DrugSalvastore
12-06-2005, 06:10 AM
Get ready for dog tips from the one-time greatest pre-teenage dog handicapper ever.
I saw a thread on here asking for a Dog racing folder, only because I can't fall asleep tonight---will I subject you poor people to the torture of a painfully in-depth thread on handicapping dogs and how it directly relates to the horses.
I spent summers in Florida (with grandma and grandpa) as a kid.., I'm about to lose any credibilty I've ever had on this board by saying the following, but I actually bet the dogs to a profit as a boy---and furthermore, I steadfastly believe that without my experience from handicapping dog races, I would never have been the skilled and successful horse player that I am now.
* IMO, You will NEVER make any kind of a dependable living betting the dogs because of the small betting pools, high takeout, and lack of rebate. IMO, it's the best game around for a small bettor though...and it will make you a much better horse player. The existence of jackpot carryovers on extremely hard-to-hit bets do create excitement. For example, there was a $110K carryover in the Tri-Super at Derby Lane going into Monday's card. Another big plus is that the greyhound industry offers FREE and MUCH BETTER information on it's product than the horse industry. Now to handicapping....
* THE DRAW- Post Position is much more important in dog racing than it is in horse racing. Dogs have tendencies to favor certain paths of the track, and they will sprint to them even at their own expense. Trip trouble is common in almost every dog race--but much of the time, the trouble that will occur is predictable. If you have a superior breaker in box 7, who prefers to dart inside to the rail at once, it is possible that he will cut-off or even collide with serveral dogs drawn inside of him. This example would create very favorable circumstances to the dog in Box 8. A good breaking dog drawn inside, with a habit of bolting out right away, can obviously hinder dogs to his outside, and make life easier for dogs drawn further in.
Post Position Bias is a very real factor in dog racing as well. So far at Derby Lane (the dog track with the biggest handle in FLA I think) there have been 1268 races run at the distance of 5/16ths. Here are the wins for each post.
POST 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
WINS 248 182 160 153 161 115 114 135
Since exactly eight greyhounds run in every single race, it doesn't take a wizard to figure out that an inside bias is in play at this track. The 248 wins from Box one are 19 more than the 229 from boxes 6 and 7 combined. Every track is a little different, but the 8 box is the ideal post at a lot of tracks. The great greyhound TalentedMrRipley preferred outside draws, he had 31 wins and 3 seconds in 34 lifetime races when breaking from boxes 6, 7, & 8. His three losses from wide draws, all came at Derby Lane, at the expense of dogs breaking from post one.
* The First Turn- The more predictable chaos happens at the start, the first turn is where a lot of the bad stuff really goes down....ideally you want a dog who will be positioned clear of traffic going into the turn--but in a lot of instances, you will be betting dogs who can get unlucky, and lose their race on this first turn. It's a risk that comes with the game. Take note of all dogs who habitally race recklessly around this turn...and also take note of dogs who are skilled at maneuvering out of trecherous looking situations around the turn. It's really good to know the racing habits of as many dogs as you can.
* Time and Class- It's an extremely good idea to have par final times for each class of dog at the track you bet, and make adjusted final times for each day. I'll use the current pars at Derby Lane for example. Below is the average winning final time for each class level.
RACE GRADE 5/16ths 3/8ths
A 30.92 37.73
B 31.03 38.14
C 31.13 38.23
D 31.25 38.33
M 31.22
Any serious horse bettor knows that raw final time alone is pretty much worthless, mainly because it doesn't take into account the speed of the track itself. I'll use the Thanksgiving Day card at Derby Lane for example. They ran all 14 races at 5/16ths that day. I sort the final time for each class level that day.
M 31.50
D 31.25, 31.31, 31.24, 31.09, 31.34, 31.35
C 30.79, 30.72, 30.94, 30.89
B 30.67, 30.88
A 30.97
You can see that the track speed was quite normal that day. Offically, my math has the track playing 0.08 seconds faster than par. The track speed isn't always that honest though, for example, four days later every race on the card went slower than par, and the track graded out 0.47 seconds slow.
Now, I like to write in my spiral notebook the fastest adjusted race of the day from a class standpoint. On the card above, the Grade C race that went in 30.72 was the fastest race all day long. On raw time, the Grade B that went 30.67 is the day's fastest time--but, the average Grade C race goes .10 slower...so adjusted for class, it was the swiftest one all day long. In fact, the winner of that race (Tulin Riffraff) came back to win in Grade B by five lengths two starts later. The 2nd place finisher of that race (CB Slam Home) came back to win each of his next two starts by 5 lengths and 4 lengths respectively. The 3rd place dog out of that race also won back two starts later. So that race indeed proved productive.
* KEEP GOOD NOTES- I don't know how you can take seriously any horse bettor who doesn't carry a spiral notebook around with him containing his own personal thoughts, notes, and opinions regarding each individual race and each day. Just like with horses, if a dog race looks strong on paper, for the level, going into the race...write it into your notes. If it looks very weak right that into the notebook. Write worthwhile tidbits and all trip and race circumstance information into the notes as well. You will forget a lot of this stuff later on if you don't. It's a huge luxery to have all that good personalized information available to you later on. You need every edge you can get--and it's just pure laziness to not do this.
Many dog tracks run 14 races a card---and eight-to-ten cards a week---if you can stand up to betting at that intense a schedule, you will find nine races a card--and five cards a week to be a piece of cake. Nothing is going on with horse racing right now, we have the Gulfstream and Santa Anita meetings right around the corner, spend the next two weeks (like me) prepping for those meetings by playing the puppies. That's what I'm doing. I strongly believe I'm sharpening myself up as opposed to burning myself out. Now that I've shared with you everything I know about dog handicapping, hopefully I can fall asleep till 11:45
I saw a thread on here asking for a Dog racing folder, only because I can't fall asleep tonight---will I subject you poor people to the torture of a painfully in-depth thread on handicapping dogs and how it directly relates to the horses.
I spent summers in Florida (with grandma and grandpa) as a kid.., I'm about to lose any credibilty I've ever had on this board by saying the following, but I actually bet the dogs to a profit as a boy---and furthermore, I steadfastly believe that without my experience from handicapping dog races, I would never have been the skilled and successful horse player that I am now.
* IMO, You will NEVER make any kind of a dependable living betting the dogs because of the small betting pools, high takeout, and lack of rebate. IMO, it's the best game around for a small bettor though...and it will make you a much better horse player. The existence of jackpot carryovers on extremely hard-to-hit bets do create excitement. For example, there was a $110K carryover in the Tri-Super at Derby Lane going into Monday's card. Another big plus is that the greyhound industry offers FREE and MUCH BETTER information on it's product than the horse industry. Now to handicapping....
* THE DRAW- Post Position is much more important in dog racing than it is in horse racing. Dogs have tendencies to favor certain paths of the track, and they will sprint to them even at their own expense. Trip trouble is common in almost every dog race--but much of the time, the trouble that will occur is predictable. If you have a superior breaker in box 7, who prefers to dart inside to the rail at once, it is possible that he will cut-off or even collide with serveral dogs drawn inside of him. This example would create very favorable circumstances to the dog in Box 8. A good breaking dog drawn inside, with a habit of bolting out right away, can obviously hinder dogs to his outside, and make life easier for dogs drawn further in.
Post Position Bias is a very real factor in dog racing as well. So far at Derby Lane (the dog track with the biggest handle in FLA I think) there have been 1268 races run at the distance of 5/16ths. Here are the wins for each post.
POST 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
WINS 248 182 160 153 161 115 114 135
Since exactly eight greyhounds run in every single race, it doesn't take a wizard to figure out that an inside bias is in play at this track. The 248 wins from Box one are 19 more than the 229 from boxes 6 and 7 combined. Every track is a little different, but the 8 box is the ideal post at a lot of tracks. The great greyhound TalentedMrRipley preferred outside draws, he had 31 wins and 3 seconds in 34 lifetime races when breaking from boxes 6, 7, & 8. His three losses from wide draws, all came at Derby Lane, at the expense of dogs breaking from post one.
* The First Turn- The more predictable chaos happens at the start, the first turn is where a lot of the bad stuff really goes down....ideally you want a dog who will be positioned clear of traffic going into the turn--but in a lot of instances, you will be betting dogs who can get unlucky, and lose their race on this first turn. It's a risk that comes with the game. Take note of all dogs who habitally race recklessly around this turn...and also take note of dogs who are skilled at maneuvering out of trecherous looking situations around the turn. It's really good to know the racing habits of as many dogs as you can.
* Time and Class- It's an extremely good idea to have par final times for each class of dog at the track you bet, and make adjusted final times for each day. I'll use the current pars at Derby Lane for example. Below is the average winning final time for each class level.
RACE GRADE 5/16ths 3/8ths
A 30.92 37.73
B 31.03 38.14
C 31.13 38.23
D 31.25 38.33
M 31.22
Any serious horse bettor knows that raw final time alone is pretty much worthless, mainly because it doesn't take into account the speed of the track itself. I'll use the Thanksgiving Day card at Derby Lane for example. They ran all 14 races at 5/16ths that day. I sort the final time for each class level that day.
M 31.50
D 31.25, 31.31, 31.24, 31.09, 31.34, 31.35
C 30.79, 30.72, 30.94, 30.89
B 30.67, 30.88
A 30.97
You can see that the track speed was quite normal that day. Offically, my math has the track playing 0.08 seconds faster than par. The track speed isn't always that honest though, for example, four days later every race on the card went slower than par, and the track graded out 0.47 seconds slow.
Now, I like to write in my spiral notebook the fastest adjusted race of the day from a class standpoint. On the card above, the Grade C race that went in 30.72 was the fastest race all day long. On raw time, the Grade B that went 30.67 is the day's fastest time--but, the average Grade C race goes .10 slower...so adjusted for class, it was the swiftest one all day long. In fact, the winner of that race (Tulin Riffraff) came back to win in Grade B by five lengths two starts later. The 2nd place finisher of that race (CB Slam Home) came back to win each of his next two starts by 5 lengths and 4 lengths respectively. The 3rd place dog out of that race also won back two starts later. So that race indeed proved productive.
* KEEP GOOD NOTES- I don't know how you can take seriously any horse bettor who doesn't carry a spiral notebook around with him containing his own personal thoughts, notes, and opinions regarding each individual race and each day. Just like with horses, if a dog race looks strong on paper, for the level, going into the race...write it into your notes. If it looks very weak right that into the notebook. Write worthwhile tidbits and all trip and race circumstance information into the notes as well. You will forget a lot of this stuff later on if you don't. It's a huge luxery to have all that good personalized information available to you later on. You need every edge you can get--and it's just pure laziness to not do this.
Many dog tracks run 14 races a card---and eight-to-ten cards a week---if you can stand up to betting at that intense a schedule, you will find nine races a card--and five cards a week to be a piece of cake. Nothing is going on with horse racing right now, we have the Gulfstream and Santa Anita meetings right around the corner, spend the next two weeks (like me) prepping for those meetings by playing the puppies. That's what I'm doing. I strongly believe I'm sharpening myself up as opposed to burning myself out. Now that I've shared with you everything I know about dog handicapping, hopefully I can fall asleep till 11:45