SUCCESS WITH ROUTES

[JustMissed]

Some of you guys and gals have been so nice to respond to my betting post I thought I would share my route handicapping with you. Most of you seem so high tech this may not interest you but I'm going to share it with you anyway.

I get the TSN pp's. For routes, after my normal contender selection process which includes throwing out losers, identifying DNCs and form darkened horses, I do the following:

With a red pencil, for the three most recent routes, I circle the highest of each E1, E2 & LP. I add these three numbers together and divided by three to get an average route pace figure. If I have, for example, two good horses, A with 81 and B with 83, I go with the highest last three speed fig. This works like a charm and also works with routes on turf except with turf I usually go with the horse that has the highest LP. I have not kept exact stats on this but I'm sure I'm hitting better than 70% and my BR is getting fatter.

Of course being a newbe, I'm probably wrong about most things, but I sincerely believe that each type of race needs to be handicapped differently, and I also believe that identifying the track bias makes it much easier to pick the winner.

I was doing sprints using internal fractions and after my eyes started to bleed, I figured I had better come up with an easier way than that(It was too much like work). I have noticed that some nights the horse in the lead at the second call seems to always win and other nights it seems like if there are two or three running together at the second call, they always seem to get beat by an P or EP horse. I'll keep you posted if I can come up with something on sprints.

By the way, I play Mountaineer on Monday and Tuesday nights, Charlestown on Thursday and Friday nights. Finger Lakes and sometime Calder on Saturday.

I also enjoy reading everyone's comments and hope you will post something-even if you disagree.

Thanks

:)

[socalsportsbook]

Just Missed

If it works for you--IT WORKS!! Don't give a damn what anyone thinks of the method. Come to the board from a position of STRENGTH! You're doing something and WINNING!!

You bring insight and a winning method to the table--WELCOME!!

[superfecta]

Originally posted by JustMissed
Some of you guys and gals have been so nice to respond to my betting post I thought I would share my route handicapping with you. Most of you seem so high tech this may not interest you but I'm going to share it with you anyway.

By the way, I play Mountaineer on Monday and Tuesday nights, Charlestown on Thursday and Friday nights. Finger Lakes and sometime Calder on Saturday.

I also enjoy reading everyone's comments and hope you will post something-even if you disagree.

Thanks

:) If you can make it playing these tracks my hats off to you.I can't make much sense except for the occasional race at Mountaineer.Pace seems a lesser factor as opposed to trainers and jocks.

[John]

WELCOME JustMissed.

Thanks for your post.

Question:Do you go back 90 days or so for your top three numbers. Also do you consider off track ratings in your final numbers. also turf and dirt. For example

11/6 sloppy
11/6 fast
11/6 firm [turf]
Would you consider all three or pass any of them.

[JustMissed]

I looked back at some of my old pp's and it appears that a lot of routers run every 19-28 days, more or less, so the last three races typically fall within the 90 days you ask about by default.

A lot of trainers bring routers back after a layoff and run them two sprints and then routes. Since I ignore the sprints, I would only have one route to look at in a 3RSL situation unless I look at the races prior to the over 30 day layoff. In that case I will look at the two routes prior to the layoff and last race layoff. It makes sense to me that if the horse did not win his last(most recent also) route race and has been worked with the sprints, he may well be ready to run back to his higher pre-layoff figs. I think some guys call this a 2211 distance switch pattern.

As far as track conditions, I think they are already "baked in the bread" because of using the highest of last three races you are elminating bad trips and poor track conditions by default. If the current race is in the slop I generally won't play a horse that has not run well in the slop at some time in its career.

I have gotten to where I really enjoy playing the routes and will often play all four units to win rather than the 1Win/3Place that I usually play. Maybe it a mental thing.

:)