betting on horse racing

[sly fox]

What are the 5 most important pieces of data about a horse race?

I ask because an old study shows that handicappers scored just as well
with 5 pieces of data as with 10,20 or 40 pieces of data.
Their accuracy rate did not improve, in fact as a group it went down slightly.


Sly Fox

[twindouble]

What are the 5 most important pieces of data about a horse race?

I ask because an old study shows that handicappers scored just as well
with 5 pieces of data as with 10,20 or 40 pieces of data.
Their accuracy rate did not improve, in fact as a group it went down slightly.


Sly Fox

There's no question in my mind that to much data will put you in the poor house. Not withstanding the fact that every individual has varied abilities to evaluate information, that's why some handicappers are better than others. Further more there's more that just 5 factors involved in any race and one could out way the other in terms of importance. If your looking for absulute rules to go by, there isn't any in my opinion. Basic rules, yes!

[kenwoodallpromos]

Race type, distance, and conditions; finish positions; trouble; individual fractional times, name of trainer.

[Overlay]

Early speed (Will the horse's running style get it in position to win?)

Overall speed (Is the horse competitive with the others in the race?)

Condition (Is the horse in sufficient shape to put forth a maximum effort?)

Class (Can the horse compete successfully against the caliber of competition it faces today?)

Jockey (Is the horse's rider assignment consistent with a maximum effort and a winning intent?)

[kitts]

Before interpreting 5 pieces of data, watch thousands of races and bet thousands of horses. Then you might know how you work and can determine what data you need for you.

[cnollfan]

1. Shape of the race, i.e. how do the horses' running styles complement each other?

2. Condition, i.e. is the horse improving or declining?

3. Is there a strong bias?

4. Does the type of race favor a particular type of horse, e.g. a maiden race and a race for multiple winners are different.

5. Odds. The most likely winner can be a poor bet and a less likely winner can be a good bet.

[shanta]

1 - Odds

2 - Track Bias or absence of one ( Aqu Inner for ex)

3 - Identifying "counter energy" runners ( Early/Late) for exacta wagers.Remember opposites DO attract.

4 - Fractional Times

5 - Making a determination on the favorite as being "legit" - "vulnerable" - "false"


Richie

[mcikey01]

I think we've overlooked : How does the horse fit the written race conditions?

[Vegas711]

The above ideas are GOOD.

I would suggest going in a single direction and breaking up this single factor into individual parts. If you take 1 single factor of handicapping and get into a great deal of depth you will uncover more profitable betting situations.

As an example Look at Pace handicapping. This is an area that still has many discoveries awaiting.

1. Running styles and Pace Pictures ( randys work.... Paceappraiser)

Many winners can be found just looking at running styles alone, There are more of these different stlyes than your E, EP P.PC',C these can be further broken down to more levels, Look at needed positions for 2nd call you may have a C at the firstcall but he is a E at the 2nd call.... Is the horse a velocity horse or a positional horse, Does he have different preffered stlyes for routes verse sprints, does he like the inside or the outside( some horses can't stand have a runner on their outside.

How many E horses can a horse put away.

Combining running styles with their needed velocity speeds, E horses the first 2 calls are everything,Pressers it is a combination of early, closers its their ability to overcome a given pace.

What is a good 3rd fraction, how does the slowness of the track play into its effect on different types of runners?

There is a great deal of depth you can get into on just one factor, Master it and you will do well.

[mainardi]

I was going to give you just five, but then I realized that by the time this thread, you'll be swimming in contradictory information. :confused:

If you're a newbie, you'd be better off finding some old classic books -- Quinn, Brohamer, Beyer are a good start -- and boning up on what they have to offer. After that, you can start handicapping on paper.

Regardless of what level you're at right now, you'll need to start tracking your race results, because what works for me may not necessarily work for you. I use software that combines many factors, and produces not only details for each factor, but a concise summary as well. If you insist on only five, here's the top 5, in no particular order: speed (fractions and final times), final position, trip (aka pace), class, horse's in-money ratio.

[midnight]

The five factors that are most important are the five that are most relevant to an individual race. That varies from race to race, and to use five rigidly over all races isn't going to work, in my opinion.

[Overlay]

I omitted odds from my list, since my assessment of fair odds for a horse or field would be a product of the performance factors I mentioned. But I should have added that value is the final determinant of whether I bet a horse or combination.

[twindouble]

The five factors that are most important are the five that are most relevant to an individual race. That varies from race to race, and to use five rigidly over all races isn't going to work, in my opinion.



That's an excellent opinion. Like most players they are looking for those magic bullets. When it comes to angles they do exist and so do basic handicapping principles that can have more weight in any given race or many more races. Take Boxcars post on turf races finding long shots, spot players will wait for those conditions to evolve, so one can't discredit his method by saying it's a pure angle because it encompassed other factors. I just except it as good handicapping.

This thread took the course I figured it would, there's more than 5 basic handicapping principles mentioned and there may be more before all is said and done. In essence I handicapped the handicappers. :cool:

What I think would be more beneficial is taking a race now and then from different tracks, different classes and let the handicappers break it down, in other words see how each looks at the races and how they arrive at that final decision. Then apply their own wagering strategy, that would be very interesting indeed. I'm only talking one race a week because we all know time is of the essence and we have our own tracks to concentrate on. Any handicapper could just pass on the race if they don't like the conditions but give reasons. So, it's no contest to speak of and one race wouldn't reflect on anyone's ability as a player but it would put some meat to what we talk about. Maybe P.A. would pick the race of the week to get the variety I'm suggesting.

Good luck,

T.D.

[BetHorses!]

1 - Odds

2 - Track Bias or absence of one ( Aqu Inner for ex)

3 - Identifying "counter energy" runners ( Early/Late) for exacta wagers.Remember opposites DO attract.

4 - Fractional Times

5 - Making a determination on the favorite as being "legit" - "vulnerable" - "false"


Richie

I couldn't have said it better myself. I strongly agree with the above and if I had to single out the most important for me, it would be odds

[orlando]

Lets try by steps. 1-Early Speed

2-Speed

3-Form

4-Class

5-Recency

I think a good start! It seem to keep one in order.Maybe a ranking method to
keep ones head on straight. hope it helps?