How to make money? (Continuing...)

[Nikjak]

Nikjak: (from How to Make Money thread)

Continuing: Start: 2000.00 Current: 1220.00
Gim's: 1000.00 Current: 845.00

-------------------------------
Mountaineer Race 1: 100 win place #6
20.00 DD 6--1

[Nikjak]

Nikjak: (from How to Make Money thread)

Continuing: Start: 2000.00 Current: 1220.00
Gim's: 1000.00 Current: 845.00

-------------------------------
Mountaineer Race 1: 100 win place #6
20.00 DD 6--1
#6 ran 2nd.....paid 8.40....gained 220
-----------------------
Current: 1440.00
Gim's: 825.00

Next: Mountaineer Race 2: 100 win/place # 1

[Nikjak]

#1 in the 2nd at MP ran 2nd, paid 4.00....so broke even on the investment.


Start: 2000.00 Current: 1440.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 825.00

[Nikjak]

[QUOTE=Nikjak

Start: 2000.00 Current: 1440.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 825.00[/QUOTE]


Dec 5, day 5:

Calder Race 6: 100 win # 2 100 place # 3
20.00 Exacta 2--3

[Nikjak]

% recap as of Dec 5, day 5:

Win 3 out 12
Place 6 out of 12
Show 8 out of 12

(One DQ, from 1st to 4th)

[Nikjak]

% recap as of Dec 5, day 5:

Win 3 out 13
Place 6 out of 13
Show 9 out of 13
(One DQ, from 1st to 4th)

Start 2000.00 Current: 1220.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 825.00
---------------------
Next: Calder: Race 8 200 win #3

[Nikjak]

Start 2000.00 Current: 1220.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 825.00
---------------------
Next: Calder: Race 8 200 win #3


Won: paid 5.40

Current: 1560.00
Gimmicks: 825.00

[banacek]

Dec 5, day 5:

Calder Race 6: 100 win # 2 100 place # 3
20.00 Exacta 2--3

Seems like you shorted yourself. Didn't you win your place bet here?

3Donna Is a Dish 7.00 3.80 2.20

[Nikjak]

Seems like you shorted yourself. Didn't you win your place bet here?

3Donna Is a Dish 7.00 3.80 2.20



Yep. You're correct. Thanks.

[Nikjak]

Dec 5...Day 5 Recap:

Win: 4/14 Place: 8/15 Show: 12/15

Start: 2000.00 Current: 1770.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 825.00

---------------
Might look at Mountaineer later.....

[Nikjak]

Start: 2000.00 Current: 1770.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 825.00


Philly Race 1: 20.00 exacta 5--3

[Nikjak]

So far: Win: 4 out of 14
Place: 8 out of 15
Show: 12 out of 15

Start: 2000.000 Current: 1770.00 (1570 after investment below)
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 805.00 (if exacta at Philly race 1 misses)
-----------------
Philly Race 3: 100 win/place # 3

[Nikjak]

So far: Win: 4 out of 14
Place: 8 out of 15
Show: 12 out of 15

Start: 2000.000 Current: 1770.00 (1570 after investment below)
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 805.00 (if exacta at Philly race 1 misses)
-----------------
Philly Race 3: 100 win/place # 3


Dec 6. 6th day........Win: 4 out 15 Place: 8 out 16 Show: 12 out of 16
Start: 2000.00 Current 1570.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 805.00
---------------------
Tomorrow, Dec 7, Aqu and Haw will be the investment interests.

[Nikjak]

Dec 6. 6th day........Win: 4 out 15 Place: 8 out 16 Show: 12 out of 16
Start: 2000.00 Current 1570.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 805.00

-----------------------------------------------

Dec 7th, 7th day:

Aqu Race 1: 20.00 DD 1a with 1

Aqu Race 2: 18.00 exacta 1--7 2.00 exacta 7--1

Aqu Race 2: 100 win #1 100 place #7

[Nikjak]

Start: 2000.00 Current 1370.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 765.00

-----------------------------------------------

Dec 7th, 7th day:

Aqu Race 1: 20.00 DD 1a with 1

Aqu Race 2: 18.00 exacta 1--7 2.00 exacta 7--1

Aqu Race 2: 100 win #1 100 place #7[/QUOTE]

Aqu best missed.

------------------
Next: Haw Race 1 200.00 win # 5

[BIG RED]

Nikjak, if you're playing live, you should jump in and join us in the warroom.

[Nikjak]

Dec 7, 7th day

Start: 2000.00 Current: 1170.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 765.00
---------------------------
Next: Penn National Race 9 100 win/place # 5

[Nikjak]

Nikjak, if you're playing live, you should jump in and join us in the warroom.

Will think about it.....lots going on, though....

[BIG RED]

Just little 'ole me left, everyone went to count their money :cool: Been doing well at NY today.

Hope the best for ya

[Buckeye]

Come on Nijak, get your act together!

I'm rooting for you.

[Buckeye]

Good point Red.

Better live than dead I always say.

[Nikjak]

Come on Nijak, get your act together!

I'm rooting for you.


Guess I'll be coming "from off the pace"?

But! Still have over half my bankroll, and over three weeks to go.....fat lady may be hummin' but not singin' yet....

[Nikjak]

End of Day 7:

Start 2000.00 Current 970.00

Gimmicks 1000.00 765.00

Win: 4 out of 17 Place 8 out of 18 Show 13 out of 18

[Nikjak]

End of Day 7:

Start 2000.00 Current 970.00

Gimmicks 1000.00 765.00

Win: 4 out of 17 Place 8 out of 18 Show 13 out of 18


Aqu Race 2: 100 win/place # 6
20.00 exacta 6--7

[Nikjak]

Aqu Race 2: 100 win/place # 6
20.00 exacta 6--7


Above missed:


Next: Calder Race 10..... 200 win #5
20.00 exacta 5--8

[cj]

The selections are proving to be more fundamentally flawed than the money management system. JMHO on the races you have picked that I actually handicapped.

[joeyspicks]

NIKJAK; I give you points for persaverance.......however


.... IF you are betting real dollars pull out now, take aprox $53 and buy Dave Schwartz's money management publications (and after reading CJ's post....maybe the software too!)
You are destined to bust (around Sunday at current rate)...but even if you dont this has NO long term viability.

[Vegas711]

Do not give up.Keep plugging away, your luck may change.


If you need a loan I am only asking 16.5%, thats better than the track take.:lol:

[Nikjak]

Dec.9

Start 2000.00 Current 570.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current 725.00
Win: 4 out of 19
Place: 8 out of 20
Show: 13 out of 20
---------------------------
Calder Race 2: 100 win/place # 8
Calder Race 5: 100 win/place # 3

[hurrikane]

This is a perfect example of why you do not bet 10% of your bankroll.

[Suff]

making money. lol. only one way by my math, and i done it! believe dat.



http://www.paceadvantage.com/gallery/2003_PaceAdvantage_Saratoga_Getaway/25_G

[cj]

making money. lol. only one way by my math, and i done it! believe dat.



http://www.paceadvantage.com/gallery/2003_PaceAdvantage_Saratoga_Getaway/25_G

I'm in trouble then, I've been gelded. :mad:

[Suff]

I seen your balls on the roof. Your left one rolled off. I grabbed a pitch fork and scooped it and tossed it back.


Threw it to hard and it ended up in a pile of..........well. You know.

I tried

[Nikjak]

Start: 2000.00 Current: 170.00

Gimmicks: 1000.00 725.00


Turf Paradise: Race 8: 20.00 DD 2--8
Race 8: 170.00 to place

[Nikjak]

Start: 2000.00 Current: 170.00

Gimmicks: 1000.00 725.00


Turf Paradise: Race 8: 20.00 DD 2--8
Race 8: 170.00 to place


.....Race 8 at Turf, 170 place # 2 (forgot the number)

[Nikjak]

Turf Paradise Race 9: 200 place #8

[cj]

Your bets are getting worse. Seriously, this thread could be the Degenerate 101 bible if you are betting real cash.

The 3 looks like the horse to beat to me in the 9th at TuP.

[Vegas711]

I have deposited $ 2000 into your account. Time for round 2.Everyone deserves a 2nd chance, so go for it.

[Suff]

making money. lol. only one way by my math, and i done it! believe dat.



http://www.paceadvantage.com/gallery/2003_PaceAdvantage_Saratoga_Getaway/25_G

moere looks

[John]

Yeah 2003 .What a year that was at Saratoga. We still talk about it.

[Nikjak]

55 left in the main bankroll:

705.00 left in the gimmicks
-----------------------

Dec 10th:

Calder Race 11: 55.00 to win # 10 (must stay turf)
20.00 DD 10--7

[Nikjak]

I have deposited $ 2000 into your account. Time for round 2.Everyone deserves a 2nd chance, so go for it.


Well, much appreciated. The 'gimmick' money is still working, and may
provide that infusion. Actually, all is quite normal since this avenue can recoup
rather quickly. We'll see. (Evidently, some have "forgotten" the original premise
was to start with 2000 to 5000....but, again, we'll see...)

[Knute Chapman]

Well, at least you put it out there Nikjak. :ThmbUp: It was actually educational to monitor your picks and bankroll. I have no opinion about your selections, but believe that 10% of your bankroll is too much. It didn't seem to me that there was any protection against a losing run of picks, which can happen at anytime, and it did.

[Buckeye]

Looking forward to January, no seriously, there's always February, no really, take a more serious view of luck and reduce the 10% per race thing. Not only that, but tie your percentage of bank wagered to win% and ROI.

Respect you for going out on a limb and challenging us. Not too many have the guts to do that.

[Nikjak]

Well, at least you put it out there Nikjak. :ThmbUp: It was actually educational to monitor your picks and bankroll. I have no opinion about your selections, but believe that 10% of your bankroll is too much. It didn't seem to me that there was any protection against a losing run of picks, which can happen at anytime, and it did.


Well, stay tuned. As I said, there is still gimmick money extant. If that creates any profit, then the original bankroll has a chance to recoup and most likely will. As for the 10%, I normally don't use that, but instead use a 20% progression, betting more when winning, less when losing. But 10% works just fine. Still 20 days in this month for one or two decent exactas or DD's.....then, back in business.

[Nikjak]

Looking forward to January, no seriously, there's always February, no really, take a more serious view of luck and reduce the 10% per race thing. Not only that, but tie your percentage of bank wagered to win% and ROI.

Respect you for going out on a limb and challenging us. Not too many have the guts to do that.


Tain't over yet....

[Nikjak]

Your bets are getting worse. Seriously, this thread could be the Degenerate 101 bible if you are betting real cash.

The 3 looks like the horse to beat to me in the 9th at TuP.


You seem to want to "engage" in some fashion, and that's fine. You're welcome to comment on anything I do or post. The more negativity the better for my envisioned outcome......:rolleyes:

[Nikjak]

Start 2000.00 Current 55.00
Gimmicks: 1000.00 705.00
-----------------------------------------
Continuing on for these reasons:
a) to show the 200.00 base unit does work
b) to show that any investment endeavor is never a sprint but a
marathon
c) to prove the detractors wrong
----------------------------------------
When and if the final 55.00 is used and the original 2000 is tapped (recalling that the premise was from 2000 to 5000, overlooked by many), an "asterisk" will be used to denote the separation of the 2000 from "other" bankroll enhancements--such as the other "3000" available, or the 2000 gift from Vegas711.
----------------------------------------
Philly Race 2: 55 to place on # 12.

[cj]

You seem to want to "engage" in some fashion, and that's fine. You're welcome to comment on anything I do or post. The more negativity the better for my envisioned outcome......:rolleyes:

If I seem to come across mean, that isn't the purpose. I'm sure you are a nice guy that means well, and I assure you I try to be a nice guy.

That said, here is why I am posting in this thread. First, I don't think making win bets of $200 is very smart if you only have a bankroll of "2,000 to 5,000". That is a huge range of a bankroll, so while $200 is too much for 2,000, it probably isn't too bad for 5,000, though I still think it is too high.

Am I right? Well, definitely for $2,000, as your picks have proved. You wind up doing things like betting $200 to place on 3-5 favorites as you did just trying to stay afloat. If you really only had a 2,000 bank, what would you do now after tapping out in two weeks?

As for your actual picks, I won't say too much about them. Any winning player can have a losing streak, you could very well be a good handicapper. It is really irrelevant in this case. To paraphrase something I read, you could have a handicapper who is so good he selects the winning horse 99% of the time. If, however, he bets 100% of his bankroll on every race, he will be a losing player.

I'm not some guy that just found a DRF laying on the street and decided to take up the game last week. I'm 38 and I've been betting horses for over 22 years. I'd like to think I've learned a thing or two in this time, and am trying to help you and whoever else might be interested in this thread save the trouble of some serious growing pains. One of the hardest things to learn in this game is to NOT overbet your bankroll.

So, there you have it, take it or leave it. I'm not out trying to be an asshole, I'm speaking from personal experience.

[Nikjak]

#12 at Philly race 2nd won: 5.60 3.60 2.80

Current 99.00
------------------
Next: Calder Race 4. 99.00 to place # 5

(no gimmicks yet)

[Nikjak]

Gij:
That said, here is why I am posting in this thread. First, I don't think making win bets of $200 is very smart if you only have a bankroll of "2,000 to 5,000". That is a huge range of a bankroll, so while $200 is too much for 2,000, it probably isn't too bad for 5,000, though I still think it is too high.

Once again, that can, only should be said, based upon an individual's personal records. I assume you know this for a fact as it may pertain to you. But your record cannot speak for all.


Am I right?

Yes, but only for you, and any others who have the same track records.



Well, definitely for $2,000, as your picks have proved.

My picks have "proved" nothing one way or the other as it applies to long term. Nothing. Long term is the key. I like to use poker analogies. For example, in a short run or term in poker, "luck" can play a major factor, going either way. But at the end of a long term, say a year, luck's importance is relative only to getting one's 'share'. Aside from that, it is the "skill" involved, as well as the mental stability of the investor--his discipline, his patience, his confidence.

You wind up doing things like betting $200 to place on 3-5 favorites as you did just trying to stay afloat.

No. That problem resides in the posting and going with whatever occurs. I never bet actual 3-5's.

If you really only had a 2,000 bank, what would you do now after tapping out in two weeks?

The same as any other setback. Revamp. Study. Analyse. Adjust. But, most important, persist.


As for your actual picks, I won't say too much about them.

Little bit of a problem is deciding what to post out of the multiple selections and potential investments. But go ahead, say what you wish (as you have). Doesn't matter.


I'm not some guy that just found a DRF laying on the street and decided to take up the game last week. I'm 38 and I've been betting horses for over 22 years. I'd like to think I've learned a thing or two in this time, and am trying to help you and whoever else might be interested in this thread save the trouble of some serious growing pains.

All well and good, and may have merit. But length of time does not, neccessarily, mean too much. I'm 25 years older, have been betting horses for 41 years, and have even written an article or two for the Handicapping section of the DRF. And one might say: "So?" It is, afterall, the demonstative success that must be displayed for credibility. You have decided, based upon the results so far, no credibility. I say, stay tuned.

I'm speaking from personal experience.

Aren't we all?

[cato]

If you look at any models regarding wagering, the concept of betting $200 a race with $2,000 bankroll is not a wise thing. Under any winning percentage that is humanly possible, your risk of ruin (tapping out) is almost 100%

If anyone has a copy of Mitchell's book on betting he has a bunch of examples and computer runs that back this up

Your statement that this betting game is a marathon not a sprint is exactly right and yet your appraoch to betting is just the reverse. Since it is a marathon you have to be able to stay in the game for the long term, and yet you are one bet away from tapping out. If you really thought it was a marathon you would bet accordingly instead of throwing caution to the wind.

If you had a bankroll of $5,000, a bet of $200 might be okay but only if you are making high percentage bets to cut down on the liklihoood of having a long run of losing bets. BUt as a general rule - and its different for everyone - many folks take the position that it is difficult to make much/any money in the long run betting low priced favorites.

Candidly your theory and your defending of it, in the face of proof and logic to the contrary reminds me of the black knight in Monty Python.

But, good luck. I hope you are profitable long term. You just need to locate another bankroll to find out.

Cato

[banacek]

If you look at any models regarding wagering, the concept of betting $200 a race with $2,000 bankroll is not a wise thing.

Depending on your style of play (e.g. I've had place bankrolls where I bet 10% successfully without much risk), I generally agree with you.

This reminds me of the story in one of Beyer's books about a guy who quit his job, took $2000 and decided to go pro. He make $200 win bets on spot plays. Before long he was up $4000 or something like that. Then he got confident and started playing races he shouldn't and started losing.

And we are back to discipline as a key element of winning.

[Nikjak]

Cato:

If you look at any models regarding wagering, the concept of betting $200 a race with $2,000 bankroll is not a wise thing. Under any winning percentage that is humanly possible, your risk of ruin (tapping out) is almost 100%

"Under any winning percentages"???? I guess I don't quite understand this pronouncement. Seems, also, that the "return" might play a major factor....

If anyone has a copy of Mitchell's book on betting he has a bunch of examples and computer runs that back this up

Again, based upon what? Whose selections? His?

Your statement that this betting game is a marathon not a sprint is exactly right and yet your appraoch to betting is just the reverse. Since it is a marathon you have to be able to stay in the game for the long term, and yet you are one bet away from tapping out. If you really thought it was a marathon you would bet accordingly instead of throwing caution to the wind.

Not exactly. One would, or should, bet what his or her history and studies have pointed them to. As a Mitchell has run studies, so then should the individual; then, base his actions upon his analyses of the personal studies.

If you had a bankroll of $5,000, a bet of $200 might be okay but only if you are making high percentage bets to cut down on the liklihoood of having a long run of losing bets.

Ideally, most bets should be considered "high percentage". When in doubt, stay out, is a good maxim.

BUt as a general rule - and its different for everyone - many folks take the position that it is difficult to make much/any money in the long run betting low priced favorites.

And, in general, low priced favorites are necessary.

Candidly your theory and your defending of it, in the face of proof and logic to the contrary reminds me of the black knight in Monty Python.

So far, I haven't exactly witnessed "proof and logic" to the contrary. As I said, to be continued. I think the best "proof and logic" will, and should, evolve from the continuing inspection.

But, good luck. I hope you are profitable long term. You just need to locate another bankroll to find out.

Well, still the 705.00 gimmick to work with; this is always the buffer...then, there is the "other" 3000.00; and then there is Vega711 faith investment....and there are about 19 days or so left this month.
I get some energy, I'll post more a more detailed synopsis of, I guess, a rather unique approach.

[Nikjak]

And, in general, low priced favorites are necessary.
----------------
Meant to say "aren't"
---------------------------------

While I'm here, might as well present the betting methods and/or the records that I keep. For each investment, this record:

Flat win: 200 unit
Flat place: 200 unit
Flat show: 200 unit
Flat win 200 place 400

5000.00 has ALWAYS been enough....and usually 2000.00 has sufficed. Often, a "good" beginning will nullify the bankroll angle, anyway...

(I never show, although there has always been a profit....and the one I like and use most is the win 200 place 400, since my history has shown that place has a high percentage, and the extra 200 can provide an actual profit, even though shaded by a nose...)

-------------
20% of bankroll progression; betting more when winning, less when losing. This is always on the win end.
-------------
Parlay 1/2/20% method, 20.00 units
Example (using 5-1 as base)
20 win at 5-1......100 profit going on next wager. If that wins at 5-1, 600 is the bankroll. Next bet would be 1/2 of 600, 300. If that wins, then 1500 on the next bet at 5-1. 9600 after four bets. This is when the 20% kicks in, but still using the 1/2 parlay method. 20% of 9600 would be 1920 which would go on the next wager, etc.....
I have two bankrolls, one for ALL odds, and for the 5-1 plus investments.
--------------
I'll be using the above when I continue tomorrow. The only way to corroborate or debunk an assertion (s) is to engage in a bona fide "inquiry"....
-------------

[cato]

I'm done. :bang:

I played longer than I shoud have becuase I was concerned that some newbie woudl read Nikjak's posts and think, "Hey! That's a great idea! Bet more,win more! What could be easier?"

More than anything bets shodld be based on a consideration of the size of bankroll, your edge and your risk tolerance.

Most people who have thought about this and run or studied simulations of a variity of combinations of win% and roi and who want to avoid going broke, have concluded that a bet somewhere between .05 -- 2% is something that allows one to stay alive in the game and grow a bankroll and not die of stress.

But others are free to disagree and/or simply take a morre aggressive approach.

Take care, Cato

[Nikjak]

[cato]I'm done. :bang:

I played longer than I shoud have becuase I was concerned that some newbie woudl read Nikjak's posts and think, "Hey! That's a great idea! Bet more,win more! What could be easier?"

I'm not sure it's "important" what a newbie thinks. What is important, maybe, is that the newbie have enough tolerance, curiosity, and patience to see what the final outcomes are. Then he can come to a conclusion based upon "inquiry".

More than anything bets shodld be based on a consideration of the size of bankroll, your edge and your risk tolerance.

Bets should be made based upon your studies. If those studies indicate a winning scenario with a 1% use of bankroll, then that's what is to be used--until refinement suggests otherwise. If that study indicates a use of 10% of the bankroll, then why not use 10%? It's all highly individual.

Most people who have thought about this and run or studied simulations of a variity of combinations of win% and roi and who want to avoid going broke, have concluded that a bet somewhere between .05 -- 2% is something that allows one to stay alive in the game and grow a bankroll and not die of stress.


I hope a newbie doesn't read the "die of stress" part. "Most" people who can't make a living from horses write books about it. I recall a sentence in a book, a Beyer book, stating that pace had nothing to do with the outcome of a race. Then, I read it again in another book of his, actually a 'mention' that he still maintained that idea as truth. So, the "most" usually can be taken with a dollop of salt.

But others are free to disagree and/or simply take a morre aggressive approach.

It's really whatever works for an individual.

[timtam]

I just can't comprehend all these so called experts who tell everybody

what to do , how to bet, etc. Most of these revolutionary writers get out

of the game and either drive a cab or teach a math class. Do they burn out

or tap out?? Yet I still see the same guys at the OTB night after night

pounding out tickets at the machines. :confused:

[Nikjak]

Start: 2000.00 Current: Tapped out

Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 705.00

----------------
Thistledown Race 1: 18.00 exacta 3-2
2.00 exacta 2-3

The caveats: Jockeys play musical horses in this race. Is it a jockey
choice? Or, are there commitments? In any event,
payoff probably not worth much for investment. Often,
too, in these circumstances, I go the wrong way....:)


*Philly Race 3: 100 win/place #1

[kenwoodallpromos]

At least you were nice enough to post results.

[Nikjak]

Philly Race 6: # 9 200 win

*Odds must be 9/2 or better....

[Nikjak]

Philly Race 6: # 9 200 win

*Odds must be 9/2 or better....


The above was scratched.
---------------
Next: Thistledown Race 8 100 w/p #5

[Nikjak]

The above was scratched.
---------------
Next: Thistledown Race 8 100 w/p #5


The above won: 7.00 3.40
----------------------
Next: Calder Race 11: 100 w/p #8
18.00 ex 8--9
2.00 ex 9--8

[Nikjak]

----------------------
Next: Calder Race 11: 100 w/p #8
18.00 ex 8--9
2.00 ex 9--8[/QUOTE]


The above, 8 OTM, the 9 won, no cigars.
--------------------------------------------
Wagering overview of Dec 12th, yesterday:

Win only: -200 +500 -200 Profit: +100
Place: -200 +140 -200 Profit: -260
Show: No investments
100/100 win/place: -200 +320 -200 -80


(My own investments: 200/400 win/place: -600 +780 -600 Profit: -420)

20% of 2000: -400 (1600) +800(2400) -480(1920) Status: 1920

20.00 units 1/2 parlay, all odds: -20 +50 parlayed (lost) Status: -20
5-1+ : -20 -20 Status: -40
-----------------------------------------------
Dec. 13th

Tampa Race 1: #6

Philly Race 3: #5

[Nikjak]

Tampa Race 5: #10 (must be 7-2 or better)

[BIG RED]

I got a bit lost on post #64, my fault. Is it now that you are using an odds-line because it has got down (bad streak) to recoup?

[Nikjak]

Tampa Race 5: #10 (must be 7-2 or better)


No bet on the above, the odds did not cooperate....ran 3rd.
-------------------------------------
Next: Tampa Race 9: #8 (must be 5-1 or better)

[Nikjak]

I got a bit lost on post #64, my fault. Is it now that you are using an odds-line because it has got down (bad streak) to recoup?


Makes two of us...:) Not sure exactly what you're asking?

[Nikjak]

Tampa Race 11: # 3 if 7-2 or better

[Buckeye]

Odds-lines are a good idea only if you're looking to improve an ROI within limits. For example, if your ROI is negative 20%, an odds-line most likely will not help enough.

Odds-lines can be your friend but only your database "knows for sure." :)

[freeneasy]

is this something you normally make money at or something your nik naking around with? but if you tap and you start over again then the new bankroll of $2000 would probably be better served if you added another $2000 in order to make a $4000 bankroll, lower your bet percent to 5 and still make the same $200 bets to get to 5 grand.

[Nikjak]

is this something you normally make money at or something your nik naking around with? but if you tap and you start over again then the new bankroll of $2000 would probably be better served if you added another $2000 in order to make a $4000 bankroll, lower your bet percent to 5 and still make the same $200 bets to get to 5 grand.


I've decided to make no "claims" other than what is presented. If I said I "make money", what would it be other than just an assertion? But if a daily log of selections, along with a few projected wagering patterns on those selections suggest a profit, then who can argue? Currently, for some understandable reasons (among them 'instant gratification) most have already written off the effort. But, I just continue to utter: "Stay tuned..."

[Nikjak]

Odds-lines are a good idea only if you're looking to improve an ROI within limits. For example, if your ROI is negative 20%, an odds-line most likely will not help enough.

Odds-lines can be your friend but only your database "knows for sure." :)


The last is the cogent statement, above and beyond all. But, I think I've emphasized one's own "database" or "records" as the critical barometer for most anything.

[Nikjak]

End of Dec 13, Day 13.


Start: 2000.00 Current: Tapped
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 683.80

Summary of various wagers: (after the tap out)

200.00 unit win bets: -500.00

200.00 unit place bets: -160.00

200.00 unit show bets: (no investments)

100.00 unit win/place: -330.00

(200/400.00 win/place: -820.00 ......this is the one I use, currently)

20% of 2000.00: Current: 984.00

20.00 unit 1/2 parlays (explanation in a previous post):

All odds: -80.00
5-1+: -60.00 .....I always use the 20.00 parlay method....
-----------------------------
17 days left in the month.....:)

[Nikjak]

Dec 14, day 14:


Calder Race 2: # 6 (must be 5-1 or better)

[BIG RED]

Makes two of us...:) Not sure exactly what you're asking?

What I meant was, Nikjak, when you began you didn't have any odds limits on your picks, but have noticed now that you do. Is this normal? That's why I asked, maybe that's how you re-coup losses?

[Nikjak]

What I meant was, Nikjak, when you began you didn't have any odds limits on your picks, but have noticed now that you do. Is this normal? That's why I asked, maybe that's how you re-coup losses?


It's "normal". As far as "re-couping", consistency and time are the cures....

[Nikjak]

Dec 14, day 14:


Calder Race 2: # 6 (must be 5-1 or better)


Got 7-1...OTM............
-------------------------------------------
Next: Calder Race 3: 10.00 exacta 2-7
10.00 Tri 2-7-5

Calder Race 3: # 2

[Nikjak]

Calder Race 3: # 2


The above won: 5.40 2.60
-------------------------------------------------

Dec 14:

Calder Race 6: # 6.....must be 2-1 or better

[Nikjak]

Dec 14:

Calder Race 6: # 6.....must be 2-1 or better

(Ran 2nd at even money....no investment)
----------------------------------------------

Next: Haw Race 4: # 4

[Nikjak]

Next: Haw Race 4: # 4

The above won: 4.40 3.00
----------------------------------

Next: Haw Race 6: #4

[Nikjak]

Next: Haw Race 6: #4

the above ran 4th
------------------------------------

Summary:

Start 2000.00 Current: Tapped
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 663.80
-----------------------------------
*After the "tapout":

Flat 200 win: -320.00
Flat 200 Place: -400.00
Flat 200 show: no investments

Flat 100 win/place: -360.00
Flat 200 win 400 place: -1120.00

20% of 2000.00 progression: Current: 1044.00

20.00 1/2 parlay ALL odds: -100.00
20.00 1/2 parlay 5-1+ -140.00

[hurrikane]

It's "normal". As far as "re-couping", consistency and time are the cures....

Consistancy and time cannot fix a negative expectation.

I'm guessing you are not really betting this money. Which makes all of this moot.

[Nikjak]

Consistancy and time cannot fix a negative expectation.

I'm guessing you are not really betting this money. Which makes all of this moot.


As to quote one: Who said it could?

As to quote two: Your "guess" has nothing to do with anything. My betting or not would have nothing to do with anything.

But, as I said, I use the 200/400, plus the 20.00 parlays....but, as I also said, so? It could, or could not be, assertions. The bottom lines are the selections and the outcomes of the matching wagering done with those selections. Shouldn't be that difficult to comprehend.

[Nikjak]

Calder Race 2: 10.00 exacta box 1--5

[Nikjak]

Calder Race 2: 10.00 exacta box 1--5
The above ran 2nd and 3rd...

-----------------------------
Calder Race 6: 20.00 exacta 5-7

[Nikjak]

Aqu Race 3: #2

[Nikjak]

Haw Race 1: 20.00 DD 6-4

[Nikjak]

Haw Race 2: 10.00 exacta 4--3 10.00 Tri 4-3-8

[Nikjak]

Summary:

Start 2000.00 Current: Tapped
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 583.80
-----------------------------------
*After the "tapout":

Flat 200 win: -520.00
Flat 200 Place: -600.00
Flat 200 show: no investments

Flat 100 win/place: -560.00
Flat 200 win 400 place: -1720.00

20% of 2000.00 progression: Current: 835.00

20.00 1/2 parlay ALL odds: -120.00
20.00 1/2 parlay 5-1+ -160.00

__________________

[Nikjak]

Dec 16....day 16:

LRL Race 2: #1 and/or #1a


Lad Race 1: #3


Haw Race 1: #4

[hurrikane]

As to quote one: Who said it could?

As to quote two: Your "guess" has nothing to do with anything. My betting or not would have nothing to do with anything.

[/b]

Anyone that says actually betting 600.00 on a race or pretending to bet 600.00 on a race has 'nothing to do with anything' should not be running a thread called 'How to make money'.

JMO
Good luck to you.

[Nikjak]

Anyone that says actually betting 600.00 on a race or pretending to bet 600.00 on a race has 'nothing to do with anything' should not be running a thread called 'How to make money'.

JMO
Good luck to you.


Thanks for the mixed messages. Your opinion may be valid once the dust settles.

600.00 too much? Really? Once upon a time, as I recall, .10 bought me a "Tarzan" comic book. Now? Maybe 15 times that would be needed, if not more. At this rate, a 20.00 bet way back when, would be about a 300.00 wager nowadays. All may be relative....

And, the dust hasn't settled.....

Opinions are good, but results--positive or negative--are better.

[Nikjak]

Dec 16....day 16:

LRL Race 2: #1 and/or #1a


Lad Race 1: #3


Haw Race 1: #4


All of the above won: Lrl 6.40 3.60
Lad 5.40 3.40
Haw 5.00 3.20

[Nikjak]

Summary:

Start 2000.00 Current: Tapped
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 583.80
-----------------------------------
*After the "tapout":

Flat 200 win: +560.00
Flat 200 Place: -180.00
Flat 200 show: no investments

Flat 100 win/place: +190.00
Flat 200 win 400 place: +200.00

20% of 2000.00 progression: Current: 1872.00

20.00 1/2 parlay ALL odds: -120.00 ...this is complicatd and I may not be able to explain properly. Today, 1st 20.00 bet won. The profit, 44, was parlayed on the next bet, which won, making 118 total. Then 1/2 of the 118, 59 was leveraged onto the next wager, which won. Total working bankroll, then, is 206. This is when 20% kicks in, tomorrow's first wager to be 41.00.
If that should win, then the profit would go on the next. If that should win, then back to the 20% of bankroll, etc....

20.00 1/2 parlay 5-1+: -160.00


__________________

[Nikjak]

Dec 17, day 17....


LAD Race 1: #5

[Nikjak]

Calder Race 4: 5.00 exacta 1,11 with 7
5.00 exacta box 1-11

[hurrikane]

Hey Nik,

I wasn't saying 600.00 was too much. What I was saying is there is a big difference between betting 600.00 and pretending to bet 600.00
You say there is not.

If you are not really betting why not just make them $2.00 win and $4.00 place. it's all monoply money anyway.

[cato]

THis is just goofy now. You tapped out. Everything but the exotic bets is bogus and you have no money to make the best because you tapped out. Case closed. Back to work for 6 months to save up a new bank roll

That's why you want to avoid gamler's ruin and not make outrageously sized bets copmpared to the size of your bankroll.

Let me rephrase..."duh"

Cato

[Nikjak]

Hey Nik,

I wasn't saying 600.00 was too much. What I was saying is there is a big difference between betting 600.00 and pretending to bet 600.00
You say there is not.

If you are not really betting why not just make them $2.00 win and $4.00 place. it's all monoply money anyway.


Again, whether I'm "really" betting or not, has no bearing on the results of any postings. I am betting, but when and how much is of no concern to anyone else. And, if I "said" I was doing this or that, so what? It would be "assertion".
YOU, and anyone else, can bet ANY amount you wish, or PRETEND to bet any amount you wish. The results will be what they are, good or bad, positive or negative. Get it?

[Nikjak]

THis is just goofy now. You tapped out. Everything but the exotic bets is bogus and you have no money to make the best because you tapped out. Case closed. Back to work for 6 months to save up a new bank roll

That's why you want to avoid gamler's ruin and not make outrageously sized bets copmpared to the size of your bankroll.

Let me rephrase..."duh"

Cato


See post 100. And I already covered this in a previous post. That's why the *. The 'bottom line' remains at the end of the month. What will that show the "max" that was needed? 2500? 3000? 4000? And the success of? Positive? Negative? Etc. Originally the premis was from 2000 to 5000..... So, "duh" away.....

[Nikjak]

Aqu Race 3: #5

[Nikjak]

Summary: Dec 17, day 17

Start 2000.00 Current: Tapped
Gimmicks: 1000.00 Current: 583.80......20.00 pending....
-----------------------------------
*After the "tapout":

Flat 200 win: +1100.00
Flat 200 Place: -140.00
Flat 200 show: no investments

Flat 100 win/place: +480.00
Flat 200 win 400 place: +820.00

20% of 2000.00 progression: Current: 2604.00

20.00 1/2 parlay ALL odds: -120.00 (started with 206, 41 invested won, but, that and the profit on next lost.....so, 165.00 working, a 33.00 first investment tomorrow, if winning, profit to be parlayed onto next investment....if winning 20% of total going on next, etc.
20.00 1/2 parlay 5-1+: -160.00

[Nikjak]

Gimmicks 1000.00 Current 563.00


Aqu Race 2: 2--5

[Nikjak]

Gimmicks 1000.00 Current 563.00


Aqu Race 2: 2--5


Make that: 20.00 exacta 2--5......Aqu Race 2

[Nikjak]

Dec 18.....day 18


Aqu Race 3: # 4

Philly Race 3: # 1

[Nikjak]

Dec 18, day 18:

Calder Race 4: #4

[clickety]

After studying racing off and on for several years, it has become my opinion that all the races are unpredictable random events. All of the data is completely meaningless to indicate which horse will win the next race, and since a very high (95%+) number of the horseplayers have lost all of their money by the end of the year, I suggest my case is proven; and the results of this exercise offer absolute proof. Actually the losses are somewhat higher as data costs and other expenses need to be added in. How about the value of one's time, which might be better spent at something else?

The entire exercise resembles a slot machine where live horses and riders are used instead of spinning wheels. Of course, it is a lot less expensive to run a slot machine than a racetrack.

Most computer programs will produce 3 or 4 horses at the top and one of these often wins unless it is an "unplayable" race. But WHICH ONE do we choose?

Or, given this fact, how can one produce a positive cash flow by betting 3 or 4 horses to win?
Perhaps some of the folks here can offer some suggestions.

Meanwhile, as another said, "Tapped out. $2000 lost [and gone to money heaven]. Back to work for six months to save up another bankroll." This is not much, but placing it in a good mutual fund would be more rewarding in the long run. Which fund(s)? The bible is Morningstar Mutual Funds, many libraries have it.

On the other hand, it is also said: "Never do anything while people are watching."

c.

[dav4463]

Man, what a downer! I was in the mood to handicap some races a while ago. Now I guess I'll just call it a night and go to bed !