Track to track adjustments

[banacek]

Is there any publication that gives par times for harness races, like Cythia's or Horsestreet's. I keep playing around with the Woodbine circuit and would even just be happy to have a reasonable idea of how much faster WO is than the rest of the tracks on the circuit (like Geo, FlmD, Lon, etc.). I don't like the times the USTA and Standardbred Canada give to make the adjustment. I just don't buy them.

[wilderness]

You mean "variants"?

http://www.ustrotting.com/speed_ratings/speed_ratings.cfm

Canadian
http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/statistics/speedratings.html

[banacek]

You mean "variants"?

http://www.ustrotting.com/speed_ratings/speed_ratings.cfm

Canadian
http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/statistics/speedratings.html

Yeah, those are the ones I mentioned in my first post. I don't believe them and wondered if there was some place where I could get more accurate ones.

[wilderness]

variants are based on some spastic formula for "average" times.
It may have been useful decades ago when surfaces and tracks were basically the same.

Today there is such a wide vareity in banking and surfaces that finding something useful would be a task.
Especially in Ontario where slots/purses have created such a wide variety in the ranges of competition. (Just 15-years ago a 15k claimer at Flamboro could hardly be competitive at WEG/ORC at the same price.)

More and more trainers are shipping out-of-bounds of one-time circuits to find races and purses for their horses. It makes an interesting mix.

I've attempted to handicap some of the non-WEG Ontario tracks (somthing I was quite good at years ago) with very little success. Gettting a grasp on the competive horses in these smaller locales is tough. Getting odds in most of the very small wagering pools is even tougher. (The tracks and horsemen don't need the wagering public as they are pimped by the slots.)

Even Windosr Raceway (a place I've spent many a night at) has become more difficult to handicap.

[banacek]

Today there is such a wide vareity in banking and surfaces that finding something useful would be a task.
.

Agreed. I just wondered if there was anything commercially available that would help. Handicapping Woodbine is a mixture of many tracks every day. It is rare that you get more than a race or two where the horse's last race was over Woodbine this time of year. I use the USTA and StandardbredCanada ones as a very rough guideline, but they leave a lot lacking. It would take a vast amount of work to do it, but it is possible. Probably not enough money for someone to do standardbreds - but the thoroughbreds have Cynthia and Horsestreet to name 2 that do it.

[JoeG]

I agree with both of you on this. First the generic speed ratings that are posted are flawed. Some of the errors are large. Wilderness is right on in his take that it difficult to compare class at many track with the influx of slot money among other factors. I create speed ratings on my own but they don't work at certain tracks like Woodbine. Some tracks like Dover and meadowlands I have less of a problem dealing with.

I have created a crude track-to-track adjustment but its over a year old and I haven't updated it. If I can find the basic file I'll post it.

[banacek]

I have created a crude track-to-track adjustment but its over a year old and I haven't updated it. If I can find the basic file I'll post it.

Thanks Joe. If you could find them I'd appreciate it.

What do you guys think about the new announcer at Woodbine - I don't like him, but maybe in time........

[wilderness]

"What do you guys think about the new announcer at Woodbine"

Ken has a different voice and style than Frank Salive, however in all fairness?
Are you able to recall hearing Frank (for a valid comparison) when he was both young and first started?

Ken Middleton has been a subscriber on a harness list that I've had for more than six years.
Ken is a dedicated and thoughful individual.

If only he'd learn not shout into the microphone :)
The last races that I watched from there, it sounded like he was little horsey in his voice?
Perhaps that's part of announcing nightly and will take some adjustment on his voice box and tones?

Ken posts occassionally on the harness driver/WEG board.

[banacek]

"Ken has a different voice and style than Frank Salive, however in all fairness?
Are you able to recall hearing Frank (for a valid comparison) when he was both young and first started?

Ken Middleton has been a subscriber on a harness list that I've had for more than six years.
Ken is a dedicated and thoughful individual.

If only he'd learn not shout into the microphone :)
The last races that I watched from there, it sounded like he was little horsey in his voice?
Perhaps that's part of announcing nightly and will take some adjustment on his voice box and tones?

Ken posts occassionally on the harness driver/WEG board.

It is hard getting used to but I'll give him time. A couple of times he's called the wrong horse at the finish - he's got to watch that in particular. Just say photo finish!

[wilderness]

"A couple of times he's called the wrong horse"

All announcers do!
McKee, Wakentin, Houston, Bergstein (in his time).

Jack Riggs called the Detroit Circuit for years and I even recall he calling wrong horses.

Perhaps some day the horses will have a microchip and the tracks will be able to reduce their payroll a little more by booting the announcers :)
Of course by then, their won't be any fans anyway, or even worse wagering public.

[Tom]

I gave up trying to adjsut times for harness - I no longer really use time as a factor at all. If a horse runs within two seconds or so, I just equalize all the times and look for fast fractions (moves) within the race, loosely based on the ideas in Steve Chaplin's books.

He suggested breaking the final time into four equal quarters, and the then calling a quarter fast or slow if it was 2/5's faster or slower than the average quarter. My program works a lot like Sartin's old "meridian adjustment" wehre total energy (final harness time) is equalized for all horses.

[andicap]

You could also conceivably do what Randy Giles has done for the t-breds and figure out the proper energy balance at each track between pace and final times. A horse who runs 1:12 final time but presses or sets a 47 pace time gets downgraded at most tracks. You do a 1:12 and press a 44, you get rewarded. He then adjusts his final speed figure but you don't have to take that last step-- you could just arrive at a "pace velocity," that is was the pace X ticks fast or slow for the final time.

[norm f]

I find that trackmaster speed ratings are pretty consistent.

[melman]

I think Ken will work out OK at Woodbine, he has a tough job following Frank Salive who is the best in the business. Banacek join us in the War Room some time we have our own harness corner there. I must say the corner is getting crowded as it is the "cash corner" :lol:

[headhawg]

I think Ken will work out OK at Woodbine, he has a tough job following Frank Salive who is the best in the business. Banacek join us in the War Room some time we have our own harness corner there. I must say the corner is getting crowded as it is the "cash corner" :lol:
It's crowded because everyone thinks that your avatar will appear in the WR as well. :D

[toetoe]

Oh, no! That's not the Beulah Twins sitting four abreast, is it?

I checked out DD tonight and they're almost done at 8:00 ET!

[traynor]

Tom wrote: <He suggested breaking the final time into four equal quarters, and the then calling a quarter fast or slow if it was 2/5's faster or slower than the average quarter. My program works a lot like Sartin's old "meridian adjustment" wehre total energy (final harness time) is equalized for all horses.>

It is an interesting concept, especially given the fact that a lot of people adjust themselves right out of a winning ticket. Burkan used essentially the same principle for Power\Pace. The problem then becomes that comparing "moves" is as misleading as comparing times; the difficulty of completing a move depends almost entirely on the other entries, and how, when, and how vigorously they are making their moves.

I did a solid test of meridian variants on a database of about 12,000 races on the New York/Ontario/Quebec circuits a few years ago and gave it up as one of those "interesting, but not especially useful" theories. At least as far as harness races are concerned.

Tom, have you ever tried Igor Kusyshyn's (the "Lance Humble" of Hi-Opt II blackjack) Professional Point Count? It is based heavily on final times and final quarters, and a number of fairly successful professionals are using it on the New York/Ontario races with impressive results. I don't know if Kusyshyn still offers it, but the basic formula is in Harness Racing Gold. The only real difference is that last races are rated a little more heavily in the "Professional" version.
Good Luck

[Tom]

I have Harness Racing Gold...got in a bundle deal of the net.....thumbed through it some but have not read it yet. It just got to the top of the stack for holiday reading.

Thanks for the heads up.