NFL week 15

[Valuist]

Getting down early on two of these:

NEW ENGLAND -3 1/2 over Tampa Bay. Pats are looking very sharp right now. 56-20 first down edge the L2 weeks; the once poor defense earlier in the season has now allowed 17 pts or less in 4 of their L5 games. Situationally a bad spot for Tampa; rare 3rd consecutive road game and they must leave the warmth of Florida for the bitter cold. Their struggles in the cold have been well documented in their history. I believe the only wins in under 32 degrees in their history were in their Super Bowl year.

San Diego +9 over INDY---Just not sure how "up" Indy will be for this. Yeah they want to win but if they get up by any margin at all, look for Manning, James et al to come out. SD has plenty to play for here; probably was looking ahead last week. I think the Colts one weak spot might be against the run, and nobody is better than LT.

[toetoe]

Patriots are in raging form. That 9 for Indianapolis is a HUGE number. Wonder whether it will move.

[Valuist]

9 and definitely 10 are much bigger "key" numbers than 8 so I doubt it will go higher; especially after hearing that Colt starters Cato June and Corey Simon will sit out the game.

[BetHorses!]

Agree with both here. Also still alive in my suicide pool and might take the Pats. However the other guy can pick the Jags.

[Valuist]

Pittsburgh -3 over MINN. I'm still not sold on Minnesota. They've taken advantage of good scheduling and turnover prone QBs. Rothelsberger doesn't throw many picks. Also, the boat scandal charges just came out which should be a bit of a distraction for the Vikings.

[xfile]

Getting down early on two of these:

NEW ENGLAND -3 1/2 over Tampa Bay. Pats are looking very sharp right now. 56-20 first down edge the L2 weeks; the once poor defense earlier in the season has now allowed 17 pts or less in 4 of their L5 games. Situationally a bad spot for Tampa; rare 3rd consecutive road game and they must leave the warmth of Florida for the bitter cold. Their struggles in the cold have been well documented in their history. I believe the only wins in under 32 degrees in their history were in their Super Bowl year.

San Diego +9 over INDY---Just not sure how "up" Indy will be for this. Yeah they want to win but if they get up by any margin at all, look for Manning, James et al to come out. SD has plenty to play for here; probably was looking ahead last week. I think the Colts one weak spot might be against the run, and nobody is better than LT.

Indy will lose this game or next week versus ....Seattle is it?... The odds are extremely against them going 16-0.....But if they do I will march right out and buy a Peyton Manning jersey. :D

[Valuist]

The players definitely want the 16-0. I would like the Chargers chances a lot better to win if they were at home. In Tomlinson and Alexander, the Colts will be going up against the top 2 RBs in the NFL. They haven't given up a lot of rush yards but about 4.2 ypc. Since most teams are trailing against the Colts they abandon the run early on. We'll find out if they are worthy.

BTW, the 1972 Dolphins had a ridiculously easy schedule. The winning percentage of their opponents was around 39%. If the Colts pull it off this year in a 16 game season, it will be far more impressive, IMO.

[toetoe]

The Colts only have to go 2-and-0. Not such a stretch to believe they can. At least 50/50, no?

[toetoe]

How about Grey's Huntington's next margin of victory versus Randy Moss' total yardage gained in his next "effort?"

[Valuist]

adding two totals:

Pitt/Minn UNDER 40 1/2--Pitt is 6-0-1 OVER at home but 0-6 UNDER on the road. Likely Cowher is more conservative on the road. Vikes D does one thing well: pick off passes. I don't think Big Ben throws much this week and its a heavy dose of Willie Parker and Bettis. Minny's offense doesn't scare anybody, let alone a solid D like Pittsburgh.

Atl/Chic UNDER 31 1/2--Bears are an UNDER machine. Urlacher has had big games last two times he faced Vick. Bears D is very fast and should keep Vick and Dunn in check. The Bears should be able to move the ball between the 20s on Atlanta's run D. Likely about 15 degrees w/wind chill of around zero which doesn't figure to help the kickers at all.

[SAL]

Buffalo/Denver Under 34.5 - Expecting less than balmy conditions this weekend at Buffalo again, one of the toughest places to play in Dec. I got unlucky last week when Buffalo scored a garbage TD late to beat my under. I'm expecting a heavy dose of running again here from both teams.

San Diego +8 - This line is way too high considering the circumstances. The Bolts are fighting for their playoff lives while Indy can remain on cruise control. Dungy will catch hell if any of his key players gets injured from here on out. Expect this one to be close.

Cleveland +3 - The Raiders are definitely a team in turmoil right now. Turner is probably on his way out as coach and the QB merry go round continues. The Browns played Cincy tough defensively last week and a similar effort here will mean victory. Frye didn't look too bad either.

[Valuist]

Adding BUFFALO +9 over Denver. Another big spread, low total game which dictates taking the points.

recap:
BUFFALO +9
NEW ENG -3 1/2
San Diego +9
Pitt -3
Pitt/Minn UNDER 40 1/2
Atl/Chic UNDER 31 1/2

[OTM Al]

A question for you guys, not being one who bets or really all that much watches NFL games, but concerning the Indy-SD game. How much do you take into account the fact that it is a 1pm start...ie 10am body time for the SD players. I had heard somewhere that west coast teams coming east for a 1pm start had pretty bad records. One would think that might even be worth a touchdowns difference in performance, so 9 points isn't as big as it seems. Just wonder what you all think about this.

[BetHorses!]

A question for you guys, not being one who bets or really all that much watches NFL games, but concerning the Indy-SD game. How much do you take into account the fact that it is a 1pm start...ie 10am body time for the SD players. I had heard somewhere that west coast teams coming east for a 1pm start had pretty bad records. One would think that might even be worth a touchdowns difference in performance, so 9 points isn't as big as it seems. Just wonder what you all think about this.


Those teams do have a bad record but for me it falls under Home field advantage so I do not factor any additional points. To penalize anybody 7 points for any disadvantage is pretty severe. My numbers tell me the Colts are 2 points better than SD on a neutral but after adding 4 points for Home Field, I make the game 6. (therefore its a take for me) I usually factor in 3 points for Home but my feeling is Home is worth more at the end of the season plus the playoffs as opposed to the early part of the season so I add 4 points to the Home teams rating.

[Valuist]

To me, climate change is a bigger factor than the start time. True, West Coast teams have had some struggles going east, but I think SD has really been pointing for this game. I think their mind was on it last week, when they were tripped up by Miami.

9 points is a huge spread for the NFL. I consider 6 and up to be somewhat sizeable in the NFL. For college football, I don't consider a spread big until it gets over 14.

I agree w/BH that home might be worth 4 for the Colts. I was in the RCA Dome a couple weeks ago and it can get quite loud.

[OTM Al]

Interesting guys, thanks for the insight.

[Valuist]

One other thing, the worse the team, the more likely they will get bothered by things like early starts or climate changes. The 2002 Bucs were 2-0 in games under 32 degrees but the franchise is winless in the cold in all other years. Then look at a team of misfits like the Raiders.....could they make the trip East to beat a weak Jets team? No, they couldn't handle it. But this San Diego team is a bit of a classier animal than the Raiders.

[BetHorses!]

Val,

Its not as cold as I would like it to be in New England. Game time forecast is 38 degrees.

[Valuist]

I just checked at weather.com. Yeah it said 38 degrees for a high but also winds up to 20 MPH. That will make for a wind chill factor. It won't be as cold as Soldier Field Sunday night but coming from 70 degrees I think the Bucs will notice it a bit.

[xfile]

I'm taking the Chargers +9 vs Colts....and if the Colts win I'm tripling up next week. And if they win again and go undefeated I'm buying a Peyton Manning jersey......lol....I CAN'T LOSE :D ...lol :cool:

[Buckeye]

I'd sit Peyton James and Harrison down . . .

These guys could have a month off!

Don't get the same feeling as with the 72 team, they couldn't lose.

This team (Colts) definitely could lose, although they are running out of chances to do so. :)

[BIG RED]

Just got an offer with a freind for a $200 bet of Pats game. I have to take the Pats, and after reading your posts, will take. We are watching the game with some others together, will make it much better. But get this, it's a pick'em!! Sorry to jump in but had to let you know that the positive feed here made me to decide.

[BetHorses!]

Just got an offer with a freind for a $200 bet of Pats game. I have to take the Pats, and after reading your posts, will take. We are watching the game with some others together, will make it much better. But get this, it's a pick'em!! Sorry to jump in but had to let you know that the positive feed here made me to decide.


Well you got the best of it game is up to 6. I have them in a survivor pool at pick also.

Good Luck! :ThmbUp:

[toetoe]

Big Red,

Well done. A shutout.

[BIG RED]

That was easy :cool: I love it when the loud mouths who can't lose picking against the hometeam lose ( and get very quiet). Didn't play horses yesterday, so, he made my day :jump: thx

[Valuist]

A pretty good week. 5-1 on the week and now 45-35-1 on the season (56%)