Attack the whole card

[dav4463]

I've noticed that there are certain "types" of horses that win every day at every track. If you can narrow down these "types" and bet the right ones you will have a pretty good spot play method. You have to analyze the entire race card and then go back and decide who your best plays should be. For example, you could pick 8 horses that fit the following requirements and use them as your key horses. This is off the top of my head, but there are plenty of winners every day that come from these specific groups:

Best Last Race Beyer: pick your most likely winner and pick your Best Last Race Beyer that should show the most value...... 2 horses total

Do the same thing with 2nd best Last Race Beyer. Now you have four horses to watch....

Next, Pick your most likely winner that doesn't rank in the top four Best Last Race Beyer. This should be a pricey horse that you give a chance to win.

Most likely winner with declining speed figures + a signficant class drop

Most likely winner with improving figures rising in class today.

Best Trainer/Jockey combo with best chance to win today.

Also, look for best Lone Speed or Lone closer.....as extra possible plays for the day.


Just an example to come up with eight or more spot plays, some horses may come from the same race, in that case, you have to make a decision who to back.

Anyway, does anyone else have any ideas on how to approach an entire race card as a whole and then finding the spot plays ahead of time?

I know it's a weird post, but I do have a train of thought working here !

[GaryG]

Dave, for an entire card that obviously encompasses many different types of races the only factor I can see would be the trainer/jockey combos, maybe supplemented by trainer patterns. For instance, in Chicago Catalano and Campbell are winning at close to a 50% clip. Too bad about the Meche twins, have you heard anything lately about Donnie?

[twindouble]

Dave, settle down here, your not in a battle to attack anything. Look at the card like it's a buffet, you can either end up with steak and shrip or mac and cheese.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Doesn't this imply you have to consider many more variables also?
When considering the total card, does that include probable variant and track bias; "streaks"; overall quality (class or purse level) of the day's races?

[Nickle]

Anyone betting more than 3 races per day on average is just asking for trouble, not the way to go. It is hard enough finding one solid pick per day. We all get caught up in the action and falling in love with way too many races.

[dav4463]

I was kind of looking at a race card as one whole entity. The card will most likely have two or three Best Last Race Beyer horses that will win today. The trick is to determine which ones are in the best position to win today. You know that the top jockey or trainer will win at least once that day also. You can also expect a back speed threat with poor recent races to win at a price. It also happens most days at least once. If you can put horses into their categories and determine which ones are most likely today; it is a possible way of putting together some solid spot plays.

[dav4463]

Anyone betting more than 3 races per day on average is just asking for trouble, not the way to go. It is hard enough finding one solid pick per day. We all get caught up in the action and falling in love with way too many races.

The trouble is most of my best wins are longshots and I have to play more races because I don't know when the value horse is going to pop up. Also my better races are usually the ones I don't have as strong a feeling about. Why, I don't know !

[kenwoodallpromos]

Many pop ups happen when the races are most unpredictable. Long cheap races where no contenders want to set the pace or they end up fading. Try to notice when your longshots are in against favs who only win with better-than-par times or are sprinters stretching out and are still favored.