Steverr1
12-16-2005, 09:29 PM
A general approach to the Races. How I approach each card at the Track
WARNING
DELETE now if you are looking for some new method or hither-to-before unknown approach.
If you are still here this is my general approach to selecting winners at any Track. For some it will help ---so for the new to the races people:
I start by kicking out horses that I don't think have a shot. In other words what are the pigs? A former long process for me, but I can say that I look at the level they have been running and go from there. I usually can (on the fly) knock out 3. But if you haven’t found any method that you are comfortable with then use the M/L as a reference. Kick out all the 20-1’s as they win at a very low frequency.
From that point I compare pacelines and kick out the lowest speed rated horse provided their line doesn’t show any trouble last race.
Sometimes I will then kick out low % jockeys, but not always--depends if I already know their riding style or Trainer they are riding for today.
I also have a way I like to look at energy expended that takes 1 or so out, but that is using some software that is not available to be sold. It still is a very subjective area so it may not be all that, but for me it does help to get another horse out of the win.
You can accomplish almost the same thing I do using a multitude of reporting services. I kick out those who do not fit today’s race by at least a full % over the field average. If you don’t understand this I hope to write more concerning energy, but for now I don’t have enough time. The point is to look for horses who don’t fit with the majority of the field for one reason or another. Early horses that habitually fade may be a good example and are out classed in today’s field.
At this juncture I am down to 3 or 4 horses and that is when I apply bias. I am looking for the horse that fits today’s race with their running style or post. Often I can get this to a single horse, but not always. Common Sense must always prevail, but don’t over handicap. Bias can be found on any track via any good software or reporting service. Sometimes none exists that can tip the scales so I look towards other traditional items such as top jock, or simply what horse makes the most sense.
In general I always work backwards to determine the winner. I almost never accept any M/L or DRF influence.
I wrote this very hurriedly but I hope that for the few of you who are interested it gave you some insight of the approach I use. Over the years I have become very fast at my handicapping. It’s methodical for me as I rarely alter my approach unless I discover another item that becomes relative to the process. This is just an overview, hopefully I can offer more in depth methods as time allows.
WARNING
DELETE now if you are looking for some new method or hither-to-before unknown approach.
If you are still here this is my general approach to selecting winners at any Track. For some it will help ---so for the new to the races people:
I start by kicking out horses that I don't think have a shot. In other words what are the pigs? A former long process for me, but I can say that I look at the level they have been running and go from there. I usually can (on the fly) knock out 3. But if you haven’t found any method that you are comfortable with then use the M/L as a reference. Kick out all the 20-1’s as they win at a very low frequency.
From that point I compare pacelines and kick out the lowest speed rated horse provided their line doesn’t show any trouble last race.
Sometimes I will then kick out low % jockeys, but not always--depends if I already know their riding style or Trainer they are riding for today.
I also have a way I like to look at energy expended that takes 1 or so out, but that is using some software that is not available to be sold. It still is a very subjective area so it may not be all that, but for me it does help to get another horse out of the win.
You can accomplish almost the same thing I do using a multitude of reporting services. I kick out those who do not fit today’s race by at least a full % over the field average. If you don’t understand this I hope to write more concerning energy, but for now I don’t have enough time. The point is to look for horses who don’t fit with the majority of the field for one reason or another. Early horses that habitually fade may be a good example and are out classed in today’s field.
At this juncture I am down to 3 or 4 horses and that is when I apply bias. I am looking for the horse that fits today’s race with their running style or post. Often I can get this to a single horse, but not always. Common Sense must always prevail, but don’t over handicap. Bias can be found on any track via any good software or reporting service. Sometimes none exists that can tip the scales so I look towards other traditional items such as top jock, or simply what horse makes the most sense.
In general I always work backwards to determine the winner. I almost never accept any M/L or DRF influence.
I wrote this very hurriedly but I hope that for the few of you who are interested it gave you some insight of the approach I use. Over the years I have become very fast at my handicapping. It’s methodical for me as I rarely alter my approach unless I discover another item that becomes relative to the process. This is just an overview, hopefully I can offer more in depth methods as time allows.