%Wire/P Horses?

[Tuffmug]

Was checking At a Glance Belmont Stats on Bris Handicapper's Daily. Listed Belmont for 6 furlongs as 67% wire BUT best running style was listed as P types?? Churchill at 6 furlong had lower % wire but Favored run style was E?? This makes absolutely no sense to me? Anyone out there have a clue as to how they calculate these numbers and what they mean? Is this just more BS information?

[Tom]

From what I have see, the BRIS running style designations are not very good-I always make my own call. As for their track stats stuff, I have no faith whatsoever in it. They combine Aqueduct inner and main track -might as well throw in Monmouth as well.
Tom

[kingmambo]

when i use the ULTIMATE RACE SUMMARY from
BRIS i use the % of runners at a track as a general guidline.i've used just about all their products at one
time or another and the only one i've consistently made
money with:MAIDEN STATS,Ill say it again MAIDEN STATS!LONG SHOTS GALORE!!

[hurrikane]

KIngmambo,

these maiden stats...they are in the ultimate pp or a different report. Havent used them in a while.

[andicap]

I once sent an email to BRIS asking about that very subject, the discrepency in running styles. Guess what?
I never got an answer.
I will say one positive thing about BRIS: their tech support is good.

I never use their running styles in the PPs or their running style stats. First of all they don't have an S/P running style. S/P's win a lot of races where theres a lot of pace upfront and they complete a lot of exactas. "S" horses on the other hand don't usually win.

The E/P and E designations are often a joke. A horse will get an E/P designation if he's never better than 2nd at the pace call even if he's really a bad E horse who generally fades. An E/P should have the ability to press the pace and pass horses in the stretch.

The designations are bad because they are done by computer. This is an instance where the human computer is much better than any electronic brain.

andicap

[Rick Ransom]

Wow,

I'm staying out of this one!

[maxwell]

I don't pay any attention to those stats as they don't include odds.

It's like a jock who wins 30 percent of his sprint races
but few of them are over 3/1. If you don't know that ....

Andicap pretty much said the same thing in his reply.

[Larry Hamilton]

I once sent an email to BRIS asking about that very subject, the discrepency in running styles. Guess what?
I never got an answer.
I will say one positive thing about BRIS: their tech support is good.

I never use their running styles in the PPs or their running style stats. First of all they don't have an S/P running style. S/P's win a lot of races where theres a lot of pace upfront and they complete a lot of exactas. "S" horses on the other hand don't usually win.

The E/P and E designations are often a joke. A horse will get an E/P designation if he's never better than 2nd at the pace call even if he's really a bad E horse who generally fades. An E/P should have the ability to press the pace and pass horses in the stretch.

The designations are bad because they are done by computer. This is an instance where the human computer is much better than any electronic brain.

andicap

==========response==================

I read your essay several times, and hope I got your facts right. If I cover your conclusion in the last paragraph and just focus on the facts you provide, I arrive at a totally different conclusion. It appears you are dissatisfied with the number of categories and how they are defined, derived and implemented. What does this have to do with a computer doing the calculation?

One more thing to those who think computers are monsters to the ART of handicapping. What are you typing on at this moment? Let me help. Look down at your hands. They are probably palms down with fingers curled slight above a white/beige instrucment with many buttons. At the rear of this contraption is a wire. Follow that wire, hand over hand. When you run out of wire, you are at the rear of a boxy gizmo with lights flashing whenever you put a small disk in the soft drink holder. Oh shit, it's a COMPUTER.... So you see it's really only a matter of how much you use this beast not if.

[Larry Hamilton]

While I am on a roll.....

If you must have the current odds in your calculations, what do you do about the dude who owns North Dakota? At any given moment, his money will appear, (usually after the race has begun and the window is closed), he can screw up your bet betting either with or against you.

Seems pointless to me to try carve out a niche in the tote board with odds that wont be still.

[PaceAdvantage]

Either I'm not paying attention, or I'm doing a great job of avoiding this Dakota beast and others like it....I have yet to notice in any real sense the type of odds manipulation you all are talking about recently.....guess I'm just lucky! LOL


==PA

[Larry Hamilton]

PA, thats a commentary on the type of tracks you play, not on his presense or not hehehehe

[andicap]

I never said computers were a useless handicapping tool. I've used several computer software programs through the years that I'd like and gladly use again.
(I quit them either because I don't bet enough to afford the $100+ a month fee or the software is no longer supported)

What I said was specifically for running styles I don't think a computer can accurately describe a running style all the time or even 90% of the time.

Further the best RS designations are based on recent races not something two years back. BRIS will go back that far.

andicap

[Larry Hamilton]

if you can define the various running stylels in some quantative means, it can be programmed.

However, I suspect that the real issue here is you want to use running styles in your handicapping process, but you dont trust the way they are prepared by BRIS (or perhaps anyone). This is always a problem when using someone else's program. There is no help for this problem.

[Tom]

If you are using pace analysis it is improtant that y ou undrstand what the RS designations mean so you can
evaluate horses by where they should be in the race today. Whether or not a computer can do this is debatable, but you must insist on consistency. I spend a lot of time on this step of the handicapping because it will dictate where I go in the later stages. I only use good races to assign a style unless there is a good reason not to, ie, a confirmed front runner who never finishes good is an E horse. A horse always at the back of the pack is an S. But the difference between EP/P and SP are the hard ones and a lot of horswe run more than one stlye-some match ups allow a horse to run up close and then move late while others keep him further back and requrie a stronger stretch run. It is not always black and white. Is Point Given a EP or S?
What is Monarchos? Depends how you look at the races. PG was EP in SA Deby, S in the Preakness. He won both powerfully. So what do we expect in the Belmont?

Tom

[andicap]

Jim Cramer always uses the RS that is the furthest back. E.G., Point Given would be an "S"
One thing I sometimes do -- if I have time -- is also jot down how many lengths off the lead the horse has made up. So a horse might be an S (2-6) and that would show he isn't a confirmed S but a rather flexible one who can go near the front if the pace is slow.

andicap

[Rick Ransom]

Those horses with the flexible running styles can be some of the best bets, especially if they never run really far back. I think this is an indication of class (versatility), but sometimes you can't see it in the PPs because they just never get tested by good horses in enough different pace scenarios. If they're really obviously good running both early and late, they'll be hammered down by the public though.