formula_2002
12-21-2005, 08:09 AM
comparing the model vs all, for fields>=9.and.go off as the favorite;
all 348 races
win pool 21% $loss, 29% winners
pla pool 14% $loss, 49% winners
sho pool 18% $loss, 58& winners
model 24 playable races
win pool 6% $loss, 38% winners
pla pool 15% $loss, 50% winners
sho pool 1.3% $loss, 71% winners
using kelly bets at 14% the model place pool returned a 25% $loss, the show pool 2% (after 7% rebate)
using kelly 11% for place and 20% for show;
22% win pool $loss, 4% show pool $loss
all 348 races
win pool 21% $loss, 29% winners
pla pool 14% $loss, 49% winners
sho pool 18% $loss, 58& winners
model 24 playable races
win pool 6% $loss, 38% winners
pla pool 15% $loss, 50% winners
sho pool 1.3% $loss, 71% winners
using kelly bets at 14% the model place pool returned a 25% $loss, the show pool 2% (after 7% rebate)
using kelly 11% for place and 20% for show;
22% win pool $loss, 4% show pool $loss