Calder - just a few minutes ago

[Lou G]

Was anyone else watching SuperTote for race 1? MAJOR off-track bucks came in on the #1 horse at about 4 minutes after post - the race ended up with two even-money horses on the board, the #1 finishing 2nd to the (very legit) favorite. Someone dropped a bundle...

Strange stuff.

[Jeff P]

Lou, I can't be 100 percent sure, but I think I might be at least partly responsible for all that late money on the #1 horse. :)

But not in the way you might expect.

In another thread Midnight posted this little tidbit.

snipPinnacle profiles each player. If a player wins an unusual amount of the time, relative to the odds of the horses played, the software flags that player for review by management. If the player is determined to be a "Net Winner", then the software will be programmed to dump all money bet by that player into the mutuel pools, plus all money bet by others involving horses he bets into the pools. snap


This got my attention because I've noticed lately that a lot of the horses below 5-1 that I play through them seem to be picking up a ton of groupie money.

I have a UDM that's really been deadly with Pletcher's routers. It has very few plays but those that it comes up with do win a very high percentage of their races. In R1 at CRC the #3 horse qualified as one of those Pletcher Routers.

WIth about 5 minutes to post my Pletcher Router was 3-5 while the #1 was 3-1. I was hesitant to play at 3-5 because that's just about break even for this particular UDM. But then I thought of what Midnight posted and thought I'd try a little experiment. I made a decent sized win bet on the #1 through Pinnacle. And then I made a much larger win bet on the #3 through YouBet. And it didn't take long for it to happen. I was elated when I saw all that late money come pouring in on the #1. I'm beginning to suspect there just might be a grain of truth to what Midnight posted.

-jp

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[chrisg]

Jeff, excuse my ignorance, what is a UDM? Thanks

[Jeff P]

UDM stands for User Defined Model. In JCapper terminology it's a spot play based on a set of rules created by the user.

-jp

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[alysheba88]

Interesting....

[The Judge]

Jeff P. Great move, now thats turning the odds in you favor.

[parlay]

There was a story today about the betting coo in OZ.
It was the same scam they used to try in Vegas when they weren't pari mutuel. Bet the obvious losers big on track, were you can move the odds at a minimal cost, and bet big into the bookies on the now long priced cinch!!
If you can move all the Pinnacle money on a horse you "like" into the mutual pool this can provide some very interesting scenarios.
If you hate a heavy favorite and can orchestrate the dumping of all that extra Pinny money into the pool you can create larger overlays on your
choice(s) at a minimal cost!!!

[shanta]

[QUOTE=Jeff P] I've noticed lately that a lot of the horses below 5-1 that I play through them seem to be picking up a ton of groupie money


To me this makes total sense.

If you are taking money from someone's pocket they are gonna see what u are doing and if they cant shut u down they will "hop on board" for the ride. I also believe "Rook" when he posts he is getting piggybacked on all these supers of his. How many thousands if not tens of thousands of dollars has this cost him??

Jeff what I would be interested in is your bet sizes for these plays. I understand privacy and all but if you are NOT betting say more than 100 dollar win bets on these guys and are still getting piggybacked what I don't understand is with ALL these other winners using Pinny where are their " groupies" ? If you are making SIZEABLE wagers in the multi hundred dollar per horse range then thats a totally different story in my opinion. Your bets would have to raise flags as u are puttin a hurtin on the powers that be. I am NOT looking for a number from you just explaining my thought process.

The other possibility is that Pinny is feeling it from winnerswho have flocked there for the "easy money". Maybe they have reached the point where the "ship has to be tightened up". Look at the posts about smaller tracks having bets cutoff several minutes before post. Some posts in sports area about ridiculously small sized limits being imposed. Reduced rebates on NYRA tracks etc etc

Richie

[sjk]

For Pinnacle it is a simple matter to handicap the customers and find out who is winning and on what sorts of bets. Since they have everyone's betting records there is no doubt that they know who has a long-term edge.

If a particular customer is only a $50 player because that is the level that his bankroll or temperament dictates but he is winning at 20% over a significant period of time I would expect them to calculate how much larger a piggy-back bet they could make that could also make a long-term return with pools sizes in mind.

They might be perfectly happy to bet 10x as much as the winning player knowing that the mutuel would go down 10% but which would maximize their outcome (after paying themselves a healthy rebate).

I cannot psosibly imagine them doing otherwise and I would think that any winning player that uses them is probably getting a significant haircut.

[Hosshead]

Jeff's interesting "experiment" can only work if you've been "tracked" as a winner.
However , it requires betting on a loser (with Pinnacle).
So there may be a (bet) balancing act required to use this "tactic" in the future.

[JustRalph]

Jeff's interesting "experiment" can only work if you've been "tracked" as a winner.
However , it requires betting on a loser (with Pinnacle).
So there may be a (bet) balancing act required to use this "tactic" in the future.

unless they are using a bot or simple computer application to analyze your bets. You may get flagged as a winner............and not be reviewed again for months? who knows.........

Great thread guys............

[shanta]

They might be perfectly happy to bet 10x as much as the winning player knowing that the mutuel would go down 10% but which would maximize their outcome (after paying themselves a healthy rebate).

I cannot possibly imagine them doing otherwise and I would think that any winning player that uses them is probably getting a significant haircut.

IF this is true then why bother with rebates? So you get 7% but lose 10% as a "fee" for playing there as a WINNER. In the case Jeff posted for those odds to be blasted like that this was much more than a 10% mutual change. MUCH more.

To me rebates are good for the small loss player overall or break even player. Then u are not gonna raise any brows and this 7% can put u in the good column.

For anyone actually making 15% ROI or more on the races ( no rebate) you are actually costing yourself money playing Pinny.

Richie

[Niko]

Does Bris, Youbet or any others do this? They don't have to or have the same incentive but someone internally could obviously benefit from it. In their case I think it's against their best interests because they're taking a cut.

One thing for Pinny that can be overlooked are the tax implications which helps to offset some play for some people.

[PaceAdvantage]

Like I've said in the past, anytime you place a bet where you are being tracked (and by tracked, I mean they have your name, address, social security number, or any other identifying data), you are subject to either a company policy which actively seeks out winners in order to try and piggyback your action, OR MORE LIKELY, a rogue employee with access to betting records.....

The rogue employee scenario is probably going to be the most common....who wouldn't be tempted?
That's the risk you take for betting convenience. It's either that or hike it out to the track or OTB.....

[sjk]

I would think that you would be more likely to have your bets tracked and copied at a track with a human teller than at xpressbet or youbet where one would presume that no human would see the bets and where I would expect some significant security measures to be in place.

I think the risk comes from the companies that shadow players as a matter of policy. I cannot imagine the USA based publicly traded doing this. Can you imagine Youbet explaining to the security analysts that they had a bad quarter but it was really all Jeff's fault becuase they had a lot of money riding on his success and it did not pan out.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would think that you would be more likely to have your bets tracked and copied at a track with a human teller than at xpressbet or youbet where one would presume that no human would see the bets and where I would expect some significant security measures to be in place.

Good point, but at least you can mix it up at the track....but I'm sure word would get around to the other tellers if you're good enough...lol

[Kitan]

I remember once this past year at Penn National there was a 90-1 shot that opened up with $9k to show.

It's not the same scenario as what this thread is based on, but the person(s) who put that much to show must have put A LOT on the fav through a bookie.

[JackS]

Watching the Super Tote the other day, the odds on the predictable favorite seemed to be about correct but continually lagged in the Place pool as compared to the next two most probable contenders who were also taking quite a bit of money to win.
I was comtemplating a Place bet on this horse since it did seem that a possible overlay was in store in this pool only. As I watched into the final minute, things changed dramatically. The pool on this horse quickly filled to a more reasonable amount that more truly reflected his chances to win or place. It turned out that there was no visable advantage in this pool with this horse hence , no bet.
The question to myself,- Was this money comming in on this horse due to others also watching the tote, or was money held back by the track until the last few seconds?
I think it's possible that there could be some human minipulation going on but then again, it could be absolutly nothing.
I know many of us have noticed this phenomena before ,so another question-Tote board minipulation or a figment of my imagination?

[JustRalph]

Watching the Super Tote the other day, the odds on the predictable favorite seemed to be about correct but continually lagged in the Place pool as compared to the next two most probable contenders who were also taking quite a bit of money to win.
I was comtemplating a Place bet on this horse since it did seem that a possible overlay was in store in this pool only. As I watched into the final minute, things changed dramatically. The pool on this horse quickly filled to a more reasonable amount that more truly reflected his chances to win or place. It turned out that there was no visable advantage in this pool with this horse hence , no bet.
The question to myself,- Was this money comming in on this horse due to others also watching the tote, or was money held back by the track until the last few seconds?
I think it's possible that there could be some human minipulation going on but then again, it could be absolutly nothing.
I know many of us have noticed this phenomena before ,so another question-Tote board minipulation or a figment of my imagination?

more than likely a computer glitch................wherein the data stream finally caught up on a later refresh...........

[PaceAdvantage]

As I watched into the final minute, things changed dramatically. The pool on this horse quickly filled to a more reasonable amount that more truly reflected his chances to win or place. It turned out that there was no visable advantage in this pool with this horse hence , no bet.
The question to myself,- Was this money comming in on this horse due to others also watching the tote, or was money held back by the track until the last few seconds?

I believe quite firmly there are many people, or groups of people, using computer programs to actively monitor the tote, then send in the money at the last second to take advantage of any perceived imbalances between the betting pools. Last one in wins....

It's not at all difficult to write software that makes the necessary calculations and then sends the bets in for you....whether you'll make money or not is another story.

[AngelEyes]

I remember once this past year at Penn National there was a 90-1 shot that opened up with $9k to show.

It's not the same scenario as what this thread is based on, but the person(s) who put that much to show must have put A LOT on the fav through a bookie.

In this case betting that early would not make sense. Public would be able to notice discrepency and bet on favourite to show which would reduce payoff. It would make more sense to make bets at both places in the last possible moment to reduce any chance for anyone else to take advantage. Also note in this case the max. profit someone could make betting Penn National at Pinnacle is $10k per race.
In order to benefit from this strategy would require several people. Example : 10 people each bet $900 to show on the worst looking horse in the race for a total of $9000. Let's say on a quiet day the show pool might only have $5k bet on it. Add $9k to it and now you have $14k in it. After takeout $11.5k would be available payout. Let's assume top 3 finishers had a total of $2.5k bet on it with $1.5k bet on the favourite. Payoff on fav. would be ((11.5 - 2.5)/3))/1.5 which ='s 2-1 and therefore pays $6. If each person bets $3k on it to show at offshore site they would make a profit of $5100 ($6000 - $900) with an outlay of $3900.
Let's say this was done 10 times and horse hit the board 6 times. Total input = $39000 and output = $54000 for a profit of $15000 for a ROI of 38 % .
If 7% rebate included in calculations then profit would be $15000 + $2100 = $17100 for a ROI of 44%.
I have been interested in doing this myself just not sure how many times you could do this before Pinny would catch on.

[clickety]

This thread reminds me of something an old pro player told me once. Apparently, at the track he played it was possible to cancel your bet and change it to a different horse, as long as you did it before the race started. He'd bet $500 early on a horse. The crowd would see this and all jump on the horse. Around post time he'd cancel the early $500 bet and bet $500 on the "real horse" he was expecting to win.

The crowd never knew what hit it.

The pinny version of this is, IF you see the sudden late odds changes on your bets regularly, and have good cause to believe they are flagging you; indeed the strategy is to make a "false bet" with them and your REAL bet thru Youbet close to post. If you are able to win frequently enough at, say small $20 bets so they notice you, put $20 with them and the REAL BET of $500 elsewhere.

Greed often tends to be its own undoing after a while and if pinny continues being dishonest it will catch up with them eventually.

c.