Quickly Estimating Speed

[podonne]

Greetings All.

Long time reader, first time poster.

I'd like to see some dicussion around the best way to quickly estimate the speed of a horse going into a particular race. I've seen thousands (ok, not thousands, but many) different methods. I've settled on averaging the best of the last two races.

-Phil

P.S. I use estimated speed to eliminate obvious noncontenders. Slightly different focus than finding the fastest horse.

[kitts]

Wow. Adjusted first and second quarter, speed ratings, Quirin points, "eyeballing" pay for speed ratings--the list is quite long. I use projected speed which is dependent on my software so it is not all that quick.

[46zilzal]

for just about 26 years now, ONE factor stands out as the BEST estimate of speed: velocity to the 2nd call, period.

[twindouble]

for just about 26 years now, ONE factor stands out as the BEST estimate of speed: velocity to the 2nd call, period.

How do you measure one horse agains't another when it comes to velocity, taking into consideration, pace, bias, fractions, lost ground, checked twice, went wide or got a clean trip on the rail with no pressure coming from another track?


T.D.

[46zilzal]

How do you measure one horse agains't another when it comes to velocity, taking into consideration, pace, bias, fractions, lost ground, checked twice, went wide or got a clean trip on the rail with no pressure coming from another track?
T.D.
Don't need to make it complicated especially after I read Blink

[Fastracehorse]

Speed from the gate or overall ability??

fffastt

[46zilzal]

how would one measure the latter??

[bobsbet]

46zilzal

What is YOUR method of measuring velocity to the second call??

Thanks

Bobsbet

[46zilzal]

46zilzal
What is YOUR method of measuring velocity to the second call??


advanced Sartin programs with Trackmaster data files which work in the track variants

[DJofSD]

There's velocity and then there's velocity then there's things that are labeled velocity.

In physics, you'll find there's two: average and instantaneous. Instantaneous is what the speed would be if you could measure an infinitesimally small change of distance over an infinitesimally small change of time as the horse passes the 2nd call. Can't do that at the track (yet). Then there's average velocity which is what most folks are using and refering to. That is the speed at the 2nd call computed by dividing the distance traveled by the ellapsed time. Now, if the horse is the leader at the so called pace call then you're sitting pretty, if not, then you've got some adjusting to do.

Most older Sartin Advance programs give you the raw ENGEN numbers called either median or something similar. These are directly equivalent to the average velocity numbers as computed above. Anything else has been adjusted by some factor. This factor in the past was the pace of the race. It's unknown in more current programs coming from the current supporters of Doc Sartin.

[mcikey01]

Greetings All.

Long time reader, first time poster.

I'd like to see some dicussion around the best way to quickly estimate the speed of a horse going into a particular race. I've seen thousands (ok, not thousands, but many) different methods. I've settled on averaging the best of the last two races.

-Phil

P.S. I use estimated speed to eliminate obvious noncontenders. Slightly different focus than finding the fastest horse.

Try the following link to an old post which details Marc Cramer's take on Beyer Speed Figs and possible use as an elimination factor... http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=207810#post207810


( PA: This was the correct link to Cramer's article but it is no longer operational: http://www.gambleinparadise.com/articlex14.html (http://www.gambleinparadise.com/articlex14.html) . I am trying to respect your concerns about possible copyright violations )

[46zilzal]

always interesting to hear someone NOT versed in the Sartin methodology explaining it. remarkable

[Tom]

podonne - welcome to the board.

I assume you are talking about a horse's speed figure from your post. Did you mean average the best two of last three?

Good topic to talk about.

One way that is pretty handy is to use the best SF at a distance within 1/2 furlong of today's distance in the past 6 months. Another is to use best of last three, similar diatance and surface.
One that HTR uses is best last 90 days - we call it C90, and it should work with Beyers as well.

There are many others - I'll post more later, and I'm sure you'll get some good replies here.

[dav4463]

I look at each horse's Last Race Beyer...circle the top two in the field....then the Best Beyer in horse's last three races....circle the top two in the field......then look only at Beyers from races four through ten races back...circle the top 2 in the field......then circle the top two trainer jockey combos....any horse that gets a 1 or 2 ranking in any category is a preliminary contender. This eliminates half the field or more at times.

[michiken]

I am the camp of the last 2 races. Trying to go beyond this exhausts my case of beer..........................

[podonne]

Great link, mcikey01. Thanks Tom, Everyone.

An interesting question whether you want to know how fast a horse can run, versus how fast the horse will run.

I like using the best two of the last three because it supports a number of speed-theory ideas (anticipating a bounce, ignoring a bad race). The problem I've found with ignoring races run at different surfaces\distances is that you often won't get enough SFs in the recent past to make it work. Especially distances. Books often point out how much even a half furlong change in distance can destroy a horse.

I'd be interested in the rationale with using a single best figure versus an average of several. Unless, the idea is to get a good figure at the distance. Easier to get one than three.

[46zilzal]

bingo...people often mistake a horse (ability , form) for a performance..
I propose to think of horses like actors in a play: some nights they do well, other nights not so well. Same actor each play, different performance

[boxcar]

bingo...people often mistake a horse (ability , form) for a performance..
I propose to think of horses like actors in a play: some nights they do well, other nights not so well. Same actor each play, different performance

Yup, this is why horses take turns beating one another. It's all in the performance. (Which horse is most likely to demonstrate the most improvement today?)

Boxcar

[First_Place]

Boxcar said:

"Yup, this is why horses take turns beating one another."

Can anyone say Reversal Protocol?

Regards,

FP

[Lefty]

fp asks: Can anyone say Reversal Protocol?

____________________
Sartin said it first and he called it Tandem Race.

[First_Place]

Yes, true...and Mikey P. was part of Sartin's crew back then. I've never (yet) read Doc Sartin's Tandem Manual (hey, anyone out there have it?) but from what I've read in various horse racing forums*, Michael Pizzolla's Reversal Protocol is a li'l different.

Anyone know what the difference(s) are?

Regards,

FP

*http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/handicappingmagic/

[Fastracehorse]

how would one measure the latter??

I was thinking a speed figure.

You know - there is a commmon phrase: "carry one's speed".

fffastt

[46zilzal]

I was thinking a speed figure.

You know - there is a commmon phrase: "carry one's speed".

fffastt
that would require a DISTRIBUTION to understand, NOT just a single figure

[Fastracehorse]

that would require a DISTRIBUTION to understand, NOT just a single figure

I'm not much into 'distributing' speed figs proportinately. I like a nicely wrapped whole figure - but I do some simple internal adjustments - it conveniently includes early pace.

Most sprints are quickest at the first 1/4 anyhow - there is a de-acceleration in the splits as the race continues - so we generally know how the splits are going to be proportionately.

So, instead of measuring the first split numerically: I do it tactically - ie, where will the horse be relatively to the other horses at the 1/4. In this way, I can evaluate race-shape and pace pressure.

I used to be the guy that broke every race into their individual component times - but now I use a whole fig.

Being a strong backer of figures has furthered strengthened my belief in trainer intent. The aforementioned meaning that speed figures can be fickle - any good figure player will tell you that.

When you have a good angle - it's great to know when it is most and least effective.


fffastt