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Steverr1
12-13-2005, 03:17 PM
In my actions I seem to have jumped to wrong conclusions regarding this forum. I am reminded that nothing works better than time to calm anger and other human haste.



Over the years I have shared my ideas and at times my horses with many. Now I get many emails and honestly it is extremely hard to keep up. Perhaps this forum will serve to answer many questions and private mails. One thing I have observed is that many of us assume that everyone is experienced and understand all the jargon. My emails prove that is not true. I am always receiving mail from Lurkers who are embarrassed to chime in and ask questions that they feel are stupid. In addition they are afraid of getting bashed by those who post sarcasms. In this beginning post I hope to pass on my thoughts to those who seek answers. I am not an expert in anything that I know of so remember that as I post. I will strive to give you a basic building block and along the way there will be several who do not agree. I can only state that these ideas have put me in the extreme of ROI’s.



Brother Dave, a former Southern Preacher would often say to us losers “If you don’t like what yah doing, then what yah doing it for? Made sense to me.

Dave would frequently add, If you ain’t winning at what yah doing, then why are you doing it? Hadn’t it occurred to you boys that YOU need to change Something?



Change? But I have always done things this way, Larry P likely would shoot back.






As you can see Larry P could never get it. He refused any change and never will be able to see there could be a better way, perhaps a winning way -laying it wait for him. So, everyday Larry goes to a job that he despises and one that also pays very little. I can’t knock him about his work as I respect that he is employed. But the days he attends the track he can only afford a small bet all day long, and worse yet he almost always gets influenced by a friend of his who knows it all. That’s just the way Larry P does things. Larry P has seldom had a winning day at the Track. His way is to view the money he takes with him as “already gone” for entertainment purposes. That’s just the way Larry P has always done things.






Ok, for sure we don’t want to be a Larry P but how do we get into the winning ways and take home a profit. Heres the answer:



If your methods, techniques, and observations cause you to lose more than you win then face the facts. You have to change something.



Obviously something isn’t working for you and nothing, and I really mean nothing will change for you until You make changes. When you finally realize change you are on the path to winning. You may not get to the finish line, but you will be making a necessary adjustment to become a consistent winner.






First Change: Attitude I could write so much about this one item, but for this writing let me just say that all winners have one thing in common. A Great Attitude. They not only believe they can win, they expect it. They will make you sick if you get near them. They won this, they won that, etc. Truth is though, that is the winning attitude. They have no expectations that they will lose. In other words, they bring confidence and skill with them and winning repeats for them everyday.



I watched Smiling Sam from Australia fight Winky Wright Saturday night. No one gave Sam a chance to get out of the second round. In the 8th round Winky was in his corner with ice for his swelling eye and was looking very tired. Smiling Sam sat in his corner with a big smile and looked like he had just started the fight. Attitude. He came to win and almost pulled it off. Everyone could feel and sense that Sam was in the ring to win because of the attitude that came through in-between rounds and in his corner. Point is, he never lost his attitude for the fight and he physically did as good as he could. Sam lost the fight, but gained many supporters because of his attitude. Next time he is a force that no one will take lightly. No one will doubt that Sam shows up to win.



Same for you. Take on a winning attitude towards horse racing and watch your world change. Always believe you are there to win. Always believe in your bets, and always stay positive.






Secret Of Winning: Money management. That it! I assume that you have the winning attitude, and knowledge of the game so money management is the secret weapon along with Discipline that will take you to a positive ROI. But exactly what is the money management thing many ask?



Money management is protecting your bankroll to minimize losses, while you apply handicapping methods to let it grow larger. Another simple way to state the same thing is that we are protecting our bankroll money as if it’s the last money we will ever have. We will put a Kung-Fu grip around our hard earned cash, but we will use bits of it to win money at the track, but only those bits that our management system will allow.



What if, just what if you alter your entire way of playing the thoroughbreds? No exactas, No Trifectas, No pic 3’s. Nada! What if for a week you Just do Win wagers? Nothing else -no matter what a lock it may be-no others period. Just win bets! This alone would be a major change for many of you.



The point is that if I can help you get into the winning feeling and your confidence comes back your outlook will greatly change all by itself on how to win. Why? Because at the end of one week you may have experienced a profit and a larger bankroll. Winning, regardless of the amount is always a high. Especially when you leave with more than you came in the track with.



You then can see, experience, and clearly know that You Too can win, that’s its possible for you too. Then you will be on your way to more bets, and winnings all the while managing your money for some larger wins and positive ROI. Call this one week experiment Winter Camp or something, but give it a try.



There are many methods to consider, but for some of you this one may work best:



**After teaching this type of wager to many ‘Novice’ friends along with other variations of the KC I have found that many find this method better than others



Starting with your bankroll make your first win bet 5% of the total. If you start with $400.00 then $20 will be your win bet. When you win or lose this bet -either add the winnings- or subtract the losses from the beginning bankroll. Here are the rules:



If you lost then your next win bet will decrease by ¼% making the amount 4 ¾% of what the new adjusted bankroll has become. For every loss decrease the next win bet by ¼% of the adjusted bankroll.



For every Win adjust the bankroll and then move up the next bet by ½%.



In the example-if we won-our first bet we would add our winnings into our bankroll and for the next bet use 5 1/2% of our bankroll.



Take whatever you want to take out after you have exceeded your bankroll if you want. Regardless, I would start over with my original bankroll after I reach 8 or 9% and take the money. And never go below 2% of your bankroll.



For many of you this is old stuff, but there are many new players who don’t know ANY money management techniques. There are many other ways to manage your money and stay in the game for a profit. This is but one way of those and very basic. As we proceed I add more to your game, but we first need to build a foundation.



One last thing, I think you should include my horse in the 11th today at Tampa. She has been training well. May get a piece of the Super.



Steve Richardson

shanta
12-13-2005, 03:50 PM
Excellent post Steve.

Thanx for taking the time to share some of your thoughts regarding what it takes to win. I only know 2 documented winning players and they both have that "no doubt I will win" attitude you speak of.

They also both work extremely hard spending many hours a day.


Hope your hoss runs well for you today and a Merry Christmas to you and yours

Richie :)

Doug3312
12-13-2005, 03:52 PM
I for one am listening.;) Welcome back!

midnight
12-13-2005, 05:09 PM
Welcome back.

I may be missing something here, but your money management idea of raising the percent 1/2% on a win and lowering it 1/4% on a loss doesn't make sense to me. In order to keep the bankroll at the 5% level, you'd have to win 33% of your bets, and there aren't many professionals that I know who win 33% of their win bets---at least not at a profit. At 25% winners, you'd be going down 1/4% of bankroll every four bets, on average, and you'd be down to your minimum of 2% after 48 bets. At 20% winners, you'd be going down 1/2% every five bets, and you'd be down to the 2% minimum after 30 bets. To get up to 8%, you'd have to hit over 33% winners. If you hit 40% winners, you'd be gaining 1/4% every 5 bets and would need 60 bets to reach the 8% lower maximum.

Is there something I'm not seeing here?

tabbencas
12-13-2005, 05:20 PM
Thanks Steve

Just watched your horse in the 11th.Got caught on the inside but was full of run at the end.I look forward to hearing more of your methods.I m very intrigued by you not using a DRF.I ve often left the races after a losing day and saying "if I keep doing what I m doing, I m going to keep getting what I m getting".Thanks for sharing.

cj
12-13-2005, 05:31 PM
This is not meant as a knock, but the horse was 5-2, so saying he'd be in the super wasn't exactly a Bob Beamon Mexico City type leap.

I would think it is tough to handicap your own horses as a bettor. The turf horse ran very well on Saturday on dirt, though you said he wouldn't like it, and this horse was beaten by a couple of much longer priced horses. Do you bet on your own horses? Do you find it tougher to be objective?

46zilzal
12-13-2005, 05:50 PM
good speed but was getting really tired at the end......Damn, my nag ran second.

Zaf
12-13-2005, 06:13 PM
This is not meant as a knock, but the horse was 5-2, so saying he'd be in the super wasn't exactly a Bob Beamon Mexico City type leap.



:lol: :lol: :lol:

I noticed in the chart that the photo finish equipment failed. A dead heat rounded out the superfecta.

From the chart : Note: Due to photo finish malfunction the final margins are estimated by equibase track crew.

Welcome back Steve.

Z

Vegas711
12-13-2005, 06:34 PM
Steve, looking forward to hearing about your handicapping ideas.

Steverr1
12-13-2005, 07:48 PM
Midnight,

Thanks for the welcome. Hope I can offer something of value here.


"There are many methods to consider, but for some of you this one may work best"



I don't need to tell you how most of these management systems will get one in trouble. Remember it is not you...(obvious that you are good at math)...that I send this message too. In fact, I hoped to make it clear that this first post was simply for the Novice.



But after years of teaching discipline with the money I have found that more people than you can imagine have no clue as to overlays, tote tells, and/or odds et al. Show them the formula for accurate long term verification of stats “N = W x L x (Z/E) x (Z / E)” and they will give up on racing.



The point (at least for me) is to offer something very simple that breaks them into money management and winning. Yes, Yes, Yes, there are much better ways to play than what I have written, but it seems to be a good start for many. When the win plays are in small fractions it serves to keep many in the game and most importantly their overall flaw in approaching this sport becomes crystal clear. They must first learn to catch win bets before going forward. You would be surprised how many people do not recognize this weakness and are playing exactas, trifectas and all else without a clue as to their win percentage. When the focus is only on win bets and a clear log such as the one that must be kept to play the method I suggested then the punter (sometimes for the very first time) understands why he/she has been losing.



Now, as I posted somewhere, I can not hold a candle to many of you regarding fundamentals such as Brohamer, Beyer, Mitchell, Masa, and many of you on this list. I can only offer what has worked for me beginning with basic approaches. At some point I hope to be able to explain how I handicap software, but my interest at present is to help those that are still searching for answers and offering a different view point.

Steve

Steverr1
12-13-2005, 08:16 PM
CJ,



In regards to my turf horse I had to hurry and make a post as I only learned that my trainer had decided to leave him in as I was leaving for the Track. I hadn’t thought the weather was bad enough to off turf in the first place.



In any event he had been on a 100 day layoff and as you probably know the dirt track in Tampa is deep and tiring. The question then becomes is he rested and ready OR will he tire in the dirt first time out on the Tampa surface. I felt he would be OK, but when I adjusted my figures I saw a little more doubt than the figures I had for Turf. Basically I was attempting to give a warning rather than discount him.



Today I was alerting you to my horse was live in a 12 horse field. There is something to be gained from that I think? I have seen a lot of horses who should have been there not make it on the board and to this day I don’t know why. Knowing that my horse was live it is not beyond reason that you could have used her for your key and caught the Superfecta. Actually I thought the Superfecta was rather easy in my race.

One other note. If you have been following all my posts then it had to aware that my Trainer has at the very least a very warm barn. I don’t think it was out of the question to use that angle in the race that preceded mine. With some Luck you may have caught the $41,000.00 Superfecta. My friend caught the Trifecta for $5300.00 but I must be honest and state that I missed that race altogether. I was talking to a friend about the upcoming 11th race and didn’t place any bets.



Years ago I played all my horses with my heart. However, at one time I had almost 45 racing thoroughbreds and that heart stuff will catch up with one fast. Now I only wager what my handicapping dictates. I have had a few regrets, but not that many about missing a win.



Steve

joeyspicks
12-13-2005, 09:13 PM
STEVE: "Secret Of Winning: Money management. That it !"

.................................................. .................................................. ......................

THANK YOU. thank you thank you

Steve I have said this EXACT same thing so many times on this board , I was getting tired of "hearing myself":lol:

Good to hear from you again! Especially the part about....."if it aint working you got to change SOMETHING! So many just want to keep doing what they are doing and blame the results on everything and anything.

good post,

Joe

banacek
12-13-2005, 09:15 PM
First Change: Attitude I could write so much about this one item, but for this writing let me just say that all winners have one thing in common. A Great Attitude. They not only believe they can win, they expect it. They will make you sick if you get near them. They won this, they won that, etc. Truth is though, that is the winning attitude. They have no expectations that they will lose. In other words, they bring confidence and skill with them and winning repeats for them everyday.


I remember fooling around with a money management plan like that a few years ago (was it in Jerry Samovitz's book?)

I do agree about attitude. But the big question - how do you do it? It is kind of Catch-22 - if winning no problem (although you could get overconfident) - if losing very hard to do - especially when in a big slump. Any tips or suggested readings on keeping a calm consistent winning attitude whether winning or losing.

Thanks for your posts. Enjoyed them

DJofSD
12-13-2005, 09:22 PM
if it ain't working you got to change SOMETHING!

Truer words were never uttered.

As I tell coworkers, if you want things to get better then something has to change. And, as also noted, sometimes it's your attitude/perspective/way of thinking.

mainardi
12-13-2005, 10:27 PM
When it comes to money management, you have to have great discipline. :bang:

I surmise that most people that call themselves handicappers are actually just gamblers that prefer the horses over other forms of gambling. The distinction seems to be the lack of discipline. I should know... my Dad was one of the two best handicappers I've ever known... and one of the worst money managers!!! Just ask my Mom!!! I'm sure that given the chance, he'd have bet on which of two people would get to their car first leaving the clubhouse. :faint:

I am a spot player, sometimes handicapping four full cards to get a few decent wagers down. From this perspective, you have to have two types of discipline: [1] not betting just for the sake of it AND [2] having a "per race" wagering plan. I have studied all sorts of schemes, and ultimately settled on a "flat wager" setup (allowing for some 2x wagers on "Star" selections... works out to about one a month). Since I'm +5% ROI for the last five years, I'm comfortable with being super selective.

But, boy can it be boring some days. Watching race after race go by -- I have both HRTV and TVG at home -- I just get the itch... and then I go out and do yard work (or any of my many other honey-dos) or some other distraction.

As far as the incremental systems, they don't work for me (since my win % is lower due to my "nothing less than 5/2" rule). I just came off an 0-for-20 run (honestly... you gotta admit the bad times as well), which would have crushed my bankroll. Before that, I was 10-for-18 (made a grand) and before that I was 0-for-15. I ended up +$100 over those 53 races, which I sincerely doubt I could have done with any sort of incremental system.

So, what's the lesson? Pick a comfortable wagering strategy, and don't bet on everything that moves! It's boring, but it beats tapping into my beer money! :D

twindouble
12-13-2005, 11:02 PM
Steve;

Quote;
"In my actions I seem to have jumped to wrong conclusions regarding this forum. I am reminded that nothing works better than time to calm anger and other human haste."

Personally, I don't think it was a matter of anger or haste, as a matter of fact most members were just skeptical, so I would think an intellegent successfull guy like you would think less of them if they just bowed with awe after reading your first post. Anyway, I give you credit for coming back to state your case.


Good Luck,

T.D.

nomadpat
12-13-2005, 11:10 PM
The money management system you post is exactly what is found in Jerry Samovitz's Out of the Red Into the Black.

kenwoodallpromos
12-13-2005, 11:38 PM
Exactly?

andicap
12-14-2005, 12:34 AM
RE: the money management system to curtail bets as you lose. I have one question: Wouldn't this mean you would be betting ever smaller amounts when you finally won? In other words, as your bankroll declines when you finally hit a big one you would be betting less. Similarly after a winning streak when you finally start losing a little you would be betting more.

No real opinions on this -- Just wondering.

joeyspicks
12-14-2005, 09:07 AM
Joe Mainardi: When it comes to money management, you have to have great discipline. :bang:

.................................................. .............................
Exactly correct Joe..........THATS why its not a popular subject. Its not easy. There are several good MM plans including Jerry S. (out of the red.....etc) and Dick S etc etc.

HOWEVER they ALL take discpline (darn)....and as mentioned in this thread.....IF IT AINT WORKING.....CHANGE SOMETHING....

THIS is the something YOU can change! ( correct ? ? ?)

Steverr1
12-14-2005, 09:25 AM
Nomadpat,

Thanks for the reference. I was taught this method in late 1996 by a veteran New York bettor. We called him Yankee Mike. My thanks to both of them-Jerry/Mike. Jerry for writing it and Mike for passing it on. It was this method that got me to focusing on win bets, which I had some success, but the most important item for me was getting me to notice the money I had been blowing on bad bets. The proverbial light bulb went off in the cerebral cortex and begged me to learn more about how-perhaps even why -one horse wins in a race over others. That was the beginning and foundation of changing my approach to the sport.

Steve

RaceIsClosed
12-14-2005, 09:44 AM
First Change: Attitude I could write so much about this one item, but for this writing let me just say that all winners have one thing in common. A Great Attitude. They not only believe they can win, they expect it. They will make you sick if you get near them. They won this, they won that, etc. Truth is though, that is the winning attitude. They have no expectations that they will lose. In other words, they bring confidence and skill with them and winning repeats for them everyday.


Secret Of Winning: Money management. That it! I assume that you have the winning attitude, and knowledge of the game so money management is the secret weapon along with Discipline that will take you to a positive ROI. But exactly what is the money management thing many ask?



Money management is protecting your bankroll to minimize losses, while you apply handicapping methods to let it grow larger. Another simple way to state the same thing is that we are protecting our bankroll money as if it’s the last money we will ever have. We will put a Kung-Fu grip around our hard earned cash, but we will use bits of it to win money at the track, but only those bits that our management system will allow.



What if, just what if you alter your entire way of playing the thoroughbreds? No exactas, No Trifectas, No pic 3’s. Nada! What if for a week you Just do Win wagers? Nothing else -no matter what a lock it may be-no others period. Just win bets! This alone would be a major change for many of you.



The point is that if I can help you get into the winning feeling and your confidence comes back your outlook will greatly change all by itself on how to win. Why? Because at the end of one week you may have experienced a profit and a larger bankroll. Winning, regardless of the amount is always a high. Especially when you leave with more than you came in the track with.



You then can see, experience, and clearly know that You Too can win, that’s its possible for you too. Then you will be on your way to more bets, and winnings all the while managing your money for some larger wins and positive ROI. Call this one week experiment Winter Camp or something, but give it a try.



There are many methods to consider, but for some of you this one may work best:



**After teaching this type of wager to many ‘Novice’ friends along with other variations of the KC I have found that many find this method better than others



Starting with your bankroll make your first win bet 5% of the total. If you start with $400.00 then $20 will be your win bet. When you win or lose this bet -either add the winnings- or subtract the losses from the beginning bankroll. Here are the rules:



If you lost then your next win bet will decrease by ¼% making the amount 4 ¾% of what the new adjusted bankroll has become. For every loss decrease the next win bet by ¼% of the adjusted bankroll.



For every Win adjust the bankroll and then move up the next bet by ½%.



In the example-if we won-our first bet we would add our winnings into our bankroll and for the next bet use 5 1/2% of our bankroll.



Take whatever you want to take out after you have exceeded your bankroll if you want. Regardless, I would start over with my original bankroll after I reach 8 or 9% and take the money. And never go below 2% of your bankroll.



For many of you this is old stuff, but there are many new players who don’t know ANY money management techniques. There are many other ways to manage your money and stay in the game for a profit. This is but one way of those and very basic. As we proceed I add more to your game, but we first need to build a foundation.



One last thing, I think you should include my horse in the 11th today at Tampa. She has been training well. May get a piece of the Super.


All "money management" is based on the notion that the player has a positive-ROI, and attempts to "ensure" a profit from that superior handicapping. If he does not have superior handicapping, then "sound money management" will ensure his losses.

Don't play exotics? Never met a professional handicapper who doesn't do that, and why mention a horse might get a part of the super or talk about IRS hits if you only play win?

Attitude? That's rich. How about some concrete handicapping techniques. Your post has NONE.

This guy wants credit for others winning without doing a damn thing.

Steverr1
12-14-2005, 10:10 AM
RaceisClosed,


Apparently you have missed the other threads. I do not just wager the win bets. I am attempting to teach what I do from the beginning. Not all people have your knowledge of the game. Lets show them different methods and perhaps they too can take something from the forum and incorporate it into a winning ticket.

About to post a Pic 3 strategy that I do use.

Steve

BetHorses!
12-14-2005, 10:50 AM
About to post a Pic 3 strategy that I do use.

Steve

Curious if you receive a rebate

thank you

Doug3312
12-14-2005, 10:52 AM
He doesn't. He said that he makes all his bets at the track, and there is no rebate involved.

BetHorses!
12-14-2005, 11:05 AM
He doesn't. He said that he makes all his bets at the track, and there is no rebate involved.


ok. I'll revise my question. If you netted all that money this past year, your handle must have been huge. Throw in another 7-10 % rebate and we are talking big money back you your bottom line. Why do you make all your bets at the track if you can minimize losses or maximize profits receiving a rebate?

the little guy
12-14-2005, 11:06 AM
He doesn't. He said that he makes all his bets at the track, and there is no rebate involved.

You're already answering for him?

douglasw32
12-14-2005, 12:36 PM
I am not as Proud as some ;)

"there are many new players who don’t know ANY money management techniques. There are many other ways to manage your money and stay in the game for a profit. This is but one way of those and very basic. As we proceed I add more to your game, but we first need to build a foundation."

I appreciate these kind of responses.
keep em coming...

there is no way to measure how much Every Single Poster on this board has contributed to my continued enjoyment of this sport/game.

If you need to know something and you search for it, chances are it has been covered...so just keep the ideas rolling.

"there are many new players" <<- thats why I can not add much.

But I was drawn to this board and lurked alot because I have a K.I.S.S. (keep it simple stupid) way of handicapping.

What ones will lead, what ones will close... Thats how I start every race.

toetoe
12-14-2005, 05:46 PM
I KNEW I had read that somewhere. I think after winning streaks, the base becomes large enough to stay profitable, even betting 2%.