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Turfday
12-18-2005, 04:49 PM
Checking my database, and using a large sample size of "60" claims over the last three-year period, it is remarkable to see that there are at least 15 trainers in North America and Canada that still win at a .30% clip first off the claim...no handicapping involved.

Using a smaller sample size of "30" claims over the last three-year period (average about 10 claims per year), it's just as remarkable to see that there are about 27 trainers in North America and Canada that win at the same .30% clip first off the claim. Again, no handicapping involved.

Good gosh. Those are very impressive win percentage stats. I'm not talking about 20% or 25%...which would still be very good.

I'm been around the game a long time. It was never like this "back in the day." These stats show how the claiming game has evolved. And, perhaps it proves a further separation of trainers either being "haves" or "have nots."

kenwoodallpromos
12-18-2005, 05:05 PM
What % of those 30% were favs last out or current race? If they were longshots current race, let me know which trainers!!

hurrikane
12-19-2005, 04:26 PM
Bob,

I agree is has grown. I'm not so sure there weren't trainers like that back then (when was the day?) but there were not big barns like there are now claiming horses all over the country. Not many trainers were claiming 30 horses.

Ken, I think if you want that information it could be bought. Right Bob? :D

Turfday
12-20-2005, 12:30 PM
Hurrikane...

In the "days of yore," with few exceptions, trainers played the claiming game differently. You're right, I don't think there were nearly as many "big barns" that were loaded with horses and as easily replenished nowadays.

The "super trainers"...the ones that are also in the claiming game...aided by rule changes as well, now think nothing of dropping down horses one or more levels to garner a win.

Instead of worrying about "protecting" useful horses from being claimed, it's now simply a no-brainer to drop these horses just for a win and without care of losing them. Reason: they'll simply claim another one.

As you pointed out, and from the facts above you enlightened me into acknowledging, certainly are not part of any statistical study.

However, it still boggles my mind that there are guys like this, who are WINNING FIRST OFF THE CLAIM at an incredible clip and yet, the average win mutuel of these first off the claim winners is still quite high.

Based on 60 or more claims within the last three years (a good sample size to insure some relevancy), it still boggles my mind at the AVERAGE WIN MUTUELS first off claim some of these trainers are getting:

Troy Bainum 126 claims / 51 wins (40%) / AWM $10.00

Steve Krebs 73 claims / 18 wins (25%) / AWM $12.00

Cody Autrey 73 claims / 21 wins (29%) / AWM $ 9.00

Rich. Dutrow 124 claims / 46 wins (37%) / AWM $ 7.00

The above are just a sample. Other trainers winning at a very high clip first off the claim ACCOMPANIED by an AVERAGE win mutuel of $8.00 or more are John Charles Zimmerman, William E. Morey, Steve Miyadi, Craig Robertson and Tom Amoss.

toetoe
12-20-2005, 02:05 PM
Wow. I loved Banjo Picker, not knowing that Krebs was especially proficient at anything, and not even knowing Tara H.'s gender. :)

RaceIsClosed
12-20-2005, 03:47 PM
Hurrikane...

In the "days of yore," with few exceptions, trainers played the claiming game differently. You're right, I don't think there were nearly as many "big barns" that were loaded with horses and as easily replenished nowadays.

The "super trainers"...the ones that are also in the claiming game...aided by rule changes as well, now think nothing of dropping down horses one or more levels to garner a win.

Instead of worrying about "protecting" useful horses from being claimed, it's now simply a no-brainer to drop these horses just for a win and without care of losing them. Reason: they'll simply claim another one.

As you pointed out, and from the facts above you enlightened me into acknowledging, certainly are not part of any statistical study.

However, it still boggles my mind that there are guys like this, who are WINNING FIRST OFF THE CLAIM at an incredible clip and yet, the average win mutuel of these first off the claim winners is still quite high.

Based on 60 or more claims within the last three years (a good sample size to insure some relevancy), it still boggles my mind at the AVERAGE WIN MUTUELS first off claim some of these trainers are getting:

Troy Bainum 126 claims / 51 wins (40%) / AWM $10.00

Steve Krebs 73 claims / 18 wins (25%) / AWM $12.00

Cody Autrey 73 claims / 21 wins (29%) / AWM $ 9.00

Rich. Dutrow 124 claims / 46 wins (37%) / AWM $ 7.00

The above are just a sample. Other trainers winning at a very high clip first off the claim ACCOMPANIED by an AVERAGE win mutuel of $8.00 or more are John Charles Zimmerman, William E. Morey, Steve Miyadi, Craig Robertson and Tom Amoss.

Just a note: Krebs is a former assistant to Scott Lake who used to take over his horses whenever Lake was caught behaving badly.

CryingForTheHorses
12-20-2005, 05:49 PM
A very big factor you are all forgeting,SINCE they changed the claiming rule..Before you had to raise your claim 25% for 30 days.You can now claim a horse that smokes for 10k,Take him home and 10 days later be the favorite again, For 10k, Win and lose him. Claiming hot horses and running them back fast can net a owner a fast profit with the purse.Claiming horses are damaged goods, You have to STRIKE when the iron is hot..

alysheba88
12-20-2005, 05:52 PM
The juice guys are especially deadly off the claim. No surprise to see Dutrow there. Notorious for getting rapid improvement

GaryG
12-20-2005, 06:49 PM
The Cat Man is at 35% but everything he sends out gets hammered to death at the windows. Claims away from him are virtually winless. I met him several years ago and he is a fine, humble man. Say it ain't so Wayne...:eek:

DrugSalvastore
12-21-2005, 02:46 AM
Just a note: Krebs is a former assistant to Scott Lake who used to take over his horses whenever Lake was caught behaving badly.

Yea, Krebs also won a stake at AQU with a nearly $100 horse over the weekend.

He was A TRIP when he came on AOL!! His behavior would put Steve-O's to shame I think...

He would start a daily thread about how Scott Lake was the best trainer of all-time. He would insult everyone (even me!) he could. A female trainer who posted there, he threatened to put all her horses in Stable Mail, and claim every horse off her, just so she could see "a real trainer move up your horses."

A poster finally responded to his threads about Scott Lake being the greatest ever--by mentioning they felt Lake "juiced." Krebs replied "Yea so what, do you think Frankel and Mandella don't juice?" Anyway, someone got the bright idea to put the guys name through a search engine, and they found out he was an old Lake assistant. That bit of information, made his comments very interesting. Basically, the guy who saddled horses for Scott Lake, responded to accusations of Lake cheating, by basically saying 'so what, you are naive if you think other trainers don't do it.'

My favorite line of his was this one: "When you are as good as I am, you can spend all day on the computer and still win at a 20% clip."

46zilzal
12-21-2005, 02:53 AM
that big time horse at the big A figured (9th on the 18th?)

Tom Barrister
12-21-2005, 06:06 AM
My favorite line of his was this one: "When you are as good as I am, you can spend all day on the computer and still win at a 20% clip."

Sounds like King Leatherbury. Don't know if he uses a computer, but he did his training out of an office for decades. Probably still does.

jotb
12-21-2005, 12:52 PM
Yea, Krebs also won a stake at AQU with a nearly $100 horse over the weekend.

He was A TRIP when he came on AOL!! His behavior would put Steve-O's to shame I think...

He would start a daily thread about how Scott Lake was the best trainer of all-time. He would insult everyone (even me!) he could. A female trainer who posted there, he threatened to put all her horses in Stable Mail, and claim every horse off her, just so she could see "a real trainer move up your horses."

A poster finally responded to his threads about Scott Lake being the greatest ever--by mentioning they felt Lake "juiced." Krebs replied "Yea so what, do you think Frankel and Mandella don't juice?" Anyway, someone got the bright idea to put the guys name through a search engine, and they found out he was an old Lake assistant. That bit of information, made his comments very interesting. Basically, the guy who saddled horses for Scott Lake, responded to accusations of Lake cheating, by basically saying 'so what, you are naive if you think other trainers don't do it.'

My favorite line of his was this one: "When you are as good as I am, you can spend all day on the computer and still win at a 20% clip."

Hello:

Yeah, he did work for Lake. He was on his own before Lake and didn't have a clue then and unfortunately, I have to say, he still does not have a clue after leaving Lake. I know he has a decent win% but remember that does not make him a good horsemen. He's one of those trainers that show up at the barn at 9am after eveything has went to the track.

Joe

jotb
12-21-2005, 12:57 PM
Wow. I loved Banjo Picker, not knowing that Krebs was especially proficient at anything, and not even knowing Tara H.'s gender. :)

Yeah thank the Good Lord the track was playing the way it was, otherwise you would not have found that horse with a search warrant. He was not the price he was because he looked good on paper. Luckily Hemmings and horse did not come down. Horse was getting out in the stretch when Tara went left-handed but luckily she used common sense and refrained using the stick right after that.

Joe

RaceIsClosed
12-21-2005, 01:18 PM
Hello:

Yeah, he did work for Lake. He was on his own before Lake and didn't have a clue then and unfortunately, I have to say, he still does not have a clue after leaving Lake. I know he has a decent win% but remember that does not make him a good horsemen. He's one of those trainers that show up at the barn at 9am after eveything has went to the track.

Joe

Krebs has quite the clue. When his horses win, they do so decisively, and he has a profitable ROI in several categories.

A lot of handicapping Philadelphia Park involves knowing which trainers can defeat guys like Krebs. There are maybe six of them at Philadelphia Park who can do so reliably. Krebs is a very strong trainer and especially dangerous at a price, or with recent claims.

jotb
12-21-2005, 01:33 PM
Krebs has quite the clue. When his horses win, they do so decisively, and he has a profitable ROI in several categories.

A lot of handicapping Philadelphia Park involves knowing which trainers can defeat guys like Krebs. There are maybe six of them at Philadelphia Park who can do so reliably. Krebs is a very strong trainer and especially dangerous at a price, or with recent claims.

I take it that you are a handicapper and I will agree with you on this but my point was in regard to him as a horsemen and I could understand why you see this differently.

Joe

CryingForTheHorses
12-21-2005, 02:39 PM
Hello:

Yeah, he did work for Lake. He was on his own before Lake and didn't have a clue then and unfortunately, I have to say, he still does not have a clue after leaving Lake. I know he has a decent win% but remember that does not make him a good horsemen. He's one of those trainers that show up at the barn at 9am after eveything has went to the track.

Joe

I thank you for this post,This is something that has pissed me off for years!!..The trainers who get the numbers under "False" pretenses...Let all the help do the work and then take ALL the glory,One thing good ..He does have to claim and re enter these horses in the right spots to keep up his numbers, When you have good help its very easy to call you asst and ask about the horse, IF you have a good asst...THE trainer will win races

hurrikane
12-23-2005, 09:14 AM
Turf,

good posts. I'm guessing jail is the biggest differnce these days. And the purses at the racinos. You can claim cheap horses, race them back for good purses.

good info.

Arts and Letters
12-24-2005, 09:18 AM
Off the claim is my bread and butter to cashing tickets. I realize that high profile guys like Zito, Baffert, Lukas, etc. are highly skilled trainers. However I find that good claiming trainers are the craftiest in the game. Knowing a good value in claiming a horse, then being able to spot it at the proper level are skills that win races.

I do find it funny that some posters here worry about who's "juicing" their horses and what not. I only look at one thing .... what trainers are winning off the claim. That is what wins you money. I'm sure there are trainers playing games, but that doesn't make me feel guilty about cashing a ticket on their horse.

I remember the flap over Jeff Mullins a while back. He went on a bit of a losing streak after a suspension and many felt the "juicing" was the reason he was winning races. I think thats B.S.! Mullins is an EXCELLENT trainer who always finds the winners circle at a good clip.

One more thing I would add. Some trainers excell at winning 2nd or 3rd off the claim. Pay attention to these type of things and it will definetly help your winning percentage.

JustRalph
12-24-2005, 12:57 PM
I remember the flap over Jeff Mullins a while back. He went on a bit of a losing streak after a suspension and many felt the "juicing" was the reason he was winning races. I think thats B.S.! Mullins is an EXCELLENT trainer who always finds the winners circle at a good clip.

One more thing I would add. Some trainers excell at winning 2nd or 3rd off the claim. Pay attention to these type of things and it will definetly help your winning percentage.

sure, it can help your winning percentage. But in your example, everything Mullins claimed, came back as the favorite. And he was only winning 1 of 3 with those horses. I made plenty of dough playing against him after a claim. I am really not interested in my winning percentage, if it comes back short priced. In the words of Boxcar........... It is the longshots that count............or something like that. If you can't pick some decent longshots or even mid priced horses in the right spot (these aren't any more hard to find but are much more reliable) then you can't make any decent money.........