DO " FAT " HORSES WIN ?

[karlskorner]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=2937

[twindouble]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=2937

That was interesting to read but that's as far as I'll take it. Like he said, there's an overload of information that exists now, what's next? Taking their temp prior to racing? knowing what they had to eat yesterday? I can see it now, "Super trainer's winning diets." Inside information for $50.00.

[Wiley]

A better effort from the guy that complained about the 'too big' of fields at Churchill effecting his lame plays.
A thing he did not mention was just a horse off his feed would most likely be on the downside of form so a drop in weight could help there though a good observer who keeps notes could probably do as well by coat brillance and holding flesh.
I am for including the weight of the horse prior to each race.
Do most barns or paddocks have scales so this could be recorded in the PP's?

[schweitz]

About 10 yrs ago Remington Park provided each horse'e weight in their track program---I never could figure a way to benefit from this information.

[Dr. Carter]

Few barns have scales but they may be a valuable tool in trying to determine a horses condition without actually seeing the horse as most simo players dont. A horse that is losing signifigant weight may be in a downward cycle.

[cj]

They also used to do this at Freehold, and still might for all I know. It seemed to be completely irrelevant to how the horses actually performed no matter what angle(s) I used to try to gain an edge with this info.

[BIG49010]

they do it in Hong Kong

[RaceIsClosed]

I decided recently to try a $2 experiment by betting to win, the horse I found most visually impressive in the paddock. I settled on the #8 horse (this was at Philadelphia Park), and put my money on him. He had a nice stride, seemed to be alert, wasn't sweating, and had what I thought was good body language.

He finished 15 seconds behind the field.

[so.cal.fan]

Schweitz?
Really, I would love to have that information. Often times horses will lose a lot of weight after a tough race......and they always lose.

[schweitz]

Schweitz?
Really, I would love to have that information. Often times horses will lose a lot of weight after a tough race......and they always lose.

That's one of the ways I tried to use the info but I couldn't find a consistent correlation. Maybe it was because of those cheap Oklahoma horses.

[boxcar]

He finished 15 seconds behind the field.

I guess no one bothered to check with this good lookin' beast to see if he was in the running mood. :D

Boxcar

[Wiley]

I decided recently to try a $2 experiment by betting to win, the horse I found most visually impressive in the paddock. I settled on the #8 horse (this was at Philadelphia Park), and put my money on him. He had a nice stride, seemed to be alert, wasn't sweating, and had what I thought was good body language.

He finished 15 seconds behind the field.

Like any handicapping analysis isolating one factor in selecting a winner rarely if ever produces much success. Appearance or change in appearance is a tool to use along with other relevant criteria like whether or not the horse has the speed or endurance to compete under the current race conditions. A horse might look like crap but still be good enough to beat others in certain conditions.

High Chapparal to me in both BC turf events a few years ago looked poor on the track but still managed to win these events taking my wagers down with him. Falbrav on the other hand in '03 looked to me like the picture of the perfect horse and I thought he was a lock but his breeding ran out on him the last 1/16th of a mile.

[boxcar]

Like any handicapping analysis isolating one factor in selecting a winner rarely if ever produces much success.


If there's such a thing as a handicapping maxim, this is the one! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

There was a VERY good Q-back a few years back at LSU, who was overweight, but was just a gazelle and accurate too. It is not the package that represents the whole thing.