiot to have written the book and let the cat out of the proverbial bag, though it taught him to use the system. He wouldn't even tell his brother what he was doing for several years.

Essentially he is playing mostly signal race exotics, exactas and trifectas mostly, with the occasional quinella thrown in when he thinks it may pay better than an exacta box. He plays about 40 races a day (when he can find them, more in the summer), thus is poking $8-900 a day through the windows. He works hard at it, plays 300+ days a year and cashes something in 30% of his races, showing a profit on around 20% (this means he "wins" the race but loses money about 10% of the time, not unusual for a rebate player). His overall ROI is just a taste over 24.5%, which includes a rebate that averages around 10% (it varies from track to track). Obviously he keeps detailed records.

This is how it's done, boys and girls. Hard work, long hours, steady application of a rational betting scheme and dedication. On the other hand, it sure beats punching a time clock.

Dick

When you hear hoof-beats, think horses, not zebras!

[Tom]

"This is how it's done, boys and girls. Hard work, long hours, steady application of a rational betting scheme and dedication. On the other hand, it sure beats punching a time clock."

I knew there was a catch somewhere! :mad:

[First_Place]

Dick Schmidt said:

"On the other hand, it sure beats punching a time clock."

Damn right! And getting paid only $8.5O/hr. (last gig I had)!!

FP

[shanta]

[QUOTE=Dick Schmidt]Essentially he is playing mostly signal race exotics, exactas and trifectas mostly, with the occasional quinella thrown in when he thinks it may pay better than an exacta box. He plays about 40 races a day (when he can find them, more in the summer), thus is poking $8-900 a day through the windows. He works hard at it, plays 300+ days a year and cashes something in 30% of his races, showing a profit on around 20% (this means he "wins" the race but loses money about 10% of the time, not unusual for a rebate player). His overall ROI is just a taste over 24.5%, which includes a rebate that averages around 10% (it varies from track to track). Obviously he keeps detailed records.



I spoke on the phone with a Syn 6 user last year. He lives in the Southern part of the country. This fella u decsribed sounds like the same fellow as far as betting patterns ( exactas trifectas etc). He has worked a couple of races before they ran with me and he is VERY impressive. He focuses on form cycle patterns of the TPR numbers similar to how u describe them Dick. He doesn't really focus on one paceline or one number.

Might be the same fellow u talk about here. If not well then there are MORE of them lol

Stay cool
Richie :)

[Lou G]

Please excuse my ignorance - what is a "signal race"? I did read PMTR many years ago but don't remember this term.

Thanks,
Lou G

[kingfin66]

I do believe that 'signal' was really intended to be 'single'. He is probably a speed typist who thinks even faster than he types!