"Smart Money Detect-O-Meter"

[tedwin]

I am in the process of cleaning out things in my house including some old horse racing material. One of the things I encountered was a plastic device called the Smart Money Detect-o-Meter. It used to be marketed by the folks who publish American Turf Monthly, and I think first became available around 1960.

When I found it a couple of weeks ago I didn't think much about it. But I just checked it for a week of racing at the local track and was most surprised. The device lists average expected odds for the five lowest odds horses according to the number of entries in the field. In this little test, I checked the final odds of each of the five horses, and "picked" (after the race) the lowest odds horse who was bet down below the expected odds.

Much to my surprise, the results for this short period were pretty outstanding. There were 51 races, 25 winners, which returned $160.60 on $102 hypothetically invested.

Of course, that was only a week and one can not tell the real final odds of the horses ahead of time. But I thought if anyone happens to have a copy of this device it might be interesting if they made a check of it too. Or, if someone else has a supposedly old and outdated handicapping material that they don't use anymore, it may be interesting to check it out and let the readers of the board know how it did.

[GameTheory]

Let me understand this.

So it says something like,

"Field of 8, avg odds on the favorite are 2/1"

So *any* favorite in *any* field of 8 race that goes off below 2/1 is a smart money play?

[Jaguar]

Tedwin, it was great years ago. But, computer handicapping destroyed the amazing number of overlays which used to occur years ago.

I tried the Meter in the late 80's and early 90's. Today a first rate handicapping disc will knock out 12% profits on a daily basis, with no long runouts.

All the best,

Jaguar

[tedwin]

Game Theory, 1)in your illustration it says that the average odds of the facorite in 8 horse fields is 8-5.

2. The it goves the average odds of the other horses in the field - assuming the favorite is 8-5.

3. Then it has a moving circular disk which you move to show the actual odds of the favorite - and underneath that it shows the average odds of the remaing horses (based on the favorite's actual odds. For example, if the favorite's actual odds are 8-5 the second choice would be expected to have odds of 3-1 and the third choice would be expected to have odds of 9-2.

The numbers would change somewhat depending on what the odds of the favorite are.

[cj]

tedwin,

Does this mean the favorite is never the bet, but one of the 2nd through 5th choices?

CJ

[GameTheory]

Ahh... the plot thickens. Sounds interesting anyway. You should do a longer test and see if it continues to perform well...

[tedwin]

No, the favorite would be picked if its actual odds were lower than the favorite's expected odds for a field of that size.

I find it kind of interesting because it sort of goes in an opposite direction from looking for overlays. But, again, I'm not sure how practical it is today with as many odds changes there are in late betting - much of which doesn't seems to notshow up on the board until after a race begins.

[Triple Trio]

I'd think that whatever merits the method had in the past would no longer apply. Sophisticated bettors are very good at hiding their bets through so called "virtual win bets". For example, rather than playing horse 5 to win, they can play all the possible quinella/exacta/double combinations involving the 5 horse. So the win pools today are not the same as they were many years ago and whether average values established years ago would not be very meaningful now.

[jackad]

Jaguar,
Would you name some of those "first rate handicapping disks"? Hopefully some are commercially available. And, if possible, would you rank them as to effectiveness in your opinion?
Jack

[tanda]

I find it kind of interesting because it sort of goes in an opposite direction from looking for overlays.

You find looking in the opposite direction of overlays to be interesting?

The opposite of overlays are underlays. Underlays are guaranteed by their definition to lose money. You find losing money interesting?

[Lefty]

Tanda, I remember this old thing, had one in 60's and the profitable underlay is supposedly due to "smart money" so if in longrun it's profitable it's really a hidden low price overlay.
Mitchell's Allinone has a feature that trks underlays and overlays by track and at some tracks the underlays on prgm are profitable and overlays are not. There goes my Webster's.

[Amazin]

Tedwin

That device sounds similar to a "smart money method" told to me by an old veteran of the track who says it's the best system he ever found.His system uses the morning line.Only horses listed as 8-1 and up qualify.Then at post if they drop below that,that's the play.Worked good when I first started using it and for a while I experimented with it and didn't use the form.But then all my profits from it dissapeared and then some.It actually still works like I'm sure your device can still pick winners,but you have to add another dimension to it to make it profitable like finding out what factors contibuted to the system's pick either winning or losing.Then you might have something for the long run.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by tanda
You find looking in the opposite direction of overlays to be interesting?

The opposite of overlays are underlays. Underlays are guaranteed by their definition to lose money. You find losing money interesting?

He obviously meant it was unusual in the sense that you are looking for odds to be BELOW some threshold as opposed to ABOVE it, which would be the usual method of "looking for overlays". The opposite of the normal way of finding overlays, not the opposite of overlays themselves.



Originally posted by Triple Trio
I'd think that whatever merits the method had in the past would no longer apply.

Very possibly true, but there is no need for conjecture. It would be easy enough to test this device with a set of result charts. If successful, then you'd just have to see if that performance could be maintained while using the pre-post time odds.


Originally posted by Jaguar
But, computer handicapping destroyed the amazing number of overlays which used to occur years ago.


Do others agree with this statement? That computers have done this? I'm skeptical.

[Zaf]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Tedwin, it was great years ago. But, computer handicapping destroyed the amazing number of overlays which used to occur years ago.

I tried the Meter in the late 80's and early 90's. Today a first rate handicapping disc will knock out 12% profits on a daily basis, with no long runouts.

All the best,

Jaguar

Jaguar,

Would you please be so kind to list a few of these. At 12% a day I would be able to quit my day job and retire in Belize by the end of the year. Thanks,

ZAFONIC

[Jaguar]

Regarding the effectiveness of currently available horse handicapping discs, obviously everyone handicaps differently and prefers certain handicapping approaches.

Therefor, handicappers will ardently defend their favorite methods, while other- equally talented- horseplayers will turn up their noses at a given program.

Even though we are in the Windows-Internet Age of handicapping, when amazingly sophisticated computer programs are issuing forth every few months, some handicapping diehards swear by 10-year-old Dos programs which have to be run under System Commander.

People like what is familiar and what has made money for them in the past.

All that aside, from my personal experience, having owned about $10,000-$12,000 dollars of horse software, and having used a variety of borrowed programs, and having observed my friends at OTB using an endless array of Sartin programs, here is my list of what I consider to be the most comprehensive and effective money- makers at the racetrack.

Please bear in mind that some of these programs require time-consuming model-making before they demonstrate their true power and accuracy.

In alphabetical order: All-Ways, The Handicapper Magician, HorseSense, RaceCom5, and Thorobrain5.

The 2 absolutely Gonzo, state-of-the-art programs, are RaceCom and Thorobrain, which show results only dreamed of by serious handicappers just a few years ago.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Jaguar]

Game Theory, I can confirm my point regarding the diminished number of overlays on the odds board by referring to the lamentations made by former Dr. Z. fans who have seen the marvelous old place and show overlays we used to stumble on disappear like snow in the springtime.

The computer onslaught has not destroyed the marvelous value we can still find in the exotic and the win pools, but it has really gutted the place and show pools.

I gave my hard-wired HP41CV Dr. Z. calculator away several years ago, when I had to face the inevitable- the party was over.

Yet another $400 down the drain.

Handicapping ain't cheap, but it sure is fun.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Zaf]

Originally posted by Jaguar


In alphabetical order: All-Ways, The Handicapper Magician, HorseSense, RaceCom5, and Thorobrain5.

The 2 absolutely Gonzo, state-of-the-art programs, are RaceCom and Thorobrain, which show results only dreamed of by serious handicappers just a few years ago.

All the best,

Jaguar

I will probably give the Pizzolla program a shot. I am doing well using the handicapping magic technique with a pen and paper.

Thanks ZAFONIC

[soosjs]

To : Jaquar

How much is Race Com 5 and Thorobrain 5 and where can they be purchased? I'm looking for a new program. Regards, Fastaway